Where to go for best odds on US election?
Discussion
Murph7355 said:
I'm not disagreeing with your view on the outcome - in the circumstances a Trump win would be unthinkable.
But don't the odds you posted about indicate a tighter spread than in 2016 despite votes already being cast and the demographics piece in play?
Maybe everyone's just significantly more sceptical of polls these days
You’re right the betting markets think this will be a lot closer than the opinion polls suggest. Even Obama, in 2008, didn’t have a lead as big as the current one yet he was such a short price when it came to the betting. But don't the odds you posted about indicate a tighter spread than in 2016 despite votes already being cast and the demographics piece in play?
Maybe everyone's just significantly more sceptical of polls these days
I think Trump would have won had it not been for covid - not just because of the obvious mishandling of the crisis and it’s impact on the economy but also because it would have forced Biden to campaign properly and I don’t think he has the physical and mental strength to go through a normal presidential campaign. But as it stands I think Trump is toast.
NMNeil said:
BlackLabel said:
But as it stands I think Trump is toast.
And back in 2016 the mindset was, "The people will never elect Trump". And in the same year, "The people will never vote to leave the EU"No certainties anymore.
I don't follow the US election process as closely as some on here...but Biden comes across as only looking good because Trump looks so s
t. I think his campaign managers have realised recently that Trump talking across him on debates is a poor strategy - not only does it prompt Trump to blather on about how good he is, but it also prevents Biden putting his foot in his mouth.Will be interesting to see what the outcome is (betting a grand to make 600 quid seems a bit risky to me!).
BlackLabel said:
Have a look at the demographics of those who have already voted (almost 60 million early votes have been cast). The black and youth vote is up massively from last time. Come Election Day trump will already be beaten IMO.
For example:
58.7 million early votes cast as of yesterday.For example:
In 2016 Trump got 62m, Clinton 65m.
Whatever happens turnout will likely be incredibly high.
As high as ‘08? We’ll see.
BlackLabel said:
Have a look at the demographics of those who have already voted (almost 60 million early votes have been cast). The black and youth vote is up massively from last time. Come Election Day trump will already be beaten IMO.
For example:
Just because that link says more elderly black people are voting does not mean they are voting for Biden. I expect a higher portion of elderly black voters to vote for Trump this time round as so many are against the progressive/BLM agenda (but afraid to say so) and think Trump best for economy. The left/progressives have so dominated the media and pushed BLM that many are keeping quiet on their voting intentions. Biden did terribly in the last debate too and now the emails showing potential Biden family corruption very damaging so it will be interesting to see where the undecideds go. For example:
Edited by BlackLabel on Monday 26th October 12:25
I think the election will be way closer than the polling suggests and Trump may even potentially win bigger than last time if the silent majority is large enough. Also not convinced there is so much enthusiasm for Biden outside of social media.
Edited by blackrabbit on Tuesday 27th October 20:19
Edited by blackrabbit on Tuesday 27th October 20:20
Partyvan said:
Argleton said:
ooft, you'll never see that money again. Mark my words.
I won't be that bothered if you're right! £1k is a small price to pay for Trump's effect on the political left.My feeling at the minute is that Biden will win by a margin of around 2-5%
ElectricSoup said:
How many more right wing victories are required in the UK and US, beyond Brexit, Trump, May and then Johnson, are required to end these "woke times" you believe to exist, in which we appear to be constantly electing right wing governments? Because from where I'm sitting, looking at the government we've got and its disastrous Brexit policy, I'd say we're pretty much stuck in some dreadful "nationalist times" rather than these fabled "woke times" which you imagine to exist.
This is a really interesting point. People are obsessed with banging on about how we are living in 'woke times' and how everything is 'left wing' etc, when clearly we couldn't be further from living in 'left wing times' if we tried. We are very firmly living under right-of-centre governments both here and in the US, and also living with the outcome of Brexit, and if you somehow think we are living in 'woke times' then I honestly don't know what to say to you.As for my personal views on the US election outcome, honestly I think it's too close to call and I don't think I'll be placing a bet on it anytime soon. I wouldn't even like to guess.
Lord Marylebone said:
ElectricSoup said:
How many more right wing victories are required in the UK and US, beyond Brexit, Trump, May and then Johnson, are required to end these "woke times" you believe to exist, in which we appear to be constantly electing right wing governments? Because from where I'm sitting, looking at the government we've got and its disastrous Brexit policy, I'd say we're pretty much stuck in some dreadful "nationalist times" rather than these fabled "woke times" which you imagine to exist.
This is a really interesting point. People are obsessed with banging on about how we are living in 'woke times' and how everything is 'left wing' etc, when clearly we couldn't be further from living in 'left wing times' if we tried. We are very firmly living under right-of-centre governments both here and in the US, and also living with the outcome of Brexit, and if you somehow think we are living in 'woke times' then I honestly don't know what to say to you.As for my personal views on the US election outcome, honestly I think it's too close to call and I don't think I'll be placing a bet on it anytime soon. I wouldn't even like to guess.
Woke times! Help help I'm being oppressed! Woe is me! b
ks.I'm not following this that closely but Biden, in the few clips I've seen of the "debates" and speeches comes across as a bit of a ranty nutter. Neither have any gravitas. It's going to be close but I think Trump will win.
The woke left are much louder on SM than anyone else. There is also a huge amount of virtue signalling and reputation management, the silent majority say nothing and just follow their own beliefs. It's not worth sticking your head up.
The woke left are much louder on SM than anyone else. There is also a huge amount of virtue signalling and reputation management, the silent majority say nothing and just follow their own beliefs. It's not worth sticking your head up.
And there it is.
There is no such thing as the "woke left", there is no such thing as "virtue signalling". These are tropes which are the product of right wing groupthink and echo chambers, artificially creating outrage and misinformation. Also, the right is all over social media, particularly targeting young white men with misinformation and fake claims of outrage and oppression against them. This is all part of the effort to disguise the real far right agenda of racism and nationalism.
All most of us want is a society in which everyone has equal chances and opportunities, a stable and peaceful life, a moderate middle way in which enterprise is encouraged and where those who fall by the wayside through no fault of their own are helped back on their feet. That's it. This isn't "wokism" or "virtue signalling", it's just old fashioned common decency and common sense, again concepts which the right scream about but utterly fail to embrace and demonstrate themselves. Black Lives Matter? NO!! All Lives Matter! But then some migrants drown in the channel and it's suddenly ha ha, serves them right, let's install wave machines to push them back to France ha ha, they should stay in their own stholes! Stop foreign aid, help our own first! But no not like that, don't feed poor children free meals in school holidays it's their parents' fault, sod them!
There is no such thing as the "woke left", there is no such thing as "virtue signalling". These are tropes which are the product of right wing groupthink and echo chambers, artificially creating outrage and misinformation. Also, the right is all over social media, particularly targeting young white men with misinformation and fake claims of outrage and oppression against them. This is all part of the effort to disguise the real far right agenda of racism and nationalism.
All most of us want is a society in which everyone has equal chances and opportunities, a stable and peaceful life, a moderate middle way in which enterprise is encouraged and where those who fall by the wayside through no fault of their own are helped back on their feet. That's it. This isn't "wokism" or "virtue signalling", it's just old fashioned common decency and common sense, again concepts which the right scream about but utterly fail to embrace and demonstrate themselves. Black Lives Matter? NO!! All Lives Matter! But then some migrants drown in the channel and it's suddenly ha ha, serves them right, let's install wave machines to push them back to France ha ha, they should stay in their own s
tholes! Stop foreign aid, help our own first! But no not like that, don't feed poor children free meals in school holidays it's their parents' fault, sod them!Bullett said:
I'm not following this that closely but Biden, in the few clips I've seen of the "debates" and speeches comes across as a bit of a ranty nutter.0 Neither have any gravitas. It's going to be close but I think Trump will win.
The woke left are much louder on SM than anyone else. There is also a huge amount of virtue signalling and reputation management, the silent majority say nothing and just follow their own beliefs. It's not worth sticking your head up.
Out of the two you pick Biden as the ranty nutter ? The woke left are much louder on SM than anyone else. There is also a huge amount of virtue signalling and reputation management, the silent majority say nothing and just follow their own beliefs. It's not worth sticking your head up.
There are plenty of right wingers on SM too.
I think in fairness yes our politics are dominated by the right-of-centre, but that is more down to a failure of the Labour party than the success of the Tories. Labour has an obsession with politics that are deeply unpopular like anti-Zionism, multiculturalism, pro-immigration, feminism, socialism, trade unionism etc. It's all very unpalatable to pretty much anyone outside of London, as proven in the last election.
As for the rest of society, the sphere of celebrities, corporate image and media is very left wing dominated. All very "diversity", "equality", politically correct and pro-left wing. I think this is what people refer to about "woke" society. How legitimate views and ideas are silenced, shut down and no-platformed if they are not singing off the leftie hymn sheet. It's for this reason I like Trump, he is the antithesis to all of this PC nonsense. I hope he wins, but I don't believe he will.
As for the rest of society, the sphere of celebrities, corporate image and media is very left wing dominated. All very "diversity", "equality", politically correct and pro-left wing. I think this is what people refer to about "woke" society. How legitimate views and ideas are silenced, shut down and no-platformed if they are not singing off the leftie hymn sheet. It's for this reason I like Trump, he is the antithesis to all of this PC nonsense. I hope he wins, but I don't believe he will.
Partyvan said:
I think in fairness yes our politics are dominated by the right-of-centre, but that is more down to a failure of the Labour party than the success of the Tories. Labour has an obsession with politics that are deeply unpopular like anti-Zionism, multiculturalism, pro-immigration, feminism, socialism, trade unionism etc. It's all very unpalatable to pretty much anyone outside of London, as proven in the last election.
As for the rest of society, the sphere of celebrities, corporate image and media is very left wing dominated. All very "diversity", "equality", politically correct and pro-left wing. I think this is what people refer to about "woke" society. How legitimate views and ideas are silenced, shut down and no-platformed if they are not singing off the leftie hymn sheet. It's for this reason I like Trump, he is the antithesis to all of this PC nonsense. I hope he wins, but I don't believe he will.
‘PC nonsense’ can be summed up quite simply as:As for the rest of society, the sphere of celebrities, corporate image and media is very left wing dominated. All very "diversity", "equality", politically correct and pro-left wing. I think this is what people refer to about "woke" society. How legitimate views and ideas are silenced, shut down and no-platformed if they are not singing off the leftie hymn sheet. It's for this reason I like Trump, he is the antithesis to all of this PC nonsense. I hope he wins, but I don't believe he will.
You having to make either no changes, or extremely tiny changes to your own life, to make other humans feel more included or welcome.
If you think that’s a bad thing, then it speaks volumes about you as person I’m afraid.
Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 28th October 18:31
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff