Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 8)

[Leptons]

Muncher said:

How do we think the vaccine will be administered in practice? A free for all for certain age groups in an area, just line up and join the queue? Timed appointments surely can't work as there would be too much wasteage. Running 24 hours a day?

Through the (empty) testing centres presumably. Similar process to getting a test, online appointment etc.

[Muncher]

Leptons said:

Through the (empty) testing centres presumably. Similar process to getting a test, online appointment etc.

From what I've heard I don't think the testing centres are going to be used for that, at least not around here, new venues for vaccinations are being set up, multiple ones in our town. If that is the case across the UK I can see millions of doses being administered every single day potentially.

[Murph7355]

markyb_lcy said:

I think the best we can hope for is a few months of summer with relative freedom (but not "normal") before being put back under some restrictions heading into autumn-winter 2021 with the threat of lockdown again if covid or influenza "cases" "surge".

Would not be surprised if we have another 2-3 winters like that.

The bar by which the govt and the wider public go into hysteria mode will get lower, and lower. Mass testing will be inflicted (expected and propgandised over but not quite mandated) on the population that are waiting for the vaccine.
...

I don't see that happening.

I can see preparedness for measures with Covid if cases rise. But not flu.

I can see that lasting a couple of years perhaps.

But I very much doubt the govt will want to impose the measures if it can be helped.

Let's just hope the vaccine is long enough lasting.

[markyb_lcy]

Murph7355 said:

markyb_lcy said:

I think the best we can hope for is a few months of summer with relative freedom (but not "normal") before being put back under some restrictions heading into autumn-winter 2021 with the threat of lockdown again if covid or influenza "cases" "surge".

Would not be surprised if we have another 2-3 winters like that.

The bar by which the govt and the wider public go into hysteria mode will get lower, and lower. Mass testing will be inflicted (expected and propgandised over but not quite mandated) on the population that are waiting for the vaccine.
...

I don't see that happening.

I can see preparedness for measures with Covid if cases rise. But not flu.

I can see that lasting a couple of years perhaps.

But I very much doubt the govt will want to impose the measures if it can be helped.

Let's just hope the vaccine is long enough lasting.

You’ve got more faith in common sense with this lot than I have, Murph.

Hancock was banging on the other week to the Health Select Committee that regarding track and trace “now we have built it we can’t let it go” (or words to that effect) and suggesting mobilising the apparatus against other respiratory diseases such as Flu.

[TheJimi]

Murph7355 said:

markyb_lcy said:

I think the best we can hope for is a few months of summer with relative freedom (but not "normal") before being put back under some restrictions heading into autumn-winter 2021 with the threat of lockdown again if covid or influenza "cases" "surge".

Would not be surprised if we have another 2-3 winters like that.

The bar by which the govt and the wider public go into hysteria mode will get lower, and lower. Mass testing will be inflicted (expected and propgandised over but not quite mandated) on the population that are waiting for the vaccine.
...

I don't see that happening.

I can see preparedness for measures with Covid if cases rise. But not flu.

I can see that lasting a couple of years perhaps.

But I very much doubt the govt will want to impose the measures if it can be helped.

Let's just hope the vaccine is long enough lasting.

I'd bet a lot of money that we'll still be talking about masks & restrictions this time next year.

[don'tbesilly]

TheJimi said:

Murph7355 said:

markyb_lcy said:

I think the best we can hope for is a few months of summer with relative freedom (but not "normal") before being put back under some restrictions heading into autumn-winter 2021 with the threat of lockdown again if covid or influenza "cases" "surge".

Would not be surprised if we have another 2-3 winters like that.

The bar by which the govt and the wider public go into hysteria mode will get lower, and lower. Mass testing will be inflicted (expected and propgandised over but not quite mandated) on the population that are waiting for the vaccine.
...

I don't see that happening.

I can see preparedness for measures with Covid if cases rise. But not flu.

I can see that lasting a couple of years perhaps.

But I very much doubt the govt will want to impose the measures if it can be helped.

Let's just hope the vaccine is long enough lasting.

I'd bet a lot of money that we'll still be talking about masks & restrictions this time next year.

I'd agree, the Govt have already advised the clinically vulnerable that have the vaccine (amongst the first in the queue) will still need to follow the same basic guidelines that exist today, and for quite some time.

[ruggedscotty]

don'tbesilly said:

TheJimi said:

Murph7355 said:

markyb_lcy said:

I think the best we can hope for is a few months of summer with relative freedom (but not "normal") before being put back under some restrictions heading into autumn-winter 2021 with the threat of lockdown again if covid or influenza "cases" "surge".

Would not be surprised if we have another 2-3 winters like that.

The bar by which the govt and the wider public go into hysteria mode will get lower, and lower. Mass testing will be inflicted (expected and propgandised over but not quite mandated) on the population that are waiting for the vaccine.
...

I don't see that happening.

I can see preparedness for measures with Covid if cases rise. But not flu.

I can see that lasting a couple of years perhaps.

But I very much doubt the govt will want to impose the measures if it can be helped.

Let's just hope the vaccine is long enough lasting.

I'd bet a lot of money that we'll still be talking about masks & restrictions this time next year.

I'd agree, the Govt have already advised the clinically vulnerable that have the vaccine (amongst the first in the queue) will still need to follow the same basic guidelines that exist today, and for quite some time.

This is only as its going to take time to get the vaccine out across the country. I dont think we will still be under the same restrictions once the vaccine has become established through a significant portion of the population. This is what will allow the restrictions to reduce.

[markyb_lcy]

ruggedscotty said:

don'tbesilly said:

TheJimi said:

Murph7355 said:

markyb_lcy said:

I think the best we can hope for is a few months of summer with relative freedom (but not "normal") before being put back under some restrictions heading into autumn-winter 2021 with the threat of lockdown again if covid or influenza "cases" "surge".

Would not be surprised if we have another 2-3 winters like that.

The bar by which the govt and the wider public go into hysteria mode will get lower, and lower. Mass testing will be inflicted (expected and propgandised over but not quite mandated) on the population that are waiting for the vaccine.
...

I don't see that happening.

I can see preparedness for measures with Covid if cases rise. But not flu.

I can see that lasting a couple of years perhaps.

But I very much doubt the govt will want to impose the measures if it can be helped.

Let's just hope the vaccine is long enough lasting.

I'd bet a lot of money that we'll still be talking about masks & restrictions this time next year.

I'd agree, the Govt have already advised the clinically vulnerable that have the vaccine (amongst the first in the queue) will still need to follow the same basic guidelines that exist today, and for quite some time.

This is only as its going to take time to get the vaccine out across the country. I dont think we will still be under the same restrictions once the vaccine has become established through a significant portion of the population. This is what will allow the restrictions to reduce.

Reduce, yes. Disappear (aka “back to normal”) unlikely, imo, for a significant amount of time. Even if and when we do, I expect we will always be just a few reports of new or existing viruses “surging” putting us back into deep hysteria mode. This whole episode has set new precedents imo.

[don'tbesilly]

ruggedscotty said:

don'tbesilly said:

TheJimi said:

Murph7355 said:

markyb_lcy said:

I think the best we can hope for is a few months of summer with relative freedom (but not "normal") before being put back under some restrictions heading into autumn-winter 2021 with the threat of lockdown again if covid or influenza "cases" "surge".

Would not be surprised if we have another 2-3 winters like that.

The bar by which the govt and the wider public go into hysteria mode will get lower, and lower. Mass testing will be inflicted (expected and propgandised over but not quite mandated) on the population that are waiting for the vaccine.
...

I don't see that happening.

I can see preparedness for measures with Covid if cases rise. But not flu.

I can see that lasting a couple of years perhaps.

But I very much doubt the govt will want to impose the measures if it can be helped.

Let's just hope the vaccine is long enough lasting.

I'd bet a lot of money that we'll still be talking about masks & restrictions this time next year.

I'd agree, the Govt have already advised the clinically vulnerable that have the vaccine (amongst the first in the queue) will still need to follow the same basic guidelines that exist today, and for quite some time.

This is only as its going to take time to get the vaccine out across the country. I dont think we will still be under the same restrictions once the vaccine has become established through a significant portion of the population. This is what will allow the restrictions to reduce.

Agreed, I'd guess the restrictions such as Tiering etc will disappear, however, the basic stuff masks/SD/Handwashing etc will continue long into next year.

[Dog Star]

So on the news this morning - French ex-president Giscard d'Estaing has died "of coronavirus" at 94 years old.
He'd "been in hospital several times in the past few months for heart problems".

So he didn't really die of coronavirus, did he.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/03/valery...

[MOTORVATOR]

isaldiri said:

MX5Biologist said:

Disease surveillance won't halt, so the requirement for a booster will depend on if Sars-Cov-2 is still in circulation.

Isn't it also possible the impact of sars-cov2 simply reduces to something far more like one of the hcovs over time after the first round of vaccinations/infections that should leave some immune memory?

Taking aside the long term monitoring to ensure vaccine remains effective with time, I guess the question many would like to know the answer to is whether it is actually possible to generate a level of immunity within a community that will allow normal life without interventions while prevalence is naturally controlled.

We have never proved herd immunity principles are possible or at what level even with natural infections despite the claims.

I'm surprised we haven't seen something like a single town announced as everyone over say 18 being vaccinated and monitored to determine that and just seems like an easy research take as you would get information relatively quickly from it which could shape future response?

[markyb_lcy]

MOTORVATOR said:

I'm surprised we haven't seen something like a single town announced as everyone over say 18 being vaccinated and monitored to determine that and just seems like an easy research take as you would get information relatively quickly from it which could shape future response?

That would require mandatory vaccination, which under current laws is not legally achievable. It’s such a toxic issue too, that I don’t think even this govt in this time, even at a single-town-level would go for it.

[isaldiri]

MOTORVATOR said:

Taking aside the long term monitoring to ensure vaccine remains effective with time, I guess the question many would like to know the answer to is whether it is actually possible to generate a level of immunity within a community that will allow normal life without interventions while prevalence is naturally controlled.

We have never proved herd immunity principles are possible or at what level even with natural infections despite the claims.

What do you think ended the 1918 flu pandemic or any other of the constantly circulating respiratory diseases?

previously RTB here had speculated the initial impact of the emergence of the hcovs might well have caused a similarly large impact as sars-cov2 but over time it's just another mainly cold causing virus. Hcov- OC43 is in some reports possibly linked to the severe Russian flu pandemic of the 1890s as it was linked back to emerging then.

Vaccine or not after a couple of infection cycles there's fairly good reason to think sars-cov2 will simply become hcov5 joining the other 4.

[MOTORVATOR]

isaldiri said:

MOTORVATOR said:

Taking aside the long term monitoring to ensure vaccine remains effective with time, I guess the question many would like to know the answer to is whether it is actually possible to generate a level of immunity within a community that will allow normal life without interventions while prevalence is naturally controlled.

We have never proved herd immunity principles are possible or at what level even with natural infections despite the claims.

What do you think ended the 1918 flu pandemic or any other of the constantly circulating respiratory diseases?

previously RTB here had speculated the initial impact of the emergence of the hcovs might well have caused a similarly large impact as sars-cov2 but over time it's just another mainly cold causing virus. Hcov- OC43 is in some reports possibly linked to the severe Russian flu pandemic of the 1890s as it was linked back to emerging then.

Vaccine or not after a couple of infection cycles there's fairly good reason to think sars-cov2 will simply become hcov5 joining the other 4.

I totally agree but we have mid term unknowns at present which leaves everyone estimating. Seems an easy take as I say to determine firstly how much vaccine derived immunity will pull down forward infection and hence what general level of immunity will be required to release at least the majority of the major interventions.

Surely if you are into government planning you would want to get an accurate assessment of those to determine how and when we will come out of this?

[MOTORVATOR]

markyb_lcy said:

That would require mandatory vaccination.

Why?

[markyb_lcy]

MOTORVATOR said:

markyb_lcy said:

That would require mandatory vaccination.

Why?

Why would it require mandatory vaccination to ensure every single person in a given town was vaccinated?

Just to clarify this is the question you’re asking?

The potential alternative would be to survey the whole country to find such a place. I personally don’t think they would find one.

[MOTORVATOR]

markyb_lcy said:

MOTORVATOR said:

markyb_lcy said:

That would require mandatory vaccination.

Why?

Why would it require mandatory vaccination to ensure every single person in a given town was vaccinated?

Just to clarify this is the question you’re asking?

The potential alternative would be to survey the whole country to find such a place. I personally don’t think they would find one.

Right I see what you're saying, sorry badly worded from me, everyone over 18 offered vaccination immediately rather than the national rollout plan.

Assuming take up is similar to what the country would see, you would then know whether that level was going to achieve the aim of immunity at a level that allows the ultimate removal of interventions which is what we all seek.

Just seems an easy one to do with a cohort of say 50k treated differently to the rollout program. If you only get say 50% take up and it doesn't achieve what is needed you know you need to sell it harder to get the economy back up etc.

[markyb_lcy]

MOTORVATOR said:

markyb_lcy said:

MOTORVATOR said:

markyb_lcy said:

That would require mandatory vaccination.

Why?

Why would it require mandatory vaccination to ensure every single person in a given town was vaccinated?

Just to clarify this is the question you’re asking?

The potential alternative would be to survey the whole country to find such a place. I personally don’t think they would find one.

Right I see what you're saying, sorry badly worded from me, everyone over 18 offered vaccination immediately rather than the national rollout plan.

Assuming take up is similar to what the country would see, you would then know whether that level was going to achieve the aim of immunity at a level that allows the ultimate removal of interventions which is what we all seek.

Just seems an easy one to do with a cohort of say 50k treated differently to the rollout program. If you only get say 50% take up and it doesn't achieve what is needed you know you need to sell it harder to get the economy back up etc.

Gotcha. Fair idea, I can’t find all that much wrong with it other than the political cost of lots of people being annoyed that their area wasn’t the chosen one. The only other thing I thought of is that people don’t really just stay within their town ordinarily. It would give a good general idea though.

I find the narrative around the vaccine in the mainstream press a little irritating. The focus imo should be on delivering the vaccine to those that absolutely need it most. I believe the govt is attempting to do that, but the press are full of stories such as “What is the vaccine and when will I get it?”. The framing is too weighted towards the personal and away from the societal.

[TheJimi]

MX5Biologist said:

isaldiri said:

MOTORVATOR said:

Taking aside the long term monitoring to ensure vaccine remains effective with time, I guess the question many would like to know the answer to is whether it is actually possible to generate a level of immunity within a community that will allow normal life without interventions while prevalence is naturally controlled.

We have never proved herd immunity principles are possible or at what level even with natural infections despite the claims.

What do you think ended the 1918 flu pandemic or any other of the constantly circulating respiratory diseases?

previously RTB here had speculated the initial impact of the emergence of the hcovs might well have caused a similarly large impact as sars-cov2 but over time it's just another mainly cold causing virus. Hcov- OC43 is in some reports possibly linked to the severe Russian flu pandemic of the 1890s as it was linked back to emerging then.

Vaccine or not after a couple of infection cycles there's fairly good reason to think sars-cov2 will simply become hcov5 joining the other 4.

I'd throw in a few other terms for people to look up and ponder; ultravirulance, vaccine resistance, Marek's Disease.

What's your point? I'm not sure I understand the relevance of what you've just said versus isaldiri's post that you responded to.

[Mahalo]

MX5Biologist said:

I'd throw in a few other terms for people to look up and ponder; ultravirulance, vaccine resistance, Marek's Disease.

Thanks for that - I was aware of the evolutionary pressure theory of virus development but the article on Marek's disease is particularly interesting.