Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 8)

[TheJimi]

irc said:

Who would have thought last christmas that in a years time there the police would be threatening to enter homes and break up family christmas dinners?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/27/family...

"Family Christmas gatherings that breach Covid rules will be broken up, PCCs warn"

That's genuinely dystopian, and deeply disturbing.

[MOTORVATOR]

markyb_lcy said:

MOTORVATOR said:

markyb_lcy said:

I’m losing you? You were losing me, which is why I was trying to clarify whether your point was that a) people “taking the piss” or b) the loosening of restrictions was responsible for moving from decreasing prevalence to increasing prevalence. You appeared to originally assert a) but then quickly switched to b)

I haven’t accepted (in these few comments) that either one has.

You really need to come down off that fence mate. We are 8 months into this. You can’t go on supporting two opposing strategies forever. That said, I do agree that we have to pursue one or the other. The current balancing act of trying to do both appears to result in the worst of both worlds.

I'm not on any fence at all. I'm not running the show, the government is and I will support whichever way is decided upon as I don't want to see that worst of both worlds happening.

Neither have I switched tack as I clearly said six weeks ago to the deriding muppets on here "be careful what you wish for".

On the other hand you appear to be now wanting to perch very precariously on that fence with whether restrictions have any effect on prevalence or not. Well do they or don't they?

I think some of them, as a cumulative slow the spread a little, but imo not enough to justify doing them. The cost is not worth it. I think I’ve more or less said that before. Besides that, I don’t think we can suppress the thing into submission, so to what end are we slowing spread? Protect the NHS? Yea, right. How about the NHS protects us, the people who pay for it?

There are some measures which I’d sign up to without major complaint, such as not holding mass events (100 people or more) and criminalising anyone who knowingly puts older / vulnerable people at risk.

Other than that, I say let the virus do its thing, allow people to hide under their bed if they want, and the rest of us should get back to living our lives fully.

We were basically at that point end of August with the expectation of more to open up albeit we had some that thought that wasn't good enough and wanted to overstep the boundaries The problem is when the first signs of increase occurred they should have jumped on it quickly and decisively as we were only dealing with relatively minor outbreak. Hit the outbreak areas hard and fast and put those overstepping boundaries back in their boxes elsewhere.

As it was we went down the route of rule of six and masks etc for the whole country so we had restrictions where they do nothing of benefit at all and the area that actually needed sorting with insufficient measures and allowing it to propagate around the country. We didn't whack a mole we gave it a little tickle.

That I believe was a political decision to not damage the levelling up message.

The Irony is that levelling will happen but on the basis we are all fked now so levelling down when we could have been on an easier base everywhere.

Just my take on the last six weeks.

[768]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Eek.

[survivalist]

MOTORVATOR said:

markyb_lcy said:

MOTORVATOR said:

markyb_lcy said:

I’m losing you? You were losing me, which is why I was trying to clarify whether your point was that a) people “taking the piss” or b) the loosening of restrictions was responsible for moving from decreasing prevalence to increasing prevalence. You appeared to originally assert a) but then quickly switched to b)

I haven’t accepted (in these few comments) that either one has.

You really need to come down off that fence mate. We are 8 months into this. You can’t go on supporting two opposing strategies forever. That said, I do agree that we have to pursue one or the other. The current balancing act of trying to do both appears to result in the worst of both worlds.

I'm not on any fence at all. I'm not running the show, the government is and I will support whichever way is decided upon as I don't want to see that worst of both worlds happening.

Neither have I switched tack as I clearly said six weeks ago to the deriding muppets on here "be careful what you wish for".

On the other hand you appear to be now wanting to perch very precariously on that fence with whether restrictions have any effect on prevalence or not. Well do they or don't they?

I think some of them, as a cumulative slow the spread a little, but imo not enough to justify doing them. The cost is not worth it. I think I’ve more or less said that before. Besides that, I don’t think we can suppress the thing into submission, so to what end are we slowing spread? Protect the NHS? Yea, right. How about the NHS protects us, the people who pay for it?

There are some measures which I’d sign up to without major complaint, such as not holding mass events (100 people or more) and criminalising anyone who knowingly puts older / vulnerable people at risk.

Other than that, I say let the virus do its thing, allow people to hide under their bed if they want, and the rest of us should get back to living our lives fully.

We were basically at that point end of August with the expectation of more to open up albeit we had some that thought that wasn't good enough and wanted to overstep the boundaries The problem is when the first signs of increase occurred they should have jumped on it quickly and decisively as we were only dealing with relatively minor outbreak. Hit the outbreak areas hard and fast and put those overstepping boundaries back in their boxes elsewhere.

As it was we went down the route of rule of six and masks etc for the whole country so we had restrictions where they do nothing of benefit at all and the area that actually needed sorting with insufficient measures and allowing it to propagate around the country. We didn't whack a mole we gave it a little tickle.

That I believe was a political decision to not damage the levelling up message.

The Irony is that levelling will happen but on the basis we are all fked now so levelling down when we could have been on an easier base everywhere.

Just my take on the last six weeks.

Can’t see the logic behind this.

We had been opening up since beginning of June.

Surely the sudden increase in spread is because we (well, the government ) actively encouraged the return of millions of students to school and university?

You know. People from loads of different parts of the country, and households previously living separately, all congregating indoors in close quarters.

No, can’t be that. Must be those ‘overstepping’ the boundaries.

If you really believe this, then I hope no one shatters your world when you find out the tooth fairy and Santa may not be real after all.

[chrisgtx]

768 said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Eek.

Although scary.
He does appear to be the same type of person who likes pushing the boundaries of ‘tuning’ and got 296 bhp from a 1.6 ported Saxo.

[survivalist]

chrisgtx said:

768 said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Eek.

Although scary.
He does appear to be the same type of person who likes pushing the boundaries of ‘tuning’ and got 296 bhp from a 1.6 ported Saxo.

In the long term, it’s not that scary. It’s not dissimilar to seasonal flu. There is no long term immunity for that either and yet we seem to continue to survive.

In the short term it may hit some demographics harder.

Sadly we seem to be hell bent on spending our limited funds on trying to supress the virus rather than build a longer term strategy to minimise the impact.

[towser44]

survivalist said:

chrisgtx said:

768 said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Eek.

Although scary.
He does appear to be the same type of person who likes pushing the boundaries of ‘tuning’ and got 296 bhp from a 1.6 ported Saxo.

In the long term, it’s not that scary. It’s not dissimilar to seasonal flu. There is no long term immunity for that either and yet we seem to continue to survive.

In the short term it may hit some demographics harder.

Sadly we seem to be hell bent on spending our limited funds on trying to supress the virus rather than build a longer term strategy to minimise the impact.

There was a pro-cyclist in the Giro D'Italia who had to leave the race last week due to a positive test. He also had to leave a race earlier in the year as he had it then too.

[3454.5]

To answer the OP, history tells us that many viruses have not wiped us out.
It might be that we now have to accept that this virus might kill many, considering the caveats being introduced about any vaccine(s).
There will still be more than enough Humans to carry on.
It is not worth the economic destruction to carry on the current pretence that the virus can be "defeated".

[HoHoHo]

3454.5 said:

To answer the OP, history tells us that many viruses have not wiped us out.
It might be that we now have to accept that this virus might kill many, considering the caveats being introduced about any vaccine(s).
There will still be more than enough Humans to carry on.
It is not worth the economic destruction to carry on the current pretence that the virus can be "defeated".

It’s interesting that 50 years ago if you lived to 70 you were doing well, now we’ve decided that 84 isn’t old enough and we need to do everything we can to ensure you live to 90.

[MOTORVATOR]

survivalist said:

Can’t see the logic behind this.

We had been opening up since beginning of June.

Surely the sudden increase in spread is because we (well, the government ) actively encouraged the return of millions of students to school and university?

You know. People from loads of different parts of the country, and households previously living separately, all congregating indoors in close quarters.

No, can’t be that. Must be those ‘overstepping’ the boundaries.

If you really believe this, then I hope no one shatters your world when you find out the tooth fairy and Santa may not be real after all.

Not sure what bit you find amusing. Of course the opening up of areas created an increase, Flagrant disregard for what was left in place would have made that increase worse.

Very fine buffer they were working on and idiots haven't helped or are you really claiming they made no difference?

[survivalist]

MOTORVATOR said:

survivalist said:

Can’t see the logic behind this.

We had been opening up since beginning of June.

Surely the sudden increase in spread is because we (well, the government ) actively encouraged the return of millions of students to school and university?

You know. People from loads of different parts of the country, and households previously living separately, all congregating indoors in close quarters.

No, can’t be that. Must be those ‘overstepping’ the boundaries.

If you really believe this, then I hope no one shatters your world when you find out the tooth fairy and Santa may not be real after all.

Not sure what bit you find amusing. Of course the opening up of areas created an increase, Flagrant disregard for what was left in place would have made that increase worse.

Very fine buffer they were working on and idiots haven't helped or are you really claiming they made no difference?

Indeed I am.

For the most part people have kept in line with guidance. The reason for the increase in 'cases' is entirely driven by behaviour wholly endorsed by government policy and not 'rule breakers'.

ETA spelling

[MOTORVATOR]

survivalist said:

MOTORVATOR said:

survivalist said:

Can’t see the logic behind this.

We had been opening up since beginning of June.

Surely the sudden increase in spread is because we (well, the government ) actively encouraged the return of millions of students to school and university?

You know. People from loads of different parts of the country, and households previously living separately, all congregating indoors in close quarters.

No, can’t be that. Must be those ‘overstepping’ the boundaries.

If you really believe this, then I hope no one shatters your world when you find out the tooth fairy and Santa may not be real after all.

Not sure what bit you find amusing. Of course the opening up of areas created an increase, Flagrant disregard for what was left in place would have made that increase worse.

Very fine buffer they were working on and idiots haven't helped or are you really claiming they made no difference?

Indeed I am.

For the most part people have kept in line with guidance. The reason for the increase in 'cases' is entirely driven by behaviour wholly endorsed by government policy and not 'rule breakers'.

ETA spelling

Wow 100% compliance.

[Terminator X]

Dr Z said:

I'm looking at this one:



The epidemic is tracking faster and at the worser range of the forecast at the moment. It's not sustainable.

From a report in July:

https://acmedsci.ac.uk/file-download/51353957

Lol'ing at Armageddon predictions, there are only so many 80 year olds left. When most are gone ...

TX.

[poo at Paul's]

There’s very little social distancing in towns and cities for some time now. I travel a lot with work still, just ipuk for the last few weeks, and even in tier 3 areas, it seems many ignore the social distancing guidance.

I honestly think that’s the key to it, other things may help, but staying physically distanced from each other and random people etc is what makes the biggest difference IMO.

And when levels dropped after the first lockdown. Any areas that had poor social distancing ‘got away with it’ for a fair while just because levels in the community were so low after lockdown.
As those levels are on the rise again, case numbers will increase not because people are doing anything different, just because there’s more of it about and how many have been behaving for months and months is now being exploited by the virus.

Our area has very low levels of the virus per the stats etc, but it’s only a matter of time. I rode though a local tourist town on Sunday, and it was teeming with visitors and locals, very cramped on the pavements, no distancing going on, no masks on in the street, despite plenty of signs up everywhere from council etc telling people to keep space etc. But the sheer numbers just mean it is not possible, the on,y yes it can be is for people to turn up, see it is packed and fk off again.
And this tourist town is only 30 mile from a place gone to tier 3 this week.

Just too many people not paying attention to it all now. I think that is the reason it’s on the rise again. But with local lockdowns and wishy washy ones at that, people will just carry on ignoring social distancing or just going out of area and ignoring it.
It is a shame, there’s still the vast majority of people going about their business and not catching this, but it’s possible that the actions of a few will fk it up for everyone soon.

Edited by poo at Paul's on Wednesday 28th October 23:31

[markyb_lcy]

poo at Paul's said:

Just too many people not paying attention to it all now. I think that is the reason it’s on the rise again. But with local lockdowns and wishy washy ones at that, people will just carry on ignoring social distancing or just going out of area and ignoring it.
It is a shame, there’s still the vast majority of people going about their business and not catching this, but it’s possible that the actions of a few will fk it up for everyone soon.

Edited by poo at Paul's on Wednesday 28th October 23:31

Says the guy travelling up and down the country to earn a living

[isaldiri]

MX5Biologist said:

Flu wasn't always as "benign" as it is nowadays. It probably crossed the species barrier 2000 years ago. A particularly deadly strain was in the early 19th Century, and hit Russia with a 90% mortality rate. Today, H5N1 has a mortality rate of 50%.

H5N1 isn't an endemic seasonal flu strain either though, same with H7N9. And actually isn't it theorised in some cases that the very severe zoonotic strains that have high fatality rates simply are not likely to be as infectious and transmit as well as the 'normal' strains as the very fact they tend to be lower respiratory tract infections (which is why they are much more severe) doesn't lend itself easily to transmission?

[poo at Paul's]

markyb_lcy said:

poo at Paul's said:

Just too many people not paying attention to it all now. I think that is the reason it’s on the rise again. But with local lockdowns and wishy washy ones at that, people will just carry on ignoring social distancing or just going out of area and ignoring it.
It is a shame, there’s still the vast majority of people going about their business and not catching this, but it’s possible that the actions of a few will fk it up for everyone soon.

Edited by poo at Paul's on Wednesday 28th October 23:31

Says the guy travelling up and down the country to earn a living

Yes, which I am allowed to do. But I also don’t partake of hospitality when I am on the road, I rarely stay in hotels now, don’t go drinking, take my lunch with me, I keep socially distanced wherever I go, I wear full Ppe (n99 masks, gloves, eye shield etc) at all clients I visit, ( I have to or they won’t let me in), I buy my petrol using and app and wear gloves etc etc when using pump, have spray IPA on me at all times, etc. The nature of my work means we need to be VERY careful indeed, but to be fair, it’s pretty easy, just need to be a bit better prepared that we used to have to be. And fingers crossed, 8 months in, staff of 74 in the company not a single incident, infections or scares, yet.
I’d suggest that the fact that we have worked throughout this pandemic, travelled round uk, and Europe this year and not caught it, suggests it is entirely possible to carry on with a bit of care, and not catch it. It is a shame the inhabitants of Manchester, Leicester, Nottingham etc can’t be as careful, or we’d be a st load better off that we currently are!
So don’t be stupid and think it is people like me catching this, it just isn’t. It’s people that we all see in populated areas who are going about their business like there is no pandemic and they never watch the news. And they’re everywhere, sadly.
The reason local lockdowns won’t and haven’t worked is because they are ‘local’. The need for them is because of the numerous stupid or smart arsed people ignoring the rules and guidance that the many millions of us are adhering to, ( and have been for 8 months or so) so they catch it in large numbers, spread it about and get a lockdown. Trouble is, many of them will ignore it or just go and be stupid and not take care 30 miles away instead, where the pubs and shops are open with no or less restrictions.
And it is them that are fking it up for the rest of us and may well push us down the route of a full nationwide lockdown soon, but of course, they will blame the Govt for that.
I suggest you get out and about a bit yourself, if you’re allowed, you may see what I mean.

[markyb_lcy]

poo at Paul's said:

markyb_lcy said:

poo at Paul's said:

Just too many people not paying attention to it all now. I think that is the reason it’s on the rise again. But with local lockdowns and wishy washy ones at that, people will just carry on ignoring social distancing or just going out of area and ignoring it.
It is a shame, there’s still the vast majority of people going about their business and not catching this, but it’s possible that the actions of a few will fk it up for everyone soon.

Edited by poo at Paul's on Wednesday 28th October 23:31

Says the guy travelling up and down the country to earn a living

Yes, which I am allowed to do. But I also don’t partake of hospitality when I am on the road, I rarely stay in hotels now, don’t go drinking, take my lunch with me, I keep socially distanced wherever I go, I wear full Ppe (n99 masks, gloves, eye shield etc) at all clients I visit, ( I have to or they won’t let me in), I buy my petrol using and app and wear gloves etc etc when using pump, have spray IPA on me at all times, etc. The nature of my work means we need to be VERY careful indeed, but to be fair, it’s pretty easy, just need to be a bit better prepared that we used to have to be. And fingers crossed, 8 months in, staff of 74 in the company not a single incident, infections or scares, yet.
I’d suggest that the fact that we have worked throughout this pandemic, travelled round uk, and Europe this year and not caught it, suggests it is entirely possible to carry on with a bit of care, and not catch it. It is a shame the inhabitants of Manchester, Leicester, Nottingham etc can’t be as careful, or we’d be a st load better off that we currently are!
So don’t be stupid and think it is people like me catching this, it just isn’t. It’s people that we all see in populated areas who are going about their business like there is no pandemic and they never watch the news. And they’re everywhere, sadly.
The reason local lockdowns won’t and haven’t worked is because they are ‘local’. The need for them is because of the numerous stupid or smart arsed people ignoring the rules and guidance that the many millions of us are adhering to, ( and have been for 8 months or so) so they catch it in large numbers, spread it about and get a lockdown. Trouble is, many of them will ignore it or just go and be stupid and not take care 30 miles away instead, where the pubs and shops are open with no or less restrictions.
And it is them that are fking it up for the rest of us and may well push us down the route of a full nationwide lockdown soon, but of course, they will blame the Govt for that.
I suggest you get out and about a bit yourself, if you’re allowed, you may see what I mean.

So it’s only the people in Tier 3 areas not complying?

Let’s assume that’s the case (I don’t believe it is but whatever).

What makes you think people who won’t follow the rules in a local lockdown in a tier 3 area will suddenly decide to follow rules if there was a national lockdown?

[Zoobeef]

poo at Paul's said:

Yes, which I am allowed to do. But I also don’t partake of hospitality when I am on the road, I rarely stay in hotels now, don’t go drinking, take my lunch with me, I keep socially distanced wherever I go, I wear full Ppe (n99 masks, gloves, eye shield etc) at all clients I visit, ( I have to or they won’t let me in), I buy my petrol using and app and wear gloves etc etc when using pump, have spray IPA on me at all times, etc. The nature of my work means we need to be VERY careful indeed, but to be fair, it’s pretty easy, just need to be a bit better prepared that we used to have to be. And fingers crossed, 8 months in, staff of 74 in the company not a single incident, infections or scares, yet.
I’d suggest that the fact that we have worked throughout this pandemic, travelled round uk, and Europe this year and not caught it, suggests it is entirely possible to carry on with a bit of care, and not catch it. It is a shame the inhabitants of Manchester, Leicester, Nottingham etc can’t be as careful, or we’d be a st load better off that we currently are!
So don’t be stupid and think it is people like me catching this, it just isn’t. It’s people that we all see in populated areas who are going about their business like there is no pandemic and they never watch the news. And they’re everywhere, sadly.
The reason local lockdowns won’t and haven’t worked is because they are ‘local’. The need for them is because of the numerous stupid or smart arsed people ignoring the rules and guidance that the many millions of us are adhering to, ( and have been for 8 months or so) so they catch it in large numbers, spread it about and get a lockdown. Trouble is, many of them will ignore it or just go and be stupid and not take care 30 miles away instead, where the pubs and shops are open with no or less restrictions.
And it is them that are fking it up for the rest of us and may well push us down the route of a full nationwide lockdown soon, but of course, they will blame the Govt for that.
I suggest you get out and about a bit yourself, if you’re allowed, you may see what I mean.

Just keep flapping.

[poo at Paul's]

Zoobeef said:

Just keep flapping.

Says the man who never goes anywhere and never does anything!!
How’s the furlough going? A few more days, then you will have to get back to actual work, holiday is over.