End of petrol and hybrid

End of petrol and hybrid

Author
Discussion

Miserablegit

Original Poster:

4,021 posts

109 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
I see Boris is now including hybrid vehicles in his plans to remove petrol vehicles from sale from 2035. There is to be a consultation but we all know consultations are a waste of time as the politicians do what they like anyway based on whatever is popular at that time.

After an EV owner said their car was scrap after 8 years I looked at battery warranties. Tesla give a warranty for 150,000 miles or 8 years. That effectively means a Tesla will be scrap after 8 years does it not?

Not particularly green. Ok for emissions at point of use.


marksx

5,052 posts

190 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Yeah right. As if there will be the infrastructure in place for that.

They will still be arguing about smart motorways and a part built HS2 in 25 years.

DuraAce

4,240 posts

160 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Miserablegit said:
Tesla give a warranty for 150,000 miles or 8 years. That effectively means a Tesla will be scrap after 8 years does it not?
I wouldn't say so. BMW will only give you 3 yrs warranty on an M5 - doesn't mean its scrap after expiry does it? You just need to find/develop cost effective ways of fixing and looking after them.

Whilst currently there isn't a great deal of garages fixing tesla cars (& batteries in general) this will change over time as more and more cars move beyond the warranty period. There will be a whole new industry fixing batteries, replacing duff cells etc etc.

Pooh

3,692 posts

253 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Hybrids are already becoming unnecessary as battery range increases, they are also complicated and expensive to make so they will disappear anyway. As for the batteries, I have done 60k miles in my Zoe and have not noticed any reduction in range so I think the battery life issue is exaggerated and if the batteries do degrade too much for a car they can be recycled or reused.

Puddenchucker

4,086 posts

218 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
DuraAce said:
Miserablegit said:
Tesla give a warranty for 150,000 miles or 8 years. That effectively means a Tesla will be scrap after 8 years does it not?
I wouldn't say so. BMW will only give you 3 yrs warranty on an M5 - doesn't mean its scrap after expiry does it?
Wot he said.

It simply means it's no longer covered by warrantly after 8 years 150k miles. It doesn't mean it will stop functioning.

Also as demand and production capacity for EV batteries increases, costs should come down and the infrastructure (garages/eorkshops) will expand to deal with repair, refurbishment/reconditioning and replacement. Just like internal combustion engines & gearboxes.

Chicken Chaser

7,786 posts

224 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Manufacturers can make little electric runarounds but where's the electric vans and trucks that will ultimately change the game? I need a large vehicle that can tow up to 2 tonnes with a good range.

fatboy b

9,493 posts

216 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Miserablegit said:
I see Boris is now including hybrid vehicles in his plans to remove petrol vehicles from sale from 2035. There is to be a consultation but we all know consultations are a waste of time as the politicians do what they like anyway based on whatever is popular at that time.

After an EV owner said their car was scrap after 8 years I looked at battery warranties. Tesla give a warranty for 150,000 miles or 8 years. That effectively means a Tesla will be scrap after 8 years does it not?

Not particularly green. Ok for emissions at point of use.
Yet they take 13 years before they have offset all the non-green manufacturing processes and running costs until that point.

jamei303

3,002 posts

156 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
I wonder how quickly petrol stations will start disappearing. They won't all be converted into charging places or similar, I expect many urban site owners will now be planning for residential use.

A1VDY

3,575 posts

127 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Batteries on an old out dated EV will cost far more than the car is worth so yes both the BMW and tesla will be scrap.


Miserablegit

Original Poster:

4,021 posts

109 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
The battery warranties are (presumably) based on the predicted life of the battery -it is a sales technique. If the batteries last longer then it is in the interest of the manufacturer to give a longer warranty.
The example I was referencing was a Mitsubishi that was down to a 30mile range.

Maximising battery life seems to require not charging above 80/90% and not discharging too low (10%?). If so then realistic range is about 70% of advertised range. In a car with an advertised 300 mile range it’s only really about 210 miles on that basis.


skyrover

12,671 posts

204 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Soundbites.

No infrastructure, no public will, no money.

We are not China.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

254 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
fatboy b said:
Yet they take 13 years before they have offset all the non-green manufacturing processes and running costs until that point.
No they dont.

A500leroy

5,125 posts

118 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
i hope not cause until they come down to 4k with at least 6 yrs life left i can't afford one.

AlexiusG55

655 posts

156 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Chicken Chaser said:
Manufacturers can make little electric runarounds but where's the electric vans and trucks that will ultimately change the game? I need a large vehicle that can tow up to 2 tonnes with a good range.
Ford have an electric F-150 out next year. The Rivian R1T should begin delivery at a similar time and is rated to tow 5000 kg. And of course there's the Tesla Semi.

As for old batteries, remember that there is a market for them in the way there isn't for old IC parts. And I'm not just talking about recycling the metals- even when a battery's performance is degraded beyond what you want in a car, it's still useful for residential storage (Powerwall, etc).

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

254 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Theres a tesla with over 1 million kms in Holland and several close in LA.

Heres a Zoe with 345.000km and 96% SOH
https://twitter.com/RZOC/status/122370160669011968...

BMW i3 are lasting very well too.

Basically anything that isnt a leaf.

And batteries can be repaired, and recycled.

I dont expect I'll ever need to worry about my model 3 pack but if I do it has 4 easily replaceable modules I can put in crash recovered ones or cheap new ones as the cost of cells is still falling fast.

Pooh

3,692 posts

253 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Miserablegit said:
The battery warranties are (presumably) based on the predicted life of the battery -it is a sales technique. If the batteries last longer then it is in the interest of the manufacturer to give a longer warranty.
The example I was referencing was a Mitsubishi that was down to a 30mile range.

Maximising battery life seems to require not charging above 80/90% and not discharging too low (10%?). If so then realistic range is about 70% of advertised range. In a car with an advertised 300 mile range it’s only really about 210 miles on that basis.
The Mitsubishi is an old car with a small initial range, inferior battery chemistry and battery management so it is not particularly relevant to a modern BEV.
I charge my car to 100% most of the time and regularly run it down to 2% or less so I am using most of the 40kwh available for most of the time and as I said above I have not noticed any reduction in range.
I do most of my charging using public chargers and have had very few issues.

chow pan toon

12,385 posts

237 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Miserablegit said:
The battery warranties are (presumably) based on the predicted life of the battery -it is a sales technique. If the batteries last longer then it is in the interest of the manufacturer to give a longer warranty.
The example I was referencing was a Mitsubishi that was down to a 30mile range.

Maximising battery life seems to require not charging above 80/90% and not discharging too low (10%?). If so then realistic range is about 70% of advertised range. In a car with an advertised 300 mile range it’s only really about 210 miles on that basis.
Yep, all manufacturers do this. I was driving my 10 year old car yesterday. It's a real bind having to fit a new engine and gearbox every 3 years or 60,000 miles (whichever comes first).

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

254 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
AlexiusG55 said:
when a battery's performance is degraded beyond what you want in a car, it's still useful for residential storage (Powerwall, etc).
Each model 3 module when degraded to 60% is equivalent of a current powerwall 2 though Renault basically cancelled their 2nd use program for now because not enough degraded packs..

Lazadude

1,732 posts

161 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
It's all BS, but that's fine. means I can enjoy a C6 RS6, or a V10 M5 etc. Yes they'll be 30 years old, however car tech really hasn't changed as much in the last 10 years compared to the 10 before that.

There needs to be a breakthrough in battery tech before its even slightly feasible.


RobDickinson

31,343 posts

254 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
10 years ago you had the Tesla roadster, 2-3kw charging and not much else. Not even a leaf.

Now you have cars with 370 mile range, 2.4s to 60 and up to 350kw charging

In 15 years no one is going to be buying cars with pistons in.