How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)
Discussion
frisbee said:
48% are quite happy with what we have now.
So we are going to do everything we can to f
k Brexit it up for you (although to be fair you are doing a far better job of that than we could ever hope to do
).
Screw it, I have the luxury of not being British so: Let the UK burn!
I recall that the Remain side pre ref weren't enthusiastic about "what we have now", but instead arguing that it was better to reform from within... So we are going to do everything we can to f
k Brexit it up for you (although to be fair you are doing a far better job of that than we could ever hope to do).Screw it, I have the luxury of not being British so: Let the UK burn!
That was the over riding theme, along with how risky they thought leaving was. Very few were saying they were truly satisfied with the then status quo.
It seems another government document has turned up confirming there will be checks for goods crossing the NI/rUK border and we are not likely to be ready by end 2020.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50711868
I wonder who is right the liar or the civil service?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50711868
I wonder who is right the liar or the civil service?
bhstewie said:
One thing I do find intriguing. hstewie said:Coveney, whilst disagreeing with Johnson, does explicitly state that he expects NI firms exporting to mainland GB to have to do virtually nothing. Which is pretty much exactly what the leaked CS report stated.
Yet the civil service report also claims 98% of NI exporting businesses wouldn't be able to cope "with the extra costs".
It doesn't add up...
Sway said:
bhstewie said:
One thing I do find intriguing. hstewie said:Coveney, whilst disagreeing with Johnson, does explicitly state that he expects NI firms exporting to mainland GB to have to do virtually nothing. Which is pretty much exactly what the leaked CS report stated.
Yet the civil service report also claims 98% of NI exporting businesses wouldn't be able to cope "with the extra costs".
It doesn't add up...
If UK stays closely aligned then what Boris and Coveney are saying is right - its not a big deal and the civil service are wrong.
The issue being - Boris is talking out of both sides of his mouth. The principle discussions with Ireland back before the WA was done were likely based on UK and EU close alignment. But across the water in GB, the story being told is a little different.
'Free from the EU shackles, getting Brexit done, getting sovereignty back, great trade deals with the world incoming.....' - basically describing a not so close alignment with the EU.
Katya Adler summary here is good:
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/120397593...
Sway said:
One thing I do find intriguing.
Coveney, whilst disagreeing with Johnson, does explicitly state that he expects NI firms exporting to mainland GB to have to do virtually nothing. Which is pretty much exactly what the leaked CS report stated.
Yet the civil service report also claims 98% of NI exporting businesses wouldn't be able to cope "with the extra costs".
It doesn't add up...
He expects they will have to complete an export declaration. HMRC suggested costs for that, which the civil service scaled up and suggested would be onerous to small businesses, which make up most of the businesses that move stuff into GB from NI.Coveney, whilst disagreeing with Johnson, does explicitly state that he expects NI firms exporting to mainland GB to have to do virtually nothing. Which is pretty much exactly what the leaked CS report stated.
Yet the civil service report also claims 98% of NI exporting businesses wouldn't be able to cope "with the extra costs".
It doesn't add up...
Not sure what is not adding up there, aside from the assumptions HMRC may have made about the expense of an export declaration, which I guess are perfectly arguable.
The main point is that the Treasury, DexEU, HMRC and Coveney all state one thing (export declarations will be required) and Boris point blank says another (no export declarations will be required).
It is clear that Boris is lying, and is a serial liar, but lots of people on this forum seem to think this in any way impacts on his ability to be Prime Minister.
mattmurdock said:
Sway said:
One thing I do find intriguing.
Coveney, whilst disagreeing with Johnson, does explicitly state that he expects NI firms exporting to mainland GB to have to do virtually nothing. Which is pretty much exactly what the leaked CS report stated.
Yet the civil service report also claims 98% of NI exporting businesses wouldn't be able to cope "with the extra costs".
It doesn't add up...
He expects they will have to complete an export declaration. HMRC suggested costs for that, which the civil service scaled up and suggested would be onerous to small businesses, which make up most of the businesses that move stuff into GB from NI.Coveney, whilst disagreeing with Johnson, does explicitly state that he expects NI firms exporting to mainland GB to have to do virtually nothing. Which is pretty much exactly what the leaked CS report stated.
Yet the civil service report also claims 98% of NI exporting businesses wouldn't be able to cope "with the extra costs".
It doesn't add up...
Not sure what is not adding up there, aside from the assumptions HMRC may have made about the expense of an export declaration, which I guess are perfectly arguable.
The main point is that the Treasury, DexEU, HMRC and Coveney all state one thing (export declarations will be required) and Boris point blank says another (no export declarations will be required).
It is clear that Boris is lying, and is a serial liar, but lots of people on this forum seem to think this in any way impacts on his ability to be Prime Minister.
As someone very familiar with the rules, and processes, over multiple jurisdictions - 98% being unable to cope is utter bulls
t. We handle over 15k declarations, across multiple jurisdictions - and covering restricted commodities shipped under AEO approvals/processes. Two staff, part time.
If it takes a multinational manufacturing business turning over nearly a billion needs fewer than two full time staff (and shipping staggeringly complex stuff like pressure vessels/hi capacity batteries/restricted hardware) what possible mechanism is there for such difficulties for SMEs?
Sway said:
What's really being missed, is that nothing new is needed for a "customs declaration" than is needed to load a consignment onto a ferry or plane...
As someone very familiar with the rules, and processes, over multiple jurisdictions - 98% being unable to cope is utter bullst.
We handle over 15k declarations, across multiple jurisdictions - and covering restricted commodities shipped under AEO approvals/processes. Two staff, part time.
If it takes a multinational manufacturing business turning over nearly a billion needs fewer than two full time staff (and shipping staggeringly complex stuff like pressure vessels/hi capacity batteries/restricted hardware) what possible mechanism is there for such difficulties for SMEs?
Just because you think it's easy doesn't mean the NI small business will.As someone very familiar with the rules, and processes, over multiple jurisdictions - 98% being unable to cope is utter bulls
t. We handle over 15k declarations, across multiple jurisdictions - and covering restricted commodities shipped under AEO approvals/processes. Two staff, part time.
If it takes a multinational manufacturing business turning over nearly a billion needs fewer than two full time staff (and shipping staggeringly complex stuff like pressure vessels/hi capacity batteries/restricted hardware) what possible mechanism is there for such difficulties for SMEs?
I never cease to be amased how utterly stupid some business owners are ...
Sway said:
What's really being missed, is that nothing new is needed for a "customs declaration" than is needed to load a consignment onto a ferry or plane...
As someone very familiar with the rules, and processes, over multiple jurisdictions - 98% being unable to cope is utter bullst.
We handle over 15k declarations, across multiple jurisdictions - and covering restricted commodities shipped under AEO approvals/processes. Two staff, part time.
If it takes a multinational manufacturing business turning over nearly a billion needs fewer than two full time staff (and shipping staggeringly complex stuff like pressure vessels/hi capacity batteries/restricted hardware) what possible mechanism is there for such difficulties for SMEs?
So taking you at your word, and assuming around 250 working days a year and 80% of 2 people, your business is handling an average of 38 declarations per man day.As someone very familiar with the rules, and processes, over multiple jurisdictions - 98% being unable to cope is utter bulls
t. We handle over 15k declarations, across multiple jurisdictions - and covering restricted commodities shipped under AEO approvals/processes. Two staff, part time.
If it takes a multinational manufacturing business turning over nearly a billion needs fewer than two full time staff (and shipping staggeringly complex stuff like pressure vessels/hi capacity batteries/restricted hardware) what possible mechanism is there for such difficulties for SMEs?
I assume also that the business has systems in place to automate a lot of the information, and you are not manually writing out the export declarations by hand.
Now obviously I don't have any figures for the average number of export declarations a NI SME may need to do to GB, as no-one currently tracks those numbers. If they are needing say even a 10th of your numbers, that is 1,500 per year, and assuming they are magically as efficient as your team are, despite not having to do this before, they still need to devote over an hour a day of someones time to do this, or pay someone to outsource it. That is an effective hit on productivity, or another expense.
HMRC figures are provided for outsourcing companies, suggesting £30 or so per declaration. Or £15.60 average for someone's time assuming it takes an hour or so a day.
Even on those rough numbers, that is still an additional cost which doesn't currently exist in these businesses, and for those in relatively low margin industries may be an excessive burden.
Pan Pan Pan said:
People seem to be forgetting the massive increase in costs for businesses in dealing with the EU`s red tape. Any increased costs from leaving the EU, will be offset by not having to deal with the mountains of red tape loaded onto businesses by the EU.
False.There will be more red tape under Johnson’s deal.
"No Checks" gets even weirder 
The shipping industry is drawing up plans for EU border checks in Britain for trade bound for Northern Ireland
The shipping industry is drawing up plans for EU border checks in Britain for trade bound for Northern Ireland
DeepEnd said:
Pan Pan Pan said:
People seem to be forgetting the massive increase in costs for businesses in dealing with the EU`s red tape. Any increased costs from leaving the EU, will be offset by not having to deal with the mountains of red tape loaded onto businesses by the EU.
False.There will be more red tape under Johnson’s deal.
mattmurdock said:
Sway said:
What's really being missed, is that nothing new is needed for a "customs declaration" than is needed to load a consignment onto a ferry or plane...
As someone very familiar with the rules, and processes, over multiple jurisdictions - 98% being unable to cope is utter bullst.
We handle over 15k declarations, across multiple jurisdictions - and covering restricted commodities shipped under AEO approvals/processes. Two staff, part time.
If it takes a multinational manufacturing business turning over nearly a billion needs fewer than two full time staff (and shipping staggeringly complex stuff like pressure vessels/hi capacity batteries/restricted hardware) what possible mechanism is there for such difficulties for SMEs?
So taking you at your word, and assuming around 250 working days a year and 80% of 2 people, your business is handling an average of 38 declarations per man day.As someone very familiar with the rules, and processes, over multiple jurisdictions - 98% being unable to cope is utter bulls
t. We handle over 15k declarations, across multiple jurisdictions - and covering restricted commodities shipped under AEO approvals/processes. Two staff, part time.
If it takes a multinational manufacturing business turning over nearly a billion needs fewer than two full time staff (and shipping staggeringly complex stuff like pressure vessels/hi capacity batteries/restricted hardware) what possible mechanism is there for such difficulties for SMEs?
I assume also that the business has systems in place to automate a lot of the information, and you are not manually writing out the export declarations by hand.
Now obviously I don't have any figures for the average number of export declarations a NI SME may need to do to GB, as no-one currently tracks those numbers. If they are needing say even a 10th of your numbers, that is 1,500 per year, and assuming they are magically as efficient as your team are, despite not having to do this before, they still need to devote over an hour a day of someones time to do this, or pay someone to outsource it. That is an effective hit on productivity, or another expense.
HMRC figures are provided for outsourcing companies, suggesting £30 or so per declaration. Or £15.60 average for someone's time assuming it takes an hour or so a day.
Even on those rough numbers, that is still an additional cost which doesn't currently exist in these businesses, and for those in relatively low margin industries may be an excessive burden.
To suggest that 98% of already exporting NI businesses would struggle with this, seems a tad excessive.
DeepEnd said:
Pan Pan Pan said:
People seem to be forgetting the massive increase in costs for businesses in dealing with the EU`s red tape. Any increased costs from leaving the EU, will be offset by not having to deal with the mountains of red tape loaded onto businesses by the EU.
False.There will be more red tape under Johnson’s deal.
DeepEnd said:
Pan Pan Pan said:
People seem to be forgetting the massive increase in costs for businesses in dealing with the EU`s red tape. Any increased costs from leaving the EU, will be offset by not having to deal with the mountains of red tape loaded onto businesses by the EU.
False.There will be more red tape under Johnson’s deal.
I clearly remember the complaints made by UK businesses about the costs of dealing with all the red tape they were having to deal with from the EU.
Dont like rolls said:
DeepEnd said:
Pan Pan Pan said:
People seem to be forgetting the massive increase in costs for businesses in dealing with the EU`s red tape. Any increased costs from leaving the EU, will be offset by not having to deal with the mountains of red tape loaded onto businesses by the EU.
False.There will be more red tape under Johnson’s deal.
“not what he said?” - you mean Johnson? hahahaha
He is a liar you know, have you not noticed?
Sway said:
DeepEnd said:
Pan Pan Pan said:
People seem to be forgetting the massive increase in costs for businesses in dealing with the EU`s red tape. Any increased costs from leaving the EU, will be offset by not having to deal with the mountains of red tape loaded onto businesses by the EU.
False.There will be more red tape under Johnson’s deal.
To say there will be less is just wrong, wrong, wrong.
DeepEnd said:
Sway said:
DeepEnd said:
Pan Pan Pan said:
People seem to be forgetting the massive increase in costs for businesses in dealing with the EU`s red tape. Any increased costs from leaving the EU, will be offset by not having to deal with the mountains of red tape loaded onto businesses by the EU.
False.There will be more red tape under Johnson’s deal.
To say there will be less is just wrong, wrong, wrong.
Handling VAT declarations within the EU is a proper, proper ballache - with plenty of opportunity for error leading to severe outcomes.
Removing that, and replacing with very straightforward online declarations (ones already done when sending a container), is not a net increase in "red tape".
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