US presidential election 2020:Winner? Vol.2

US presidential election 2020:Winner? Vol.2

Poll: US presidential election 2020:Winner? Vol.2

Total Members Polled: 343

Joseph R Biden: 53%
Donald J Trump: 44%
A.N. Other : 3%
Author
Discussion

andymadmak

14,482 posts

269 months

Tuesday 9th June 2020
quotequote all
I correctly called the result of the 2016 election months before it happened. I remember taking considerable stick on here (from some posters who are posting on this very thread) for saying that Trump would win.
I didn't support Trump, I just saw that America didn't have an overwhelming appetite for Hillary Clinton, and that meant that Trump was the change candidate.

If you'd asked me the 'who will win' question before Covid and Floyd I would have said Trump for a second term, and at a canter too. He'd done enough on key economic issues and had enough buyable (for his supporters) excuses/reasons for his failures. I was teasing American colleagues in January that they had another 4 more years coming, and to be candid a good few agreed that that was the likely outcome, despite them being dyed in the wool democrats. The decision to select Biden as the candidate only served to compound their despair. Creepy Joe has an awful lot of skeletons (apparently) and many Democrats feared that the bones would start rattling once the campaign proper got underway.

Today I'm calling a Biden win. Narrow, but still a win. Had the Democrats found a rather better candidate then they would have walked it, but as it stands they will win anyway thanks to Trumps utter meltdown in recent weeks. I simply don't think he (Trump) can pull back up from this. The mask has slipped too far.
The only thing that can save Trump is if Biden has something truly awful in his closet, in which case we'll be back to 2016 and the 'least worst choice' scenario! (Tragically)

I work for an American company the days, and I spend a lot of time there. People I have spoken to said it was OK to have a President that said embarrassing things because he wasn't a real politician. People could just shrug them off as just another Donaldism, whilst quietly acknowledging that maybe, in some way, he might have had a point. - - that was the clever part of Trumps messaging and his talking BS, people will interpret things in their own way and be charitable with interpretations if the person saying stuff is not a polished politician. Plus the more that the media attacked him, the stronger he got. Remember that the media is trusted even less than the politicians these days!

But that's all gone. The walk to the church may come to be seen as a turning point - the point when the religious centre right abandoned Trump in sufficient numbers to see Biden over the line.
The coming months are going to be interesting.

The question is, when (if) Biden wins, how is he going to make meaningful change?

Beati Dogu

8,861 posts

138 months

Tuesday 9th June 2020
quotequote all
I doubt Biden is capable of changing his own socks. The guy clearly has dementia and has trouble handling pat-a-cake, underarm questions from the toadying media. The Dems will have to make up excuses to cancel the presidential debates. Even with the media giving them the questions before hand, he's never going to remember the replies the've prepared for him.

Countdown

39,686 posts

195 months

Tuesday 9th June 2020
quotequote all
Beati Dogu said:
I doubt Biden is capable of changing his own socks. The guy clearly has dementia and has trouble handling pat-a-cake, underarm questions from the toadying media. The Dems will have to make up excuses to cancel the presidential debates. Even with the media giving them the questions before hand, he's never going to remember the replies the've prepared for him.
Hopefully not being a complete like Trump might be enough for him to win.....

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 9th June 2020
quotequote all
Another stshow of the available choices. In a country of over 300 million people you have two geriatrics well beyond their best as the choice.
Irespective of your bias, thats apauling.

Trump got the floating vote numbers he did because he promised to change things for the better for the lower middle class. It all comes down to those voters and whether they feel betrayed or not. Everything else is fluff.

Vanden Saab

13,889 posts

73 months

Tuesday 9th June 2020
quotequote all
Byker28i said:
Vanden Saab said:
Byker28i said:
Joe Biden hits 50% in many Polls, thats something Clinton never managed and a sign of how badly trump is performing

Not a single poll in June 2016 had Clinton even touching 50%. Biden, meanwhile, reached at least 50% in three live interview polls this past week.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/07/politics/biden-...
Fake news again...
In June 2016 three polls had Clinton at 51% and one at 50%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/pres...
Thanks, I looked through the historical data on fivethirtyeight and they showed Clinton never over 48%.
Strange that...I do not blame you though as CNN broke this story here

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/07/politics/biden-...

CNN said:
Biden, meanwhile, reached at least 50% in three live interview polls this past week (ABC News/Washington Post, Monmouth University and NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College).
This was the Washington Post story published on 26th June 2016...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-new-pol...


Washington Post said:
Nevertheless, in a head-to-head general election matchup, Clinton leads Trump 51 percent to 39 percent among registered voters nationwide, the poll found.
It comes to something when you cannot believe stories from CNN....

Bill

52,472 posts

254 months

Tuesday 9th June 2020
quotequote all
Beati Dogu said:
I doubt Biden is capable of changing his own socks. The guy clearly has dementia and has trouble handling pat-a-cake, underarm questions from the toadying media. The Dems will have to make up excuses to cancel the presidential debates. Even with the media giving them the questions before hand, he's never going to remember the replies the've prepared for him.
Biden? Or Trump?

FN2TypeR

7,091 posts

92 months

Tuesday 9th June 2020
quotequote all
Bill said:
Beati Dogu said:
I doubt Biden is capable of changing his own socks. The guy clearly has dementia and has trouble handling pat-a-cake, underarm questions from the toadying media. The Dems will have to make up excuses to cancel the presidential debates. Even with the media giving them the questions before hand, he's never going to remember the replies the've prepared for him.
Biden? Or Trump?
Yes

Byker28i

58,808 posts

216 months

Tuesday 9th June 2020
quotequote all
Vanden Saab said:
Strange that...I do not blame you though as CNN broke this story here
Weirdly you quoted where I gave exactly the same link in the original posts. I always provide sources...

Byker28i

58,808 posts

216 months

Tuesday 9th June 2020
quotequote all
andymadmak said:
I correctly called the result of the 2016 election months before it happened. I remember taking considerable stick on here (from some posters who are posting on this very thread) for saying that Trump would win.
trump was way behind until10 days before when Comey took his action that changed the election. Then there were the three crucial states that trump won that gave him the election,where voters found they coundn't vote as they were off the electoral register.

At the moment it doesn't look like trump has the same quality of his campaign team as he had in 2016, some of their direction and tactics were flawless and clever.
Whilst the bots are certainly pushing for trump, there's nowhere near the numbers now, and he's lost twitter although Zuckerberg seems still on board and allowing the fake and false social media posts supporting trump and sowing unrest.
Try as hard as he could and he's tried several times, trump couldn't manufacture dirt against Biden, so he hasn't that to use this time.
There is of course a lot to come for trump, numerous court cases, the Mueller report to be unredacted etc.

In his favour theGOP have successfully blocked most changed to districts, gerry mandering, voting changes, fixes to hackable voting machines and databases.

But I think it's too soon to call yet, although trump is doing his best to throw it away.

Beati Dogu said:
I doubt Biden is capable of changing his own socks. The guy clearly has dementia and has trouble handling pat-a-cake, underarm questions from the toadying media.
Interesting deflection using trumps technique of blaming the other guy for what you've done.

trumps claimed aderall addiction is showing heavily currently, certainly stumbling over words when trying to deliver. Not a patch on his competent delivery at his previous rallys. Add to that his really random ranting tweets, retweeting conspiracists, white supremacists etc. Just look at todays tweet about the 75 year old...

And this is trumps troubles this time. Everything he can possible level at Biden, trumps done many more times, much worse, or acts appallingly in the same area. He cannot risk attacking Biden, which is why he hasn't and his campaign team are running ads praising trump on the TV channels he watches

Countdown

39,686 posts

195 months

Tuesday 9th June 2020
quotequote all
jsf said:
Another stshow of the available choices. In a country of over 300 million people you have two geriatrics well beyond their best as the choice.
Irespective of your bias, thats apauling.

Trump got the floating vote numbers he did because he promised to change things for the better for the lower middle class. It all comes down to those voters and whether they feel betrayed or not. Everything else is fluff.
Is it Biden's policies you think are awful of his personal traits?

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 9th June 2020
quotequote all
Countdown said:
Is it Biden's policies you think are awful of his personal traits?
Neither candidate is of any use to the average American. There is no vision that will improve their future chances in life.

kowalski655

Original Poster:

14,599 posts

142 months

Tuesday 9th June 2020
quotequote all
Yeah,they had that chance & blew it big time

unrepentant

21,212 posts

255 months

Wednesday 10th June 2020
quotequote all
jsf said:
Countdown said:
Is it Biden's policies you think are awful of his personal traits?
Neither candidate is of any use to the average American. There is no vision that will improve their future chances in life.
I totally disagree. But I’m sure that you have a much better perspective from Cambridgeshire.

Byker28i

58,808 posts

216 months

Wednesday 10th June 2020
quotequote all
trumps busy watching TV, tweeting and retweeting and ignoring his country.

Yesterday he tweeted that the 75 year old man pushed over by police was an antifa provocateur and was attempting to scan police communications in order to black out the equipment. That 75-year old Martin Gugino is a member of two nonprofit organizations: PUSH Buffalo, which focuses on affordable housing, and Western New York Peace Center, a human rights organization. He's also part of the Catholic Worker Movement.
Literally couldn't have picked a more peaceful person to accuse.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-draw...

and whilst trump does notheing other to fan the flames, 14 states and Puerto Rico have recorded their highest-ever 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, & Utah.

Joe Biden on CBS: "The president has no credibility on anything. He lies. He's the first person anyone can think of in modern history who's taken regular military officers and had them move against peaceful demonstrators ... He should just stop."


As I said, trump is thowing away his chances of reelection, and definately is showing to be the crazy one.
Trump’s new network of choice is One America News Network (“OANN”), which is called a “propogandist conspiracy network.”

One of OANN’s main conspiracy theorists is Kristian Rouz, who used to write for Sputnik one of theRussian state media outlet.
Rouz's previous disproven conspiracy theories were that Hillary Clinton funded Antifa, that coronavirus is a conspiracy involving the Clintons, George Soros, Bill Gates, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and the Chinese government.
This is all trumps doing, watching tv and tweeting...

Edited by Byker28i on Wednesday 10th June 07:38

Byker28i

58,808 posts

216 months

Wednesday 10th June 2020
quotequote all

Cool badge


Byker28i

58,808 posts

216 months

Wednesday 10th June 2020
quotequote all
How trump is throwing it away

An article on trumps slippage in the polls is because white voters are leaving him

“Trump’s slippage is driven largely by his eroding support among white voters, particularly those said to be his base,” Sargent explains. “Cohn averaged together recent high-quality polls and found that Biden’s overall lead over Trump has expanded to 10 points, up from six points earlier this spring.”
https://www.alternet.org/2020/06/new-analysis-find...

There's a conservative christian appealing to fellow cristians
“We are in the twilight of Trumpism. He is a spent force. Events of this spring and summer have emasculated him; he wasted his presidency tweeting, making a fool of himself, and demeaning the stature of his office. It’s over.”
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/com...


Pretty quick advert out after trump accused a 75 year old of being an antifa protester
Leaders don’t peddle insane conspiracy theories. @realDonaldTrump is not a leader. #TheyLieYouDie
https://twitter.com/i/status/1270508926438498304

Countdown

39,686 posts

195 months

Wednesday 10th June 2020
quotequote all
I think there's a risk to Biden and the Dems if they keep pointing to the polls at this stage. It's likely to motivate the Trumpers more into making sure they vote. Instead they need to emphasise how close it was last time.

Tallow

1,624 posts

160 months

Wednesday 10th June 2020
quotequote all
unrepentant said:
jsf said:
Countdown said:
Is it Biden's policies you think are awful of his personal traits?
Neither candidate is of any use to the average American. There is no vision that will improve their future chances in life.
I totally disagree. But I’m sure that you have a much better perspective from Cambridgeshire.
+1

Trump's support amongst independents is terrible right now. The big question is will it be in 5 months time? People have surprisingly short memories. There were still 11 Democratic nominees this 5 months ago from today. It feels like a lifetime ago on this crazy news cycle.

I suspect people will be banging on about some other crazy st he's done by election day - the question to me is how much the next scandal will influence the people on the fence. It's a bonkers and exhausting state of affairs.

unrepentant

21,212 posts

255 months

Wednesday 10th June 2020
quotequote all
Countdown said:
I think there's a risk to Biden and the Dems if they keep pointing to the polls at this stage. It's likely to motivate the Trumpers more into making sure they vote. Instead they need to emphasise how close it was last time.
Dems are very wary about the polls and the message being repeated is "vote", no complacency, every vote counts, take nothing for granted.

Not a message that resonates in the tiny mind of the Mango Mussolini. He talks up every poll that is in his favor, however discredited, and dismisses every one that is negative as "fake".

voyds9

8,488 posts

282 months

Wednesday 10th June 2020
quotequote all
It's a long time politically till November.
A few more riots and a few lax governors will Trump call in the National guard to restore order, would it win votes or lose votes?

Are they having TV debates this year? Either could make a mess of those (irreversibly)

For a Trump win, stay off social media, call for action from the governors esp in Democrat areas, blame them for the damage

For a Biden win, hope Trump calls in the National guard and someone in the guard opens fire, blame Trump for being indecisive over the riots, stay away from the debates.