CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 3)
Discussion
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Well seasonality is more an issue of the conditions that the virus spreads easily I suppose rather than the time of the year itself. If a lot of people spend a lot of time indoor it spreads more easily. There's not many temperate US states that are showing big surges in cases I think (haven't looked, feel free to correct if wrong).....Vanden Saab said:
TheDrBrian said:
Project FEAR! alive and well in Australia
This is what happens when you try to suppress the virus, as soon as you open up off it goes again. 12 weeks of lockdown started too early followed by 4 or 5 weeks of getting back to normal followed by another 6 weeks of lockdown and repeat. markyb_lcy said:
"lockdown" did "work" especially for it's initially stated aims of protecting the NHS from being overwhelmed.
The real question I find interesting is considering if a less strict version of lockdown (or basked of NPIs - possibly more advisory and less legislative) would have had a similar (or "good enough" effect).
If course, we can never *really* know, but the results from Sweden suggest it is possible.
We cannot say that lockdown 'worked' without answering your question. The real question I find interesting is considering if a less strict version of lockdown (or basked of NPIs - possibly more advisory and less legislative) would have had a similar (or "good enough" effect).
If course, we can never *really* know, but the results from Sweden suggest it is possible.
I believe that there is clear evidence that transmission was reducing prior to lockdown and that this continued as deaths peaked on the 8th April and declined thereafter. I do not believe that any further impact from the strict legal lockdown introduced on the 23rd March can be proven.
Elysium said:
sambucket said:
Ok here is a loony prediction for you, that you are welcome to quote. Measured from this date forward, over the next 12 months, England will have the longest period of social distancing in Europe, the longest hospital waiting lists, the worst cancer detection rates, the worst PISA scores, the most excess deaths, the largest second wave in winter, the lowest mask use, the worst hit economy, the most travel blacklists, and the steepest rise in anti vax sentiment.
And the second prediction is this thread will blame all this on lockdown.
Do you get some sort of kick out of this?And the second prediction is this thread will blame all this on lockdown.
I can't see any purpose to this post, other than to torment people.
I see today Jeremy Hunt has joined the elimination train. Imagine if he had won.....
https://youtu.be/f9jhFI5Wm7k?t=1133
sambucket said:
Elysium said:
sambucket said:
Ok here is a loony prediction for you, that you are welcome to quote. Measured from this date forward, over the next 12 months, England will have the longest period of social distancing in Europe, the longest hospital waiting lists, the worst cancer detection rates, the worst PISA scores, the most excess deaths, the largest second wave in winter, the lowest mask use, the worst hit economy, the most travel blacklists, and the steepest rise in anti vax sentiment.
And the second prediction is this thread will blame all this on lockdown.
Do you get some sort of kick out of this?And the second prediction is this thread will blame all this on lockdown.
I can't see any purpose to this post, other than to torment people.
I see today Jeremy Hunt has joined the elimination train. Imagine if he had won.....
https://youtu.be/f9jhFI5Wm7k?t=1133
WinstonWolf said:
I suppose those deaths don't matter?
Again, that point is claimed by both ‘sides’. Lockdown lovers argue, tough sharp action reduces direct AND indirect deaths. But anyway I didn’t mean to derail . I just popped in to post the hunt link. Yes I said hunt.
Edited by anonymous-user on Tuesday 7th July 21:08
sambucket said:
Elysium said:
sambucket said:
Ok here is a loony prediction for you, that you are welcome to quote. Measured from this date forward, over the next 12 months, England will have the longest period of social distancing in Europe, the longest hospital waiting lists, the worst cancer detection rates, the worst PISA scores, the most excess deaths, the largest second wave in winter, the lowest mask use, the worst hit economy, the most travel blacklists, and the steepest rise in anti vax sentiment.
And the second prediction is this thread will blame all this on lockdown.
Do you get some sort of kick out of this?And the second prediction is this thread will blame all this on lockdown.
I can't see any purpose to this post, other than to torment people.
I see today Jeremy Hunt has joined the elimination train. Imagine if he had won.....
https://youtu.be/f9jhFI5Wm7k?t=1133
Andy888 said:
Yep, exactly. Like this, not that far away from me.
"Coronavirus: 'Up to 16 affected' in County Down clusters"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-533...
Clearly zero cases is the only acceptable position then.
Heaven forbid "up to 16 people" may have it. Not died, not hospitalised, just have it. Local coffee shops have now closed in sympathy.
2 positive tests in Scotland in the last 24 hours. Still can’t get a haircut, visit a cafe, attend a religious service or stay in a hotel and criminalisation of people who don’t wear a face covering in a shop begins on Friday."Coronavirus: 'Up to 16 affected' in County Down clusters"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-533...
Clearly zero cases is the only acceptable position then.
Heaven forbid "up to 16 people" may have it. Not died, not hospitalised, just have it. Local coffee shops have now closed in sympathy.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covi...
sambucket said:
I see today Jeremy Hunt has joined the elimination train. Imagine if he had won.....
https://youtu.be/f9jhFI5Wm7k?t=1133
Well I voted for Hunt in the Conservative Party leadership election. So I do think generally he is a sound person. But you need to bear in mind the politics of this. Hunt is out of the cabinet currently, and would still desperately like to be PM.https://youtu.be/f9jhFI5Wm7k?t=1133
For various reasons, Boris I think is unlikely to fight the next election - his mission will be to "get Brexit done" (so it doesn't become a noose around the next leader's neck) .
So Hunt isn't currently responsible for the consequences his statements would have if they became policy. And he knows by saying something which is contrary to current government thinking he keeps himself relevant and ensures media coverage.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Well I voted for Hunt in the Conservative Party leadership election. So I do think generally he is a sound person.
Hunt was health secretary over cygnus where.......pretty much nothing was done to address the shortcomings found. For him to pipe up as head of the health select committee and criticise Hancock (as much as I think Hancock is a prat) for the failings of the NHs/health service is bloody rich. isaldiri said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Well I voted for Hunt in the Conservative Party leadership election. So I do think generally he is a sound person.
Hunt was health secretary over cygnus where.......pretty much nothing was done to address the shortcomings found. For him to pipe up as head of the health select committee and criticise Hancock (as much as I think Hancock is a prat) for the failings of the NHs/health service is bloody rich. 
EddieSteadyGo said:
Well I voted for Hunt in the Conservative Party leadership election. So I do think generally he is a sound person. But you need to bear in mind the politics of this. Hunt is out of the cabinet currently, and would still desperately like to be PM.
For various reasons, Boris I think is unlikely to fight the next election - his mission will be to "get Brexit done" (so it doesn't become a noose around the next leader's neck) .
So Hunt isn't currently responsible for the consequences his statements would have if they became policy. And he knows by saying something which is contrary to current government thinking he keeps himself relevant and ensures media coverage.
He refers to 2/3 of cases involving asymptomatic transmission.For various reasons, Boris I think is unlikely to fight the next election - his mission will be to "get Brexit done" (so it doesn't become a noose around the next leader's neck) .
So Hunt isn't currently responsible for the consequences his statements would have if they became policy. And he knows by saying something which is contrary to current government thinking he keeps himself relevant and ensures media coverage.
Made up and utterly false number. These people are not bright enough to have worthwhile opinions.
ORD said:
He refers to 2/3 of cases involving asymptomatic transmission.
Made up and utterly false number. These people are not bright enough to have worthwhile opinions.
Jeremy Hunt has a first class PPE degree from Oxford. Therefore I think it's safe to say actually he is quite bright. I'm definitely not saying I agree with him (on Covid or politics generally) but whatever his reasons for advocating this action it's not that he isn't 'bright.'Made up and utterly false number. These people are not bright enough to have worthwhile opinions.
ORD said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Well I voted for Hunt in the Conservative Party leadership election. So I do think generally he is a sound person. But you need to bear in mind the politics of this. Hunt is out of the cabinet currently, and would still desperately like to be PM.
For various reasons, Boris I think is unlikely to fight the next election - his mission will be to "get Brexit done" (so it doesn't become a noose around the next leader's neck) .
So Hunt isn't currently responsible for the consequences his statements would have if they became policy. And he knows by saying something which is contrary to current government thinking he keeps himself relevant and ensures media coverage.
He refers to 2/3 of cases involving asymptomatic transmission.For various reasons, Boris I think is unlikely to fight the next election - his mission will be to "get Brexit done" (so it doesn't become a noose around the next leader's neck) .
So Hunt isn't currently responsible for the consequences his statements would have if they became policy. And he knows by saying something which is contrary to current government thinking he keeps himself relevant and ensures media coverage.
Made up and utterly false number. These people are not bright enough to have worthwhile opinions.
Also, the "closed system" facilities like ships and prisons were interesting. I would have thought every care home could almost be seen in the same light (although obviously with the provisio of agency staff moving around)......Are there homes with 10/20 resident's testing positive, or is it more likely that 20/20 would have been positive at some point, but antibody tests can only give the 10/20 figure as some didn't produce antibodies? Id be very worried if I was old with underlying health issue in a home that hadn't had an outbreak, perhaps less so if it had already swept through
Vanden Saab said:
TheDrBrian said:
Project FEAR! alive and well in Australia
This is what happens when you try to suppress the virus, as soon as you open up off it goes again. 12 weeks of lockdown started too early followed by 4 or 5 weeks of getting back to normal followed by another 6 weeks of lockdown and repeat. bodhi said:
Hospital admissions have increased slightly from the data I have seen, however most hospitals in the US have recently re-started elective surgeries and are now back operating at something close to normal - for eg in Florida:
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1279641993...
Also worth remembering what summer temperatures are like in the US States in question - Texas, Arizona and Florida. Most locals tend to stay inside in the air conditioning for the worst of it, and we know air con does a great job of circulating this disease around.
It's worth looking at the US as they have States that opened early, States that locked down etc, all sorts of demographic to study.https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1279641993...
Also worth remembering what summer temperatures are like in the US States in question - Texas, Arizona and Florida. Most locals tend to stay inside in the air conditioning for the worst of it, and we know air con does a great job of circulating this disease around.
The US just went through 3m cases, around 25% of the worlds deaths, texas just recorded 10,000 cases in a day, Florida almost 7,400, with cases rising in many states that relaxed rules early.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/artic...
84% of Florida ICU beds are full,
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-icu-nearly-fu...
With the figures rising over the last two weeks, is it too early to be using purely deaths as an indicator as these are likely to rise in the next few weeks?
grumbledoak said:
1974nc said:
News this morning of Hancock deciding whether to make masks mandatory in public settings.
Also wether to make people who cannot wear a mask for health reasons display a badge explaining why.
A nice big yellow badge, presumably.Also wether to make people who cannot wear a mask for health reasons display a badge explaining why.
Lucky he doesn’t own a joke shop or wearing clown shoes would become mandatory
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff