How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)
Discussion
DeepEnd said:
Tuna said:
Silly claims that Brexit will be either a disaster or softer than the softest puppy (both "wins" for people opposed to it), based on the fear of change.
There are of course many leavers who actually "hanker back to simpler times" (pre-changes they clearly can't it seem cope with) and being against immigration is fundamentally a fear of change position. 
How many do you call many DeepEnd ?Crackie said:
DeepEnd said:
Tuna said:
Silly claims that Brexit will be either a disaster or softer than the softest puppy (both "wins" for people opposed to it), based on the fear of change.
There are of course many leavers who actually "hanker back to simpler times" (pre-changes they clearly can't it seem cope with) and being against immigration is fundamentally a fear of change position. How many do you call many DeepEnd ?catweasle said:
Crackie said:
DeepEnd said:
Tuna said:
Silly claims that Brexit will be either a disaster or softer than the softest puppy (both "wins" for people opposed to it), based on the fear of change.
There are of course many leavers who actually "hanker back to simpler times" (pre-changes they clearly can't it seem cope with) and being against immigration is fundamentally a fear of change position. How many do you call many DeepEnd ?DeepEnd said:
And when asked for links to Carney making positive predictions (he's on record saying the deal is not as good for the economy as Mays, albeit it's better than no deal), we get the well worn "no one can predict the future!".
Which is it - "we've proved it's going to be great on these pages many times" or "we can't possibly know?"
Go back to the day I posted it, or search it was in the Telegraph coupled with the L&G bloke.Which is it - "we've proved it's going to be great on these pages many times" or "we can't possibly know?"
And he wasn't commenting on the deal, but divergence which you said there was no advantage too; but pretty much everyone in FS thinks there is (pro BREXIT or Remain). There is global consensus that Europe should be a rule taker from London given the expensive list of clusterf
ks either the EC, ECB or ESMA have gifted global markets (which are listed in here many times in detail). The fact they (EC) sign up to G20 or BIS accords and then weasel out on implementation does not help. The laugh isn't Carney, it's the jokers in the EC and Vestager.In FS we are going to diverge, the EC has already had to give equivalence to Clearing Houses EVEN if No Deal; it will be up to the EC how much additional pain it wants to heap on itself in or after the transition period. UK to EU trade may be in surplus for FS, but it's only around 25% of the UK total.
Oh, an making predictions of the back of idiosyncratic risk analysis is pretty easy. Which is the total of Remains economic case. Stress it for real inputs, and it may as well say boiled onions. There simply isn't an upside assessment yet, as too many inputs have yet to be announced (March budget, actual position on equivalence on industry by industry basis etc etc).
stongle said:
Go back to the day I posted it, or search it was in the Telegraph coupled with the L&G bloke.
And he wasn't commenting on the deal, but divergence which you said there was no advantage too; but pretty much everyone in FS thinks there is (pro BREXIT or Remain). There is global consensus that Europe should be a rule taker from London given the expensive list of clusterfks either the EC, ECB or ESMA have gifted global markets (which are listed in here many times in detail). The fact they (EC) sign up to G20 or BIS accords and then weasel out on implementation does not help. The laugh isn't Carney, it's the jokers in the EC and Vestager.
In FS we are going to diverge, the EC has already had to give equivalence to Clearing Houses EVEN if No Deal; it will be up to the EC how much additional pain it wants to heap on itself in or after the transition period. UK to EU trade may be in surplus for FS, but it's only around 25% of the UK total.
Oh, an making predictions of the back of idiosyncratic risk analysis is pretty easy. Which is the total of Remains economic case. Stress it for real inputs, and it may as well say boiled onions. There simply isn't an upside assessment yet, as too many inputs have yet to be announced (March budget, actual position on equivalence on industry by industry basis etc etc).
Good, I'm glad someone isn't resorting to the "we can't possibly know" excuse. And he wasn't commenting on the deal, but divergence which you said there was no advantage too; but pretty much everyone in FS thinks there is (pro BREXIT or Remain). There is global consensus that Europe should be a rule taker from London given the expensive list of clusterf
ks either the EC, ECB or ESMA have gifted global markets (which are listed in here many times in detail). The fact they (EC) sign up to G20 or BIS accords and then weasel out on implementation does not help. The laugh isn't Carney, it's the jokers in the EC and Vestager.In FS we are going to diverge, the EC has already had to give equivalence to Clearing Houses EVEN if No Deal; it will be up to the EC how much additional pain it wants to heap on itself in or after the transition period. UK to EU trade may be in surplus for FS, but it's only around 25% of the UK total.
Oh, an making predictions of the back of idiosyncratic risk analysis is pretty easy. Which is the total of Remains economic case. Stress it for real inputs, and it may as well say boiled onions. There simply isn't an upside assessment yet, as too many inputs have yet to be announced (March budget, actual position on equivalence on industry by industry basis etc etc).
What are the predicted economic benefits of this divergence - has a number been put on this vs GDP for example (are you arguing it outweighs all the downside risks/impacts?). Is there a link as to the scale of the positive effect?
PS if you're saying the EU will become a rule taker from the UK, won't they be aligned to what we decide and hence not diverging after all? Which sectors will this "rule taking" apply to and are we actually diverging if they are following? Great to hear we're not just taking back control but now we're controlling the EU! A good development.
DeepEnd said:
Still, grateful for the link where he says there is a net economic benefit to Brexit. Surprised that has not been bigger news.
Bigger news than the FT? I guess the Remainer bush telegraph ignores anything that doesn't fit the agenda.Carney said:
This happens to be a huge commercial opportunity for the City of London and the UK financial sector writ large.
From here: https://www.ft.com/content/713a70b4-315d-11ea-a329... - I'm sure you can rescue some crumbs of doom from there.DeepEnd said:
stongle said:
Go back to the day I posted it, or search it was in the Telegraph coupled with the L&G bloke.
And he wasn't commenting on the deal, but divergence which you said there was no advantage too; but pretty much everyone in FS thinks there is (pro BREXIT or Remain). There is global consensus that Europe should be a rule taker from London given the expensive list of clusterfks either the EC, ECB or ESMA have gifted global markets (which are listed in here many times in detail). The fact they (EC) sign up to G20 or BIS accords and then weasel out on implementation does not help. The laugh isn't Carney, it's the jokers in the EC and Vestager.
In FS we are going to diverge, the EC has already had to give equivalence to Clearing Houses EVEN if No Deal; it will be up to the EC how much additional pain it wants to heap on itself in or after the transition period. UK to EU trade may be in surplus for FS, but it's only around 25% of the UK total.
Oh, an making predictions of the back of idiosyncratic risk analysis is pretty easy. Which is the total of Remains economic case. Stress it for real inputs, and it may as well say boiled onions. There simply isn't an upside assessment yet, as too many inputs have yet to be announced (March budget, actual position on equivalence on industry by industry basis etc etc).
Good, I'm glad someone isn't resorting to the "we can't possibly know" excuse. And he wasn't commenting on the deal, but divergence which you said there was no advantage too; but pretty much everyone in FS thinks there is (pro BREXIT or Remain). There is global consensus that Europe should be a rule taker from London given the expensive list of clusterf
ks either the EC, ECB or ESMA have gifted global markets (which are listed in here many times in detail). The fact they (EC) sign up to G20 or BIS accords and then weasel out on implementation does not help. The laugh isn't Carney, it's the jokers in the EC and Vestager.In FS we are going to diverge, the EC has already had to give equivalence to Clearing Houses EVEN if No Deal; it will be up to the EC how much additional pain it wants to heap on itself in or after the transition period. UK to EU trade may be in surplus for FS, but it's only around 25% of the UK total.
Oh, an making predictions of the back of idiosyncratic risk analysis is pretty easy. Which is the total of Remains economic case. Stress it for real inputs, and it may as well say boiled onions. There simply isn't an upside assessment yet, as too many inputs have yet to be announced (March budget, actual position on equivalence on industry by industry basis etc etc).
What are the predicted economic benefits of this divergence - has a number been put on this vs GDP for example (are you arguing it outweighs all the downside risks/impacts?). Is there a link as to the scale of the positive effect?
PS if you're saying the EU will become a rule taker from the UK, won't they be aligned to what we decide and hence not diverging after all? Which sectors will this "rule taking" apply to and are we actually diverging if they are following? Great to hear we're not just taking back control but now we're controlling the EU! A good development.
crankedup said:
DeepEnd said:
stongle said:
Go back to the day I posted it, or search it was in the Telegraph coupled with the L&G bloke.
And he wasn't commenting on the deal, but divergence which you said there was no advantage too; but pretty much everyone in FS thinks there is (pro BREXIT or Remain). There is global consensus that Europe should be a rule taker from London given the expensive list of clusterfks either the EC, ECB or ESMA have gifted global markets (which are listed in here many times in detail). The fact they (EC) sign up to G20 or BIS accords and then weasel out on implementation does not help. The laugh isn't Carney, it's the jokers in the EC and Vestager.
In FS we are going to diverge, the EC has already had to give equivalence to Clearing Houses EVEN if No Deal; it will be up to the EC how much additional pain it wants to heap on itself in or after the transition period. UK to EU trade may be in surplus for FS, but it's only around 25% of the UK total.
Oh, an making predictions of the back of idiosyncratic risk analysis is pretty easy. Which is the total of Remains economic case. Stress it for real inputs, and it may as well say boiled onions. There simply isn't an upside assessment yet, as too many inputs have yet to be announced (March budget, actual position on equivalence on industry by industry basis etc etc).
Good, I'm glad someone isn't resorting to the "we can't possibly know" excuse. And he wasn't commenting on the deal, but divergence which you said there was no advantage too; but pretty much everyone in FS thinks there is (pro BREXIT or Remain). There is global consensus that Europe should be a rule taker from London given the expensive list of clusterf
ks either the EC, ECB or ESMA have gifted global markets (which are listed in here many times in detail). The fact they (EC) sign up to G20 or BIS accords and then weasel out on implementation does not help. The laugh isn't Carney, it's the jokers in the EC and Vestager.In FS we are going to diverge, the EC has already had to give equivalence to Clearing Houses EVEN if No Deal; it will be up to the EC how much additional pain it wants to heap on itself in or after the transition period. UK to EU trade may be in surplus for FS, but it's only around 25% of the UK total.
Oh, an making predictions of the back of idiosyncratic risk analysis is pretty easy. Which is the total of Remains economic case. Stress it for real inputs, and it may as well say boiled onions. There simply isn't an upside assessment yet, as too many inputs have yet to be announced (March budget, actual position on equivalence on industry by industry basis etc etc).
What are the predicted economic benefits of this divergence - has a number been put on this vs GDP for example (are you arguing it outweighs all the downside risks/impacts?). Is there a link as to the scale of the positive effect?
PS if you're saying the EU will become a rule taker from the UK, won't they be aligned to what we decide and hence not diverging after all? Which sectors will this "rule taking" apply to and are we actually diverging if they are following? Great to hear we're not just taking back control but now we're controlling the EU! A good development.
Tuna said:
DeepEnd said:
Still, grateful for the link where he says there is a net economic benefit to Brexit. Surprised that has not been bigger news.
Bigger news than the FT? I guess the Remainer bush telegraph ignores anything that doesn't fit the agenda.Carney said:
This happens to be a huge commercial opportunity for the City of London and the UK financial sector writ large.
From here: https://www.ft.com/content/713a70b4-315d-11ea-a329... - I'm sure you can rescue some crumbs of doom from there."Mr Carney predicted that the City of London could profit from the “huge commercial opportunity” of helping to finance and accelerate action to mitigate global warming"
He wasn't talking about brexit in terms of a "huge commercial opportunity" at all. I agree with him about global warming mitigation being a massive opportunity - but that is not linked to leaving the EU, we can invest & support that as we see fit anyway. Or not if you listen to some of the Greta bashing Brexiters we have here.
https://www.ft.com/content/713a70b4-315d-11ea-a329...
Helicopter123 said:
crankedup said:
DeepEnd said:
stongle said:
Go back to the day I posted it, or search it was in the Telegraph coupled with the L&G bloke.
And he wasn't commenting on the deal, but divergence which you said there was no advantage too; but pretty much everyone in FS thinks there is (pro BREXIT or Remain). There is global consensus that Europe should be a rule taker from London given the expensive list of clusterfks either the EC, ECB or ESMA have gifted global markets (which are listed in here many times in detail). The fact they (EC) sign up to G20 or BIS accords and then weasel out on implementation does not help. The laugh isn't Carney, it's the jokers in the EC and Vestager.
In FS we are going to diverge, the EC has already had to give equivalence to Clearing Houses EVEN if No Deal; it will be up to the EC how much additional pain it wants to heap on itself in or after the transition period. UK to EU trade may be in surplus for FS, but it's only around 25% of the UK total.
Oh, an making predictions of the back of idiosyncratic risk analysis is pretty easy. Which is the total of Remains economic case. Stress it for real inputs, and it may as well say boiled onions. There simply isn't an upside assessment yet, as too many inputs have yet to be announced (March budget, actual position on equivalence on industry by industry basis etc etc).
Good, I'm glad someone isn't resorting to the "we can't possibly know" excuse. And he wasn't commenting on the deal, but divergence which you said there was no advantage too; but pretty much everyone in FS thinks there is (pro BREXIT or Remain). There is global consensus that Europe should be a rule taker from London given the expensive list of clusterf
ks either the EC, ECB or ESMA have gifted global markets (which are listed in here many times in detail). The fact they (EC) sign up to G20 or BIS accords and then weasel out on implementation does not help. The laugh isn't Carney, it's the jokers in the EC and Vestager.In FS we are going to diverge, the EC has already had to give equivalence to Clearing Houses EVEN if No Deal; it will be up to the EC how much additional pain it wants to heap on itself in or after the transition period. UK to EU trade may be in surplus for FS, but it's only around 25% of the UK total.
Oh, an making predictions of the back of idiosyncratic risk analysis is pretty easy. Which is the total of Remains economic case. Stress it for real inputs, and it may as well say boiled onions. There simply isn't an upside assessment yet, as too many inputs have yet to be announced (March budget, actual position on equivalence on industry by industry basis etc etc).
What are the predicted economic benefits of this divergence - has a number been put on this vs GDP for example (are you arguing it outweighs all the downside risks/impacts?). Is there a link as to the scale of the positive effect?
PS if you're saying the EU will become a rule taker from the UK, won't they be aligned to what we decide and hence not diverging after all? Which sectors will this "rule taking" apply to and are we actually diverging if they are following? Great to hear we're not just taking back control but now we're controlling the EU! A good development.
Helicopter123 said:
crankedup said:
DeepEnd said:
stongle said:
Go back to the day I posted it, or search it was in the Telegraph coupled with the L&G bloke.
And he wasn't commenting on the deal, but divergence which you said there was no advantage too; but pretty much everyone in FS thinks there is (pro BREXIT or Remain). There is global consensus that Europe should be a rule taker from London given the expensive list of clusterfks either the EC, ECB or ESMA have gifted global markets (which are listed in here many times in detail). The fact they (EC) sign up to G20 or BIS accords and then weasel out on implementation does not help. The laugh isn't Carney, it's the jokers in the EC and Vestager.
In FS we are going to diverge, the EC has already had to give equivalence to Clearing Houses EVEN if No Deal; it will be up to the EC how much additional pain it wants to heap on itself in or after the transition period. UK to EU trade may be in surplus for FS, but it's only around 25% of the UK total.
Oh, an making predictions of the back of idiosyncratic risk analysis is pretty easy. Which is the total of Remains economic case. Stress it for real inputs, and it may as well say boiled onions. There simply isn't an upside assessment yet, as too many inputs have yet to be announced (March budget, actual position on equivalence on industry by industry basis etc etc).
Good, I'm glad someone isn't resorting to the "we can't possibly know" excuse. And he wasn't commenting on the deal, but divergence which you said there was no advantage too; but pretty much everyone in FS thinks there is (pro BREXIT or Remain). There is global consensus that Europe should be a rule taker from London given the expensive list of clusterf
ks either the EC, ECB or ESMA have gifted global markets (which are listed in here many times in detail). The fact they (EC) sign up to G20 or BIS accords and then weasel out on implementation does not help. The laugh isn't Carney, it's the jokers in the EC and Vestager.In FS we are going to diverge, the EC has already had to give equivalence to Clearing Houses EVEN if No Deal; it will be up to the EC how much additional pain it wants to heap on itself in or after the transition period. UK to EU trade may be in surplus for FS, but it's only around 25% of the UK total.
Oh, an making predictions of the back of idiosyncratic risk analysis is pretty easy. Which is the total of Remains economic case. Stress it for real inputs, and it may as well say boiled onions. There simply isn't an upside assessment yet, as too many inputs have yet to be announced (March budget, actual position on equivalence on industry by industry basis etc etc).
What are the predicted economic benefits of this divergence - has a number been put on this vs GDP for example (are you arguing it outweighs all the downside risks/impacts?). Is there a link as to the scale of the positive effect?
PS if you're saying the EU will become a rule taker from the UK, won't they be aligned to what we decide and hence not diverging after all? Which sectors will this "rule taking" apply to and are we actually diverging if they are following? Great to hear we're not just taking back control but now we're controlling the EU! A good development.
DeepEnd said:
Did you read it?
"Mr Carney predicted that the City of London could profit from the “huge commercial opportunity” of helping to finance and accelerate action to mitigate global warming"
He wasn't talking about brexit in terms of a "huge commercial opportunity" at all. I agree with him about global warming mitigation being a massive opportunity - but that is not linked to leaving the EU, we can invest & support that as we see fit anyway. Or not if you listen to some of the Greta bashing Brexiters we have here.
https://www.ft.com/content/713a70b4-315d-11ea-a329...
Different article, let me try and dig out the right one, when I get to office. "Mr Carney predicted that the City of London could profit from the “huge commercial opportunity” of helping to finance and accelerate action to mitigate global warming"
He wasn't talking about brexit in terms of a "huge commercial opportunity" at all. I agree with him about global warming mitigation being a massive opportunity - but that is not linked to leaving the EU, we can invest & support that as we see fit anyway. Or not if you listen to some of the Greta bashing Brexiters we have here.
https://www.ft.com/content/713a70b4-315d-11ea-a329...
As to UK divergence to EC set rules, well as I said it's up to them to decide how much pain they want to heap on themselves.
Too much divergence from a global trading centre (what London is and Europe cannot replicate for decades), means Passporting COULD be a negative creating significant regulatory arbitrage opportunities. In fact, its 100% would in my experience, but anyway.
It's impossible to say what the FS upside is, it's too closely correlated to regulatory actions. It might be a sacrifice to fishing, whom knows. The good thing about London is, by and large its self reinventing. So even the hardest of the hard BREXIT, there is going to be upside (and it's not as though we are talking about the 75% anyway, passporting has allowed us to seed the other 25% with rat runs.....).
In other news, seems that UK Houseprice growth / domestic real estate market (Rightmove index) also disagrees with you. We just posted the largest January gain EVER; in UK Houseprice growth up 2.3%. Now that's seems pretty directly correlated to BJ winning and putting the malaise behind us. Should be on the news shortly.
Edited by stongle on Monday 20th January 08:53
stongle said:
DeepEnd said:
Did you read it?
"Mr Carney predicted that the City of London could profit from the “huge commercial opportunity” of helping to finance and accelerate action to mitigate global warming"
He wasn't talking about brexit in terms of a "huge commercial opportunity" at all. I agree with him about global warming mitigation being a massive opportunity - but that is not linked to leaving the EU, we can invest & support that as we see fit anyway. Or not if you listen to some of the Greta bashing Brexiters we have here.
https://www.ft.com/content/713a70b4-315d-11ea-a329...
Different article, let me try and dig out the right one, when I get to office. "Mr Carney predicted that the City of London could profit from the “huge commercial opportunity” of helping to finance and accelerate action to mitigate global warming"
He wasn't talking about brexit in terms of a "huge commercial opportunity" at all. I agree with him about global warming mitigation being a massive opportunity - but that is not linked to leaving the EU, we can invest & support that as we see fit anyway. Or not if you listen to some of the Greta bashing Brexiters we have here.
https://www.ft.com/content/713a70b4-315d-11ea-a329...
As to UK divergence to EC set rules, well as I said it's up to them to decide how much pain they want to heap on themselves.
Too much divergence from a global trading centre (what London is and Europe cannot replicate for decades), means Passporting COULD be a negative creating significant regulatory arbitrage opportunities. In fact, its 100% would in my experience, but anyway.
It's impossible to say what the FS upside is, it's too closely correlated to regulatory actions. It might be a sacrifice to fishing, whom knows. The good thing about London is, by and large its self reinventing. So even the hardest of the hard BREXIT, there is going to be upside (and it's not as though we are talking about the 75% anyway, passporting has allowed us to seed the other 25% with rat runs.....)
Digga said:
aradoxically, the more 'separate' London is from the EU, in terms of jurisdiction and regulation, the more it will present new opportunities and establish itself as a unique, global FS centre.
Of course, they are already "shot to sh*t" on prudential implementation of BASEL and BIS accords; its adding arbitrage opportunities. The command centre or brain for all that is going to be sitting where, exactly??? (thats rhetorical).Of course could all get f
ked in the negotiations.....There is an article out suggesting that China will need
to buy $200bn additional US goods and services in the next 18 months as part of the phase one trade deal.
This is a trade time bomb for the EU, if most of these extra purchases transition directly from the EU to the USA.
If this is all correct the EUs hand will be weakened.
to buy $200bn additional US goods and services in the next 18 months as part of the phase one trade deal.
This is a trade time bomb for the EU, if most of these extra purchases transition directly from the EU to the USA.
If this is all correct the EUs hand will be weakened.
Carl_Manchester said:
There is an article out suggesting that China will need
to buy $200bn additional US goods and services in the next 18 months as part of the phase one trade deal.
This is a trade time bomb for the EU, if most of these extra purchases transition directly from the EU to the USA.
If this is all correct the EUs hand will be weakened.
Isn't it interesting that whenever data starts to indicate there is an upside to BREXIT, our team of diehards suddenly have better things to do than post.to buy $200bn additional US goods and services in the next 18 months as part of the phase one trade deal.
This is a trade time bomb for the EU, if most of these extra purchases transition directly from the EU to the USA.
If this is all correct the EUs hand will be weakened.
Today was:
PMI data
House Price Data
And Trade Deal between US and China (which Hogan has become very shouty and Billy Big EU b
ks on)Now, I for one don't think it's all roses going forward; but the sky has yet to fall.....
What's really interesting, with all the pre negotiation willy waving (on both sides), the EC position looks protectionist (and isolated), and all BJ says is "I see your rules and raise you USA, Africa, Middle East etc etc). Fascinating stuff.
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