How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)
Discussion
soupdragon1 said:
Digga said:
DeepEnd said:
Vanden Saab said:
DeepEnd said:
Sway said:
Perhaps they are maximising their position in the negotiation, because
- it’s in their best interests
- they have the leverage to do so
Did they get to this level of detail before?
Is this really coming as a surprise to the master genius brexiters who have all the best moves?
Still at least Frost is a brexiter through and through. He can’t be accused of being an Olly.
Let’s hope common sense prevails for the sake of the UK.
From their point of view, what is worse?
A - UK with tariff free access not following any level playing field
B - UK not following level playing field and being hit with tariffs
A is clearly better than B for the UK.
However B sounds better than A for the EU potentially for their own economies.
What does the last 3 years tell you about who will blink?
What happened to no deal BJ? Folded like a cheap oven ready suit.
Robert Kimbell said:
The EU Commission plays political games while the EU27's business with its largest market in the world — the UK — burns.
German car exports to UK DOWN
Dutch flower exports to the UK DOWN
French wine exports to the UK DOWN...
...I hope that MDs of EU27 corporates are satisfied!
https://twitter.com/Rob_Kimbell/status/942480551029690368German car exports to UK DOWN
Dutch flower exports to the UK DOWN
French wine exports to the UK DOWN...
...I hope that MDs of EU27 corporates are satisfied!
Seems to me, already, a classic case of 'beggar thy neighbour' backfiring.
Brexit (unlikely, because nothing has changed yet)
British sentiment towards buying EU goods
British buyers tightening the purse strings
British buyers choosing a cheaper product from somewhere else
British buyers choosing a better product from somewhere else
Overall, there is a message in that tweet somewhere, we just need to figure out what it is.
Murph7355 said:
Stay in Bed Instead said:
Or maybe the EU just don't trust the UK to play fair.
Boris had shown what a master statesman he is with his extension letter in October 2019.
What is this "fair" you speak of and how broadly does it apply. Boris had shown what a master statesman he is with his extension letter in October 2019.
For example, is it fair that Germany doesn't contribute its 2% to NATO? This, of course, leaves it able to spend the surplus on other stuff.
Why would us cutting VAT on certain products be "unfair" to the other 27? Once the transition arrangement is over, why would us offering a subsidy to industry 'x' be any different to the EU continuing CAP payments?
"Fair" can't be cherry picked. If the EU believes that the UK could apply policies which give it material advantage, why isn't the EU applying those policies itself for the good of its member states??
"The UK must not become more competitive."
"How is that to possibly happen? We all know the UK is committing economic suicide. Isn't it?"
"Yes, and our EU membership makes us wealthier!"
"So nothing to worry about then?"
"Correct - as long as we stop the UK getting more competitive, which of course is impossible outside the protective wing of ever closer union! We will gladly take steps that inevitably harm ourselves in order to prevent this impossibility from happening."
"But you don't need to worry about the impossible happening. Clue's in the name."
"Yes! They are inevitably f
ked! And yet, we will enthusiastically fk ourselves pointlessly as we are wealthy and strong and smart!""Riiiiight."
paulrockliffe said:
Sway said:
Well there are lots of unemployed Lib Dems hanging round in Brussels these days.....
U.K. can’t have the same deal as Canada as it’s only 33km from the EU !
Have they forgotten the ROI ?
It’s a tad closer than that
Hans von der Burchard
@vonderburchard
#Brexit battles: EU hits back at U.K., saying Britain cannot be treated like Canada because it's much closer (33 km vs. 5000 km) and exports to EU are "considerably" bigger (€197 billion vs. €125 billion for Canada, Japan and South Korea together).
Earthdweller said:
paulrockliffe said:
Sway said:
Well there are lots of unemployed Lib Dems hanging round in Brussels these days.....U.K. can’t have the same deal as Canada as it’s only 33km from the EU !
Have they forgotten the ROI ?
It’s a tad closer than that
Hans von der Burchard
@vonderburchard
#Brexit battles: EU hits back at U.K., saying Britain cannot be treated like Canada because it's much closer (33 km vs. 5000 km) and exports to EU are "considerably" bigger (€197 billion vs. €125 billion for Canada, Japan and South Korea together).
SpeckledJim said:
mike9009 said:
SpeckledJim said:
Jimbeaux said:
stongle said:
“ The ability to respond to or de-risk financial events is something the EU via its institutions does not have. We do,”
How is that? Genuine question. 
Interest rates rock bottom, growth and inflation the same, and the money pump working flat-out just to keep everyone standing still. What else is up the sleeve? Not much...
amusingduck said:
topsey.mod said:
NAR. I think still on topic. They are just widening the discussion, not derailing it?
I created a new volume when this topic was closed, as I thought it was closed for good. Could you delete the other thread pleasehttps://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
mike9009 said:
SpeckledJim said:
mike9009 said:
SpeckledJim said:
Jimbeaux said:
stongle said:
“ The ability to respond to or de-risk financial events is something the EU via its institutions does not have. We do,”
How is that? Genuine question. Interest rates rock bottom, growth and inflation the same, and the money pump working flat-out just to keep everyone standing still. What else is up the sleeve? Not much...
But unity over the Withdrawal Agreement is not pertinent to their financial situation, which is dire. Unity on that solution is a hopeless quest, because they all have different problems with sometimes opposite solutions, but no way to apply them topically, only by blunderbuss.
Smiler. said:
amusingduck said:
topsey.mod said:
NAR. I think still on topic. They are just widening the discussion, not derailing it?
I created a new volume when this topic was closed, as I thought it was closed for good. Could you delete the other thread pleasehttps://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
Not sure why it was closed to begin with
soupdragon1 said:
Would be interesting to know the root cause of these 3 things dropping. Eg:
Brexit (unlikely, because nothing has changed yet)
British sentiment towards buying EU goods
British buyers tightening the purse strings
British buyers choosing a cheaper product from somewhere else
British buyers choosing a better product from somewhere else
Overall, there is a message in that tweet somewhere, we just need to figure out what it is.
Let me help with an alternative. Brexit (unlikely, because nothing has changed yet)
British sentiment towards buying EU goods
British buyers tightening the purse strings
British buyers choosing a cheaper product from somewhere else
British buyers choosing a better product from somewhere else
Overall, there is a message in that tweet somewhere, we just need to figure out what it is.
The EU knew no deal would hurt them, although it would also hurt the UK more, they also believe no deal would mean benefits for inward investment into the EU which might have originally gone to the UK.
The biggest problem of no deal for the EU was it would require a land border in Ireland.
BJ great new WA solved the problem.
This gives the EU much more leverage in the next stage of negotiations.
soupdragon1 said:
Would be interesting to know the root cause of these 3 things dropping. Eg:
Brexit (unlikely, because nothing has changed yet)
British sentiment towards buying EU goods
British buyers tightening the purse strings
British buyers choosing a cheaper product from somewhere else
British buyers choosing a better product from somewhere else
Overall, there is a message in that tweet somewhere, we just need to figure out what it is.
UK economic performance in q4 2019 was moribund. Q1 2020 may or may not see a recovery but, either way, I think broadly the effects are merely that the UK bought a bit less of everything and yes, purse strings have been tightened.Brexit (unlikely, because nothing has changed yet)
British sentiment towards buying EU goods
British buyers tightening the purse strings
British buyers choosing a cheaper product from somewhere else
British buyers choosing a better product from somewhere else
Overall, there is a message in that tweet somewhere, we just need to figure out what it is.
Other factors too, one example being VAG Group have had shocking sales because they've struggled to get cars through new emissions tests.
There are manifold causes, but at a time where EU exports to Chine will obviously be feeling the pinch, it does perhaps serve to underline the importance of the UK. As did the size of the dot in that trade deal graph a few pages back.
amusingduck said:
Smiler. said:
amusingduck said:
topsey.mod said:
NAR. I think still on topic. They are just widening the discussion, not derailing it?
I created a new volume when this topic was closed, as I thought it was closed for good. Could you delete the other thread pleasehttps://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
Not sure why it was closed to begin with
Mrr T said:
Let me help with an alternative.
The EU knew no deal would hurt them, although it would also hurt the UK more, they also believe no deal would mean benefits for inward investment into the EU which might have originally gone to the UK.
The biggest problem of no deal for the EU was it would require a land border in Ireland.
BJ great new WA solved the problem.
This gives the EU much more leverage in the next stage of negotiations.
Let me help with an alternative. The EU knew no deal would hurt them, although it would also hurt the UK more, they also believe no deal would mean benefits for inward investment into the EU which might have originally gone to the UK.
The biggest problem of no deal for the EU was it would require a land border in Ireland.
BJ great new WA solved the problem.
This gives the EU much more leverage in the next stage of negotiations.
The EU didn't give a fig about any of that stuff you've posted because they thought that the Parliamentary situation in the UK would not allow us to leave the EU at all, let alone without an agreement.
They were right, but that's all changed now.
paulrockliffe said:
Let me help with an alternative.
The EU didn't give a fig about any of that stuff you've posted because they thought that the Parliamentary situation in the UK would not allow us to leave the EU at all, let alone without an agreement.
They were right, but that's all changed now.
I think the EU weren’t arsed because they mistakenly thought that the U.K. would never actually leave The EU didn't give a fig about any of that stuff you've posted because they thought that the Parliamentary situation in the UK would not allow us to leave the EU at all, let alone without an agreement.
They were right, but that's all changed now.
Their echo chamber and all the noise coming from the the U.K. confirmed their bias
I think based on that they failed to prepare and now that particular chicken is coming home to roost
At some point this year there will have to be an epiphany moment in Brussels or its No deal at the end of the year
The UK just has to hold its ground, it has nothing to lose in doing so
Earthdweller said:
I think the EU weren’t arsed because they mistakenly thought that the U.K. would never actually leave
Their echo chamber and all the noise coming from the the U.K. confirmed their bias
I think based on that they failed to prepare and now that particular chicken is coming home to roost
At some point this year there will have to be an epiphany moment in Brussels or its No deal at the end of the year
The UK just has to hold its ground, it has nothing to lose in doing so
Nothing to lose in no deal?Their echo chamber and all the noise coming from the the U.K. confirmed their bias
I think based on that they failed to prepare and now that particular chicken is coming home to roost
At some point this year there will have to be an epiphany moment in Brussels or its No deal at the end of the year
The UK just has to hold its ground, it has nothing to lose in doing so
lol - why did we bother with a transition then?
I think that the UK and the EU should revert to WTO for a time. Unravel the last 40 years.
I sincerely hope that the EU does not grant the UK any preferential treatment in these negotiations albeit I don't see an issue with a Canada-style Agreement but not at all concerned if the EU refuses it because, as I say, I believe the general relationship ought to start over completely after a period of disentanglement.
I sincerely hope that the EU does not grant the UK any preferential treatment in these negotiations albeit I don't see an issue with a Canada-style Agreement but not at all concerned if the EU refuses it because, as I say, I believe the general relationship ought to start over completely after a period of disentanglement.
Coolbananas said:
I think that the UK and the EU should revert to WTO for a time. Unravel the last 40 years.
I sincerely hope that the EU does not grant the UK any preferential treatment in these negotiations albeit I don't see an issue with a Canada-style Agreement but not at all concerned if the EU refuses it because, as I say, I believe the general relationship ought to start over completely after a period of disentanglement.
There's some merit to this. In the same way as the present transition period gives some certainty and a base to work from, so might reversion to WTO.I sincerely hope that the EU does not grant the UK any preferential treatment in these negotiations albeit I don't see an issue with a Canada-style Agreement but not at all concerned if the EU refuses it because, as I say, I believe the general relationship ought to start over completely after a period of disentanglement.
The trouble comes though, with things like FS, where the EU and the UK could get in a bit of a pickle. They perhaps need to try harder.
Earthdweller said:
DeepEnd said:
Nothing to lose in no deal?
lol - why did we bother with a transition then?
That’s not what I said is it ?lol - why did we bother with a transition then?
I said the U.K. has nothing to lose playing hardball now in the negotiations, the ball is firmly in the EU’s court
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