US presidential election 2020:Winner?

[Carl_Manchester]

Teddy Lop said:

I often ponder how many true swing voters there are out there, or if instead much of what is ascribed to swing voting is the party with the better overall candidate energising more support from their own while the lessor candidates flock stay at home, or vote for an indy

This is not to say swing voters don't exist, to pre empt the trivial.

The elections are that tight in the USA that the swing voters hold the power right now. The ones that swung in the last election were the Bernie Sanders supporters who voted for Trump simply because of the promised investment in poorer states.

If Sanders loses the nomination this is good news for Trump, if Sanders wins the nomination, its good news for Trump.

A bit like Corbyn in the U.K what we really need is for Sanders, Biden, Warren, Bloomberg. Pelosi, Clinton to retire and then Trump will retire after his 4 years.

From the rubble of all that the US system can rebuild around people like Buttigieg, Michelle Obama and Trump-Jr.

[Lucas CAV]

What has trump jr got to offer?

[turbobloke]

Lucas CAV said:

What has trump jr got to offer?

Ask his fellow Democrats, surely they know him well.

At the moment it's name-calling time. Which as we know, worked well with Trump Sr last time, and is working just as well this time

[Jimbeaux]

turbobloke said:

CNN on cable has been offering comedy gold this morning. With young Bloomberg rising in the polls, his vexed 'fellow' Democrats have been lining up to have a pop at him. It's not fair he's a billionaire, it's not fair he's got advertising, it's not fair his popularity is growing. It's not fair. There's nothing like learning lessons to make progress, and that's nothing like it.

I keep telling people that Mike will rise. Yea, his assets go directly against the socialism wing of the Dems. There will be blood.

[Carl_Manchester]

Lucas CAV said:

What has trump jr got to offer?

We don’t know yet because the US system
needs a clear out - similar applied to Buttigieg.

Candidates on both sides will come out of partial left field next year.

[Jimbeaux]

Here is some interesting bits on voter turnout & strategy:

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/trump-drives-...

[ZX10R NIN]

Jimbeaux said:

I keep telling people that Mike will rise. Yea, his assets go directly against the socialism wing of the Dems. There will be blood.

Bloomberg is a republican parading as an Independent/Democrat.

[Jimbeaux]

ZX10R NIN said:

Bloomberg is a republican parading as an Independent/Democrat.

Well, a long while back he was a GOPer. Not for years. However, what he proposes is all Dem. He may bait and switch if he wins, like Bill Clinton did.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Monday 17th February 21:56

[inonthis]

ZX10R NIN said:

Bloomberg is a republican parading as an Independent/Democrat.

Bloomberg is actually a mermaid

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1229223340...

Trump will eat him for breakfast.

[Lazermilk]

inonthis said:

ZX10R NIN said:

Bloomberg is a republican parading as an Independent/Democrat.

Bloomberg is actually a mermaid

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1229223340...

Trump will eat him for breakfast.

Trump can lay his own eggs and cook him breakfast

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwqklRh2irA

[Jimbeaux]

Bloomberg qualified for his first debate. The upcoming Las Vegas debate. He trails only Sanders in some polls.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elect...

I don't know why so many "experts" gave him a single digit chance for the nomination, I suspected he would rise. Now, elections are imbued with the "Human factor" as well as policies and promises. That said, Bloomberg's charisma is right up there with a waterlogged noodle. Therefore, we will see how he comes out the other end. Much depends on who the media decides they want to win because they will tweak the coverage to favor or blunt accordingly.

Let's be hypothetical. If the the race on the Dem side ended up being between Bloomberg and Sanders, one might assume that Pete's and Biden's votes would go to Bloomberg. One may equally assume that Warren's votes would go to Sanders. Also bear in mind that some of those other votes make go nowhere and simply stay home. Given those quick and highly hypothetical scenarios, I still see Bloomberg edging Bernie out. Now, throw in the Bernie crowd and their still held disdain for how the DNC ripped them off in 2016, and all bets are off.

Las Vegas will be interesting.

[Jimbeaux]

There is speculation that the Dems could go into the convention contested. That has not happened in a long while, I believe 1972 IIRC. this happens when no candidate has a clear majority of delegates by the convention time. The conventional wisdom is that this is bad for the Dems; however, some see it as a silver lining in that they would coalesce just before the election and have fresher momentum.

[kowalski655]

Jimbeaux said:

Let's be hypothetical. If the the race on the Dem side ended up being between Bloomberg and Sanders, one might assume that Pete's and Biden's votes would go to Bloomberg. One may equally assume that Warren's votes would go to Sanders. Also bear in mind that some of those other votes make go nowhere and simply stay home.

Most polls show Bernie is second choice,even to Bidens supporters...

Jimbeaux said:

There is speculation that the Dems could go into the convention contested. That has not happened in a long while, I believe 1972 IIRC. this happens when no candidate has a clear majority of delegates by the convention time. The conventional wisdom is that this is bad for the Dems; however, some see it as a silver lining in that they would coalesce just before the election and have fresher momentum.

but if it goes to a contested election, the DNCs super delegates are bound to screw over Bernie, big style

[Jimbeaux]

kowalski655 said:

but if it goes to a contested election, the DNCs super delegates are bound to screw over Bernie, big style

I believe you are correct. Bernie’s people may erupt.
You said Bernie comes in 2nd, do you mean to Mike?

[deeps]

Current market opinion on Betfair Exchange has Sanders at 2.4, Bloomberg at 3.3, Biden at 14, Buttigieg 15, and Clinton 28.0, for the Democratic nominee.

The 2020 winner market has President Trump as favourite and shortening, currently at 1.69 in from 2.5 following the silly impeachment pantomime.

I think he will most likely drift out a little during the next few months so could be worth a trade - lay now to back at a bigger price. Worst case scenario he doesn't drift out, but he won't shorten much from 1.69 so the potential gain outweighs the potential loss IMO.

[kowalski655]

Jimbeaux said:

I believe you are correct. Bernie’s people may erupt.
You said Bernie comes in 2nd, do you mean to Mike?

It would be ironic if Bernie got most votes from all the primaries, but didn't get the nomination
(Also a tragedy)
Re:2nd choice, I meant that if the more conservative candidates were to drop out, Berni would get their votes((according to the polls)

[amusingduck]

Bloomberg's being painted as a blue Trump over at the Independent

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bloomberg-tru...

Some rather shocking stuff in there, IMO. Hard to pick just one quote, but I'm going with this one:

indy said:

A recent GQ investigation revealed nearly 40 sexual harassment and discrimination lawsuits – a number on par with the dozens who accused Donald Trump of sexual misconduct during the 2016 campaign.

It's almost descending into "choose which Epstein Airways frequent flyer" you'd like to be president

[p1stonhead]

amusingduck said:

Bloomberg's being painted as a blue Trump over at the Independent

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bloomberg-tru...

Some rather shocking stuff in there, IMO. Hard to pick just one quote, but I'm going with this one:

indy said:

A recent GQ investigation revealed nearly 40 sexual harassment and discrimination lawsuits – a number on par with the dozens who accused Donald Trump of sexual misconduct during the 2016 campaign.

It's almost descending into "choose which Epstein Airways frequent flyer" you'd like to be president

How the fk can a country with so many people come down to maybe these two?

I guess you have to be insanely rich to run and that’s it?

[GroundZero]

amusingduck said:

Bloomberg's being painted as a blue Trump over at the Independent

I am thinking its all about the woke.
If you're not fully woke then media outlets will brand you as being Hitler or Trump.

Bloomberg has a history of making some non-woke comments, which of course means he is in the bad books with those who are on the "inequality" warpath agendas.

[Lazermilk]

p1stonhead said:

amusingduck said:

Bloomberg's being painted as a blue Trump over at the Independent

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bloomberg-tru...

Some rather shocking stuff in there, IMO. Hard to pick just one quote, but I'm going with this one:

indy said:

A recent GQ investigation revealed nearly 40 sexual harassment and discrimination lawsuits – a number on par with the dozens who accused Donald Trump of sexual misconduct during the 2016 campaign.

It's almost descending into "choose which Epstein Airways frequent flyer" you'd like to be president

How the fk can a country with so many people come down to maybe these two?

I guess you have to be insanely rich to run and that’s it?