CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 3)
Discussion
Elysium said:
This is a great article comparing Sweden to New York:
https://fee.org/articles/why-sweden-succeeded-in-f...
Yes a good article https://fee.org/articles/why-sweden-succeeded-in-f...
RSTurboPaul said:
ruggedscotty said:
monkfish1 said:
ruggedscotty said:
Id rather wear a mask than a ventilator....
What a dumb statementBy your logic, and assuming you are under 65 without and serious health conditions, i assume you are no longer driving? After all, statistically your are more likely to die in an RTA than from Covid.
i look forward to your confirmation of this.
Key facts:
In 2018, there were 1,784 people killed on the roads in Britain;
In 2018, 25,511 people were seriously injured on the roads in Britain;
In 2018, there was a total of 160,597 casualties of all severities in road traffic crashes;
In 2018, the highest number of fatalities were car users, both drivers and passengers, who accounted for 44% of road deaths;
In 2018, of the 1,784 road deaths, the majority (58%) occurred on rural roads.
so far covid-19 deaths have passed 45,000.
I didnt get the 2019 and 2020 figues so allowing for adjustments and such it is still a considerable increase....
Depending on the age of Scotty his chances of dying in a road accident in a year might well match his chances of dying from Covid-19. If he is 70+ then fair enough Covid-19 is more dangerous. If he is in twenties though.....
johnboy1975 said:
sambucket said:
johnboy1975 said:
Have you got a link to one that leans "your" way? Appreciate that's a big ask, as there quite simply isn't one.....on any scale, by any measure, our response has been disproportionate. Maybe it had to be......maybe it didn't (as per the title if this thread).
But if we are valuing human years at 20k a year or whatever the figure is, there is no argument. The cure is worse than the disease.
not aware of academic studies honestly, but there have been a few reports by the likes of goldman sachs. I'll try and dig them out. But if we are valuing human years at 20k a year or whatever the figure is, there is no argument. The cure is worse than the disease.
If you are letting me pick very biased numbers, then you can do 11 years * 35k * 250k deaths avoided = 100bn. But then you are assuming the cost would be zero if we 'let rip' The healthcare and economic costs of 'living with the virus' would be sizable, too.
Also imo (and chris whitty's) you should include indirect deaths when considering the impact on a country, as these are a direct result of a country's healthcare system not being robust enough to deal with the threat, actual or perceived, without imploding. We've seen in past pandemics, that countries that don't lockdown at all, eg africa, still see massive spikes in things like maleria from reduced healthcare availability in addition to that caused by compromised immune systems etc.
Edited by sambucket on Thursday 16th July 01:20
The cost of "letting rip" would be near zero financially- the cost would be the 250k lives (I'm not advocating this, it was never really an option. Nightclubs, travel, football, theatre, events were always going to be casualties) << So I've just argued against myself, there's a big cost right there
And if you are factoring in the indirect deaths, which side are you putting them on? On the lockdown side, presumably. Although (being fairminded) if I was suffering from cancer and the govt "let it rip" I'd probably die of covid due to my cancer treatment not bring cancelled, and catching covid at the hospital, and dying due to no immune system)
No easy arguments either way
I don't envy the government on this. Much easier to stand aside, and pick the bones when it's done
Multiple the more up to date estimates of IFR by the modified total percentage of the population needed to get to HI and you don't even get to a death toll of 250,000 in total. Let alone have that figure saved by lockdown measures of dubious usefullness
(65,000,000 * 43% at IFR of 0.6% which is very probably an overestimate)=167,700
You need to divide the £300bn cost of lockdown by ten or twenty thousand lives saved at most in my view.
Byker28i said:
Spotted this today
Effect of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: Preliminary results from a multi-centre, randomized, controlled trial.
Conclusions: In patients hospitalized with COVID-19, hydroxychloroquine was not associated with reductions in 28-day mortality but was associated with an increased length of hospital stay and increased risk of progressing to invasive mechanical ventilation or death.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15...
No Zinc.Effect of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: Preliminary results from a multi-centre, randomized, controlled trial.
Conclusions: In patients hospitalized with COVID-19, hydroxychloroquine was not associated with reductions in 28-day mortality but was associated with an increased length of hospital stay and increased risk of progressing to invasive mechanical ventilation or death.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15...
Didier Raoult was quite specific. I've seen two other qualified, trustworthy doctors claiming good results doing basically the same thing. And the RCTs are trying everything except the actual protocol.
If I was the cynical type I would consider whether they are setting these up to fail because of the potential for another $3,120 per shot drug like Remdesivir.
ruggedscotty said:
monkfish1 said:
ruggedscotty said:
Id rather wear a mask than a ventilator....
What a dumb statementBy your logic, and assuming you are under 65 without and serious health conditions, i assume you are no longer driving? After all, statistically your are more likely to die in an RTA than from Covid.
i look forward to your confirmation of this.
Key facts:
In 2018, there were 1,784 people killed on the roads in Britain;
In 2018, 25,511 people were seriously injured on the roads in Britain;
In 2018, there was a total of 160,597 casualties of all severities in road traffic crashes;
In 2018, the highest number of fatalities were car users, both drivers and passengers, who accounted for 44% of road deaths;
In 2018, of the 1,784 road deaths, the majority (58%) occurred on rural roads.
so far covid-19 deaths have passed 45,000.
I didnt get the 2019 and 2020 figues so allowing for adjustments and such it is still a considerable increase....
As was pointed out in a bit more detail earlier, if you are under 65 without underlying health issues, you ARE more likely to die in an RTA. Thats just fact. You can ignore the facts, but it wont change them.
You are the perfect example of how we have lost all sense of proportionality with the virus. We are going to huge lengths to protect ourselves from it, but quite happy to continue doing all manner of things that are much more likely to kill you.
Based on our current behaviours, there is a very long list of things we should ban right away, including driving, stairs etc.
JagLover said:
RSTurboPaul said:
ruggedscotty said:
monkfish1 said:
ruggedscotty said:
Id rather wear a mask than a ventilator....
What a dumb statementBy your logic, and assuming you are under 65 without and serious health conditions, i assume you are no longer driving? After all, statistically your are more likely to die in an RTA than from Covid.
i look forward to your confirmation of this.
Key facts:
In 2018, there were 1,784 people killed on the roads in Britain;
In 2018, 25,511 people were seriously injured on the roads in Britain;
In 2018, there was a total of 160,597 casualties of all severities in road traffic crashes;
In 2018, the highest number of fatalities were car users, both drivers and passengers, who accounted for 44% of road deaths;
In 2018, of the 1,784 road deaths, the majority (58%) occurred on rural roads.
so far covid-19 deaths have passed 45,000.
I didnt get the 2019 and 2020 figues so allowing for adjustments and such it is still a considerable increase....
Depending on the age of Scotty his chances of dying in a road accident in a year might well match his chances of dying from Covid-19. If he is 70+ then fair enough Covid-19 is more dangerous. If he is in twenties though.....
isaldiri said:
Elysium said:
The virus has not really started in South Korea. The country is subtropical, like Florida and will only now be starting to feel the pressure.
You are talking b
ks there I'm afraid. South Korea isn't subtropical like Florida, it's freaking cold there in winter!I think something else is going on that has helped control spread in Asian countries. This could be a combination of a slight climatic benefit, some increased prior immunity and a greater awareness of respiratory viruses allowing them to react more quickly and a reduced demographic risk profile.
South Korea and Japan have major cities and I don’t think enough questions are being asked about their apparent ability to contain the virus.
Neither have had true lockdowns, which sort of makes my point.
It is likely that measures short of full shutdown will work in the UK because they are working elsewhere.
Monomania is the answer to all these strange phenomena.
Many people, perhaps the majority, tend to focus on one issue to the exclusion of all others if it’s new and is presented as a threat. It’s an almost hysterical response.
We have otherwise sensible people behaving in an utterly irrational way.
Many people, perhaps the majority, tend to focus on one issue to the exclusion of all others if it’s new and is presented as a threat. It’s an almost hysterical response.
We have otherwise sensible people behaving in an utterly irrational way.
johnboy1975 said:
sambucket said:
johnboy1975 said:
Have you got a link to one that leans "your" way? Appreciate that's a big ask, as there quite simply isn't one.....on any scale, by any measure, our response has been disproportionate. Maybe it had to be......maybe it didn't (as per the title if this thread).
But if we are valuing human years at 20k a year or whatever the figure is, there is no argument. The cure is worse than the disease.
not aware of academic studies honestly, but there have been a few reports by the likes of goldman sachs. I'll try and dig them out. But if we are valuing human years at 20k a year or whatever the figure is, there is no argument. The cure is worse than the disease.
If you are letting me pick very biased numbers, then you can do 11 years * 35k * 250k deaths avoided = 100bn. But then you are assuming the cost would be zero if we 'let rip' The healthcare and economic costs of 'living with the virus' would be sizable, too.
Also imo (and chris whitty's) you should include indirect deaths when considering the impact on a country, as these are a direct result of a country's healthcare system not being robust enough to deal with the threat, actual or perceived, without imploding. We've seen in past pandemics, that countries that don't lockdown at all, eg africa, still see massive spikes in things like maleria from reduced healthcare availability in addition to that caused by compromised immune systems etc.
Edited by sambucket on Thursday 16th July 01:20
The cost of "letting rip" would be near zero financially- the cost would be the 250k lives (I'm not advocating this, it was never really an option. Nightclubs, travel, football, theatre, events were always going to be casualties) << So I've just argued against myself, there's a big cost right there
And if you are factoring in the indirect deaths, which side are you putting them on? On the lockdown side, presumably. Although (being fairminded) if I was suffering from cancer and the govt "let it rip" I'd probably die of covid due to my cancer treatment not bring cancelled, and catching covid at the hospital, and dying due to no immune system)
No easy arguments either way
I don't envy the government on this. Much easier to stand aside, and pick the bones when it's done
It’s only basis is the Imperial modelling and the idea that, without lockdown, the virus will rampage through 81% of the population.
We know this is nonsense. Sweden have controlled it with no lockdown around 500 deaths per million. With lockdown we have achieved it with about 650 deaths per million.
If 250K lives were saved our ‘no lockdown‘ death toll would be 3,900 lives per million. It’s not plausible at this point.
ORD said:
Monomania is the answer to all these strange phenomena.
Many people, perhaps the majority, tend to focus on one issue to the exclusion of all others if it’s new and is presented as a threat. It’s an almost hysterical response.
We have otherwise sensible people behaving in an utterly irrational way.
Monomania? Is that actually a thing?Many people, perhaps the majority, tend to focus on one issue to the exclusion of all others if it’s new and is presented as a threat. It’s an almost hysterical response.
We have otherwise sensible people behaving in an utterly irrational way.
Clearly much more widespread than the virus. Why dont we take action to deal with that?
Oh, hang on, you cant fix stupid......................
garyhun said:
johnboy1975 said:
sambucket said:
Shops are a risk because of frequent, short contact with new people. The 15 minutes thing is outdated.
Source? Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 15th July 23:06
a person who has had face-to-face contact (within one metre), with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19, including:
being coughed on
having a face-to-face conversation within one metre
having skin-to-skin physical contact, or
contact within one metre for one minute or longer without face-to-face contact
a person who has been within 2 metres of someone who has tested positive for COVID-19 for more than 15 minutes
a person who has travelled in a small vehicle with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19 or in a large vehicle or plane near someone who has tested positive for COVID-19
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidanc...
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 16th July 08:23
monkfish1 said:
Monomania? Is that actually a thing?
Clearly much more widespread than the virus. Why dont we take action to deal with that?
Oh, hang on, you cant fix stupid......................
I’m not sure it’s even very closely correlated with intelligence. There’s bound to be some relationship, but I think it’s weak.Clearly much more widespread than the virus. Why dont we take action to deal with that?
Oh, hang on, you cant fix stupid......................
The ability to stand back and take a sober view can probably be taught, I suppose. But no hope for that with the BBC propaganda machine being cranked up to maximum hysteria.
ORD said:
monkfish1 said:
Monomania? Is that actually a thing?
Clearly much more widespread than the virus. Why dont we take action to deal with that?
Oh, hang on, you cant fix stupid......................
I’m not sure it’s even very closely correlated with intelligence. There’s bound to be some relationship, but I think it’s weak.Clearly much more widespread than the virus. Why dont we take action to deal with that?
Oh, hang on, you cant fix stupid......................
The ability to stand back and take a sober view can probably be taught, I suppose. But no hope for that with the BBC propaganda machine being cranked up to maximum hysteria.
Is there something wrong with the Governer of the Bank of England:-
"the Governor of the Bank of England said people's "fear" of commuting was "holding back the recovery".
Yes, that's it. It's fear pure and simple. Were it not for that, people would be desperate to get up at far too early o'clock for another soul crushing journey on public transport. Not for them is the more productive way of working which they have grown accustomed to, nor the improved the work life balance.... And then there is the joy of wearing a mask for the entire journey in a sweaty, non air-conditioned ancient train.
"He said he had been driving in to his office at the Bank every day for 17 weeks and had been shocked how empty London felt, with commuters and tourists staying away, adding that he is one of only around 80-100 staff working from the Bank each day out of thousands who work there".
Err, why is he surprised when the institution he heads is doing the very thing which is concerning him....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/15/boris-...
Meanwhile the combination of an unmade bed and a brain injury that is our PM (copyright Frankie Boyle) is now going to tell an incredulous nation that everyone needs to get back to work when he addresses the nation tomorrow. It's safe - honest- he will doubtless say. But sadly for him most of us are quite happy with our new way of life.
Nemesis approaches...
"the Governor of the Bank of England said people's "fear" of commuting was "holding back the recovery".
Yes, that's it. It's fear pure and simple. Were it not for that, people would be desperate to get up at far too early o'clock for another soul crushing journey on public transport. Not for them is the more productive way of working which they have grown accustomed to, nor the improved the work life balance.... And then there is the joy of wearing a mask for the entire journey in a sweaty, non air-conditioned ancient train.
"He said he had been driving in to his office at the Bank every day for 17 weeks and had been shocked how empty London felt, with commuters and tourists staying away, adding that he is one of only around 80-100 staff working from the Bank each day out of thousands who work there".
Err, why is he surprised when the institution he heads is doing the very thing which is concerning him....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/15/boris-...
Meanwhile the combination of an unmade bed and a brain injury that is our PM (copyright Frankie Boyle) is now going to tell an incredulous nation that everyone needs to get back to work when he addresses the nation tomorrow. It's safe - honest- he will doubtless say. But sadly for him most of us are quite happy with our new way of life.
Nemesis approaches...
According to the interweb:
Definition of monomania
1: mental illness especially when limited in expression to one idea or area of thought
2: excessive concentration on a single object or idea
So most of the population is, potentially mentally ill? Makes sense given the behaviours i guess.
Definition of monomania
1: mental illness especially when limited in expression to one idea or area of thought
2: excessive concentration on a single object or idea
So most of the population is, potentially mentally ill? Makes sense given the behaviours i guess.
ant1973 said:
Is there something wrong with the Governer of the Bank of England:-
"the Governor of the Bank of England said people's "fear" of commuting was "holding back the recovery".
Yes, that's it. It's fear pure and simple. Were it not for that, people would be desperate to get up at far too early o'clock for another soul crushing journey on public transport. Not for them is the more productive way of working which they have grown accustomed to, nor the improved the work life balance.... And then there is the joy of wearing a mask for the entire journey in a sweaty, non air-conditioned ancient train.
"He said he had been driving in to his office at the Bank every day for 17 weeks and had been shocked how empty London felt, with commuters and tourists staying away, adding that he is one of only around 80-100 staff working from the Bank each day out of thousands who work there".
Err, why is he surprised when the institution he heads is doing the very thing which is concerning him....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/15/boris-...
Meanwhile the combination of an unmade bed and a brain injury that is our PM (copyright Frankie Boyle) is now going to tell an incredulous nation that everyone needs to get back to work when he addresses the nation tomorrow. It's safe - honest- he will doubtless say. But sadly for him most of us are quite happy with our new way of life.
Nemesis approaches...
Amazing how far detached from reality one can be."the Governor of the Bank of England said people's "fear" of commuting was "holding back the recovery".
Yes, that's it. It's fear pure and simple. Were it not for that, people would be desperate to get up at far too early o'clock for another soul crushing journey on public transport. Not for them is the more productive way of working which they have grown accustomed to, nor the improved the work life balance.... And then there is the joy of wearing a mask for the entire journey in a sweaty, non air-conditioned ancient train.
"He said he had been driving in to his office at the Bank every day for 17 weeks and had been shocked how empty London felt, with commuters and tourists staying away, adding that he is one of only around 80-100 staff working from the Bank each day out of thousands who work there".
Err, why is he surprised when the institution he heads is doing the very thing which is concerning him....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/15/boris-...
Meanwhile the combination of an unmade bed and a brain injury that is our PM (copyright Frankie Boyle) is now going to tell an incredulous nation that everyone needs to get back to work when he addresses the nation tomorrow. It's safe - honest- he will doubtless say. But sadly for him most of us are quite happy with our new way of life.
Nemesis approaches...
ORD said:
monkfish1 said:
Monomania? Is that actually a thing?
Clearly much more widespread than the virus. Why dont we take action to deal with that?
Oh, hang on, you cant fix stupid......................
I’m not sure it’s even very closely correlated with intelligence. There’s bound to be some relationship, but I think it’s weak.Clearly much more widespread than the virus. Why dont we take action to deal with that?
Oh, hang on, you cant fix stupid......................
The ability to stand back and take a sober view can probably be taught, I suppose. But no hope for that with the BBC propaganda machine being cranked up to maximum hysteria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asch_conformity_expe...
We have a natural predisposition toward it.
This situation is uniquely stressful and the risks are difficult to understand. That means we turn to others to work out what is correct. Our desire to conform is amplified.
That has been driven by the media frenzy and used remorselessly by this Government, who particularly embrace behavioral science because it helped them win the referendum and the election.
You could see this in play very early on, when hardly anyone questioned the lockdown. Indeed now, very few scientists are willing to talk openly about the risks and potential consequences of lockdown, despite the reality that it is a completely unproven idea. This extended to social media companies who decided to censor and delete information that did not strictly align with the WHO position. An unbelieveable decision in hindsight.
I have seen that slowly change over time with more and more educated and reasonable voices asking if it was worth it.
It was very noticeable that the first people to voice disagreement tended to be those with a high degree of intellectual freedom. Retired medics and scientists who risked social sanctions, but not the loss of their jobs.
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