Tesla most valuable automaker in the world

Tesla most valuable automaker in the world

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TwigtheWonderkid

43,346 posts

150 months

Thursday 2nd July 2020
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Canute said:
I think the UK perspective is a little behind other countries, here in Scandinavia Tesla is everywhere and must be doing really well. We have EV charging stations even in my small village of less than 2000 people, solar and wind is also huge here.
Anyone can be a busy fool. Selling loads of your product is easy. Selling loads of your product at a price point that covers r & d, costs of manufacture, wages, premises etc, is rather more difficult.

Teslas are expensive as it is. If they were priced so the firm were actually making money selling them, I suspect they wouldn't be as popular as they are in Scandinavia.

gregs656

10,876 posts

181 months

Thursday 2nd July 2020
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RobDickinson said:
Its attached to them becoming a ~$1tn sp500 company which is incredibly likely.
How much do you have invested? What did you pay?

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

254 months

Thursday 2nd July 2020
quotequote all
gregs656 said:
How much do you have invested? What did you pay?
what friken right do you think you ave of asking that kind of question? is it relevant to the discussion? no.

gregs656

10,876 posts

181 months

Thursday 2nd July 2020
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RobDickinson said:
what friken right do you think you ave of asking that kind of question? is it relevant to the discussion? no.
It’s a question on a discussion forum?

If I was heavily invested, particularly if I bought closer to the 900s than the 300s, and a fan boy I would be looking for rationality too.

If I bought low, same thing.

If you are not invested, I’d ask why you’re not buying now if it’s only going to go up.

anonymous-user

54 months

Thursday 2nd July 2020
quotequote all
TwigtheWonderkid said:
Anyone can be a busy fool. Selling loads of your product is easy. Selling loads of your product at a price point that covers r & d, costs of manufacture, wages, premises etc, is rather more difficult.

Teslas are expensive as it is. If they were priced so the firm were actually making money selling them, I suspect they wouldn't be as popular as they are in Scandinavia.
Tesla has been about cash flow neutral for a while now, I thought? Add in the FSD revenue at 7k a car with 30% take rate, and you have pretty decent margins cooking.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

254 months

Thursday 2nd July 2020
quotequote all
gregs656 said:
It’s a question on a discussion forum?

If I was heavily invested, particularly if I bought closer to the 900s than the 300s, and a fan boy I would be looking for rationality too.

If I bought low, same thing.

If you are not invested, I’d ask why you’re not buying now if it’s only going to go up.
lol mkay so you already have st worked out whatever I say. none of which is relevant.

RDMcG

Original Poster:

19,142 posts

207 months

Thursday 2nd July 2020
quotequote all
This is really not about whether you like Teslas or not.

Take the early days of Amazon. No profits. Lots of people hated it.
Microsoft...software was buggy and did not scale.

It is not that important in the early days if a company makes a profit as much as whether it has a credible growth plan. The institutional investors make up the bulk of the float, not retail people. They are certainly not sitting around comparing acceleration times. The fact is that Tesla has a compelling growth story that the market likes. Could they be wrong? Absolutely.

Yet, they are causing the entire auto industry to retool at great cost and to rethink their distribution strategy. Tesla less direct in North America, no dealers. Another major difference in their cost structure.

No I am not a fan of the car more because I like cars with razor-sharp handling, but that is not a particularly important view in terms fo volume sales. I do not actively invest myself and prefer to spend my time working in new things, but of course it is one of those companies where hindsight is 20 20. Apple, Google, Netflix, Microsoft and so on...the list is endless. I think Tesla will do well though.

Canute

566 posts

68 months

Thursday 2nd July 2020
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p1stonhead said:
Canute said:
I think the UK perspective is a little behind other countries, here in Scandinavia Tesla is everywhere and must be doing really well. We have EV charging stations even in my small village of less than 2000 people, solar and wind is also huge here.
They have a head start but that doesn’t justify their valuation.

Tesla was $400 3 months ago. Nothing has happened to justify a tripling of the share price since then.

A few weeks before it was $400? Oh yes it was $1000......

People pumping the share price up and down are simply trying to get rich.

This company is apparently worth more than Disney or Coke. But you don’t have to worry about their share prices halving in a matter of weeks.

But you also can’t get rich quick on Coke or Disney.

Don’t get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with a punt - TSLA actually made me several thousand quid over the past year or so. But let’s not pretend it’s anything to do with the actual value of the company at the moment.

Edited by p1stonhead on Thursday 2nd July 21:57
Did I talk about stock markets?

Canute

566 posts

68 months

Thursday 2nd July 2020
quotequote all
TwigtheWonderkid said:
Anyone can be a busy fool. Selling loads of your product is easy. Selling loads of your product at a price point that covers r & d, costs of manufacture, wages, premises etc, is rather more difficult.

Teslas are expensive as it is. If they were priced so the firm were actually making money selling them, I suspect they wouldn't be as popular as they are in Scandinavia.
I think the Scandinavians are much more open-minded which is what has allowed this growth here. Also, the infrastructure is totally geared up to EV's and has been for at least the past 5 years.




rodericb

6,736 posts

126 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
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RobDickinson said:
They increased their global market share last year. Taycan costs 3 times what a model 3 does and is less efficient and charges slower. has zero chance of ever driving itself etc.
The Taycan and the model 3 aren't really in the same space are they Rob? The Porsche is a larger car, has near twice the power, is a Porsche (for all the good and bad that entails). The Taycan charging is 270kW and that's marginally higher than what a Long Range model 3 can take (250kW).

As for the value of the Tesla company, it is what it is. It's a US tech company. If Elon Musk pumps out an oddly worded tweet the valuations cop a hammering. He says he's going to make a van and it'll be ready in five years and the share price goes up today on word of that. He got onto the EV thing early, carved out a market and sets the pace. I don't think he's gonna go broke any time soon and the USA can obviously have one more major car manufacturer than it did ten years ago.

So there's no need to embellish the truth with regards to Tesla or their products or take liberties with the truth on competitors like you're fighting for the survival of Tesla against all odds. There's not a lot of commonality with some of the fundamentals of Tesla and other car manufacturers so it's a bit of a futile exercise trying to compare them unless you're trying to score internet points. You don't need to do that.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

254 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
quotequote all
rodericb said:
The Taycan and the model 3 aren't really in the same space are they Rob? The Porsche is a larger car, has near twice the power, is a Porsche (for all the good and bad that entails). The Taycan charging is 270kW and that's marginally higher than what a Long Range model 3 can take (250kW).
Its a larger car on the outside, smaller car on the inside. only 4 seater, smaller boot etc. it can charge at a higher KW but through poorer efficiency gains range slower.

Murph7355

37,708 posts

256 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
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RobDickinson said:
rodericb said:
The Taycan and the model 3 aren't really in the same space are they Rob? The Porsche is a larger car, has near twice the power, is a Porsche (for all the good and bad that entails). The Taycan charging is 270kW and that's marginally higher than what a Long Range model 3 can take (250kW).
Its a larger car on the outside, smaller car on the inside. only 4 seater, smaller boot etc. it can charge at a higher KW but through poorer efficiency gains range slower.
It's not targeted at anywhere near the same market. So comparison are irrelevant. I agree with some of the points you make, but this sort of comparison undermines other elements.

Tesla's valuation makes no sense to me (in the same way as few if any of the .com era valuations didn't), but my record on stocks and shares is woeful so what do I know smile

I actually quite like their cars. I'd like a go in an X at some point - might provide an interesting diversion from our much loved Volvo. But as we are unlikely to need to change that for some years, it won't happen that quickly and I strongly suspect at that point that every other manufacturer will have caught up and hopefully we'll have a more unified charge network. I also like the look of the Roadster.

They've certainly put a cattle prod up the EV market. (Whether that will save the planet I am doubtful...but that ship has sailed where cars are concerned for now).

NRS

22,143 posts

201 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
quotequote all
sambucket said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
Anyone can be a busy fool. Selling loads of your product is easy. Selling loads of your product at a price point that covers r & d, costs of manufacture, wages, premises etc, is rather more difficult.

Teslas are expensive as it is. If they were priced so the firm were actually making money selling them, I suspect they wouldn't be as popular as they are in Scandinavia.
Tesla has been about cash flow neutral for a while now, I thought? Add in the FSD revenue at 7k a car with 30% take rate, and you have pretty decent margins cooking.
The reason Tesla is (likely) losing money is developing the fleet. They don't need the money to just cover the cost of the cars, but to scale up new factories for production, and to design the new models coming out (going from Roadster to Model S to Model 3 and Model X, then to cybertruck and perhaps more. Your never going to make much profit while doing that, but once you have the factories build for large scale production, a wide range of models etc then the expenses will come down as you can fund development, not massive expansion into new areas.

Amazon of course is the easy example to give about lack of profits due to expansion. Of course if the cash dries up Tesla are in big trouble, but it's less likely the cash will disappear due to the fans, and even if they did go bust now there is enough there that someone will pick up the pieces and continue afterwards.

TwigtheWonderkid

43,346 posts

150 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
quotequote all
Canute said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
Anyone can be a busy fool. Selling loads of your product is easy. Selling loads of your product at a price point that covers r & d, costs of manufacture, wages, premises etc, is rather more difficult.

Teslas are expensive as it is. If they were priced so the firm were actually making money selling them, I suspect they wouldn't be as popular as they are in Scandinavia.
I think the Scandinavians are much more open-minded which is what has allowed this growth here. Also, the infrastructure is totally geared up to EV's and has been for at least the past 5 years.
I've no doubt that's true. But part of your argument was that Teslas are everywhere in Scandinavia so must be doing well. Well Woolworths stores were on every high street in the UK. Just because something is ubiquitous doesn't make it successful, if the firm supplying it aren't making money.

And yes, I understand that new start ups run at a loss. But they have a plan. Year 1, lose £1m, year 2 lose £0.5m, year 3 break even, year 4, make £0.5m, year 5, make £1m, year 6 onwards is profit. Tesla are in year 11 and losing money. Can someone tell me the plan for when they go into profit, and crucially, when will the profits will be enough to cover the previous losses so that the overall venture is in profit. Year 15, year 20, year 50?

LimaDelta

6,520 posts

218 months

Friday 3rd July 2020
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For anyone who is interested, Tim Urban's Tesla piece is well worth a read. It is from 2015 and long but explains a lot about why they are so hyped.

Wait but why?

He also has a lot of SpaceX stuff on the same site FWIW.

Jau808

22 posts

46 months

Tuesday 7th July 2020
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Right now after hours the shares are at over $1430 each. That's up 13.5% in normal trading today, then another 4.4% after hours - all on no news. They were $180 a year ago, back to $369 in March, $1000 a week ago. The trading and valuation is totally disconnected from the rest of the market and what the business itself is doing.

This will be spectacular when it inevitably pops.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

254 months

Tuesday 7th July 2020
quotequote all
Jau808 said:
all on no news.
"no news"


they made a fortune hard shifting into fashion.

Jau808

22 posts

46 months

Tuesday 7th July 2020
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RobDickinson said:
Jau808 said:
all on no news.
"no news"


they made a fortune hard shifting into fashion.
'A fortune'? Selling some stupid meme shorts to the fanbois? Silly me, obviously that's incredible news and worth over $20 billion to the value of a car company.

Deluded.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

254 months

Tuesday 7th July 2020
quotequote all
they sold a LOT of shorts!

p1stonhead

25,540 posts

167 months

Tuesday 7th July 2020
quotequote all
Jau808 said:
RobDickinson said:
Jau808 said:
all on no news.
"no news"


they made a fortune hard shifting into fashion.
'A fortune'? Selling some stupid meme shorts to the fanbois? Silly me, obviously that's incredible news and worth over $20 billion to the value of a car company.

Deluded.
It’ll pop eventually. It did already once this year back in Jan/Feb.

As you say it’s literally a meme stock for people living in their parents basements.

The products remain good, but the share price or company value is nothing to do with reality.