CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)

CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)

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Twinfan

10,125 posts

103 months

Monday 26th October 2020
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isaldiri said:
The oxford trial is in phase 3 trials not phase 2. No vaccine is getting approval here based on phase 2 results, interim or otherwise.
It's a Phase III trial I think, but there's an interim analysis and a final analysis by the look of it. I suspect they're going to attempt to file based on the interim analysis but the study may not be powered correctly for that to be up to the usual standards of submission. It's hard to know exactly without seeing the full protocol.

Biker 1 said:
I think initial takeup of this will be woefully low, certainly not enough to make much difference to either 'cases' or deaths.
Is there any data yet on side effects?
There's no data on anything yet, it's not complete and therefore not published.

Deep Thought

35,724 posts

196 months

Monday 26th October 2020
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The Spruce Goose said:
Boots going to offer a 12 minute test.

120 a pop can see why it is not offered on nhs. I thought this is what boris wanted.
Isnt the reason why the government arent using the quick tests currently because they arent as accurate? I think the difference is small but it seems to fall below what has been deemed an "acceptable" accuracy level.

Douglas Quaid

2,271 posts

84 months

Monday 26th October 2020
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Biker 1 said:
Twinfan said:
So corners are going to be cut in the approval process, even though some people claimed otherwise. That's definitely me out of receiving a vaccine, no chance in hell I'll be having it and I'll advise everyone I know not to take it either. Nowhere near enough people will have been followed for long enough to ensure either its efficacy or safety for widespread roll out.
I think initial takeup of this will be woefully low, certainly not enough to make much difference to either 'cases' or deaths.
Is there any data yet on side effects?
I disagree. There are people out there that won’t go out til they’ve been vaccinated. I’ve spoken to 3. A 99.9% covid survival rate doesn’t factor in. They just want a jab. I see plenty of people walking outside with masks on in the park. They’ll all be queuing up too. They won’t have a clue what the vaccine will do but will get it anyway.

croyde

22,702 posts

229 months

Monday 26th October 2020
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eMail from my private health provider offering Antibody tests for £65.

Any here had one?

Deep Thought

35,724 posts

196 months

Monday 26th October 2020
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garyhun said:
The Spruce Goose said:
Boots going to offer a 12 minute test.

120 a pop can see why it is not offered on nhs. I thought this is what boris wanted.
Although aimed at travellers, the BBC are stating that it can be used by family members for reassurance before meeting. Yeah, I can see that being a massive success at £120 a pop.
I think that we'll see a mini price war going on with covid test prices so i'd expect that to come well down quickly especially if ASDA and Tesco can get these in to their pharmacies.

isaldiri

18,412 posts

167 months

Monday 26th October 2020
quotequote all
Twinfan said:
isaldiri said:
The oxford trial is in phase 3 trials not phase 2. No vaccine is getting approval here based on phase 2 results, interim or otherwise.
It's a Phase III trial I think, but there's an interim analysis and a final analysis by the look of it. I suspect they're going to attempt to file based on the interim analysis but the study may not be powered correctly for that to be up to the usual standards of submission. It's hard to know exactly without seeing the full protocol..
Yes it seems filing for emergency approval will be based on interim analysis for phase 3 with relatively small numbers. Forbes had a rather interesting article on the trial design that pretty much said what the bmj article about them did too that the 'efficacy' part of the trial seems more directed at avoiding normal symptoms than severe disease. So perhaps it'll be effective in preventing a sore throat and dry cough.... biggrin


Twinfan

10,125 posts

103 months

Monday 26th October 2020
quotequote all
isaldiri said:
Yes it seems filing for emergency approval will be based on interim analysis for phase 3 with relatively small numbers. Forbes had a rather interesting article on the trial design that pretty much said what the bmj article about them did too that the 'efficacy' part of the trial seems more directed at avoiding normal symptoms than severe disease. So perhaps it'll be effective in preventing a sore throat and dry cough.... biggrin
Yes I saw that. It's all about reducing viral effect than preventing death per se, although you could theorise that a lesser viral impact will add up to a survival benefit. Bit hard to statistcally prove a survival benefit in a small group of healthy volunteers probably aged <65 though wink

Bullett

10,873 posts

183 months

Monday 26th October 2020
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I'm sure I saw something a while ago about 'challenge' trials. Effectively they give people the virus on purpose.
Still targets healthy test subjects mind.

Twinfan

10,125 posts

103 months

Monday 26th October 2020
quotequote all
Yep, there are plenty of trials out there. The Oxford trial we're talking about isn't a challenge trial though, I'm not sure the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has a challenge trial in place as yet.

danny tattersall

731 posts

255 months

Monday 26th October 2020
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Biker 1 said:
Looks like the media are not keeping up at the back. Surely it's totally obvious that the death risk from bat flu will be much higher if you're obese?

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-10-25/why-is-the-cor...
Ok, time to don my flame suit. If I was to fall on hard times, like I have done temporarily in the past, I would eat meals that are cheap and also healthy such as stews, broth and bulk cooking things such as Spaghetti Bolognese and converting it into chilli con carne before freezing the remainder. Perhaps that it is because, amongst other things, I have been brought up in a certain manner. Unfortunately, society appears to be too ready to make excuses for people that may have a lot more spare time on their hands, yet are more likely to order takeaways, which in turn make them more likely to be obese and not benefit from a balanced and nutritious diet. Incidentally, whilst I am on the subject of takeaways, I think it is a travesty that they received £10k grants under the Covid-19 Small Business Grant Scheme despite not being required to close. My guess is that business has never been so good.

CrutyRammers

13,735 posts

197 months

Monday 26th October 2020
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Taylor James said:
djohnson said:
johnboy1975 said:
Is Hancock incompetent? Or malicious? I'm kinda on the fence as being deliberately malicious makes no sense. On the other hand, if its incompetence, he could do a couple of hours research and be in a better place to deal with covid than he is currently....
I suspect he’s got three objectives, trying to cover himself for the inevitable public enquiry, distracting attention from the initial overreaction (closing the nhs to other conditions, trashing the economy and pushing the infected elderly into care homes) and generating some positive PR. All these objectives are served (or at least obfuscation is more possible) by him and the government having suppressed the second wave. This is why he’s going to such lengths to find (or indeed to manufacture) a second wave and is prepared to impose any cost on these economy, civil liberties and the population generally to ‘suppress’ it.
I think what looked like a sensible move - we will follow the science - has backfired. I think the scientists they chose/were in place at the time looked at this as a most interesting experiment. The government went hook, line and sinker for the glamour of a global pandemic and the scientific advice on suppression. Any voices talking about money were shouted down or ignored.

Now the economic and other consequences are becoming clear, what do the government do? Stop following the science or sack the current group of scientific advisers? Not a good political choice.

I think they've chosen to try and sneak out the back door and hope no-one notices. That translates into fudging everything over the next year or so and hiding their tracks through a blizzard of contradictory and fudged statistics and a general policy in line with social media and focus group opinion. They can identify some scapegoats along the way. The vaccine represents a mythical cavalry just over the hill.
Yes, very much this.

CrutyRammers

13,735 posts

197 months

Monday 26th October 2020
quotequote all
Elysium said:
Good chart from Alistair Haimes on Twitter, July, August and Sept all low mortality compared to previous years:

That really puts this in perspective doesn't it?

Pupbelly

1,413 posts

128 months

Monday 26th October 2020
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The Spruce Goose said:
Boots going to offer a 12 minute test.

120 a pop can see why it is not offered on nhs. I thought this is what boris wanted.
So the news headline in the Telegraph says: "Twelve-minute tests available in Boots 'within a fortnight' High-speed test will cost £120 and is aimed at those who are not exhibiting symptoms but want some peace of mind"

Yet if you read the blurb on the Lumira webpage for the product it says:

"..In clinical studies, the LumiraDx SARS-CoV-2 antigen test demonstrated 97.6% positive agreement versus RT-PCR in patients tested within 12 days of the onset of symptoms, to enable the physician to verify infection quickly, begin proper treatment and to initiate isolation precautions helping prevent further spread of infection..."


So surely if you spunk £120 'for peace of mind' and have no symptoms it will return no symptoms because it will only show if you are symptomatic?? Or am I missing something?

https://www.lumiradx.com/uk-en/what-we-do/diagnost...




Edited by Pupbelly on Monday 26th October 09:57


Edited by Pupbelly on Monday 26th October 09:57


Edited by Pupbelly on Monday 26th October 09:58


Edited by Pupbelly on Monday 26th October 10:02

anonymous-user

53 months

Monday 26th October 2020
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danny tattersall said:
Ok, time to don my flame suit. If I was to fall on hard times, like I have done temporarily in the past, I would eat meals that are cheap and also healthy such as stews, broth and bulk cooking things such as Spaghetti Bolognese and converting it into chilli con carne before freezing the remainder. Perhaps that it is because, amongst other things, I have been brought up in a certain manner. Unfortunately, society appears to be too ready to make excuses for people that may have a lot more spare time on their hands, yet are more likely to order takeaways, which in turn make them more likely to be obese and not benefit from a balanced and nutritious diet. Incidentally, whilst I am on the subject of takeaways, I think it is a travesty that they received £10k grants under the Covid-19 Small Business Grant Scheme despite not being required to close. My guess is that business has never been so good.
I think the real issue is, and this is all govs, that healthy food should be subsidised from increasing the price on junk foods.

You can buy a triple cheeseburger for 2 quid. Try and buy a balanced food for the same.

JagLover

42,265 posts

234 months

Monday 26th October 2020
quotequote all
The Spruce Goose said:
danny tattersall said:
Ok, time to don my flame suit. If I was to fall on hard times, like I have done temporarily in the past, I would eat meals that are cheap and also healthy such as stews, broth and bulk cooking things such as Spaghetti Bolognese and converting it into chilli con carne before freezing the remainder. Perhaps that it is because, amongst other things, I have been brought up in a certain manner. Unfortunately, society appears to be too ready to make excuses for people that may have a lot more spare time on their hands, yet are more likely to order takeaways, which in turn make them more likely to be obese and not benefit from a balanced and nutritious diet. Incidentally, whilst I am on the subject of takeaways, I think it is a travesty that they received £10k grants under the Covid-19 Small Business Grant Scheme despite not being required to close. My guess is that business has never been so good.
I think the real issue is, and this is all govs, that healthy food should be subsidised from increasing the price on junk foods.

You can buy a triple cheeseburger for 2 quid. Try and buy a balanced food for the same.
Frozen chicken portions, onions and a big bag of plain basmati rice.

Cost per person probably around £1.50 a meal at most.

TV8

3,118 posts

174 months

Monday 26th October 2020
quotequote all
Well this time last week, I was in need of my own circuit breaker and booked a last minute flight to Stockholm for the wife and I to see 1st hand what is happening over there.

Life is like the normal I remember. There are some common sense things in place and some spacing stickers on the floor but mostly in the big places and museums. The airport has a lot of people wearing masks but no one says anything if you don’t until you get into the airline controlled areas.

Buses and trams are not recommended during rush hour but busy and like normal the rest of the time.

Bars are seating only and fill up quickly. Stockholm is busy and buzzing.

Restaurants are equally busy and most looked fairly full. Ie not lots of tables removed.

Live music places are limited to 50 people and managed to get into a couple. The pure Jazz clubs are all booked up.

The shops are busy and on the few occasions we walked past them, large numbers night and day.

It was good and a bit weird being up close to groups of people again.

The Best thing was the absence of stupid one way systems and people wearing lightweight welding visors and hi-vis jackets herding people for their safety. Also, pretty much no masks anywhere.

There were a handful of brits doing the same thing we bumped into. One had such a good time, they are booking for New Year!

If you are feeling a bit fed up, I recommend jumping on a plane and having a break from the U.K. for a few days. Not the cheapest trip you will ever have but sanity is very important.

Edited by TV8 on Monday 26th October 10:18

Darth Paul

1,652 posts

217 months

Monday 26th October 2020
quotequote all
CrutyRammers said:
Elysium said:
Good chart from Alistair Haimes on Twitter, July, August and Sept all low mortality compared to previous years:

That really puts this in perspective doesn't it?
The monthly figures are out this morning and the total for September is the highest in the last 10 years at least. England figure is 39822, previous high was 15 with 38876. Nothing crazy, but significant enough to warrant discussion. So what do we think? Genuine Covid excess, undiagnosed conditions due to nhs under use or a combination. Discuss!

Edit to add that is about a 6% increase on last September which looked a very average number for a September. And to also add I’m playing a bit of devils advocate on this as I’m very much on the Yeadon end of the playground for this one.


Edited by Darth Paul on Monday 26th October 10:25

smashing

1,613 posts

160 months

Monday 26th October 2020
quotequote all
TV8 said:
Well this time last week, I was in need of my own circuit breaker and booked a last minute flight to Stockholm for the wife and I to see 1st hand what is happening over there.

Life is like the normal I remember. There are some common sense things in place and some spacing stickers on the floor but mostly in the big places and museums. The airport has a lot of people wearing masks but no one says anything if you don’t until you get into the airline controlled areas.

Buses and trams are not recommended during rush hour but busy and like normal the rest of the time.

Bars are seating only and fill up quickly. Stockholm is busy and buzzing.

Restaurants are equally busy and most looked fairly full. Ie not lots of tables removed.

Live music places are limited to 50 people and managed to get into a couple. The pure Jazz clubs are all booked up.

The shops are busy and on the few occasions we walked past them, large numbers night and day.

It was good and a bit weird being up close to groups of people again.

The Best thing was the absence of stupid one way systems and people wearing lightweight welding visors and hi-vis jackets herding people for their safety.

There were a handful of brits doing the same thing we bumped into. One had such a good time, they are booking for New Year!

If you are feeling a bit fed up, I recommend jumping on a plane and having a break from the U.K. for a few days. Not the cheapest trip you will ever have but sanity is very important.
That can't be right, I thought everyone in Sweden had died... twice!

danny tattersall

731 posts

255 months

Monday 26th October 2020
quotequote all
The Spruce Goose said:
danny tattersall said:
Ok, time to don my flame suit. If I was to fall on hard times, like I have done temporarily in the past, I would eat meals that are cheap and also healthy such as stews, broth and bulk cooking things such as Spaghetti Bolognese and converting it into chilli con carne before freezing the remainder. Perhaps that it is because, amongst other things, I have been brought up in a certain manner. Unfortunately, society appears to be too ready to make excuses for people that may have a lot more spare time on their hands, yet are more likely to order takeaways, which in turn make them more likely to be obese and not benefit from a balanced and nutritious diet. Incidentally, whilst I am on the subject of takeaways, I think it is a travesty that they received £10k grants under the Covid-19 Small Business Grant Scheme despite not being required to close. My guess is that business has never been so good.
I think the real issue is, and this is all govs, that healthy food should be subsidised from increasing the price on junk foods.

You can buy a triple cheeseburger for 2 quid. Try and buy a balanced food for the same.
In the case of buying pre-prepared food I agree that it might be a good idea to subsidise the healthier food by slightly increasing tax on the less healthy food. However, if I was poor I would buy the raw materials and make my own food for less money and it would be far healthier. Quite why people think takeaways are a cheaper option, or that buying a stack of frozen pizzas and chips is cheaper and/or better, is beyond me and is surely a damning indictment of how our society is failing.

grumbledoak

31,499 posts

232 months

Monday 26th October 2020
quotequote all
JagLover said:
Frozen chicken portions, onions and a big bag of plain basmati rice.

Cost per person probably around £1.50 a meal at most.
Poor comparison. You would probably be better off with the cheeseburger, as long as you skipped the fries and shake.

The fundamental problem is the government has no expertise here so the "public health" initiatives are done "in partnership" with industry. Even if people try to eat well they are following advice aimed at profits not health. They might have removed Coke from the "eatwell plate" picture but it hasn't really got any better. Proposals for our future diet - EAT Lancet diet or Rockefeller Reset the Table - are even worse, despite liberal use of "health" and "sustainable" language.

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