Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?

[Gary C]

anyone managed to get the NHS to test them ?

Seems that unless you were in a lockdown area they won't do tests.

[anonymous-user]

V6 Pushfit said:

10126 Torino said:

Can we get back on topic ? thanks....

Picked up some masks today - four bloody quid each and they’re £2.20 on eBay from ...err...
Oh

Every medical person i’ve heard has said that masks are a waste of time, or make matters worse!
There is more chance of you spreading bugs from your hands to face/mouth/etc when putting it on, than there being any benefits..

[isaldiri]

V6 Pushfit said:

V6 Pushfit said:

isaldiri said:

ok crack on. so only 6m or whatever in the UK that will die now given your miraculously changing fatality rate.

You really don’t get it do you?

Have you seen my post earlier today?

Do you normally read a book and only remember the first page?

Ok ok, let’s be reasonable... what do you think the current rate is - with your calculation please. The floor is yours....

Still waiting.....

A tip to get ahead of the game - avoid using case numbers. They’re misleading and get added to the recovered side by stats people afraid of the alternative.

Anyway apologies for interrupting your thinking - all yours....

Apologies for not being permanently in front of the computer waiting to answer you....


What do I think the current rate is? Well, I don't pretend to know enough and I am not prepared to come up with BS numbers like some people.

However, 2 seperate studies with medical researchers who specialise in that sort of thing seem to have placed it around 1% a few weeks ago and hasn't been changed so far afaik. That is as far as I am concerned the best available estimate rather than coming up with some utterly irrelevant number based on current data (which everyone I think accepts has a lot of gaps) and having to change it drastically within the space of 2 weeks because all that means is the number was completely meaningless.

What I am reasonably certain though is that the case fatality rate is not 10% as the rotw numbers of dead people just aren't showing anything like that. Sars with 10% fatality rate had enough cases in Canada/Singapore and HK that showed quickly that it was a pretty bloody virulent disease. covid19 isn't imo on the same scale even if it's clearly much more easily spread. CFR estimates for Sars were also revised by the WHO and others from 3- 6% to nearer 15% within a month or so of the outbreak so if there was a serious discrepancy from the estimated numbers the medical people would be amending said estimates.

[philv]

Jimboka said:

V6 Pushfit said:

10126 Torino said:

Can we get back on topic ? thanks....

Picked up some masks today - four bloody quid each and they’re £2.20 on eBay from ...err...
Oh

Every medical person i’ve heard has said that masks are a waste of time, or make matters worse!
There is more chance of you spreading bugs from your hands to face/mouth/etc when putting it on, than there being any benefits..

Disagree.
That is not logical.

They may not be totally effective, but they obviously offer some protection.

[philv]

scottydoesntknow said:

Dr JC reckons it might have mutated in Iran. Deputy Health Minister and an MP both tested positive.

https://youtu.be/FKPUNub-vDQ

Won't developing a vaccine be potentially more difficult in that case, depending on how it mutates?

I suppose it could mutate into something less deadly
That would be of more benefit to the virus....and of course the host.

[Gary C]

philv said:

Disagree.
That is not logical.

They may not be totally effective, but they obviously offer some protection.

In what way.

Obviously the virus can pass through easily. I suppose it could catch some droplets of fluid, but then it will hold them in your face until they evaporate enough for the virus to be breathed in.

[Abbott]

andy_s said:

Not-The-Messiah said:

Abbott said:

Abbott said:

Question: If i get the virus and recover after a certain time, am I then immune from getting the same strain again within a certain time period?

Bump?

I think you will be immune to Covid-19 but nothing stopping you getting Covid-20 or whatever they call it if it mutates which it probably will. Although the chances are because it will be similar to Covid-19 you immune system will have a idea how to deal with it so it wouldn't be as bad.

The problem with new viruses like this is your body as never seen anything like it. So it either takes time to work out how to kill it by that time it's gone mad and made you quite ill causing pneumonia. Or worse case your own immune system as a full on panic attack and ends up killing you itself, like what happened with the Spanish flu.

https://youtu.be/57fVBsJtwbA?t=1203

On re-infection with mutation.

well that was very interesting if a little scary. So simple answer is no you should not get reinfected by the same strain but if you get infected by a variant then you are in deep st

[Sn1ckers]

Jimboka said:

Rubbish :-
“Across all age groups including children, the flu vaccine prevented 52% of flu cases in 2015-16, 40% of flu cases in 2016-17, 15% of flu cases in 2017-2018 and 44% of flu cases in 2018-19 “

You quote stats that appear when you google flu vaccine effectiveness but I suspect these stats are largely bull. For a start ask yourself how they prove a negative like ‘it prevented 52% of people catching the flu’; how on earth do they reach that figure???

Many people argue (sorry for the Trumpism) that the flu jab does more harm than good. I couldn’t say either way but what I know is stats like the above are grabbed out of fresh air.

I would suggest taking high doses of Vitamin D is more likely help with flu/cold et al resistance than flu jabs etc.

[Lordbenny]

So, we’re closing schools, businesses, not travelling, sports fixtures cancelled....when will this stop? I can’t, it can only get worse so surely the only thing to do is keep calm and carry on as if it never happened. This virus is very similar to a common flu so let people catch it and if the frail and weak get it and they die then so be it...until a vaccine is found which should take about a year or so.

[anonymous-user]

isaldiri said:

V6 Pushfit said:

V6 Pushfit said:

isaldiri said:

ok crack on. so only 6m or whatever in the UK that will die now given your miraculously changing fatality rate.

You really don’t get it do you?

Have you seen my post earlier today?

Do you normally read a book and only remember the first page?

Ok ok, let’s be reasonable... what do you think the current rate is - with your calculation please. The floor is yours....

Still waiting.....

A tip to get ahead of the game - avoid using case numbers. They’re misleading and get added to the recovered side by stats people afraid of the alternative.

Anyway apologies for interrupting your thinking - all yours....

Apologies for not being permanently in front of the computer waiting to answer you....


What do I think the current rate is? Well, I don't pretend to know enough and I am not prepared to come up with BS numbers like some people.

However, 2 seperate studies with medical researchers who specialise in that sort of thing seem to have placed it around 1% a few weeks ago and hasn't been changed so far afaik. That is as far as I am concerned the best available estimate rather than coming up with some utterly irrelevant number based on current data (which everyone I think accepts has a lot of gaps) and having to change it drastically within the space of 2 weeks because all that means is the number was completely meaningless.

What I am reasonably certain though is that the case fatality rate is not 10% as the rotw numbers of dead people just aren't showing anything like that. Sars with 10% fatality rate had enough cases in Canada/Singapore and HK that showed quickly that it was a pretty bloody virulent disease. covid19 isn't imo on the same scale even if it's clearly much more easily spread. CFR estimates for Sars were also revised by the WHO and others from 3- 6% to nearer 15% within a month or so of the outbreak so if there was a serious discrepancy from the estimated numbers the medical people would be amending said estimates.

What are your figures ?

For every 9 people who have left hospital 1 has died. What roughly is that as a % would you hazard a guess. Go on....

Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 26th February 22:31

[slipstream 1985]

https://youtu.be/WprMPkKscwo?t=16

some basic prepping being done in Scotland already!

[dandarez]

philv said:

Jimboka said:

V6 Pushfit said:

10126 Torino said:

Can we get back on topic ? thanks....

Picked up some masks today - four bloody quid each and they’re £2.20 on eBay from ...err...
Oh

Every medical person i’ve heard has said that masks are a waste of time, or make matters worse!
There is more chance of you spreading bugs from your hands to face/mouth/etc when putting it on, than there being any benefits..

Disagree.
That is not logical.

They may not be totally effective, but they obviously offer some protection.

Jimboka is correct.
They are in the main, absolutely f. useless! How do I know, a microbiologist was talking with me this morning, He's a classic car buff but not on here. Ever sprayed a car Dan, he said. Yeah. What protection did you use? A reasonable mask but no supply to it, anyway I did the spraying outside. Tell me, was it any good? I had to admit, the mask was red 'inside' (I was spraying a Ford red!). What was your nose like? Red! There you are, fking useless. Plus if you wear the cheap ste masks most people wear, within a quarter of an hour of wearing it, it will be wet (from your breathing), and any virus bacteria will get in. You can wear one, and believe it will help. It won't. Not unless you have proper breathing apparatus.
So what should I do, I asked? Stop worrying he said. I said I'm not worried! What else? WASH YOUR HANDS regularly! If you have to sneeze, do it into your elbow. My elbow? Yes. If you do it into your hand, you'll open the door into the shop or supermarket or toilet and ...BINGO! If you have covid-19, so will the next person opening that door (probably) thanks to you. HYGIENE. Not hard. But apparently difficult for many people!

And something else. This is a virus pod at the JR Hospital near me. They as the microbiol chappie told me forgotten something. What if the weather goes all wintry (highly likely he said, you know, this time of year - can you remember those snow drifts in April in 1981 etc. The person(s) inside the pod won't die of coronavirus, they f freeze to death! Must say, I hadn't thought of that!


And, god forbid, should you have the bad luck to catch it in Lincoln, this is there Hospital covid-19 pod!!!
Not the yellow bins (or maybe it is?), it is the green TENT!
Oh dear, this country, eh?

[anonymous-user]

slipstream 1985 said:

https://youtu.be/WprMPkKscwo?t=16

some basic prepping being done in Scotland already!

PH style

[isaldiri]

V6 Pushfit said:

What are your figures ?

For every 9 people who have left hospital 1 has died. What roughly is that as a % would you hazard a guess. Go on....

I repeat, the current data has very obvious gaps. BS in, BS out in this case so blanket using dead/recovered is meaningless.

I'm not (unlike you clearly) qualified to make the assumptions required to come up with a reasonable estimate of the fatality rate. However if I were to be actually expected to come up with a number, I would make damn sure it was an estimate which could be used for some kind of reasonable decision making process and was one that didn't drastically change in 2 weeks....

[philv]

Gary C said:

philv said:

Disagree.
That is not logical.

They may not be totally effective, but they obviously offer some protection.

In what way.

Obviously the virus can pass through easily. I suppose it could catch some droplets of fluid, but then it will hold them in your face until they evaporate enough for the virus to be breathed in.

Can't be bothered to go in depth.
But, a few examples
Someone talks to you,,,spittle lands on mask, not in your mouth.
You will touch your mouth less after touching surfaces.
Someone sneezes a few meters away....maybe a couple of droplets heading your way (not everyone is full on in the spray field) and land on the mask.
Etc etc

Of course if you mess around with the mask it is far less effective, as it is if you lick it afterwards
It's use-fullness is based on using it properly and it fitting properly.

It also stops you spreading the virus....sneezes, spittle whilst talking etc.

etc etc etc

Every little helps.

If we all walked around in full tenth bin lens with holes cut out for eyes and legs it would even betrer!

[Graveworm]

Gary C said:

In what way.

Obviously the virus can pass through easily. I suppose it could catch some droplets of fluid, but then it will hold them in your face until they evaporate enough for the virus to be breathed in.

Depends on the mask. Most people are wearing surgical masks etc which do very little to protect them but protect others from them which can still help a lot with containment.
A proper N95 respirator can help protect the wearer.

[anonymous-user]

isaldiri said:

I repeat, the current data has very obvious gaps. BS in, BS out in this case so blanket using dead/recovered is meaningless.

I'm not (unlike you clearly) qualified to make the assumptions required to come up with a reasonable estimate of the fatality rate. However if I were to be actually expected to come up with a number, I would make damn sure it was an estimate which could be used for some kind of reasonable decision making process and was one that didn't drastically change in 2 weeks....

The 9 and 1 figures are up to date. You’re saying they’re 1%?

[Petrus1983]

Gary C said:

philv said:

Disagree.
That is not logical.

They may not be totally effective, but they obviously offer some protection.

In what way.

Obviously the virus can pass through easily. I suppose it could catch some droplets of fluid, but then it will hold them in your face until they evaporate enough for the virus to be breathed in.

I had lunch with a previous head of department at the Tropical Disease Centre who said they were useless too and I’m happy to take his word for it. He explained why, but there’s not much point posting it.

[tertius]

V6 Pushfit said:

isaldiri said:

I repeat, the current data has very obvious gaps. BS in, BS out in this case so blanket using dead/recovered is meaningless.

I'm not (unlike you clearly) qualified to make the assumptions required to come up with a reasonable estimate of the fatality rate. However if I were to be actually expected to come up with a number, I would make damn sure it was an estimate which could be used for some kind of reasonable decision making process and was one that didn't drastically change in 2 weeks....

The 9 and 1 figures are up to date. You’re saying they’re 1%?

Your 9 and 1 numbers ignore those who catch it and don’t go to hospital, why?

[anonymous-user]

Graveworm said:

Depends on the mask. Most people are wearing surgical masks etc which do very little to protect them but protect others from them which can still help a lot with containment.
A proper N95 respirator can help protect the wearer.

Apparently the cheap throwaway ones do have a benefit and clog up slightly so increasing filtration. They’re rubbish though compared with the N95 but if anything they’re a constant reminder whilst wearing!