Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 8)

[turbobloke]

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

Just so long as it doesn't bhajin the door uninvited.

That would be very alarming for somebody with covid and an underlying dodgy tikka.

[Dog Star]

sunnygym said:

anonymoususer said:

Maximus_Meridius101 said:

The proper test hasn’t happened yet. If things are still looking good when we’ve had a few months of much more normal social mixing, and people head back indoors as the days shorten, later this year, then we’ll know if the measures have worked. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and the pudding isn’t even out of the metaphorical mixing bowl yet. I think there will be at least another year of excuses and back peddling by politicians, to waste time until this time next year. Then they’ll either have no excuse to keep restrictions, or a reason to do so.

Edited by Maximus_Meridius101 on Tuesday 11th May 00:59

I think this is about right
It strikes me that a disease that spreads via contact can only truly be judged to have been beaten once more normal contact has been re established
I don't know whats it's like on the tube or trains but I would think that normal (congested) use of these would be good indicators of the thing spreading

Do you not think that the majority of the public are already mixing with their friends and families and have been doing so for a while now?

From what I can see - and it's been like this for a while now - is that regardless of restrictions, stuff has been largely "back to normal" in many ways for a while now, people are working in factories and warehouses, traveling on buses and trains etc. Shops - ok you have to wear a mask, and pubs are closed. I've personally been mixing indoors, having friends round, going to friends houses, traveling with friends in car etc for ages.

Still the stats aren't going up.

Some of these scientists seem desperate to get their minute of fame or name in the papers - "oh Indian variant, third lockdown" blah blah

Of course what he could do it just keep the north locked down again, so he's seen to be doing "something".

[Welshbeef]

sAGE meeting with govt today with real concern about the Indian variant that is raging currently - result may be pushing back June 21st....

[turbobloke]

Welshbeef said:

sAGE meeting with govt today with real concern about the Indian variant that is raging currently - result may be pushing back June 21st....

Surely only local action is needed (NW) and sooner than that?

[Smollet]

Welshbeef said:

sAGE meeting with govt today with real concern about the Indian variant that is raging currently - result may be pushing back June 21st....

Raging like the Kent and SA variants did and eventually slowed to where we are now?

[irc]

What I don't understand is the panic over variants. Foreign or not. As the initial spread showed this virus is out there and will get round the world. Any variant that evolves to out compete existing variants will be here sooner or later anyway. Just like flu.

What will we do? Continue lockdown until new vaccines are made? By which time another group of variants will appear.

Big story in the media in Scotland about rising cases of the Indian variant in Glasgow. Meanwhile - stats for 12th May. No new deaths. In the week ending 11 May, 8 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were admitted to intensive care.

Meanwhile the govt is still micro-managing our lives. Time to remove restrictions. Anyone who feels at risk can take their own precautions.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covi...

[Maximus_Meridius101]

irc said:

What I don't understand is the panic over variants. Foreign or not. As the initial spread showed this virus is out there and will get round the world. Any variant that evolves to out compete existing variants will be here sooner or later anyway. Just like flu.

It’s not about the presence of the variants, as much as their ability to ultimately crash our healthcare systems, regardless of vaccination status. It’s not flu, it’s (approximately) 10 times as virulent / deadly.

irc said:

What will we do? Continue lockdown until new vaccines are made? By which time another group of variants will appear.

The purpose of lockdowns are to get the R number below 1, the duration of which is reduced if a suitable vaccine is developed and rolled out. Unfortunately this virus is a tricky little sod, that is mutating far more quickly, and in ways that may render vaccines useless. It’s like a supercharged version of every previously discovered human Coronavirus in that regard. What no one yet knows, is whether these super variants ( like the Delhi variant ) are actually that much of a big deal. That’s what we’ll find out over the winter, after we’ve had ‘normal’ levels of social interaction for a few months. What we don’t want to see are the governments going pre emptive, and reducing the rate ( or reversing at worst) the re opening of our societies. However, all we need is for everyone to do as they’re told, when they’re told, so I reckon we’ll be absolutely fine then.

[anonymous-user]

Welshbeef said:

sAGE meeting with govt today with real concern about the Indian variant that is raging currently - result may be pushing back June 21st....

Of course, we were never going to be released on June 21st. As I said on another thread, we are going to be in lockdown for the rest of the year.

I can see Boris now , "Just three more weeks, three more weeks of lockdown to flatten the curve....."

Why do you think Furlough was left until the end of September if everything was going to return to normal next month?

[bad company]

Maximus_Meridius101 said:

However, all we need is for everyone to do as they’re told, when they’re told, so I reckon we’ll be absolutely fine then.

Rather like the Germans did in the 1930’s?

[anonymous-user]

bad company said:

Maximus_Meridius101 said:

However, all we need is for everyone to do as they’re told, when they’re told, so I reckon we’ll be absolutely fine then.

Rather like the Germans did in the 1930’s?

Every time I hear some politician talk about a new bogeyman variant, or someone who works at a supermarket telling me wear a mask I immediately think of this.

[EddieSteadyGo]

Joey Deacon said:

Welshbeef said:

sAGE meeting with govt today with real concern about the Indian variant that is raging currently - result may be pushing back June 21st....

Of course, we were never going to be released on June 21st. As I said on another thread, we are going to be in lockdown for the rest of the year.

I can see Boris now , "Just three more weeks, three more weeks of lockdown to flatten the curve....."

Why do you think Furlough was left until the end of September if everything was going to return to normal next month?

I highly doubt the Indian variant is going to change the date of Stage 4 of lockdown.

Firstly, by that date we will be very close to offering a vaccine to all adults. And we know from the data, the variant doesn't escape the vaccines.

I've posted several times that we are likely to see an increase in cases once we get to Stage 4 (related to people who either didn't want the vaccine or for whom the vaccine wasn't effective). But that should then bring covid to a close in terms of being a pandemic in the UK. And there isn't much we can do about that final exit wave - it will happen either in the summer or later in the year. And it is probably best to get it out of the way in the summer rather than next winter.

[Maximus_Meridius101]

EddieSteadyGo said:

I highly doubt the Indian variant is going to change the date of Stage 4 of lockdown.

It’s too late to stop Monday’s unlocking, beer deliveries have been made, staff have been hired, premises have been prepped. It will happen. It’s June 21st that’s in doubt ( it always has been ).

EddieSteadyGo said:

And we know from the data, the variant doesn't escape the vaccines.

.

We don’t know whether this ( Indian ) variant escapes or not yet. That’s why the experts are so concerned about it.

[Smollet]

Maximus_Meridius101 said:

We don’t know whether this ( Indian ) variant escapes or not yet. That’s why the experts are so concerned about it.

They were concerned about all the variants so far so why break the habit of a lifetime. This variant will be no different

[EddieSteadyGo]

Maximus_Meridius101 said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

I highly doubt the Indian variant is going to change the date of Stage 4 of lockdown.

It’s too late to stop Monday’s unlocking, beer deliveries have been made, staff have been hired, premises have been prepped. It will happen. It’s June 21st that’s in doubt ( it always has been ).

EddieSteadyGo said:

And we know from the data, the variant doesn't escape the vaccines.

.

We don’t know whether this ( Indian ) variant escapes or not yet. That’s why the experts are so concerned about it.

The next stage of unlocking on Monday is Stage 3. I was specifically referring to Stage 4, which is the June date.

And we do have a lot of data which suggest the Indian variant (B.1.617.1) doesn't escape the vaccines (although less data on B.1.617.2 because it is so new). This link is one of many which contains a lot of the links to the reference studies.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/doc...

[anonymous-user]

Smollet said:

Maximus_Meridius101 said:

We don’t know whether this ( Indian ) variant escapes or not yet. That’s why the experts are so concerned about it.

They were concerned about all the variants so far so why break the habit of a lifetime. This variant will be no different

Exactly, all of those very boring scientists who have become rock stars due to Covid are going to want to continue the game for as long as possible.

[MOTORVATOR]

EddieSteadyGo said:

Joey Deacon said:

Welshbeef said:

sAGE meeting with govt today with real concern about the Indian variant that is raging currently - result may be pushing back June 21st....

Of course, we were never going to be released on June 21st. As I said on another thread, we are going to be in lockdown for the rest of the year.

I can see Boris now , "Just three more weeks, three more weeks of lockdown to flatten the curve....."

Why do you think Furlough was left until the end of September if everything was going to return to normal next month?

I highly doubt the Indian variant is going to change the date of Stage 4 of lockdown.

Firstly, by that date we will be very close to offering a vaccine to all adults. And we know from the data, the variant doesn't escape the vaccines.

I've posted several times that we are likely to see an increase in cases once we get to Stage 4 (related to people who either didn't want the vaccine or for whom the vaccine wasn't effective). But that should then bring covid to a close in terms of being a pandemic in the UK. And there isn't much we can do about that final exit wave - it will happen either in the summer or later in the year. And it is probably best to get it out of the way in the summer rather than next winter.

Is it the variant itself that is the problem or where it impacts?

Asian communities are known vaccine reticent, the variant was bought in via arrivals from India and the prevalence figures are showing high in areas of high Asian population. Bit of initial compounding going on within set communities that could then spread generally.

Clearly we had attained a general level of herd immunity given the NPIs in place at the moment and of course that will be strengthening as Vax increases hence allowing removal of further restrictions.

In order to create air bridges etc with the likes of Guernsey a general prevalence of 20/100k is the target but we have areas like Bolton being a lot higher.

Be interesting to see how they tackle this as it could well be a case of localised communities causing a problem for the whole country which you would want to avoid for more than one reason.

[EddieSteadyGo]

MOTORVATOR said:

...
Is it the variant itself that is the problem or where it impacts?

Asian communities are known vaccine reticent, the variant was bought in via arrivals from India and the prevalence figures are showing high in areas of high Asian population. Bit of initial compounding going on within set communities that could then spread generally.
....

I think this is probably the main issue e.g. concern about vaccine take-up, combined with a general caution about being alert to variant "threats".

In my view, I think we should consider adopting the approach in England which is being used to Wales e.g. to run down buffer stocks in order to increase the pace of 1st doses. That would seem a better approach than delaying Stage 4 which would come at a huge cost to society.

[Maximus_Meridius101]

Smollet said:

They were concerned about all the variants so far so why break the habit of a lifetime. This variant will be no different

This variant has ( at least ) 3 escape mutations. The biggest worry amongst the experts, is that it can evade antibodies and corpuscles. If it does ( and it is still very much if ) it’s a game changer. The scientists are very concerned, so now the government is very concerned, and to quote BoJo a few minutes ago, “all options are very much on the table”.

Here’s a nice little piece about the B and T cells, and how they work . If this new variant evades them, and also any antibodies they produce, we are in trouble, hence the alarm levels from government.

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-b-cells-an...

Edited by Maximus_Meridius101 on Thursday 13th May 15:34

[MOTORVATOR]

EddieSteadyGo said:

MOTORVATOR said:

...
Is it the variant itself that is the problem or where it impacts?

Asian communities are known vaccine reticent, the variant was bought in via arrivals from India and the prevalence figures are showing high in areas of high Asian population. Bit of initial compounding going on within set communities that could then spread generally.
....

I think this is probably the main issue e.g. concern about vaccine take-up, combined with a general caution about being alert to variant "threats".

In my view, I think we should consider adopting the approach in England which is being used to Wales e.g. to run down buffer stocks in order to increase the pace of 1st doses. That would seem a better approach than delaying Stage 4 which would come at a huge cost to society.

Agreed aside for the further complication of what buffer is available and maybe not suited to the intended recipient now.

Andy Burnham has requested similar however just rolling out to rest of society isn't going to solve the continual hotspots created in large swathes of vaccine reticent communities.

It may not be a very PC thing to say but if we have a problem arising within Asian communities we need to be open and honest about it and lean hard on that Asian community to solve it themselves. 100% over 50's vaccine which has already been offered to them would be a damn good start.

[EddieSteadyGo]

MOTORVATOR said:

Agreed aside for the further complication of what buffer is available and maybe not suited to the intended recipient now.

Andy Burnham has requested similar however just rolling out to rest of society isn't going to solve the continual hotspots created in large swathes of vaccine reticent communities.

It may not be a very PC thing to say but if we have a problem arising within Asian communities we need to be open and honest about it and lean hard on that Asian community to solve it themselves. 100% over 50's vaccine which has already been offered to them would be a damn good start.

Based on this tweet from Hugo Gye, which shows the take up rate for the over 50's, there does look to be an issue with the take-up with some groups in society.



https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/139284659977729...