US presidential election 2020:Winner?

US presidential election 2020:Winner?

Poll: US presidential election 2020:Winner?

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Total Members Polled: 684

Biden: 18%
Trump: 70%
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Discussion

Jimbeaux

33,791 posts

230 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Fittster said:
Has Sanders pledged not to run as an independent if he doesn't get the DNC nomination?

If he runs as an independent, he'd surely cripple any establishment DNC candidates chances. It's not as if he's got any real commitment to the party and at his age, there won't be another chance.


Edited by Fittster on Thursday 20th February 23:33
Good question Fitt. I really have not heard. You are correct that would a game changer.

Jimbeaux

33,791 posts

230 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Fittster said:
I don't understand why people on this forum are so certain that if the DNC nominate Sanders, then Trump wins the election.

I understand that this is a very right wing forum but if you type "can bernie sanders beat trump" into google, it doesn't come back with a Trump win being a foregone conclusion.

For example:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_po...

If the DNC have an angry Bernie running as an independent while they put up Bloomberg or Biden to take on Trump, then you'd assume that the vote on the left would be split giving a simple victory to Trump.
That would split the vote. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if they stay home if he does not get the nomination even if he doesn’t run as an independent.

turbobloke

103,742 posts

259 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Fittster said:
I don't understand why people on this forum are so certain that if the DNC nominate Sanders, then Trump wins the election.

I understand that this is a very right wing forum but if you type "can bernie sanders beat trump" into google, it doesn't come back with a Trump win being a foregone conclusion.

For example:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_po...

If the DNC have an angry Bernie running as an independent while they put up Bloomberg or Biden to take on Trump, then you'd assume that the vote on the left would be split giving a simple victory to Trump.
Those blue column entries have 7 or 8 names (didn't count, that's an estimate).

Will Trump eventually go up against only 1 opponent?

Try Oddschecker
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/u...

Or Oddsshark
https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presid...

Or BetFred
https://www.betfred.com/sports/event/6452473.2

Etc

BTW that hyperbolic description of PH ^ is way off the mark, it looks like a pop at people who don't agree with failed leftist dogma.

Teddy Lop

8,294 posts

66 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Fittster said:
I don't understand why people on this forum are so certain that if the DNC nominate Sanders, then Trump wins the election.

I understand that this is a very right wing forum but if you type "can bernie sanders beat trump" into google, it doesn't come back with a Trump win being a foregone conclusion.

For example:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_po...

If the DNC have an angry Bernie running as an independent while they put up Bloomberg or Biden to take on Trump, then you'd assume that the vote on the left would be split giving a simple victory to Trump.
we have many a leftie too but going on threads like this, if you've found a way to filter them out I'd patent the process.

One thing most mainstream media has consistently shown in recent times is that it really doesn't have its finger on the pulse when it comes to votes, or understand how people are thinking.

grumbledoak

31,499 posts

232 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Teddy Lop said:
One thing most mainstream media has consistently shown in recent times is that it really doesn't have its finger on the pulse when it comes to votes, or understand how people are thinking.
The mainstream media is not trying to portray reality. It is trying to influence it.

Vanden Saab

13,892 posts

73 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Fittster said:
I don't understand why people on this forum are so certain that if the DNC nominate Sanders, then Trump wins the election.

I understand that this is a very right wing forum but if you type "can bernie sanders beat trump" into google, it doesn't come back with a Trump win being a foregone conclusion.

For example:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_po...

If the DNC have an angry Bernie running as an independent while they put up Bloomberg or Biden to take on Trump, then you'd assume that the vote on the left would be split giving a simple victory to Trump.
If you had used the bulk of the UK media and twitter etc. to forecast the last General Election in the UK you would have put your money on Corbyn. Look at the actual figures regarding voter satisfaction and look at what those floating/ quiet voters in the USA ie. the ones who really matter are saying and you will see another story. I am going to go out on a limb and suggest Trump will win with a larger share of the vote compared to last time in much the same way Boris did.

turbobloke

103,742 posts

259 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Vanden Saab said:
Fittster said:
I don't understand why people on this forum are so certain that if the DNC nominate Sanders, then Trump wins the election.

I understand that this is a very right wing forum but if you type "can bernie sanders beat trump" into google, it doesn't come back with a Trump win being a foregone conclusion.

For example:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_po...

If the DNC have an angry Bernie running as an independent while they put up Bloomberg or Biden to take on Trump, then you'd assume that the vote on the left would be split giving a simple victory to Trump.
If you had used the bulk of the UK media and twitter etc. to forecast the last General Election in the UK you would have put your money on Corbyn.
Exactly, however unlike the febrile domains of Twitter and Facebook as seen on PH due to PHers posting tweets etc a large majority if not all opinion polls had the Conservatives winning with a clear majority, iirc the average lead over the weeks before the vote was 9 percentage points. Polls aren't perfect predictors, there's no such thing, but they offer objective information as opposed to SM and the pooling of ignorance.

Carl_Manchester

12,103 posts

261 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Fittster said:
I don't understand why people on this forum are so certain that if the DNC nominate Sanders, then Trump wins the election.
The first answer is that some Democratic voters won’t turn out for Sanders and will stay away from the ballot come election day.

The second answer is similar to last years UK election result, where Labour were stuck inside an echo chamber.

Due to the U.S electoral system Sanders has a high probability of losing because his support base is too concentrated in metropolitan areas like New York and California. Sanders lacks the wider appeal into places like Texas in order to get the win in the bag.

I don’t think that there will be many people here who will speak unkindly of Sanders, he seems a nice bloke and all, getting Americans to mobilise and vote en-mass for him however, will be a great challenge.



Challo

10,043 posts

154 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Carl_Manchester said:
The first answer is that some Democratic voters won’t turn out for Sanders and will stay away from the ballot come election day.

The second answer is similar to last years UK election result, where Labour were stuck inside an echo chamber.

Due to the U.S electoral system Sanders has a high probability of losing because his support base is too concentrated in metropolitan areas like New York and California. Sanders lacks the wider appeal into places like Texas in order to get the win in the bag.

I don’t think that there will be many people here who will speak unkindly of Sanders, he seems a nice bloke and all, getting Americans to mobilise and vote en-mass for him however, will be a great challenge.
Agree with that. I dont think Sanders has the pull in areas outside the metro base, and get across the line and beat Trump. Plus he is 78, issues with his heart and will he survive two terms?

Jimbeaux

33,791 posts

230 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
grumbledoak said:
The mainstream media is not trying to portray reality. It is trying to influence it.
This^^^ You sir win today’s prize for “spot on & to the point”.

unrepentant

21,212 posts

255 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Carl_Manchester said:
Fittster said:
I don't understand why people on this forum are so certain that if the DNC nominate Sanders, then Trump wins the election.
The first answer is that some Democratic voters won’t turn out for Sanders and will stay away from the ballot come election day.

The second answer is similar to last years UK election result, where Labour were stuck inside an echo chamber.

Due to the U.S electoral system Sanders has a high probability of losing because his support base is too concentrated in metropolitan areas like New York and California. Sanders lacks the wider appeal into places like Texas in order to get the win in the bag.

I don’t think that there will be many people here who will speak unkindly of Sanders, he seems a nice bloke and all, getting Americans to mobilise and vote en-mass for him however, will be a great challenge.
Sanders biggest problem would be turning out the independent vote. The base would come out whoever the candidate is and the one advantage that Bernie has is that the young people would turn out for him in large numbers, moreso than they would for any of the others.

Texas doesn't matter, it's going red whatever happens. The only states that really count, like always, are the purple swing states. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado, Florida.

Jimbeaux

33,791 posts

230 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Challo said:
Agree with that. I dont think Sanders has the pull in areas outside the metro base, and get across the line and beat Trump. Plus he is 78, issues with his heart and will he survive two terms?
Age is different for different people. I am not aware of any health issues with Bloomberg, but he is slightly older than Sanders. Biden is just under Sanders’ age iirc.

Jimbeaux

33,791 posts

230 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Challo said:
Agree with that. I dont think Sanders has the pull in areas outside the metro base, and get across the line and beat Trump. Plus he is 78, issues with his heart and will he survive two terms?
Age is different for different people. I am not aware of any health issues with Bloomberg, but he is slightly older than Sanders. Biden is just under Sanders’ age iirc.

Jimbeaux

33,791 posts

230 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Some topless women interrupted Sanders’ rally the other day wielding signs saying “let dairy die” in protest of cattle and animal exploitation, etc. when asked why they were topless the leader replied; “ We chose to be topless in solidarity with exploited cows”. Hollywood would struggle to write better comedy. smile

kowalski655

Original Poster:

14,599 posts

142 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
unrepentant said:
Sanders biggest problem would be turning out the independent vote. The base would come out whoever the candidate is and the one advantage that Bernie has is that the young people would turn out for him in large numbers, moreso than they would for any of the others.

Texas doesn't matter, it's going red whatever happens. The only states that really count, like always, are the purple swing states. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado, Florida.
IIRC Bernie has a big lead among independent s, bigger than Trump had in '16

Jimbeaux

33,791 posts

230 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
kowalski655 said:
IIRC Bernie has a big lead among independent s, bigger than Trump had in '16
Independents usually caucus with the GOP. I cannot see the independents going more to Bernie than Trump.

Jimbeaux

33,791 posts

230 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
If Biden does well in South Carolina, he will have some momentum. Biden does well with black votes and especially in South Carolina. If Biden comes in third or so, that may well take him out.

Jimbeaux

33,791 posts

230 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
If Biden does well in South Carolina, he will have some momentum. Biden does well with black votes and especially in South Carolina. If Biden comes in third or so, that may well take him out.

Jimbeaux

33,791 posts

230 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Another tidbit. Culinary and service workers are abundant in Nevada. Those workers have a union that have very generous private health plans. They are not fans of Bernie’s government only healthcare. That may have some voting effects.

JagLover

42,265 posts

234 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Jimbeaux said:
Some topless women interrupted Sanders’ rally the other day wielding signs saying “let dairy die” in protest of cattle and animal exploitation, etc. when asked why they were topless the leader replied; “ We chose to be topless in solidarity with exploited cows”. Hollywood would struggle to write better comedy. smile
Don't discourage them. All political rallies could do with some topless women.
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