Where to go for best odds on US election?
Discussion
dvs_dave said:
Unrepentant is a real person and still around. Supposedly a Brit expat JLR salesman out of Indiana if memory serves correctly.
5ohmustang was as you suggest, but fiercely pro Trump. Supposedly he was from Preston but now based out of a log cabin in West Virginia or somewhere. Pretty sure he was a Russian troll bot as his story was very questionable and he vanished immediately after the election. No gloating, no I told you so, literally nothing. The account went dead.
Re: 5ohmustang, another name I had forgotten but he was all over the same threads as Unrepentant, albeit with opposing views.5ohmustang was as you suggest, but fiercely pro Trump. Supposedly he was from Preston but now based out of a log cabin in West Virginia or somewhere. Pretty sure he was a Russian troll bot as his story was very questionable and he vanished immediately after the election. No gloating, no I told you so, literally nothing. The account went dead.
Edited by dvs_dave on Saturday 12th September 01:56
You are spot on that he disappeared after the election. You would expect such a vehement poster to revel in the incorrect predictions of those backing the Dems in the days after Trump's victory but he totally vanished.
Not really looked into the theory of shill posters/bots infiltrating forums but it does make me wonder in retrospect.
dvs_dave said:
London424 said:
OzzyR1 said:
Can anyone remember the name of the (allegedly) US based PH-er who aggressively shouted down all forum posts in the run-up to the last US election if it was suggested that Trump might win or even had a chance?? They seemed to live on here at one point - 50+ posts a day on a single topic.
If I recall correctly, they never posted again after the result came out and Trump won - under that forum handle at least.
Pretty sure that was ‘unrepentant’. He’s still around I’m pretty sure. If I recall correctly, they never posted again after the result came out and Trump won - under that forum handle at least.
5ohmustang was as you suggest, but fiercely pro Trump. Supposedly he was from Preston but now based out of a log cabin in West Virginia or somewhere. Pretty sure he was a Russian troll bot as his story was very questionable and he vanished immediately after the election. No gloating, no I told you so, literally nothing. The account went dead.
Edited by dvs_dave on Saturday 12th September 01:56
dvs_dave said:
London424 said:
OzzyR1 said:
Can anyone remember the name of the (allegedly) US based PH-er who aggressively shouted down all forum posts in the run-up to the last US election if it was suggested that Trump might win or even had a chance?? They seemed to live on here at one point - 50+ posts a day on a single topic.
If I recall correctly, they never posted again after the result came out and Trump won - under that forum handle at least.
Pretty sure that was ‘unrepentant’. He’s still around I’m pretty sure. If I recall correctly, they never posted again after the result came out and Trump won - under that forum handle at least.
5ohmustang was as you suggest, but fiercely pro Trump. Supposedly he was from Preston but now based out of a log cabin in West Virginia or somewhere. Pretty sure he was a Russian troll bot as his story was very questionable and he vanished immediately after the election. No gloating, no I told you so, literally nothing. The account went dead.
Edited by dvs_dave on Saturday 12th September 01:56
Trump wins for my money (not that I'm betting on it). I can't see him losing regardless of what the polls say, or what he says/does, he puts his foot in it almost daily and gets away with it every time.
Trump is gone unless Biden does something huge, which I doubt. He is losing support all over the place. Even Fox is now turning against him.
Hilary lost by a small amount mostly because of a shift in the last few days due to various lies that were circulating. The supposed crimes that have now been proven to be no such thing. But she was polarising.
Biden however is from the rust belt. He is genuinely of the people and a normal person. Trump however has shown again and again he is an awful person. The fact that there is genuine fear that Trump is trying to disrupt the election, to the point of international observers wanting to be present, shows you what is going on.
Hilary lost by a small amount mostly because of a shift in the last few days due to various lies that were circulating. The supposed crimes that have now been proven to be no such thing. But she was polarising.
Biden however is from the rust belt. He is genuinely of the people and a normal person. Trump however has shown again and again he is an awful person. The fact that there is genuine fear that Trump is trying to disrupt the election, to the point of international observers wanting to be present, shows you what is going on.
Electro1980 said:
Trump however has shown again and again he is an awful person.
That's subjective though.He was widely known before being elected to be racist, misogynist, anti-LGBT, pro-Israel and generally scornful of minorities, and that got him elected... because that's what a lot of people believe in themselves.
Voting results show the majority of people in the US and UK are like that. Even Brexit voting was run along correlating lines of those sorts of beliefs (see Ashcroft polls)
maz8062 said:
In a two horse race like the POTUS election both candidates would be priced at 2 if it was a 50-50 race ( a £1 bet would return your £1 plus an additional £1 if your candidate won, well minus the commission that the betting exchange takes). When one side is a favourite their price lowers below 2 and the lower it is the stronger the favourite they are (all in the eyes of those placing bets of course, nothing else) and at the same time the other sides price goes above 2.At the moment if you stuck £100 on a Biden win you’d get your stake back plus £57 if he won. £100 on Trump would return you your £100 plus £185 ish.
Joey Deacon said:
I agree with you, I personally think Trump is going to win. As you say, people don't want to admit they are voting right wing, [b]especially in these woke times[/]. The woke people will also tend to be the most vocal, especially when it comes to social media and tend to try and shame anyone who is right wing.
It is easy to believe that the left, woke voters are in the majority as they are so vocal, but the right wing voters will outnumber them when it actually comes down to voting.
How many more right wing victories are required in the UK and US, beyond Brexit, Trump, May and then Johnson, are required to end these "woke times" you believe to exist, in which we appear to be constantly electing right wing governments? Because from where I'm sitting, looking at the government we've got and its disastrous Brexit policy, I'd say we're pretty much stuck in some dreadful "nationalist times" rather than these fabled "woke times" which you imagine to exist.It is easy to believe that the left, woke voters are in the majority as they are so vocal, but the right wing voters will outnumber them when it actually comes down to voting.
Edited by ElectricSoup on Wednesday 7th October 09:16
vulture1 said:
I suspect trump might still win, There is often a silent majority in the US. Both are pretty poor imo. A trump win will cause more riots though.
Have a look at the demographics of those who have already voted (almost 60 million early votes have been cast). The black and youth vote is up massively from last time. Come Election Day trump will already be beaten IMO.For example:
Edited by BlackLabel on Monday 26th October 12:25
BlackLabel said:
vulture1 said:
I suspect trump might still win, There is often a silent majority in the US. Both are pretty poor imo. A trump win will cause more riots though.
Have a look at the demographics of those who have already voted (almost 60 million early votes have been cast). The black and youth vote is up massively from last time. Come Election Day trump will already be beaten IMO.But don't the odds you posted about indicate a tighter spread than in 2016 despite votes already being cast and the demographics piece in play?
Maybe everyone's just significantly more sceptical of polls these days
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