Is it me but does the Funds market look a bit frothy

Is it me but does the Funds market look a bit frothy

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Discussion

Vergis

Original Poster:

549 posts

241 months

Wednesday 19th February 2020
quotequote all
I have a shortlist of funds I want to have some exposure in but they all seem to be hitting close to all time highs.

But then a part of me thinks there will be an adjustment this year (not least the dreaded yield curve inverting last year with between 6-18 months lead time to a recession by historical accounts) and I rather have cash on the side lines.

The only area I would be slightly comfortable with is Gold. There is bound to be central government monetry policy easing to occur in the next year or so which will only help the price of Gold. I am not keen on investing in Gold funds but it seems the best bet at the moment.

What are everyones thoughts?

NRS

22,078 posts

200 months

Wednesday 19th February 2020
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People have been posting the same for years. At some point it will be right, but if you'd held off say 2 years you'd have missed a lot of gains. It's pretty much impossible to time the market well. If you're worried then just buy in a bit at a time. If the market drops it will be a benefit, but if they go up you'll lose out on some gains.

98elise

26,365 posts

160 months

Friday 21st February 2020
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I'm actually starting to cash out of my SIPP funds. All time highs, and we have the caronavirus starting to impact US firms

https://amp-ft-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.ft.c...


bitchstewie

50,767 posts

209 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
98elise said:
I'm actually starting to cash out of my SIPP funds. All time highs, and we have the caronavirus starting to impact US firms

https://amp-ft-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.ft.c...
Cash out or move to a less risky position?

mikeiow

5,285 posts

129 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Defo feels like we are well overdue some “corrections”. A glance at any 10+ year view tells is the meteoric rise cannot continue as we are.

Hard to see what will trigger it though. US elections? Coronavirus worsening? Trade tensions?

No idea. I have just shunted another 10% of my pension into a “pre-retirement fixed interest” option within Aviva though wink
Colour me nervous, but I now have 50% of them in that+bonds+gilts: not immune to a crash, but ought to do better than the other half (US + world trackers). Maybe spin

Sheepshanks

32,519 posts

118 months

Friday 21st February 2020
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US markets took a big hit when they opened yesterday, but they did recover somewhat during the day. This was following some indexes hitting record highs the day before.

98elise

26,365 posts

160 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
bhstewie said:
98elise said:
I'm actually starting to cash out of my SIPP funds. All time highs, and we have the caronavirus starting to impact US firms

https://amp-ft-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.ft.c...
Cash out or move to a less risky position?
Cash (within the SIPP) in the short term. I started selling this week and have liquidated 30% of my funds (by value).

If the situation with corona looks like it's going to impact the stock market then I want to be far less exposed while things settle.

98elise

26,365 posts

160 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
bhstewie said:
98elise said:
I'm actually starting to cash out of my SIPP funds. All time highs, and we have the caronavirus starting to impact US firms

https://amp-ft-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.ft.c...
Cash out or move to a less risky position?
Cash (within the SIPP) in the short term. I started selling this week and have liquidated 30% of my funds (by value).

If the situation with corona looks like it's going to impact the stock market then I want to be far less exposed while things settle.

Phooey

12,574 posts

168 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
If we could predict the economy/markets we'd all be millionaires. Personally I think it's more risky being out of it than in it, so unless I was needing the money soon I'd avoid too much in cash.

FWIW I'm in cash at the mo while waiting for my transfer from Standard Life to complete to IM. The longer I'm in cash the more nervous I am.

p_k_n

185 posts

90 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
I think gold and metals could be a good place to be this year with everything that is going on and the increasing uncertainty. I've just started adding my monthly ISA contributions to the ruffer gold fund and plan on doing mostly this for the rest of the year.

superlightr

12,842 posts

262 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Phooey said:
If we could predict the economy/markets we'd all be millionaires. Personally I think it's more risky being out of it than in it, so unless I was needing the money soon I'd avoid too much in cash.

FWIW I'm in cash at the mo while waiting for my transfer from Standard Life to complete to IM. The longer I'm in cash the more nervous I am.
where are you looking at putting it with IM? Ive got 50% with IM Cautious 25% with PH equity and the rest split over Indexs 20/40

Phooey

12,574 posts

168 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
superlightr said:
where are you looking at putting it with IM? Ive got 50% with IM Cautious 25% with PH equity and the rest split over Indexs 20/40
It varies between portfolios.

Daughters JISA £200 monthly payment currently buys 90% IM Index-100 and 10% PH Equity. Her transfer from HSBC CTF will 50/50 split between IM Index-60 and Optimum Income. My thinking was - happy for the monthly payment to take max-risk as it should buy on the ups and downs whereas playing a little bit more cautious with the transfer lump sum of approx £25k. I also wanted a bit of Index so I could see how it compares with Optimum.

I currently have an ISA with IM and the monthly payment buys 100% Optimum Global Growth. The transfer (lump sum) coming from Standard Life I need to have a quick think about where it's going (Nik is going to call me the minute it hits the IM cash account). I'm thinking of putting all of it (the transfer) into Optimum Income. Might also switch the monthly payment to include 10% PH Equity (so will be 90% Optimum Global Growth and 10% PH Equity).

SIPP transfer - I think I voted for it to go all into Optimum Income? Again, need to chat to Nik once it hits their cash account.

Wifey ISA - possibly same as my ISA with the transfer.


Any thoughts on the above?

superlightr

12,842 posts

262 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Phooey said:
superlightr said:
where are you looking at putting it with IM? Ive got 50% with IM Cautious 25% with PH equity and the rest split over Indexs 20/40
It varies between portfolios.

Daughters JISA £200 monthly payment currently buys 90% IM Index-100 and 10% PH Equity. Her transfer from HSBC CTF will 50/50 split between IM Index-60 and Optimum Income. My thinking was - happy for the monthly payment to take max-risk as it should buy on the ups and downs whereas playing a little bit more cautious with the transfer lump sum of approx £25k. I also wanted a bit of Index so I could see how it compares with Optimum.

I currently have an ISA with IM and the monthly payment buys 100% Optimum Global Growth. The transfer (lump sum) coming from Standard Life I need to have a quick think about where it's going (Nik is going to call me the minute it hits the IM cash account). I'm thinking of putting all of it (the transfer) into Optimum Income. Might also switch the monthly payment to include 10% PH Equity (so will be 90% Optimum Global Growth and 10% PH Equity).

SIPP transfer - I think I voted for it to go all into Optimum Income? Again, need to chat to Nik once it hits their cash account.

Wifey ISA - possibly same as my ISA with the transfer.


Any thoughts on the above?
I think similar thoughts to you as well. Slightly different direction as the main pot was a pension so a lump sum split as mentioned above but with little/no monthly payments in. The PH equity chunk was my "fun" risky part as it is earmarked as a car fund so not vital but if it does well then ill be really happy. But wanted the majority relatively stable.

Did move an ISA over and again as its a lump sum its gone into the IM Cautious but any further payments into that will likely be the IM PH equity for the same reasons as you as drip feeding in is a good idea.

With the trackers im slowing moving funds out into the managed areas as im coming around to liking the idea of them being adjusted to reflect market changes/views.

Must admit I enjoy checking the dashboard twice a day....



Phooey

12,574 posts

168 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
superlightr said:
I think similar thoughts to you as well. Slightly different direction as the main pot was a pension so a lump sum split as mentioned above but with little/no monthly payments in. The PH equity chunk was my "fun" risky part as it is earmarked as a car fund so not vital but if it does well then ill be really happy. But wanted the majority relatively stable.

Did move an ISA over and again as its a lump sum its gone into the IM Cautious but any further payments into that will likely be the IM PH equity for the same reasons as you as drip feeding in is a good idea.

With the trackers im slowing moving funds out into the managed areas as im coming around to liking the idea of them being adjusted to reflect market changes/views.

Must admit I enjoy checking the dashboard twice a day....
Only time will tell if our choices are good smile but yes, my gut feeling is Optimum over Index... and it's still much cheaper than my previous IFA / Wrap set up!

For comparison (and a bit more diversification) I also opened a Vanguard ISA (LS80). I'm hoping IM add a % gain/loss indicator to their dashboard like Vanguard does - it's hard to tell at the mo, but I *think* IM are showing stronger returns vs the LS80 (17/11/19 to 21/02/20 +5.41% for the LS80)

I'm also on my IM dashboard twice daily... checking if my transfer has completed! smash

superlightr

12,842 posts

262 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Phooey said:
Only time will tell if our choices are good smile but yes, my gut feeling is Optimum over Index... and it's still much cheaper than my previous IFA / Wrap set up!

For comparison (and a bit more diversification) I also opened a Vanguard ISA (LS80). I'm hoping IM add a % gain/loss indicator to their dashboard like Vanguard does - it's hard to tell at the mo, but I *think* IM are showing stronger returns vs the LS80 (17/11/19 to 21/02/20 +5.41% for the LS80)

I'm also on my IM dashboard twice daily... checking if my transfer has completed! smash
Its the first time we have put money anywhere save for banks or a basic pension which was not doing very well. So was a big jump and learning curve to actually try to get the funds to work a bit harder and hopefully do well.

we are booked to go the IM Brands Hatch day - Will you be around then to say hello or another event and part of the country?


Edited by superlightr on Friday 21st February 12:07

malks222

1,851 posts

138 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
not really that concerned, I have regular payments to isa/ sipp/ jisa (new born daughter) and expecting the money to be in there for 20-30yrs before I need it.

I’m well aware there’s going to be ups and down over the period. But my plan is regular monthly payments, buying into fund, upping the regular payment slightly each year and just letting it ride.

I do keep an eye on funds and look at who’s charging what fees etc.... but for now I’m happy to just keep feeding the pot and letting the funds do their thing.

red_slr

17,122 posts

188 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
2018 was not that great of a year overall, so 2019 has IMHO just been a rebound. 2020, I think we will be ok for another year.

2021 might be another story. Just my gut feeling.

mikeiow

5,285 posts

129 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
Phooey said:
If we could predict the economy/markets we'd all be millionaires. Personally I think it's more risky being out of it than in it, so unless I was needing the money soon I'd avoid too much in cash.

FWIW I'm in cash at the mo while waiting for my transfer from Standard Life to complete to IM. The longer I'm in cash the more nervous I am.
I'd agree with the first line: in my case, being close to the age of jacking things in, I may need some money sooner....but I also want to have some lower risk elements.
The latter? Well, a few weeks or even a few months isn't gonna loose out massively to inflation, so I wouldn't be especially nervous.

superlightr said:
I think similar thoughts to you as well. Slightly different direction as the main pot was a pension so a lump sum split as mentioned above but with little/no monthly payments in. The PH equity chunk was my "fun" risky part as it is earmarked as a car fund so not vital but if it does well then ill be really happy. But wanted the majority relatively stable.

Did move an ISA over and again as its a lump sum its gone into the IM Cautious but any further payments into that will likely be the IM PH equity for the same reasons as you as drip feeding in is a good idea.

With the trackers im slowing moving funds out into the managed areas as im coming around to liking the idea of them being adjusted to reflect market changes/views.

Must admit I enjoy checking the dashboard twice a day....
Twice a day. It's a terrible habit, eh! Great on the way up.....more nerve-wracking on the way down.....

Phooey

12,574 posts

168 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
superlightr said:
we are booked to go the IM Brands Hatch day - Will you be around then to say hello or another event and part of the country?
Nothing booked as of yet.. I said to Nik I wasn't too fussed tbh. I'll have the jacket though hehe

mikeiow said:
The latter? Well, a few weeks or even a few months isn't gonna loose out massively to inflation, so I wouldn't be especially nervous.
It's not the inflation I'm worried about


VR99

1,258 posts

62 months

Friday 21st February 2020
quotequote all
malks222 said:
not really that concerned, I have regular payments to isa/ sipp/ jisa (new born daughter) and expecting the money to be in there for 20-30yrs before I need it.

I’m well aware there’s going to be ups and down over the period. But my plan is regular monthly payments, buying into fund, upping the regular payment slightly each year and just letting it ride.

I do keep an eye on funds and look at who’s charging what fees etc.... but for now I’m happy to just keep feeding the pot and letting the funds do their thing.
This is exactly what I am intending to do. I drip feed a small proportion of my monthly income to a VLS 100 and it's possible there will be a correction but who knows when? I don't have a crystal ball...not so fussed with the short term market gyrations so will stick it out accepting that I'm exposed to the swings in the market at the level of risk I've taken. I also recently increased my monthly contributions.