How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)

[roger.mellie]

Biggy Stardust said:

roger.mellie said:

Agreed. It wasn’t a sure thing although leaving was much less sure.

There’s a bit too much projection going on above on my opinions. The simple summary is I’ve yet to see a quantifiable benefit leaving has achieved specifically due to leaving.

Is £82B of covid fund that we're not on the hook for sufficiently quantifiable?

No. What would the UK’s contribution have been vs what they got out?

I’m sure it would likely have been a net negative monetarily.

Has saving that money advantaged the uk vs being an EU member?

I don’t know the answers, but only idiots would think it’s wrong to ask the questions (and only scumbags would suggest those questions shouldn’t be asked).

[stongle]

roger.mellie said:

The ECB response looks better to me than the BOE one so far.

Floor is yours sir, convince me.

[vetrof]

roger.mellie said:

I don’t know the answers, but only idiots would think it’s wrong to ask the questions (and only scumbags would suggest those questions shouldn’t be asked).

Don't post in any US politics thread then.

[isaldiri]

roger.mellie said:

The ECB response looks better to me than the BOE one so far.
.

How so.....? Do explain further....

[roger.mellie]

stongle said:

roger.mellie said:

The ECB response looks better to me than the BOE one so far.

Floor is yours sir, convince me.

Why thank you! Ahem! (Clears throat).

What do you think the correct short term response is? I’d argue government borrowing to preserve jobs, even zombies jobs, is the correct short term approach. It’s preferable to keep the economy moving vs clamping down on national debt via austerity.

The ECB are currently writing blank cheques that will allow that. The BOE are not as politically decoupled but they’ll get there eventually or I’ll be proved wrong in a way I don’t want to be.

I also think Philip Lane can run rings around anyone in the BOE.

[Biggy Stardust]

roger.mellie said:

Has saving that money advantaged the uk vs being an EU member?

Saving only that money or also all the other money we save in contributions? Also saving any contribution to the EU army that was never going to happen? Also saving on the EU's central tax-raising? et bloody cetera?

[amusingduck]

stongle said:

Floor is yours sir, convince me.

isaldiri said:

How so.....? Do explain further....

When the stars align like this, there can be only one conclusion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhmLiPghYSU

[FiF]

catweasle said:

roger.mellie said:

What a load of absolute ste!

Fear of future things the EU might do when the UK had, and I do mean HAD, the authority to say no is ridiculously paranoid.

Leaving is a step into the unknown, neither you nor I know whether it'll work out for the best. I've reason to believe it won't. Either way, they'll be a rule taker rather than a rule maker when it comes to EU trading.

Qualified majority voting?


Qualified majority - https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/voti...

When the Council votes on a proposal by the Commission or the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, a qualified majority is reached if two conditions are met:

55% of member states vote in favour - in practice this means 15 out of 27
the proposal is supported by member states representing at least 65% of the total EU population

This procedure is also known as the 'double majority' rule.
55%

of the EU countries
65%

of the EU population

Not to mention the Open Method of Coordination and taking that further Enhanced Cooperation where as few as 9 member states can move forward on an initiative without the cooperation or agreement of other member states. It was designed to "overcome paralysis, where a proposal is blocked by the veto of an individual state or a small group who do not wish to be part of the initiative." A member state cannot be punished for not taking part in the changes but the only veto they possess is on the matter of foreign policy.

But still we get the sort of crap promoted by such as roger.mellie above.

[GrumpyV8]

Biggy Stardust said:

Is £82B of covid fund that we're not on the hook for sufficiently quantifiable?

Reuters reporting Macron may be reducing his stance on fishing.

[roger.mellie]

Biggy Stardust said:

roger.mellie said:

Has saving that money advantaged the uk vs being an EU member?

Saving only that money or also all the other money we save in contributions? Also saving any contribution to the EU army that was never going to happen? Also saving on the EU's central tax-raising? et bloody cetera?

Did you not bother reading the bit where I said I don’t have the answer?

I’m all ears on how you think the UK saved money by not contributing to an EU army that was never going to happen.

[isaldiri]

roger.mellie said:

Why thank you! Ahem! (Clears throat).

What do you think the correct short term response is? I’d argue government borrowing to preserve jobs, even zombies jobs, is the correct short term approach. It’s preferable to keep the economy moving vs clamping down on national debt via austerity.

The ECB are currently writing blank cheques that will allow that. The BOE are not as politically decoupled but they’ll get there eventually or I’ll be proved wrong in a way I don’t want to be.

I also think Philip Lane can run rings around anyone in the BOE.

I'll let stongle get back to you on this but suffice to say you've basically convinced yourself the ECB are better because 'they are'.

[roger.mellie]

isaldiri said:

roger.mellie said:

Why thank you! Ahem! (Clears throat).

What do you think the correct short term response is? I’d argue government borrowing to preserve jobs, even zombies jobs, is the correct short term approach. It’s preferable to keep the economy moving vs clamping down on national debt via austerity.

The ECB are currently writing blank cheques that will allow that. The BOE are not as politically decoupled but they’ll get there eventually or I’ll be proved wrong in a way I don’t want to be.

I also think Philip Lane can run rings around anyone in the BOE.

I'll let stongle get back to you on this but suffice to say you've basically convinced yourself the ECB are better because 'they are'.

You said it

Joking aside I’m not too hung up but I know it’s an area he’s going to enjoy proving his expertise on.

[isaldiri]

roger.mellie said:

You said it

Joking aside I’m not too hung up but I know it’s an area he’s going to enjoy proving his expertise on.

I suppose it depends if you simply want to hear what you want to believe and ignore anything else. Stongle, like me sometimes can get too involved in spewing out finance terms as we get far too used to using them and expect everyone else to be a similar saddo and understand what is being said. He however absolutely does know what he's talking about and if you had a real interest in things what he says wrt to financing/governance, it is definitely worth listening to whether or not you are strongly pro remain or not.

[roger.mellie]

isaldiri said:

roger.mellie said:

You said it

Joking aside I’m not too hung up but I know it’s an area he’s going to enjoy proving his expertise on.

I suppose it depends if you simply want to hear what you want to believe and ignore anything else. Stongle, like me sometimes can get too involved in spewing out finance terms as we get far too used to using them and expect everyone else to be a similar saddo and understand what is being said. He however absolutely does know what he's talking about and if you had a real interest in things what he says wrt to financing/governance, it is definitely worth listening to whether or not you are strongly pro remain or not.

I’m not comfortable talking about someone in the third person, but I genuinely do appreciate and respect his comments.

I’d have left this forum a long time ago if I couldn’t find anything to challenge my views, you’re very wrong if you think I’m looking for an echo chamber.

[Biggy Stardust]

roger.mellie said:

Biggy Stardust said:

roger.mellie said:

Has saving that money advantaged the uk vs being an EU member?

Saving only that money or also all the other money we save in contributions? Also saving any contribution to the EU army that was never going to happen? Also saving on the EU's central tax-raising? et bloody cetera?

Did you not bother reading the bit where I said I don’t have the answer?

I’m all ears on how you think the UK saved money by not contributing to an EU army that was never going to happen.

It wasn't going to happen according to Remain but it's now happening. We're saving money by not being involved.

I totally agree with your statement that you don't have any answers.

[roger.mellie]

Biggy Stardust said:

It wasn't going to happen according to Remain but it's now happening. We're saving money by not being involved.

I totally agree with your statement that you don't have any answers.

It’s happening?

Self awareness is a basic test of intelligence.

[paulrockliffe]

roger.mellie said:

Biggy Stardust said:

It wasn't going to happen according to Remain but it's now happening. We're saving money by not being involved.

I totally agree with your statement that you don't have any answers.

It’s happening?

Self awareness is a basic test of intelligence.

They're trying to head in that direction slowly without causing too much of a ruckus. Whether being out of that saves any money I'm not really convinced. Presumably it would be funded by existing military budgets, as a) the money isn't coming form anywhere else, b) no one wants two armies and c) It's a win for the EU if it has it's own army and that fact also neuters the member-states own armies.

The EU army thing is a question of sovereignty and the defense of the nation state rather than money; I don't want my taxes being paid to bomb foreign places when I don't have at least some democratic control over the exercise of that power etc etc.

[anonymous-user]

"if it's a Yes, we will say 'on we go' and if it's a No we will say 'we continue'"

or if you prefer

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie. "

[stongle]

roger.mellie said:

I’m not comfortable talking about someone in the third person, but I genuinely do appreciate and respect his comments.

I’d have left this forum a long time ago if I couldn’t find anything to challenge my views, you’re very wrong if you think I’m looking for an echo chamber.

You and isladiri, are both far too kind. Because I can be a facetious knobber.

The ECB open chequebook response, was due to a fiscal blockage. Of course it was necessary, but its a hole very difficult to get out off. Its expected the ECB will have to extend asset purchases by YE, but few think they will be done. Asset purchase / QE isn't a system to disappear government debt, but to encourage inflation and growth. At somepoint in the future the purchased bonds have to get sold back. If you are starting to look like monetary financing (central bank is the only buyer in town), you have a currency and credit problem. In fact the problem is already baked in as the ESM facilities would be dearer than say Germany can borrow at.

If Lagarde is (and has been for years) banging the fiscal drum; its because they are at the end of their firepower. To do much more, could become very damaging. I will be harsh here, but I think the last 8 years attempt to fire Eurozone inflation has depleted the ammo. They are out of road. The next steps have to be extra, extraordinary. They are already gaming the system, Greek debt being accepted back for refinancing- they are doing all they can; but if the fiscal funbus doesn't land - it won't be pretty. I just cannot see how they can unwind their balance sheet, ever.

I also think some of Lagarde comments, have been exceptionally mistimed and unfortunate (although I think she is 100% correct on fiscal step up). There have been at least 2 issues where she has spooked the market - "not the ECBs job to close the spread" sparked one of the biggest Italian Govt bond dumps in a decade (early in pandemic). The BoE are much more effective at forward guidance, but that maybe an anglo-saxon thing.

[crankedup]

GrumpyV8 said:

Biggy Stardust said:

Is £82B of covid fund that we're not on the hook for sufficiently quantifiable?

Reuters reporting Macron may be reducing his stance on fishing.

Expect he is coming under overdue pressure from Merkel & Co. Also maybe the penny has dropped at last, some fish is better than no fish.