Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?

[anonymous-user]

After how many sets of "just you wait 2 more weeks" are the doom mongers going to realise it's not the apocalypse?

[poo at Paul's]

Gregmitchell said:

Italy update.

WHO really do need to fk off, totally hopeless.

38 new cases in Italy: 36 in Lombary (including a 17-year-old male in Valtellina) and 2 in Turin: a couple who visited their child at the Regina Margherita Hospital in Turin yesterday morning.

- Armed forces and police forces have been mobilized to form an insurmountable "health belt" around contagion areas. Roadblock violators risk up to a 3 months prison sentence.

- "Serious mistake was made not to quarantine people who arrived in Italy from China" said Walter Ricciardi of the WHO, adding that "within two weeks we will know if we are facing an epidemic" and advising that, for the next two weeks, people "avoid crowded places: metro, buses, trains, schools, discos, and gyms."

- "Schools will be closed in Milan for a week " said Milan's mayor Giuseppe Sala.

I agree, WHO are fking muppets. And if they think the Italian non quarantine of people from China is bad, in UK it’s been even worse.
Chinese arrive unchecked, get on tube, trains etc and just spread it amongst the commuters.

[anonymous-user]

RTB said:

V6 Pushfit said:

Now THATS a bit more reassuring - 2%.

Although the sand hat brigade would have it as 0.3%

So what’s going on??? Are there REALLY huge numbers with very mild symptoms who recovered? Hubei has the biggest sample size so to get to say 2% today it would have to be around 70,000 who winged it there.

70000 extra people who have become infected and recovered would only represent 0.1% of the Hubei population. Given how contagious this is would that be pushing the boundaries of plausibility?

I agree totally which is why I posted it. CCP/WHO have not said anything about a wider infection. The cases on the stats are all they are using for their % and the worldwide infection number is stated to be around 80,000 total - not ‘80,000 known plus the same number likely’.

[jimPH]

janesmith1950 said:

After how many sets of "just you wait 2 more weeks" are the doom mongers going to realise it's not the apocalypse?

Any comments on the Iran/Italy situation? I don't think either of those places need to wait two weeks.

[andy_s]

We'll know the situation today in two weeks time...

[Exige77]

janesmith1950 said:

After how many sets of "just you wait 2 more weeks" are the doom mongers going to realise it's not the apocalypse?

I think the last two weeks have shown it’s spreading far and wide.

Next two weeks will probably show further spread and further fatalities.

Better keep an open mind and be as best informed as we can be. The economic fall out could be even worse than the potential death toll.

[anonymous-user]

janesmith1950 said:

After how many sets of "just you wait 2 more weeks" are the doom mongers going to realise it's not the apocalypse?

Bit of a daft post that given the newspaper Iran/Italy in the last 2 days.

Sorry for the delay

[isaldiri]

Exige77 said:

I think the last two weeks have shown it’s spreading far and wide.

Well that's not really the case either is it? There have been the recent outbreaks in Italy/South Korea plus the cruise ship but across the rest of the world and in the 20+ countries that had recorded cases they aren't recording further cases at an increasing rate.

[Penelope Stopit]

janesmith1950 said:

After how many sets of "just you wait 2 more weeks" are the doom mongers going to realise they may well be correct?

Fixed

[eharding]

Exige77 said:

The economic fall out could be even worse than the potential death toll.

I think that's the rather cold calculation that has been made in China. They now have firm data on the likely impact of a general epidemic across China of the virus, and have compared that against the projected economic effect of the ongoing lock down, and have decided that re-opening for business is the lesser of two evils.

[Gregmitchell]

janesmith1950 said:

After how many sets of "just you wait 2 more weeks" are the doom mongers going to realise it's not the apocalypse?

Just flu ain’t it.


Armed forces and police forces have been mobilized to form an insurmountable "health belt" around contagion areas. Roadblock violators risk up to a 3 months prison sentence.

[Leithen]

Whilst it is tempting and easy to beat the WHO with whatever implement lies close to hand, it needs to be understood that they are not some global health police. They can't march into countries and cut across nations or state health organisations.

At best it can coordinate in times of crisis. Little else.

[aeropilot]

schmalex said:

Why did the repatriation flight land at Boscombe Down (of which Porton is in the same complex) yesterday and then pax transferred to the Wirral? There are closer military airstrips to Liverpool that can handle a 747.

Actually, the only one closer that can handle a 747 would be Waddington in Lincs, but that's an active RAF base, so would likely be deemed a risk.
Boscombe is not an active RAF airfield, its a MOD/QinetiQ operated airfield, but which has the full operational functions of ATC and Fire coverage for handling an aircraft such as a 747, and as such is thus the only choice in terms of facilities and isolation to bring in such a flight.

[Gregmitchell]

eharding said:

Exige77 said:

The economic fall out could be even worse than the potential death toll.

I think that's the rather cold calculation that has been made in China. They now have firm data on the likely impact of a general epidemic across China of the virus, and have compared that against the projected economic effect of the ongoing lock down, and have decided that re-opening for business is the lesser of two evils.

It’s either go back to work or CCP will make you disappear. The billionaires need their money and don’t give a hoot about the civilians.

[Gregmitchell]

Leithen said:

Whilst it is tempting and easy to beat the WHO with whatever implement lies close to hand, it needs to be understood that they are not some global health police. They can't march into countries and cut across nations or state health organisations.

At best it can coordinate in times of crisis. Little else.

Their press conferences are a joke, their stats are a joke, their predictions are a joke, their advice is a joke. UN should have stepped in much earlier.

[eharding]

aeropilot said:

Actually, the only one closer that can handle a 747 would be Waddington in Lincs, but that's an active RAF base, so would likely be deemed a risk.
Boscombe is not an active RAF airfield, its a MOD/QinetiQ operated airfield, but which has the full operational functions of ATC and Fire coverage for handling an aircraft such as a 747, and as such is thus the only choice in terms of facilities and isolation to bring in such a flight.

Brize is closer if you just look at a map, obviously, but a pain in the arse to get to. Boscombe Down is right next to the A303, and then it's dual-carriageway and motorway straight through to the Wirral.

Still not clear why they couldn't go into Hawarden, right next door. Maybe Airbus just told them to stuff off with bringing your plague-filled Boeing in here.

[aeropilot]

sherbertdip said:

also not beyond reason is that the pilots and crew and probably medical personal were all from the armed services and based at Boscombe and Porton.

Won't be any 747 rated ALTP pilots serving in RAF, and unlikely any of the Boscombe based ETPS pilots will have ATPL's.

[Exige77]

eharding said:

Exige77 said:

The economic fall out could be even worse than the potential death toll.

I think that's the rather cold calculation that has been made in China. They now have firm data on the likely impact of a general epidemic across China of the virus, and have compared that against the projected economic effect of the ongoing lock down, and have decided that re-opening for business is the lesser of two evils.

As I’ve mentioned before, CCP need a certain amount of consent from the population to stay in power.

If the economic situation turns really bad, the CCP could be in deep doo doo.

They need to walk a fine line between looking like caring about the population’s health but also keep the cash flowing.

China where not in a good financial situation before the crisis.

[eharding]

Gregmitchell said:

eharding said:

Exige77 said:

The economic fall out could be even worse than the potential death toll.

I think that's the rather cold calculation that has been made in China. They now have firm data on the likely impact of a general epidemic across China of the virus, and have compared that against the projected economic effect of the ongoing lock down, and have decided that re-opening for business is the lesser of two evils.

It’s either go back to work or CCP will make you disappear. The billionaires need their money and don’t give a hoot about the civilians.

The CCP don't give two hoots about what the Chinese billionaire entrepreneurs think, when push comes to shove. Such as they are, they exist at the discretion of the Party, and those that have kicked up a fuss in the past tend to come unstuck. The CCP is concerned with hanging onto power, and the economic disruption caused by the lock down now looks more likely to be a threat to that than the virus.

Also, it won't be a case of "go back to work or CCP will make you disappear" - it'll be simply go back to work or go hungry, your choice.

Edited: same points made by previous post....

[aeropilot]

eharding said:

Still not clear why they couldn't go into Hawarden, right next door. Maybe Airbus just told them to stuff off with bringing your plague-filled Boeing in here.

Most likely, plus this was a Govt flight, so would have wanted to land at a Govt controlled airfield for all sorts of reasons.

Also runway length is officially too short for a 747-400 at 7000ft, even though this flight wouldn't have been anywhere near max landing weight.....but it might still be an issue.