PH Psephologists
Discussion
A geeky thread but I know there are some here even more nerdy than me about this stuff, so I thought I would start a thread where we can share our predictions, markers and bellwethers without getting sidetracked by trivia like healthcare, the economy, a complete lack of trust in politics and our place in the world.
To start it off, I will be glued to the TV at about 11pm for the Sunderland South result. It will almost certainly be Labour of course but the swing will be the interesting thing.
The Tories need to win 20 more seats than they did in 2017 to get the 326 needed for a majority. Their strategy seems to have been to grab leave voting seats from Labour so I think Sunderland is a pretty good predictor of what is to come.
According to this a swing of 2.06% would get them the top 20 Labour target seats, so all else being equal be enough to get them in.
However it's not that simple. A couple of seats in there like Stroud and Kensington are not Leave strongholds, so wouldn't automatically turn blue if the Tories gain 2.06% in Sunderland. Scrolling further down and discounting the likes of Battersea something like a 3% swing would be more convincing, taking them as far as Wrexham.
Then it gets more complicated again when you factor in that this strategy will likely cost the Tories seats in remain areas. If we can expect the Lib Dems to be the main beneficiaries of this their list suggests they would need quite a big swing, but 5% would see them get 6 seats.
Going back to the Tory target list and adding another 6 Labour leave seats takes them down to Great Grimsby on a 3.61% swing. This would only take them 1 seat above 325.
This should be enough to get them over the line, but only just. If Labour were to claw back Hastings or Southampton Itchen, as well they might according to their target list then we're back in hung parliament territory.
At 4% they would pick up another 3 seats, down to Rother Valley but just missing Cardiff North. This should give them a majority of 1. The good news after that is quite a tight grouping in the 4-5% range. A 5% swing would put them 10 seats up, so beating Cameron's 330 seats in 2015. 6% would net them another 11 seats, virtually guaranteeing a solid majority.
So, my armchair psephology for just over 24 hours time is that we need a 5% swing from Labour to Tory in Sunderland South in order to get a slim majority for the Tories, and 6% for a solid Conservative government.
Trash it, improve it or tell me completely different ones.
To start it off, I will be glued to the TV at about 11pm for the Sunderland South result. It will almost certainly be Labour of course but the swing will be the interesting thing.
The Tories need to win 20 more seats than they did in 2017 to get the 326 needed for a majority. Their strategy seems to have been to grab leave voting seats from Labour so I think Sunderland is a pretty good predictor of what is to come.
According to this a swing of 2.06% would get them the top 20 Labour target seats, so all else being equal be enough to get them in.
However it's not that simple. A couple of seats in there like Stroud and Kensington are not Leave strongholds, so wouldn't automatically turn blue if the Tories gain 2.06% in Sunderland. Scrolling further down and discounting the likes of Battersea something like a 3% swing would be more convincing, taking them as far as Wrexham.
Then it gets more complicated again when you factor in that this strategy will likely cost the Tories seats in remain areas. If we can expect the Lib Dems to be the main beneficiaries of this their list suggests they would need quite a big swing, but 5% would see them get 6 seats.
Going back to the Tory target list and adding another 6 Labour leave seats takes them down to Great Grimsby on a 3.61% swing. This would only take them 1 seat above 325.
This should be enough to get them over the line, but only just. If Labour were to claw back Hastings or Southampton Itchen, as well they might according to their target list then we're back in hung parliament territory.
At 4% they would pick up another 3 seats, down to Rother Valley but just missing Cardiff North. This should give them a majority of 1. The good news after that is quite a tight grouping in the 4-5% range. A 5% swing would put them 10 seats up, so beating Cameron's 330 seats in 2015. 6% would net them another 11 seats, virtually guaranteeing a solid majority.
So, my armchair psephology for just over 24 hours time is that we need a 5% swing from Labour to Tory in Sunderland South in order to get a slim majority for the Tories, and 6% for a solid Conservative government.
Trash it, improve it or tell me completely different ones.
biggbn said:
I wonder if Scotland will make the difference it did last time. Under Ruth Davidson the Scottish Toryies did some damage up here but support has dwindled since then?
I heard the Tories have had a bit of a boost there from the unionist/not-another-referendum vote, and from Ruth Davidson's threat to go skinny dipping in Loch Ness but I must admit I have discounted Scotland from my Personally I think it will be nearer a 10% gain to the tories in Sunderland. Not sure this will translate across the country though. I think it will be a night of shocks for both sides although I think the Tories will end up with around a 40 seat majority mainly from the midlands, the north and Wales where I expect them to do very well. It will be a fascinating night hopefully with plenty of egg on commentating journalists and politicians faces... expect more Campbell style meltdowns...
My son, who's been more or less accurate for the last few elections (don't ask about the referendum) reckons it will be a slim tory majority, into double figures probably. He works with political correspondents. That said, his certainty is that there's no predicting it.
Ruth Davidson was the architect of the bewildering gain in tory seats in Scotland. She's only just gone, but will be missed. It's not only a loss to the tories, but to Scotland as well. A sensible voice. Stick her as pm and the tories would walk it. They won't lose all the seats. Most of the 13 are marginals but the main alternative is SNP. The libdems and labour both increased their seats in the last election so might gain some. It's very tight. It might also be critical.
It's exciting, isn't it.
Ruth Davidson was the architect of the bewildering gain in tory seats in Scotland. She's only just gone, but will be missed. It's not only a loss to the tories, but to Scotland as well. A sensible voice. Stick her as pm and the tories would walk it. They won't lose all the seats. Most of the 13 are marginals but the main alternative is SNP. The libdems and labour both increased their seats in the last election so might gain some. It's very tight. It might also be critical.
It's exciting, isn't it.
Derek Smith said:
My son, who's been more or less accurate for the last few elections (don't ask about the referendum) reckons it will be a slim tory majority, into double figures probably. He works with political correspondents. That said, his certainty is that there's no predicting it.
Ruth Davidson was the architect of the bewildering gain in tory seats in Scotland. She's only just gone, but will be missed. It's not only a loss to the tories, but to Scotland as well. A sensible voice. Stick her as pm and the tories would walk it. They won't lose all the seats. Most of the 13 are marginals but the main alternative is SNP. The libdems and labour both increased their seats in the last election so might gain some. It's very tight. It might also be critical.
It's exciting, isn't it.
Even I, a fairly confirmed left thinker, could have considered voting for a Davidson led Tory party. She seemed like a decent human being and was more centrist and sensible than many in her party. She would not have been a least worst option, she would have provided us with a best option. She did have some car crash interviews and made some strange decisions latterly but nobody is perfect. A loss to the Tories for sureRuth Davidson was the architect of the bewildering gain in tory seats in Scotland. She's only just gone, but will be missed. It's not only a loss to the tories, but to Scotland as well. A sensible voice. Stick her as pm and the tories would walk it. They won't lose all the seats. Most of the 13 are marginals but the main alternative is SNP. The libdems and labour both increased their seats in the last election so might gain some. It's very tight. It might also be critical.
It's exciting, isn't it.
biggbn said:
Even I, a fairly confirmed left thinker, could have considered voting for a Davidson led Tory party. She seemed like a decent human being and was more centrist and sensible than many in her party. She would not have been a least worst option, she would have provided us with a best option. She did have some car crash interviews and made some strange decisions latterly but nobody is perfect. A loss to the Tories for sure
I'm sitting in one of the most marginal Scottish constituencies and have no idea what I'm going to do tomorrow. I can only imagine that many other feel similarly. Davidson gave a more inclusive feel for the Scottish Conservatives, which unlocked a fundamental small c conservative body of opinion that have no truck with the SNP but may have found it difficult to support Tories in the 90's and 00's.Johnson has destroyed this IMO. It's back to the old extremes. I don't think much of the local candidates. The incumbent appears to be at the beginning of a political career and unwilling to step out of line. The SNP candidate is a poor carpetbagger. I find both Tory and SNP leaders equally obnoxious and untrustworthy. I never though I would ever begin to consider voting SNP, but Johnson and his cohorts are so unprincipled it has crossed my mind.
Equally for the first time I'm considering not voting.
peterperkins said:
I'm one of the sado's who looked at this thread because I had no idea what a Psephologists is/was.
Not sure i'm any the wiser.
psephologyNot sure i'm any the wiser.
/sɛˈfɒlədʒi,sɪˈfɒlədʒi/
noun
the statistical study of elections and trends in voting.
Get into inferring the composition of parliament from the swing in Wrexham before calling yourself a saddo!
I am going to go out on a limb and predict a reasonable majority for the Tories. I just think that Leavers are on average much more fixated on Brexit than the average Remainer and that will mean a higher turnout for the Tories.
I’m a long way from the UK and we missed the deadline for the postal vote so I won’t be voting this time. Which is good as I don’t know who to vote for. I am more naturally a Labour voter but don’t think I could vote for Corbyn. Yet I dislike Johnson even more than Corbyn.
I’m a long way from the UK and we missed the deadline for the postal vote so I won’t be voting this time. Which is good as I don’t know who to vote for. I am more naturally a Labour voter but don’t think I could vote for Corbyn. Yet I dislike Johnson even more than Corbyn.
hutchst said:
I have no idea what this thread's about, but the tories got 317 last time, so they only need to get 9 more to reach 326, not 20. Unless I'm more senile than I thought.
Nope I'm the senile one. I meant to say they need to take about 20 Labour leave seats to secure a majority allowing for the defections, and Labour remain seats. Vanden Saab said:
Personally I think it will be nearer a 10% gain to the tories in Sunderland. Not sure this will translate across the country though. I think it will be a night of shocks for both sides although I think the Tories will end up with around a 40 seat majority mainly from the midlands, the north and Wales where I expect them to do very well. It will be a fascinating night hopefully with plenty of egg on commentating journalists and politicians faces... expect more Campbell style meltdowns...
Living in the constituency I’m following the result with interest, although expect a labour hold with a large majority still. Had it just been Tory vs Labour I think there could be a big shock based on the local feeling ps being expressed on social media and the swing away from the long held labour council last local elections (they lost 10 seats IIRC) .I personally voted tactically, the Tory candidate lives in London and probably doesn’t even know where this place is. Not a good start so I’ve guessed the best chance of a change of local MP here would be the Brexit party.
My own personal opinion is that because it is a 3 horse race here the leave vote will split and let Labour in with a large majority.
So it won’t quite be the bell weather result you could otherwise see.
My constituency of Barrow-in-Furness is an interesting one.
Narrow (200ish) Labour majority last time out. MP deselected due to criticising Corbyn.
Largely working class electorate, several thousand of whom work in the shipyard, which is heavily unionised (Unite/GMB). A lot of people are Red no matter what, which is incredulous as Corbyn would like to scrap nuclear weapons, the very thing which keeps them in work. The replacement of Trident was one of the reasons it was so close last time as many were worried that Labour would seek support of the SNP if they were close enough in the last election and that could have been a nail in the coffin for Trident replacement. It could be too late now to scrap Trident replacement now (although I would never underestimate Labour's capacity to make a mental decision and cancel even after the vast amount of money already spent).
On the subject of BREXT, the constituency voted leave.
So balancing the potential reduced risk of Trident replacement being cancelled against the largely pro leave constituency, against the Red or die attitude, it could be interesting.
Strangely, there has not been much high level campaigning.
Narrow (200ish) Labour majority last time out. MP deselected due to criticising Corbyn.
Largely working class electorate, several thousand of whom work in the shipyard, which is heavily unionised (Unite/GMB). A lot of people are Red no matter what, which is incredulous as Corbyn would like to scrap nuclear weapons, the very thing which keeps them in work. The replacement of Trident was one of the reasons it was so close last time as many were worried that Labour would seek support of the SNP if they were close enough in the last election and that could have been a nail in the coffin for Trident replacement. It could be too late now to scrap Trident replacement now (although I would never underestimate Labour's capacity to make a mental decision and cancel even after the vast amount of money already spent).
On the subject of BREXT, the constituency voted leave.
So balancing the potential reduced risk of Trident replacement being cancelled against the largely pro leave constituency, against the Red or die attitude, it could be interesting.
Strangely, there has not been much high level campaigning.
biggbn said:
Even I, a fairly confirmed left thinker, could have considered voting for a Davidson led Tory party. She seemed like a decent human being and was more centrist and sensible than many in her party. She would not have been a least worst option, she would have provided us with a best option. She did have some car crash interviews and made some strange decisions latterly but nobody is perfect. A loss to the Tories for sure
So would I. I've voted for all three major parties in my time, normally for good (to me) reasons. I find party loyalty a bit weird. Had Davidson been i/c the tories, they'd have had my vote. Mind you, I think if she had been, they wouldn't have needed my vote to win.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff