How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)
Discussion
Shouldn’t be a laughing matter but I did https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1321189001...
Mortarboard said:
And what is the UK offering for this FTA?
M.
The UK is offering not to charge tariffs on our imports from the EU which are greater than our exports. Both sides win. M.
Why should we have to bribe the EU to let their imports in tariff free?
Edited by irc on Tuesday 27th October 22:57
Mortarboard said:
And what is the UK offering for this FTA?
M.
Access to the 5th largest economy in the world tariff free, which has a large deficit on goods in the EU member states favour.M.
Good relationships with a nuclear power with significant military and security assets that are used to protect the EU daily.
The worlds most dynamic financial services city which provides the services and money flows the EU would die without.
A land bridge for goods within the EU single market....
Why do you think the UK has little of value? The last 5 years would be bizarre behaviour by the EU if that were the case.
Mortarboard said:
Sway said:
Nope. Regular FTA - it is the EU that's asking for cake by requiring control over a third nation's sovereign territory...
The government has been exceptionally clear on this.
And what is the UK offering for this FTA?The government has been exceptionally clear on this.
M.
FTAs are good in their own right - they're ultimately a selfish thing, not an altruistic extension of favourable trading conditions to a third party.
Spain wants it's cake and to eat it.
Interesting article regarding Spain seeking a FOM deal with Gibraltar, independent of the EU/UK FTA.
https://www.ft.com/content/50fa05a3-80cc-4a7c-aa01...
15,000 people cross the Spanish border to work in Gibraltar every day, that's half of the regions Spanish citizens. The nearest Spanish town has a 40% unemployment rate currently.
It's also interesting that the EU were happy to leave the Gibraltar/Spain/UK terms outside of the FTA talks and deal with it separately, but they weren't prepared to do that for Ireland.
Interesting article regarding Spain seeking a FOM deal with Gibraltar, independent of the EU/UK FTA.
https://www.ft.com/content/50fa05a3-80cc-4a7c-aa01...
15,000 people cross the Spanish border to work in Gibraltar every day, that's half of the regions Spanish citizens. The nearest Spanish town has a 40% unemployment rate currently.
It's also interesting that the EU were happy to leave the Gibraltar/Spain/UK terms outside of the FTA talks and deal with it separately, but they weren't prepared to do that for Ireland.
Mortarboard said:
Anyone else get this level of trade access to the EU in the same manner?
Any include services?
If not, what makes you think the Uk is going to get this FTA?
Surely an FTA with china and/or the USA should be a bigger priority now the UK has left?
M.
You do know that not having an FTA is an economic disadvantage for the EU? And that signing one with the UK is infinitely easier for them than either the US or China?Any include services?
If not, what makes you think the Uk is going to get this FTA?
Surely an FTA with china and/or the USA should be a bigger priority now the UK has left?
M.
We have the second most important financial centre in the world - there is not one EU city in the top ten. We manage a vast amount of their debt and investment, and act as a gateway to the rest of the globe. Cutting off UK services would collapse the Euro overnight.
If nothing else, they would benefit from keeping relations good with us. If they attempt to restrict the UK's economy by imposing artificial barriers, we are certainly going to make use of the economic levers we can to remain competitive. "Singapore on Thames" is a threat, as much as it's a goal for some. I doubt we'd go to such extremes, but no government is going to shy away from taking action to keep the UK economy healthy.
Mortarboard said:
Anyone else get this level of trade access to the EU in the same manner?
Any include services?
If not, what makes you think the Uk is going to get this FTA?
Surely an FTA with china and/or the USA should be a bigger priority now the UK has left?
M.
Singapore includes some services, so does Canada. Any include services?
If not, what makes you think the Uk is going to get this FTA?
Surely an FTA with china and/or the USA should be a bigger priority now the UK has left?
M.
You are aware that the UK government has never requested services inclusion in the FTA? Actually, why am I asking that, you've made it absolutely clear you've zero clue what the UKG have targeted in the negotiations.
Huge downside of the EU is how bad it is at agreeing trade deals. TTIP died, and China/EU doesn't seem to be moving much. In comparison, Switzerland has landed CH/China and is working towards CH/US.
Sway said:
Mortarboard said:
Sway said:
Nope. Regular FTA - it is the EU that's asking for cake by requiring control over a third nation's sovereign territory...
The government has been exceptionally clear on this.
And what is the UK offering for this FTA?The government has been exceptionally clear on this.
M.
FTAs are good in their own right - they're ultimately a selfish thing, not an altruistic extension of favourable trading conditions to a third party.
More generally I see where you’re coming from but trade deals don’t usually (ever?) involve a country leaving a block they were a member of in the full knowledge that they’ll end up with less favourable terms so prior art doesn’t necessarily apply. Expecting a cookie cut isn’t a gimme, if it was it would likely already have been done. It should be possible to get a non zero sum deal and I’ll consider it a failure by both if they don’t.
roger.mellie said:
Sway said:
Mortarboard said:
Sway said:
Nope. Regular FTA - it is the EU that's asking for cake by requiring control over a third nation's sovereign territory...
The government has been exceptionally clear on this.
And what is the UK offering for this FTA?The government has been exceptionally clear on this.
M.
FTAs are good in their own right - they're ultimately a selfish thing, not an altruistic extension of favourable trading conditions to a third party.
More generally I see where you’re coming from but trade deals don’t usually (ever?) involve a country leaving a block they were a member of in the full knowledge that they’ll end up with less favourable terms so prior art doesn’t necessarily apply. Expecting a cookie cut isn’t a gimme, if it was it would likely already have been done. It should be possible to get a non zero sum deal and I’ll consider it a failure by both if they don’t.
The premise of the EU not seeking to engage with a straightforward FTA is a rather petulant behaviour of viewing someone leaving the club negatively. If it's such a bad thing, leaving the EU - then why create the mechanism to do so?
Sway said:
Moving to a FTA is, as the EU bang on about repeatedly, less favourable terms. They're pretty much the lowest terms genuinely friendly nations have with each other.
The premise of the EU not seeking to engage with a straightforward FTA is a rather petulant behaviour of viewing someone leaving the club negatively. If it's such a bad thing, leaving the EU - then why create the mechanism to do so?
Perhaps the EU were looking for the UK to comply with the undertakings in the Political Declaration.The premise of the EU not seeking to engage with a straightforward FTA is a rather petulant behaviour of viewing someone leaving the club negatively. If it's such a bad thing, leaving the EU - then why create the mechanism to do so?
If Covid sees the UK comparatively worse off from a financial standing, I do wonder how we'll be able to afford to push a low corp tax, low cost environment to encourage corporations to choose the UK over the EU.
The above notwithstanding the obvious mess we've made handling it compared to, for example, Germany.
Yes, we have great legal and FS here, however money and risk talks and the UK might not end up being the best value or the least volatile.
I support Brexit btw, but perhaps not if there is no deal.
The above notwithstanding the obvious mess we've made handling it compared to, for example, Germany.
Yes, we have great legal and FS here, however money and risk talks and the UK might not end up being the best value or the least volatile.
I support Brexit btw, but perhaps not if there is no deal.
768 said:
Is that what you put on your voting slip? 
No, when I voted it was to remain. I did this because I was starting a new business and felt the volatility would be bad for its health. Personally I don't agree with the political Union but do with the ability to trade with minimal friction. I see them as two distinct things.When the leave result came about I was personally pleased but concerned for my business.
Fair enough.
The reason I say it like that though is the EU bundle everything up together. IMHO you can't really support leaving without being prepared for them to throw the kitchen sink at making it look as bad as possible for us to leave right up until after we've actually left.
It's only when we get to having left, as we may just be starting to see, that there are real consequences for them and we'll know how far back they're prepared to row if at all. But by then the country has already had to show whether it was really prepared to play the leave card in full with no caveats.
The reason I say it like that though is the EU bundle everything up together. IMHO you can't really support leaving without being prepared for them to throw the kitchen sink at making it look as bad as possible for us to leave right up until after we've actually left.
It's only when we get to having left, as we may just be starting to see, that there are real consequences for them and we'll know how far back they're prepared to row if at all. But by then the country has already had to show whether it was really prepared to play the leave card in full with no caveats.
My take was that the vote was 'in' or 'out'. If you voted out, you have to accept you voted for it on any terms, including no deal. There was no qualification of the question.
The EU don't want us to leave because Germany and France don't want to be left paying for the project on their own. They also fear agitation from other doubters if we are seen to leave and prosper. Hence they're making the whole process seem as difficult as possible.
The EU don't want us to leave because Germany and France don't want to be left paying for the project on their own. They also fear agitation from other doubters if we are seen to leave and prosper. Hence they're making the whole process seem as difficult as possible.
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