How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 15)

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paulrockliffe

15,639 posts

226 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
rigga said:
PRTVR said:
Has this letter from David Frost to the EU been posted?
https://facts4eu.org/news/2020_may_beautiful_david...
So much common sense.
Excellent letter, very clear.

But Budgie says we are caving ..... who to believe? .
Yes it was posted, back in May when it was sent.

It's worth re-posting though; back in May we were ready to discuss draft legal texts. It took us binning the talks off in October to actually get the EU into the same position.

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Mortarboard said:
From my viewpoint, it looks like the UK wants/wanted a pretty comprehensive FTA.

That's something the EU hasn't done before, and for all sorts of reasons would reserve for EU members. In other words, the "middle ground" between limited FTA and full membership (or close to it, ala norway) isn't something the EU has any interest in.

M.
The EU haven't done a comprehensive FTA? eeklaugh

paulrockliffe

15,639 posts

226 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
digimeistter said:
Mortarboard said:
From my viewpoint, it looks like the UK wants/wanted a pretty comprehensive FTA.

That's something the EU hasn't done before, and for all sorts of reasons would reserve for EU members. In other words, the "middle ground" between limited FTA and full membership (or close to it, ala norway) isn't something the EU has any interest in.

M.
The EU haven't done a comprehensive FTA? eeklaugh
No, the EU have no comprehensive FTAs with anyone, they're reserved for EU members apparently. I did a quick check though just to get it straight in my head; the EU doesn't have an FTA with any of it's members. Odd isn't it.

loafer123

15,404 posts

214 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
paulrockliffe said:
digimeistter said:
Mortarboard said:
From my viewpoint, it looks like the UK wants/wanted a pretty comprehensive FTA.

That's something the EU hasn't done before, and for all sorts of reasons would reserve for EU members. In other words, the "middle ground" between limited FTA and full membership (or close to it, ala norway) isn't something the EU has any interest in.

M.
The EU haven't done a comprehensive FTA? eeklaugh
No, the EU have no comprehensive FTAs with anyone, they're reserved for EU members apparently. I did a quick check though just to get it straight in my head; the EU doesn't have an FTA with any of it's members. Odd isn't it.
I thought the EU was supposed to be really good at negotiating FTAs?

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
Has this letter from David Frost to the EU been posted?
https://facts4eu.org/news/2020_may_beautiful_david...
So much common sense.
Thank you for sharing, great letter , however I have seen no widespread publication and that was in May?

All gone deathly quiet now, and the deadline has passed, which can only mean; 'Intense negotiations' are ensuing. smile

Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Mortarboard said:
Sway said:
Then your viewpoint is completely wrong...

There are pretty comprehensive FTAs signed by the EU. CETA and Singapore spring to mind.

The UK isn't looking for "more comprehensive" than those.
CETA isn't fully free of tariffs or quotas. Border checks not removed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45633592#:~:text...

M xxx
(seeing as Borghetto prefers that!)
EEA doesn't remove tariffs or quotas completely...

That doesn't mean CETA isn't considered a comprehensive FTA.

don'tbesilly

13,900 posts

162 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Bloomberg is reporting positive news from the UK-EU future relationship discussion this afternoon as word leaks the two sides have begun working on the text of an agreement on level playing field issues, and are close to finalising a joint document covering state aid. It’s also reported both sides are closer to deciding essential aspects of how any deal will be enforced.

The soundings bode well for Thursday when negotiations will move to Brussels where attempts will be made to narrow the remaining difference sufficiently by November the 3rd when the ball will be thrown back to Boris and von der Leyen to finalise a final compromise. Macron yet to budge on fishing…

https://order-order.com/2020/10/28/negotiating-pro...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-28...

Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
My understanding was the premise of the LPF agreement was sorted a few weeks ago - it's the shift to legal texts that's a real move forward.

All for naught, if Macron doesn't keep trying to grab control of British territory.

Murph7355

37,646 posts

255 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
Bloomberg is reporting positive news from the UK-EU future relationship discussion this afternoon as word leaks the two sides have begun working on the text of an agreement on level playing field issues, and are close to finalising a joint document covering state aid. It’s also reported both sides are closer to deciding essential aspects of how any deal will be enforced.

The soundings bode well for Thursday when negotiations will move to Brussels where attempts will be made to narrow the remaining difference sufficiently by November the 3rd when the ball will be thrown back to Boris and von der Leyen to finalise a final compromise. Macron yet to budge on fishing…

https://order-order.com/2020/10/28/negotiating-pro...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-28...
Let's hope Boris re-read Frost's May letter recently.

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Tuna said:
I think you're missing a vital piece of the puzzle here. If the only deal the EU are capable of putting on the table is "Colony of the EU", then literally the only possible option for the UK is to hold our noses and go for no deal. It doesn't need "motive" other than just not wanting to get shafted.
We agree that a no deal is better than a bad deal. That isn't what I suggested, though.

My suggestion is that if Boris doesn't want a deal at all, ways will be found to claim the deal is too bad to sign up to. It is about the desire on our part to actually want a deal (presumably a 'good' one). In that respect, the EU could wrap an awesome deal in a pretty bow and deliver it to No. 10 by horsedrawn carriage with Barnier's head on a stick, and Boris would say, "sorry chaps, pink ribbons are for girls, no deal".

I hope I'm wrong, very well could be, I'm sure we'll find out in the not too distant future. If it's a reasonable deal I'll be the first to praise him for achieving it.

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
We agree that a no deal is better than a bad deal. That isn't what I suggested, though.

My suggestion is that if Boris doesn't want a deal at all, ways will be found to claim the deal is too bad to sign up to. It is about the desire on our part to actually want a deal (presumably a 'good' one). In that respect, the EU could wrap an awesome deal in a pretty bow and deliver it to No. 10 by horsedrawn carriage with Barnier's head on a stick, and Boris would say, "sorry chaps, pink ribbons are for girls, no deal".

I hope I'm wrong, very well could be, I'm sure we'll find out in the not too distant future. If it's a reasonable deal I'll be the first to praise him for achieving it.
You are, HTH

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
digimeistter said:
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
We agree that a no deal is better than a bad deal. That isn't what I suggested, though.

My suggestion is that if Boris doesn't want a deal at all, ways will be found to claim the deal is too bad to sign up to. It is about the desire on our part to actually want a deal (presumably a 'good' one). In that respect, the EU could wrap an awesome deal in a pretty bow and deliver it to No. 10 by horsedrawn carriage with Barnier's head on a stick, and Boris would say, "sorry chaps, pink ribbons are for girls, no deal".

I hope I'm wrong, very well could be, I'm sure we'll find out in the not too distant future. If it's a reasonable deal I'll be the first to praise him for achieving it.
You are, HTH
If he didn't want a deal, he wouldn't have accepted Barnier back into the talks on the assurances given not being good enough.

Mortarboard

5,516 posts

54 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Sway said:
Mortarboard said:
Sway said:
Then your viewpoint is completely wrong...

There are pretty comprehensive FTAs signed by the EU. CETA and Singapore spring to mind.

The UK isn't looking for "more comprehensive" than those.
CETA isn't fully free of tariffs or quotas. Border checks not removed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45633592#:~:text...

M xxx
(seeing as Borghetto prefers that!)
EEA doesn't remove tariffs or quotas completely...

That doesn't mean CETA isn't considered a comprehensive FTA.
I thought the UK was looking for no quotas, no tariffs?

Hence, a comprehensive FTA, more comprehensive than CETA, for example. Generally referred to as Canada+

So as a discussion, how much "free trade" compared to EU membership levels of "free trade" should the UK be looking for at a minimum in the deal?

Where would the UK like to see quotas/tariffs (in it's interest) - Fish quotas would be one potential route worth looking at, as the fish the current ex-UK fleets catch, aren't currently fish generally sought by UK fleets (so no loss if "traded" away for other benefits, but still "controlled" by quotas)

In similar circumstances, the Irish sea is a good prawn/langoustine fishing area, but when the territory is split between the UK and ROI, it becomes pretty non-viable to fish for small boats as the buggers wander about so much.

M.

Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Mortarboard said:
Sway said:
Mortarboard said:
Sway said:
Then your viewpoint is completely wrong...

There are pretty comprehensive FTAs signed by the EU. CETA and Singapore spring to mind.

The UK isn't looking for "more comprehensive" than those.
CETA isn't fully free of tariffs or quotas. Border checks not removed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45633592#:~:text...

M xxx
(seeing as Borghetto prefers that!)
EEA doesn't remove tariffs or quotas completely...

That doesn't mean CETA isn't considered a comprehensive FTA.
I thought the UK was looking for no quotas, no tariffs?

Hence, a comprehensive FTA, more comprehensive than CETA, for example. Generally referred to as Canada+

So as a discussion, how much "free trade" compared to EU membership levels of "free trade" should the UK be looking for at a minimum in the deal?

Where would the UK like to see quotas/tariffs (in it's interest) - Fish quotas would be one potential route worth looking at, as the fish the current ex-UK fleets catch, aren't currently fish generally sought by UK fleets (so no loss if "traded" away for other benefits, but still "controlled" by quotas)

In similar circumstances, the Irish sea is a good prawn/langoustine fishing area, but when the territory is split between the UK and ROI, it becomes pretty non-viable to fish for small boats as the buggers wander about so much.

M.
Everyone starts out a FTA negotiation aiming for zero quotas and tariffs.

Typically, you'll see quotas or tariffs on agri and fish - but not in the sense you're suggesting. It's not landing quota, but tariff free for the first xK tonnes before tariffs kick in. Shared fisheries mamagement also doesn't mean you stop fishing at the halfway line...

Ultimately, the point still stands that you were writing utter ste.

Mortarboard

5,516 posts

54 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Sway said:
Ultimately, the point still stands that you were writing utter ste.
Well if I'm talking "utter ste" as you put it, then the UK will have no problem negotiating a "comprehensive FTA".

Seems we'll find out in the next few months.

M.

Tuna

19,930 posts

283 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Mortarboard said:
Well if I'm talking "utter ste" as you put it, then the UK will have no problem negotiating a "comprehensive FTA".

Seems we'll find out in the next few months.

M.
I don't think your ignorance is going to sway the negotiations either way. A deal is looking increasingly likely (though you sound like the sort of person who'll convince themselves it isn't good enough), but it's always possible a single EU member could stick a spanner in the works, just as they have done with negotiations with the US and Canada in recent times... and Macron does like his fish.

Mortarboard

5,516 posts

54 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Tuna said:
(though you sound like the sort of person who'll convince themselves it isn't good enough)
My opinion matters for nothing. Either it'll be a "comprehensive FTA" or not. It'll stand out there on it's own, regardless or your opinion of my level of ignorance.

M.

amgmcqueen

3,343 posts

149 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Mortarboard said:
My opinion matters for nothing.
You're finally talking sense.

gruffalo

7,509 posts

225 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
amgmcqueen said:
Mortarboard said:
My opinion matters for nothing.
You're finally talking sense.
Harsh but oh so true!!!

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
gruffalo said:
amgmcqueen said:
Mortarboard said:
My opinion matters for nothing.
You're finally talking sense.
Harsh but oh so true!!!
Probably not to be repeated.
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