Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 8)

[markyb_lcy]

ruggedscotty said:

Its been pretty intense and a lot of st going on for many. but I do think were seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.

Of course, I hope you’re right with this, but more and more I’m losing what little faith I have left.

[anonymous-user]

i4got said:

FourWheelDrift said:

Looks like Italy is going to overtake us on cases and deaths in the next few days. - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The BBC will be bereft. The one thing that cheers them up is a headline saying the UK is the worst in Europe. They roll the same headline out at least once a week.

This is the Italy with a ridiculously hard lockdown in the spring, yes?

[Jim the Sunderer]

New Business Traveller exemption: From 4am on Sat 5th Dec high-value business travellers💼will no longer need to self-isolate when returning to ENGLAND from a country NOT in a travel corridor, allowing more travel to support the economy and jobs. Conditions apply.


Rich business travellers are too important to use a telephone during a pandemic.

What a disgrace.

[andy43]

ruggedscotty said:

This covid thing dont trust it, some it takes and some it doesnt. Unpredictable. no telling how it will affect you.

Surely not?
I thought we had a clear and concise vulnerable illnesses list.
Govt approved, NHS, CDC yada yada...
Or maybe, just maybe, without a full blood count, head to toe mri scan and a full heart screening the week before you plan to get covid there’s no way of knowing if it’ll affect you, kill you, damage you or just give you “a slight cold you big wuss”.
Good news about your guy anyway

[isaldiri]

Landcrab_Six said:

This is the Italy with a ridiculously hard lockdown in the spring, yes?

That is italy, the country very heavily affected in spring by covid having much the same problem again now. Just like a lot of other countries who were hard hit in spring like Spain, belgium, France and the UK who have all been relatively harder hit than their neighbours again.

[i4got]

isaldiri said:

Landcrab_Six said:

This is the Italy with a ridiculously hard lockdown in the spring, yes?

That is italy, the country very heavily affected in spring by covid having much the same problem again now. Just like a lot of other countries who were hard hit in spring like Spain, belgium, France and the UK who have all been relatively harder hit than their neighbours again.

Really - my impression is that the UK wave 2 has been much less that other European wave 2s. We've certainly not stressed our services in any way.

[anonymous-user]

isaldiri said:

Landcrab_Six said:

This is the Italy with a ridiculously hard lockdown in the spring, yes?

That is italy, the country very heavily affected in spring by covid having much the same problem again now. Just like a lot of other countries who were hard hit in spring like Spain, belgium, France and the UK who have all been relatively harder hit than their neighbours again.

It’s almost like it will do its thing and we can’t really do much to control it.

[isaldiri]

i4got said:

Really - my impression is that the UK wave 2 has been much less that other European wave 2s. We've certainly not stressed our services in any way.

A little better perhaps but not really all that different. And our services never did get stressed earlier as the NHS simply turfed out and/or stopped treating a lot of people in spring....



For whatever reason, the countries that were harder hit earlier had relatively worse outcomes than nearby neighbours again now. .

[CoolHands]

The numbers are useless anyway. Is that all countries reporting the same thing? Is that deaths with covid or of covid. Are the smaller countries like Hungary etc testing and reporting as much?

I see no value in the reporting

[kayc]

So slightly off topic but interesting that Uk flu rate is 10 times lower this year than last according to PHE..and last year was low anyway..is Covid just Flu?600 cases of Flu across the whole of the UK last week..really?..i think the govt needs to answer a few questions.

[dmahon]

kayc said:

So slightly off topic but interesting that Uk flu rate is 10 times lower this year than last according to PHE..and last year was low anyway..is Covid just Flu?600 cases of Flu across the whole of the UK last week..really?..i think the govt needs to answer a few questions.

Or is Coronavirus just killing the people who are so vulnerable they would have been killed by flu this year?

This was a theory quite early on which was dismissed and labelled as crackpot, when the data strongly points towards a large degree of overlap in that population.

[isaldiri]

[redacted]

[grumbledoak]

[redacted]

[JagLover]

dmahon said:

kayc said:

So slightly off topic but interesting that Uk flu rate is 10 times lower this year than last according to PHE..and last year was low anyway..is Covid just Flu?600 cases of Flu across the whole of the UK last week..really?..i think the govt needs to answer a few questions.

Or is Coronavirus just killing the people who are so vulnerable they would have been killed by flu this year?

This was a theory quite early on which was dismissed and labelled as crackpot, when the data strongly points towards a large degree of overlap in that population.

I don't think that is a theory ever dismissed.

Even Ferguson, the cheerleader for ever more lockdown as long as it doesnt impact his love life, said that a proportion of deaths were those expected to die in the next year in any case.

[isaldiri]

[redacted]

[poo at Paul's]

[redacted]

[isaldiri]

JagLover said:

dmahon said:

kayc said:

So slightly off topic but interesting that Uk flu rate is 10 times lower this year than last according to PHE..and last year was low anyway..is Covid just Flu?600 cases of Flu across the whole of the UK last week..really?..i think the govt needs to answer a few questions.

Or is Coronavirus just killing the people who are so vulnerable they would have been killed by flu this year?

This was a theory quite early on which was dismissed and labelled as crackpot, when the data strongly points towards a large degree of overlap in that population.

I don't think that is a theory ever dismissed.

Even Ferguson, the cheerleader for ever more lockdown as long as it doesnt impact his love life, said that a proportion of deaths were those expected to die in the next year in any case.

It's not dismissed but it's certainly over stated that covid was just killing those close to dying anyway. SPI-M paper earlier estimated about 10-15% covid deaths were likely' normal'' deaths over the year. That still leaves a hell of a lot more people leftover.....

[anonymous-user]

kayc said:

So slightly off topic but interesting that Uk flu rate is 10 times lower this year than last according to PHE..and last year was low anyway..is Covid just Flu?600 cases of Flu across the whole of the UK last week..really?..i think the govt needs to answer a few questions.

Social distancing
Mask wearing
Etc
The measures taken to contain Covid will obviously reduce seasonal flu transmission

[dmahon]

JagLover said:

I don't think that is a theory ever dismissed.

Even Ferguson, the cheerleader for ever more lockdown as long as it doesnt impact his love life, said that a proportion of deaths were those expected to die in the next year in any case.

Try it on Twitter and see how it goes down.

I personally think this theory is the closest to describing what happened. Covid is just virulent enough to find all the vulnerable people and bring forward some deaths by a year at the most.

[JagLover]

isaldiri said:

It's not dismissed but it's certainly over stated that covid was just killing those close to dying anyway. SPI-M paper earlier estimated about 10-15% covid deaths were likely' normal'' deaths over the year. That still leaves a hell of a lot more people leftover.....

Interesting to see how they get to 10-15% when half of all victims have been in care homes where the average life expectancy after arrival is twenty months....

One thing I have noticed is that some studies look at the age of death and then use the average number of years left at that age to calculate years of life lost. It seems clear though that many of those dying don't have the average number of years left for their age group.