Has the world overreacted re Covid-19
Poll: Has the world overreacted re Covid-19
Total Members Polled: 368
Discussion
poo at Paul's said:
HoHoHo said:
Simple question - has the world overreacted to this virus given there are 7.6 billion people on the planet and according to official figures 11.2m people are confirmed to have had the virus, 6m have recovered, 4.6m are still poorly and 528k have died.
Do you not think your question and reasoning is a little flawed. Using the stats that result from the reaction to question whether the reaction was an over reaction or not? 
Given the mortality rate is extremely low to the point of lottery winning numbers and as we know it mainly affects the vulnerable in society, should we have made specific plans to protect those in society who needed it rather than shut society down which in turn will without doubt have knock on effects in mental health and other illnesses that are going without treatment due to the pandemic and cause many early deaths yet to be seen.
Firstly you have to work out the real numbers.
I've always had a massive problem with how the virus was so prolific at first in rich first world countries in the northern hemisphere, a bit specific? Especially given they have the best healthcare? Why is it western Europe was so much worse affected than eastern Europe, never mind the 3rd world?
And why is it that two very similar countries, similar gene stock, outlook, healthcare, they share a sodding border, Belgium and Germany, yet one has 8 times the fatality rate?
The infection rates table is a standing joke, without random sampling its pretty meaningless.
I've heard the nhs has stated the actual death from, rather that with, is more like 1200, not the 45k.
Lets count things properly to begin with and then we can think about whether we over reacted or not.
Anyway it looks like we're planning to be all opened up in time for winter again, just in time for your seasonal lift in virus affiliated end-of-life deaths, so prepare for take 2.
I've always had a massive problem with how the virus was so prolific at first in rich first world countries in the northern hemisphere, a bit specific? Especially given they have the best healthcare? Why is it western Europe was so much worse affected than eastern Europe, never mind the 3rd world?
And why is it that two very similar countries, similar gene stock, outlook, healthcare, they share a sodding border, Belgium and Germany, yet one has 8 times the fatality rate?
The infection rates table is a standing joke, without random sampling its pretty meaningless.
I've heard the nhs has stated the actual death from, rather that with, is more like 1200, not the 45k.
Lets count things properly to begin with and then we can think about whether we over reacted or not.
Anyway it looks like we're planning to be all opened up in time for winter again, just in time for your seasonal lift in virus affiliated end-of-life deaths, so prepare for take 2.
98elise said:
That's the figures because we reacted. What would they be if it was let to run its course?
It's no different to the millennium bug. People say it was an over reaction as hardly anything happened. The reason hardly anything happened is because we reacted to it and fixed 99% of the issues before it became a problem.
It's very different, because of scale. Whether we overreacted or not is a function of the costs Vs the benefits, not between doing something and doing nothing. If the reaction to covid had only cost the same as the reaction to y2k, I doubt many people would be complaining.It's no different to the millennium bug. People say it was an over reaction as hardly anything happened. The reason hardly anything happened is because we reacted to it and fixed 99% of the issues before it became a problem.
Sophisticated Sarah said:
In hindsight yes, but at the time we were told that millions would die and this could be awful so governments took the correct actions with the crap information and advice they were given by researchers desperate for funding.
Do you have some evidence that if the whole world just carried on as usual that millions wouldn't have died?Someone on one of the threads made a fairly profound statement
From memory it was
"we underreacted in terms of what we thought the threat of the virus was in early March and overreacted in terms of what we know now about the virus in the present day"
Rates of hospitalisation were massively overestimated initially and the IFR was overestimated by around a factor of 2.
In terms of our overall response the world has overreacted as it has locked down healthy young people, causing massive economic and social damage. for little gain. At the same time, in too many countries, those most at risk have not been adequately protected.
Talking about this in population wide terms is of little use if some parts of the population are at ten thousand times the risk of other parts.
From memory it was
"we underreacted in terms of what we thought the threat of the virus was in early March and overreacted in terms of what we know now about the virus in the present day"
Rates of hospitalisation were massively overestimated initially and the IFR was overestimated by around a factor of 2.
In terms of our overall response the world has overreacted as it has locked down healthy young people, causing massive economic and social damage. for little gain. At the same time, in too many countries, those most at risk have not been adequately protected.
Talking about this in population wide terms is of little use if some parts of the population are at ten thousand times the risk of other parts.
Edited by JagLover on Sunday 5th July 12:09
Countries reacted differently and at different speeds.
If the UK had acted as quickly as say New Zealand and simply closed borders at the very early stages I don't think we'd be in the current position now.
Agreed, some UK residents would have been stuck in foreign lands but the people in the UK would have been better protected.
Instead we allowed a lot of infected people back in (along with the not infected) which spread the disease. Remember it took a couple of weeks to show after initial infection.
We were still allowing people in after lockdown and while we were supposedly in lockdown with no travelling there were folk from other countries travelling in the UK.
If the UK had acted as quickly as say New Zealand and simply closed borders at the very early stages I don't think we'd be in the current position now.
Agreed, some UK residents would have been stuck in foreign lands but the people in the UK would have been better protected.
Instead we allowed a lot of infected people back in (along with the not infected) which spread the disease. Remember it took a couple of weeks to show after initial infection.
We were still allowing people in after lockdown and while we were supposedly in lockdown with no travelling there were folk from other countries travelling in the UK.
JagLover said:
In terms of our overall response the world has overreacted as it has locked down healthy young people, causing massive economic and social damage, and, in too many countries, those most at risk have not been adequately protected.
The one-rule-fits-all approach makes very little sense.
I'm a sparky, some of my work is urgent/essential, and have been going into peoples homes since day 1, including vunerable/at risk etc people, including one old dear who decided to spray dettol directly into an electrical switch. (The idea that someone has to come in and touch surfaces to contaminate them seems to be lost on many)
I've probably been exposed as our lifestyle is pretty active and we've had a couple coughs before march, but I don't know for sure if I'm carrying/immune etc and there's no advice or testing offered for me, whatsoever really.
I carry masks gloves etc and tell people to request whatever makes them comfortable, 90+% of people give me a dont-give-a-toss shrug in my experience, including everyone from elderly to a working nurse. Although of course my sample is not representative.
I've seen everyone in homes from hairdressers to dog walkers to AV installers, throughout the pandemic.
I think if the virus was a bad as made out we'd all be dead by now.
With the passage of time Coronavirus will be seen more for its economic, societal and political impacts than it will as a public health crisis.
I supported the initial lockdown as - based on the information available at the time - it looked like the best option. It is valid to review this, but only when we are clear that we are looking through the lens of hindsight.
Some bad decisions have been made, by governments in all countries. We must accept that this is inevitable. Choices between unpalatable alternatives when you have only incomplete information are the hardest - ask the army about this! History will judge harshly where those decisions are subsequently shown to be dogmatic/political and not informed by available expertise.
That said, I think the contemporary focus on the minutiae of policy decisions - lockdown dates, rules etc - will be shown to be misguided. The virus is no respecter of borders, policies etc. I think that the differences between countries experiences will lessen over time, and will be largely explained by underlying factors like demographics, geography and public health.
I supported the initial lockdown as - based on the information available at the time - it looked like the best option. It is valid to review this, but only when we are clear that we are looking through the lens of hindsight.
Some bad decisions have been made, by governments in all countries. We must accept that this is inevitable. Choices between unpalatable alternatives when you have only incomplete information are the hardest - ask the army about this! History will judge harshly where those decisions are subsequently shown to be dogmatic/political and not informed by available expertise.
That said, I think the contemporary focus on the minutiae of policy decisions - lockdown dates, rules etc - will be shown to be misguided. The virus is no respecter of borders, policies etc. I think that the differences between countries experiences will lessen over time, and will be largely explained by underlying factors like demographics, geography and public health.
pquinn said:
Gweeds said:
As a virologist said right back in March, “if it looks like we over-reacted it means we did the right thing’.
No, it means you overreacted. This is why you don't have virologists set policy. Virologists panic about viruses. Its their job
Same as astronomers panic about comets, fire chiefs panic about fires, environmentalists panic about the environment, and so on and so on, they will all tell you that much more should be done in their particular field.
We do seem to encourage a panic-drama mindset about everything today where everyone seems to think they need to over play their agenda.
Teddy Lop said:
pquinn said:
Gweeds said:
As a virologist said right back in March, “if it looks like we over-reacted it means we did the right thing’.
No, it means you overreacted. This is why you don't have virologists set policy. Virologists panic about viruses. Its their job
Same as astronomers panic about comets, fire chiefs panic about fires, environmentalists panic about the environment, and so on and so on, they will all tell you that much more should be done in their particular field.
We do seem to encourage a panic-drama mindset about everything today where everyone seems to think they need to over play their agenda.
Isn't it just a fraction more likely that virologists have informed opinions about viruses?
As an electrician do you panic about electrocution? Do you panic about electrical fires?
The thing that sticks in my mind is...
The NHS website, for long enough, simply said "new continuous cough and/or fever". So, anyone who had it, but had other symptoms or was asymptomatic, wouldn't have self-isolated and would have been out and about spreading it around. Of the people who caught it from them, many would have had other symptoms or been asymptomatic too, and would have continued to go about their normal business and spread it around. So, in essence, it's possible that every f
ker has either got it or has had it and we're all fannying around waiting to go back to normal for no reason whatsoever.
That's my take on it.
I'm waiting for the epic spike resulting from the mass outings during recent spells of hot weather and BLM gatherings. If it doesn't happen the doomsayers are going to look a bit silly!
The NHS website, for long enough, simply said "new continuous cough and/or fever". So, anyone who had it, but had other symptoms or was asymptomatic, wouldn't have self-isolated and would have been out and about spreading it around. Of the people who caught it from them, many would have had other symptoms or been asymptomatic too, and would have continued to go about their normal business and spread it around. So, in essence, it's possible that every f
ker has either got it or has had it and we're all fannying around waiting to go back to normal for no reason whatsoever.That's my take on it.
I'm waiting for the epic spike resulting from the mass outings during recent spells of hot weather and BLM gatherings. If it doesn't happen the doomsayers are going to look a bit silly!
ATG said:
Teddy Lop said:
pquinn said:
Gweeds said:
As a virologist said right back in March, “if it looks like we over-reacted it means we did the right thing’.
No, it means you overreacted. This is why you don't have virologists set policy. Virologists panic about viruses. Its their job
Same as astronomers panic about comets, fire chiefs panic about fires, environmentalists panic about the environment, and so on and so on, they will all tell you that much more should be done in their particular field.
We do seem to encourage a panic-drama mindset about everything today where everyone seems to think they need to over play their agenda.
Isn't it just a fraction more likely that virologists have informed opinions about viruses?
As an electrician do you panic about electrocution? Do you panic about electrical fires?
Why bother with experts if we're not going to listen to their informed opinion - especially those who are directly employed by governments for the purposes of informing the decisions governments make?
Well thankfully we know what that looks like - all we have to do is look at the US right now. We're seeing exactly what happens when the advice of informed and knowledgeable people is ignored.
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