Boris Johnson- Prime Minister (Vol. 2)

Boris Johnson- Prime Minister (Vol. 2)

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OzzyR1

3,975 posts

179 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
In my opinion, the biggest question now is whether Boris has got the backing of enough Brexit supporters through his recent actions to persuade them to vote Conservative rather than Farage in any upcoming election.

Going to be a big ask in some Northern constituencies where the default is "Vote Labour". Can see them maybe shunning Corbyn and voting Brexit but backing the Tories might be too big an ask.

Any people up North who can offer an subjective opinion?

Edited by OzzyR1 on Wednesday 23 October 00:15

Tony427

2,245 posts

180 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
OzzyR1 said:
In my opinion, the biggest question now is whether Boris has got the backing of enough Brexit supporters through his recent actions to persuade them to vote Conservative rather than Farage in any upcoming election.

Going to be a big ask in some Northern constituencies where the default is "Vote Labour". Can see them maybe shunning Corbyn and voting Brexit but backing the Tories might be too big an ask.

Any people up North who can offer an subjective opinion?

Edited by OzzyR1 on Wednesday 23 October 00:15
It entirely depends on whether Boris wants to bury Labour but have Farage like a parrot on his shoulder , or if he feels that he can get a big enough majority without TBP.

That is a very difficult call.

I lived in Wigan but went to school in St Helens and my family still live up there and until they retired owned a pub.

My suggestion is that I would let TBP do the heavy lifting in the Northern constituencies.

Many voters in the North would abandon Labour but wouldn't feel able to vote Tory. So give them an acceptable alternative.



OzzyR1

3,975 posts

179 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
Tony427 said:
OzzyR1 said:
In my opinion, the biggest question now is whether Boris has got the backing of enough Brexit supporters through his recent actions to persuade them to vote Conservative rather than Farage in any upcoming election.

Going to be a big ask in some Northern constituencies where the default is "Vote Labour". Can see them maybe shunning Corbyn and voting Brexit but backing the Tories might be too big an ask.

Any people up North who can offer an subjective opinion?

Edited by OzzyR1 on Wednesday 23 October 00:15
It entirely depends on whether Boris wants to bury Labour but have Farage like a parrot on his shoulder , or if he feels that he can get a big enough majority without TBP.

That is a very difficult call.

I lived in Wigan but went to school in St Helens and my family still live up there and until they retired owned a pub.

My suggestion is that I would let TBP do the heavy lifting in the Northern constituencies.

Many voters in the North would abandon Labour but wouldn't feel able to vote Tory. So give them an acceptable alternative.

My gut agrees with your logic - for quite a few folks asking them to vote Tory after a lifetime of Labour would be a step too far, despite their opinions on the EU.

Problem is that I think any vote for the Brexit Party will dilute the Conservatives more than any other party.

In the event of having to form a coalition, I can't see the more moderate Tories getting into bed with what is essentially UKIP-lite - for good reason.

As I said, think it will be interesting.

Tony427

2,245 posts

180 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
OzzyR1 said:
Tony427 said:
OzzyR1 said:
In my opinion, the biggest question now is whether Boris has got the backing of enough Brexit supporters through his recent actions to persuade them to vote Conservative rather than Farage in any upcoming election.

Going to be a big ask in some Northern constituencies where the default is "Vote Labour". Can see them maybe shunning Corbyn and voting Brexit but backing the Tories might be too big an ask.

Any people up North who can offer an subjective opinion?

Edited by OzzyR1 on Wednesday 23 October 00:15
It entirely depends on whether Boris wants to bury Labour but have Farage like a parrot on his shoulder , or if he feels that he can get a big enough majority without TBP.

That is a very difficult call.

I lived in Wigan but went to school in St Helens and my family still live up there and until they retired owned a pub.

My suggestion is that I would let TBP do the heavy lifting in the Northern constituencies.

Many voters in the North would abandon Labour but wouldn't feel able to vote Tory. So give them an acceptable alternative.

My gut agrees with your logic - for quite a few folks asking them to vote Tory after a lifetime of Labour would be a step too far, despite their opinions on the EU.

Problem is that I think any vote for the Brexit Party will dilute the Conservatives more than any other party.

In the event of having to form a coalition, I can't see the more moderate Tories getting into bed with what is essentially UKIP-lite - for good reason.

As I said, think it will be interesting.
Look at Peterborough and Radnor. A coalition between TBP and Conservatives would have netted one MP each. Instead the LD and Labour got the seats. Stupid.


OzzyR1

3,975 posts

179 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
Tony427 said:
Look at Peterborough and Radnor. A coalition between TBP and Conservatives would have netted one MP each. Instead the LD and Labour got the seats. Stupid.
Don't disagree with you but can't see it happening.



JagLover

26,891 posts

182 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
Art0ir said:
AW111 said:
I note that as expected, the rabid "May's WA was not really brexit" have fallen over themselves praising Boris' rehash of the same deal.
Leave customs union
Leave single market
No backstop

They were the primary killers of Mays deal if I’m not mistaken.
thumbup

I suspect those saying such nonsense never understood why people were so angry with May's deal to start with.

JagLover

26,891 posts

182 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
Tony427 said:
It entirely depends on whether Boris wants to bury Labour but have Farage like a parrot on his shoulder , or if he feels that he can get a big enough majority without TBP.

That is a very difficult call.

I lived in Wigan but went to school in St Helens and my family still live up there and until they retired owned a pub.

My suggestion is that I would let TBP do the heavy lifting in the Northern constituencies.

Many voters in the North would abandon Labour but wouldn't feel able to vote Tory. So give them an acceptable alternative.
It also assumes this is only about one election.

The Tories are going to be losing seats in London and the south-east regardless of Brexit, the changing political landscape and demographic changes make that almost inevitable. In order to remain the party of government then they need to pick up seats elsewhere, them, not TBP.

They want to remove TBP from the scene not do deals with them and it will no doubt be a long hard slog in many northern constituencies. Perhaps become competitive one election, get a larger local base with more councillors, then try again at another for a number of those seats and hope to pick up just enough this time round in order to get a slim majority.

Elysium

4,173 posts

134 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
Just reading the Times this morning and I see that Javid is already rowing back on the commitment to adjust the thresholds for higher and additional rate tax.

It’s no surprise as it seemed obvious that this was designed to appeal to Conservative party members to encourage them to put Johnson into office.

Just one of many lies and broken promises.

Stay in Bed Instead

17,560 posts

104 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
Elysium said:
Just reading the Times this morning and I see that Javid is already rowing back on then promise to adjust the thresholds for higher and additional rate tax.

It’s no surprise as it seemed obvious that this was designed to appeal to Conservative party members to encourage them to put Johnson into office.

Just one of many lies and broken promises.
bds!

Is he proposing any increase?

Escort3500

5,467 posts

92 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
Derek Smith said:
Gargamel said:
All fair comment, I think most politicians are trying to get elected, it is kind of the job. The current HoC isn’t exactly overburdened with high minded principled individuals.

There seems to be a lot of vitriol for BJ, and I am not sure exactly why, the whole situation is a buggers muddle. I guess there is a sense of rhetoric meets reality with Boris, but I kind of factor that in.
Is it possible that you are conflating two separate circumstances?

How Johnson is running brexit is one aspect. The other is the person himself.

All ambitious politicians are untrustworthy; some more than others. Johonson, however, takes it to a level below any that I've known. His whole history is one of dishonesty. The touting for someone to beat another, but not too badly, just enough to hurt him, should have been enough exclude him from politics, let alone the tory party. He's Jeffrey Archer, ironically more of a clown, but worse. Johnson is dangerous.

With his proven history, I refuse to put any trust in him. He's duplicitous. What you see is not what you get. He's taking us along a path for his own selfish reasons.

I'm more or less happy with the WA, apart from leaving NI in the CU. That said, given the nature of the agreement, and the businesses that pay for the tory party, one might assume the rest of the UK will be in the CU within 5 years. It's what I want.
This effectively reflects my view. Even amongst the self-serving, unprincipled and dishonest MPs that typify the HoC at present, Johnson takes it to a whole new (low) level. His amoral political views and actions are consistent with his track record for lying and misleading in order to get what he wants (which doesn’t always accord with what his party or the electorate want). I can’t think of a Tory politician now, or in the past, that is as untrustworthy as Johnson. That said, there are few if any obvious successors to him in his party that would be much better, which says a lot. The way Brexit has been conducted (on all sides) leaves the country in disarray and ordinary people at each other’s throats.

PositronicRay

16,875 posts

130 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
OzzyR1 said:
Tony427 said:
OzzyR1 said:
In my opinion, the biggest question now is whether Boris has got the backing of enough Brexit supporters through his recent actions to persuade them to vote Conservative rather than Farage in any upcoming election.

Going to be a big ask in some Northern constituencies where the default is "Vote Labour". Can see them maybe shunning Corbyn and voting Brexit but backing the Tories might be too big an ask.

Any people up North who can offer an subjective opinion?

Edited by OzzyR1 on Wednesday 23 October 00:15
It entirely depends on whether Boris wants to bury Labour but have Farage like a parrot on his shoulder , or if he feels that he can get a big enough majority without TBP.

That is a very difficult call.

I lived in Wigan but went to school in St Helens and my family still live up there and until they retired owned a pub.

My suggestion is that I would let TBP do the heavy lifting in the Northern constituencies.

Many voters in the North would abandon Labour but wouldn't feel able to vote Tory. So give them an acceptable alternative.

My gut agrees with your logic - for quite a few folks asking them to vote Tory after a lifetime of Labour would be a step too far, despite their opinions on the EU.

Problem is that I think any vote for the Brexit Party will dilute the Conservatives more than any other party.

In the event of having to form a coalition, I can't see the more moderate Tories getting into bed with what is essentially UKIP-lite - for good reason.

As I said, think it will be interesting.
+ Cummings

A brexit party/con coalition would be funny/awful in so many ways. Nigel would do the DUP job of holding them to ransom, and we'd still be stuck in limbo. Cummings would lose his grip, and tear his hair out.

Edited by PositronicRay on Wednesday 23 October 08:08

Murph7355

23,375 posts

203 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
OzzyR1 said:
....
In the event of having to form a coalition, I can't see the more moderate Tories getting into bed with what is essentially UKIP-lite - for good reason....
In the event of a need for coalition, what options will any Tories have?

Labour? Nope.

LibDems? Nope.

SNP? Can't see it.

There are undoubtedly major issues with getting into bed with TBP in a similar way to the DUP s&c fiasco. But there may not be a choice if they want to be in power - and one that is one thing they all want.

PositronicRay

16,875 posts

130 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
OzzyR1 said:
....
In the event of having to form a coalition, I can't see the more moderate Tories getting into bed with what is essentially UKIP-lite - for good reason....
In the event of a need for coalition, what options will any Tories have?

Labour? Nope.

LibDems? Nope.

SNP? Can't see it.

There are undoubtedly major issues with getting into bed with TBP in a similar way to the DUP s&c fiasco. But there may not be a choice if they want to be in power - and one that is one thing they all want.
Sounds like a good option for revoke UK, they'll never play nicely.

PositronicRay

16,875 posts

130 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
As an aside are the tories, or any of the political parties, in sound enough financial shape to fight an effective election campaign?

Bill

40,046 posts

202 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
There are undoubtedly major issues with getting into bed with TBP in a similar way to the DUP s&c fiasco. But there may not be a choice if they want to be in power - and one that is one thing they all want.
They'll need to get into bed with TBP before the election in order to stop them splitting the vote and that'll turn off a lot of moderate Tories.

The only way I can see it working is if TBP unilaterally decide not to go up against leave Tories and hope to be thrown some crumbs after the election.

PositronicRay

16,875 posts

130 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
Bill said:
The only way I can see it working is if TBP unilaterally decide not to go up against leave Tories and hope to be thrown some crumbs after the election.
I can't see that, they don't need or want crumbs. The brexit party want glory, then fold.

A kind of do and die.

Alpinestars

13,031 posts

191 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
We now have Farage calling Bojo a liar.

Going to be a fascinating few months.

Escort3500

5,467 posts

92 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
Alpinestars said:
We now have Farage calling Bojo a liar.

Going to be a fascinating few months.
Ooh, the irony hehe

Breadvan72

33,206 posts

110 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
Alpinestars said:
... Farage calling Bojo a liar.

...
Maybe the first time in ages that Farage has said something that is not a fib!

Bussolini

6,210 posts

32 months

Wednesday 23rd October
quotequote all
Away from Brexit for the moment, how do the Tory faithful feel about the Chancellor's comments on his impending budget?

From the FT:

“A perfect storm is brewing for next year’s deficit — even if a Brexit deal is passed,” said George Buckley, economist at Nomura. He noted that the deficit was already rising, a weakening economy would widen it further, the chancellor had already announced a significant increase in spending and the budget was yet to come."

So Boris' tax cuts were a lie, and the Tories are basically bribing the electorate with Labour-esque public spending and debt increases.



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