CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 3)

[Byker28i]

1974nc said:

grumbledoak said:

1974nc said:

News this morning of Hancock deciding whether to make masks mandatory in public settings.
Also wether to make people who cannot wear a mask for health reasons display a badge explaining why.

A nice big yellow badge, presumably.

Doesn’t Hancock have business interests in PPE companies?
Lucky he doesn’t own a joke shop or wearing clown shoes would become mandatory

Not true - https://fullfact.org/online/hancock-supply-chains/
Unless you know otherwise?

[MikeT66]

[redacted]

[ORD]

TomTheTyke said:

ORD said:

He refers to 2/3 of cases involving asymptomatic transmission.
Made up and utterly false number. These people are not bright enough to have worthwhile opinions.

Jeremy Hunt has a first class PPE degree from Oxford. Therefore I think it's safe to say actually he is quite bright. I'm definitely not saying I agree with him (on Covid or politics generally) but whatever his reasons for advocating this action it's not that he isn't 'bright.'

Rather than judging on what he says and does now, you’d prefer to check how well he did in a handful of university exams decades ago? Knock yourself out!

His analysis is moronic. That could be for many reasons, in theory. But by far the most the likely is that he’s not very smart.

[lemmingjames]

[redacted]

[anonymous-user]

Byker28i said:

1974nc said:

grumbledoak said:

1974nc said:

News this morning of Hancock deciding whether to make masks mandatory in public settings.
Also wether to make people who cannot wear a mask for health reasons display a badge explaining why.

A nice big yellow badge, presumably.

Doesn’t Hancock have business interests in PPE companies?
Lucky he doesn’t own a joke shop or wearing clown shoes would become mandatory

Not true - https://fullfact.org/online/hancock-supply-chains/
Unless you know otherwise?

You are correct and I retract my statement.

However when i delved into it myself, whilst I found no ownership direct or indirect of PPE companies there were a number of stories of dubious payments from donors that have put him in the spotlight several times over the last 2 years.

[smashing]

Byker28i said:

It's worth looking at the US as they have States that opened early, States that locked down etc, all sorts of demographic to study.

The US just went through 3m cases, around 25% of the worlds deaths, texas just recorded 10,000 cases in a day, Florida almost 7,400, with cases rising in many states that relaxed rules early.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/artic...

84% of Florida ICU beds are full,
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-icu-nearly-fu...

With the figures rising over the last two weeks, is it too early to be using purely deaths as an indicator as these are likely to rise in the next few weeks?

what percentage do they run at pre-covid times?

[Byker28i]

1974nc said:

Byker28i said:

1974nc said:

grumbledoak said:

1974nc said:

News this morning of Hancock deciding whether to make masks mandatory in public settings.
Also wether to make people who cannot wear a mask for health reasons display a badge explaining why.

A nice big yellow badge, presumably.

Doesn’t Hancock have business interests in PPE companies?
Lucky he doesn’t own a joke shop or wearing clown shoes would become mandatory

Not true - https://fullfact.org/online/hancock-supply-chains/
Unless you know otherwise?

You are correct and I retract my statement.

However when i delved into it myself, whilst I found no ownership direct or indirect of PPE companies there were a number of stories of dubious payments from donors that have put him in the spotlight several times over the last 2 years.

There's a lot flying around on social media thats untrue thats taken at face value. Not all of it from 'concerned citizens' or verified sources. There's a lot of deliberate misinformation used to unsettle countries, quite an interesting field

[steveo3002]

grumbledoak said:

A nice big yellow badge, presumably.

could sew a little badge onto thier jackets ...i dunno a star or something

[Byker28i]

smashing said:

Byker28i said:

It's worth looking at the US as they have States that opened early, States that locked down etc, all sorts of demographic to study.

The US just went through 3m cases, around 25% of the worlds deaths, texas just recorded 10,000 cases in a day, Florida almost 7,400, with cases rising in many states that relaxed rules early.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/artic...

84% of Florida ICU beds are full,
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-icu-nearly-fu...

With the figures rising over the last two weeks, is it too early to be using purely deaths as an indicator as these are likely to rise in the next few weeks?

what percentage do they run at pre-covid times?

Fell free to delve
https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-...

Edit: although this modelling site suggests
Florida has about 6,115 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 57% (3,480) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 2,635 ICU beds remaining, we estimate 1,021 are needed by COVID cases, or 39% of available beds. This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections
https://covidactnow.org/us/fl/?s=61890

Edited by Byker28i on Wednesday 8th July 08:25

[ORD]

Byker28i said:

There's a lot flying around on social media thats untrue thats taken at face value. Not all of it from 'concerned citizens' or verified sources. There's a lot of deliberate misinformation used to unsettle countries, quite an interesting field

There’s a lot of misinformation from official sources, too. The Government has misled the public repeatedly over Covid, as has the BBC. I’ve also reached the sad position of not trusting the WHO.

This whole st show has me thinking, for the first time ever, ‘Am I crazy or is everyone else?’.

[JagLover]

ORD said:

TomTheTyke said:

ORD said:

He refers to 2/3 of cases involving asymptomatic transmission.
Made up and utterly false number. These people are not bright enough to have worthwhile opinions.

Jeremy Hunt has a first class PPE degree from Oxford. Therefore I think it's safe to say actually he is quite bright. I'm definitely not saying I agree with him (on Covid or politics generally) but whatever his reasons for advocating this action it's not that he isn't 'bright.'

Rather than judging on what he says and does now, you’d prefer to check how well he did in a handful of university exams decades ago? Knock yourself out!

His analysis is moronic. That could be for many reasons, in theory. But by far the most the likely is that he’s not very smart.

Well the most likely explanation is he is a politician trying to get favourable media coverage. That many politicians are duplicitous is hopefully not a surprise to many.

The easiest political stance to take is that the government were too lax in their lock down. Just look at some of the press coverage that Sweden has attracted for example.

[Byker28i]

ORD said:

Byker28i said:

There's a lot flying around on social media thats untrue thats taken at face value. Not all of it from 'concerned citizens' or verified sources. There's a lot of deliberate misinformation used to unsettle countries, quite an interesting field

There’s a lot of misinformation from official sources, too. The Government has misled the public repeatedly over Covid, as has the BBC. I’ve also reached the sad position of not trusting the WHO.

This whole st show has me thinking, for the first time ever, ‘Am I crazy or is everyone else?’.

The daily briefings and taking questions I think were handled quite well, certainly not the cover up you're trying to suggest?
There's no doubting that we didn't handle it promptly, ignored previous lessons from other countries, tried to run this as a flu epidemic.

I suspect 'lessons have been learnt' and things will be different next time

[Pachydermus]

Byker28i said:

smashing said:

Byker28i said:

It's worth looking at the US as they have States that opened early, States that locked down etc, all sorts of demographic to study.

The US just went through 3m cases, around 25% of the worlds deaths, texas just recorded 10,000 cases in a day, Florida almost 7,400, with cases rising in many states that relaxed rules early.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/artic...

84% of Florida ICU beds are full,
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-icu-nearly-fu...

With the figures rising over the last two weeks, is it too early to be using purely deaths as an indicator as these are likely to rise in the next few weeks?

what percentage do they run at pre-covid times?

Fell free to delve
https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-...

Edit: although this modelling site suggests
Florida has about 6,115 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 57% (3,480) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 2,635 ICU beds remaining, we estimate 1,021 are needed by COVID cases, or 39% of available beds. This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections
https://covidactnow.org/us/fl/?s=61890

Edited by Byker28i on Wednesday 8th July 08:25

TheDrBrian said:

Interesting take on the 95% of ICU beds being in use in Texas

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/12790883900...

[JagLover]

smashing said:

Byker28i said:

It's worth looking at the US as they have States that opened early, States that locked down etc, all sorts of demographic to study.

The US just went through 3m cases, around 25% of the worlds deaths, texas just recorded 10,000 cases in a day, Florida almost 7,400, with cases rising in many states that relaxed rules early.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/artic...

84% of Florida ICU beds are full,
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-icu-nearly-fu...

With the figures rising over the last two weeks, is it too early to be using purely deaths as an indicator as these are likely to rise in the next few weeks?

what percentage do they run at pre-covid times?

Looking online many are setup to run at 90%+ capacity and can be expanded when needed.

[smashing]

Byker28i said:

Fell free to delve
https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-...

Edit: although this modelling site suggests
Florida has about 6,115 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 57% (3,480) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 2,635 ICU beds remaining, we estimate 1,021 are needed by COVID cases, or 39% of available beds. This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections
https://covidactnow.org/us/fl/?s=61890

Edited by Byker28i on Wednesday 8th July 08:25

Thanks I'll take a look

[Elysium]

grumbledoak said:

1974nc said:

News this morning of Hancock deciding whether to make masks mandatory in public settings.
Also wether to make people who cannot wear a mask for health reasons display a badge explaining why.

A nice big yellow badge, presumably.

If it happens it will be more limited than that:

1. Masks are dangerous when exercising
2. The current regulations allow exemption by way of a 'reasonable excuse':

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/regula...

The guidance gives some examples, which would would meet that requirement:

Govt Guidance said:

You also do not need to wear a face covering if you have a good reason not to. This includes:

if you have a physical or mental illness or impairment, or a disability that means you cannot put on, wear or remove a face covering
if putting on, wearing or removing a face covering would cause you severe distress
if you are travelling with, or providing assistance to, someone who relies on lip reading to communicate
if you are travelling to avoid injury or escape the risk of harm, and you do not have a face covering with you
if you need to remove it during your journey to avoid harm or injury or the risk of harm or injury to yourself or others
if you need to eat, drink, or take medication you can remove your face covering
if you are asked to remove your face covering by a police officer or other official, for example to check your railcard

I think it is a massive step to get to mandatory face coverings without specific medical exemption and that it will be discriminatory to require someone to wear a sign indicating disability.

[ruggedscotty]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden...

Happy reading.....

and can we stop holding up sweden as the exempler case ? it is a bit twee.....

[JagLover]

ruggedscotty said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden...

Happy reading.....

and can we stop holding up sweden as the exempler case ? it is a bit twee.....

Yes we can expect long diatribes against Sweden in the MSM.

Sweden is an export orientated economy and you would expect some further economic damage from social distancing. So yes they will experience a recession.

The question becomes what happens now?. If Sweden has got through this in its main urban areas then they can proceed as normal now with occasional local flareups.

Meanwhile its neighbours have barely had it.

[Elysium]

ORD said:

There’s a lot of misinformation from official sources, too. The Government has misled the public repeatedly over Covid, as has the BBC. I’ve also reached the sad position of not trusting the WHO.

This whole st show has me thinking, for the first time ever, ‘Am I crazy or is everyone else?’.

The events of the last few months are like a global version of the Milgram experiment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milgram_experiment

The vast majority of people will show unquestioning obedience to authority figures, even when it is obvious that will cause significant harm to others.

65% of Milgrams subjects were willing to deliver a potentially lethal electric shock to an unknown person as part of an 'experiment'. They were wiling do this when there was no moral imperitive or particular importance to their decisions. They just wanted to comply.

With SARS-CoV-2 we have layered on social responsibility, fear of death and a messed up version of morality. In that situation it seems that very few people are willing to defy authority figures, no matter how stupid the 'advice'. In the early days of lockdown this group was vanishingly small. I could find almost no sign online that anyone was worried about collateral damage and the impact on human rights. I found it deeply shocking.

As the evidence comes out, we are seeing lockdown advocates make desperate efforts to justify their original decisions. That is why the narrative moved away from 'flattening the curve' to the need to reduce deaths. As deaths have reduced they have started to talk about cases being the problem, despite the reality that the disease is very mild for most people. As that becomes unarguable, they are shifting the narrative to the imagined long term harm caused to COVID-19 survivors, wildly extrapolating from edge cases.

It should be obvious to any intelligent adult that sacrificing our rights of free movement, closing the NHS to non-COVID patients and shutting down great swathes of the economy will have incrediblly damaging consequences, which are very likely to outstrip any benefits. People ignored that because experts told them to. They are ignoring that now because we are wired to make decisions emotionally and then justfiy them rationally after the event.

Lord Sumption made his living on the back of his clear critical thinking. That's why he immediately saw the problem.

The lockdown zealots are like those poor people in Milgrams experiment. If the experts tell them to sacrifice sick kids and cancer patients, to separate elderly people at the end of their lives from their families, to drive mentally ill people to suicide, to create a dystopian future based on separation and despair, then they will do so. Unthinkingly. And they will argue black is white to justify it.

[anonymous-user]

Re Sweden article in NYT, Doesn't this highlight that there is a limited economic upside for countries like Sweden pursuing different strategies in a global pandemic. Any upside is limited by the actions of their trading partners?

If you watched the Indy sage Hunt vid, the speaker after Hunt was quite interesting. He is on real SAGE and caveated some of the enthusiasm on the panel for elimination. One being to work well it really needs a consistent continent wide approach.
And if Sweden is stuck between countries pursuing low covid strategies, then what then?

Another caveat he made is, quite ominously, the problem with low covid strategy in summer, is that it makes lock down over winter, if required, more difficult to achieve, from a stamina point of view. If we are resigned to a long fight, then it might make sense to parry in the early rounds, tread water in the summer and go hard in the winter, if the fight lasts that long.

One of the frustrating things about UK approach is the lack of clarity over the strategy. If UK is really going for low/zero covid approach, then they should just come out and declare this, as it doesn't help keeping people in the dark. Or maybe it does help, who knows.