45th President of the United States, Donald Trump (Vol. 10)

45th President of the United States, Donald Trump (Vol. 10)

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paulguitar

23,104 posts

112 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Argleton said:
paulguitar said:
Argleton said:
Where did I say I actually support Trump?
I think, for now, just the betting slip and custard will do, champ.
Yes, but the difference is I don't care if people don't believe I put on that bet so I have nothing to prove. I don't support Trump however.
If you'd put a £5k bet on, you'd be posting the required custard photo of it up here like a shot.

It's a bit non-PH that you have not even tried to fake a photo of it in some way though.











eharding

13,594 posts

283 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Argleton said:
eharding said:
Should have spent the £5K on an elaborate "I Love Trump" forehead tattoo. At least he would have had something left to show for his money.

On the other hand, I suppose that if he wins he can afford to have his entire lower body inked in a lovingly detailed Trump montage, including his legs proudly showing an intricate "I'm a Trouser Trumpette" banner.
You seem to be a bit hard of reading.

Where did I say I actually support Trump?
Given your gleeful chuntering over Biden getting Trump's name confused in an interview a few days ago, call it a lucky guess.

Maybe you aren't a Trumpette, but you certainly pass the duck test.

However, the assertion is that you're lying about having placed a £5K on Trump being re-elected as President, and also you've stated that in placing the bet you're in some way exhibiting Trumpian characteristics.

Unless you can furnish us with some proof of having placed the bet, or even show us you have the slightest clue as to what the terms of such a bet would be, a fair assumption is that you have lied about it, and by association casts a shadow of doubt over everything else you have posted or will post in future.

Blackpuddin

16,408 posts

204 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Byker28i said:
Bill said:
Stratovarious said:
Paddy Power's odds on the next president:

Biden 2/5
Trump 15/8
Harris 150/1
Pence 250/1

Just in case anyone's interested, which I personally am not.
Pence has to be worth a few quid for the next few months. biggrin
I'd put money on Harris wink
Are these really odds on the NEXT president? I'm not a betting man so may have this all wrong but surely only Trump or Biden can be the NEXT president out of that lot? As such how can PP take money on the other two?
ETA just seen MX-5's comment on Trump not being the 'next' pres, not sure that will be the definition the bookies are using.

PeteinSQ

2,332 posts

209 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
A colleague of mine has a tenner on Kamala Harris. Theory being that Biden has to drop out because of the laptop stuff and so she steps in and beats trump.

eharding

13,594 posts

283 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Blackpuddin said:
Byker28i said:
Bill said:
Stratovarious said:
Paddy Power's odds on the next president:

Biden 2/5
Trump 15/8
Harris 150/1
Pence 250/1

Just in case anyone's interested, which I personally am not.
Pence has to be worth a few quid for the next few months. biggrin
I'd put money on Harris wink
Are these really odds on the NEXT president? I'm not a betting man so may have this all wrong but surely only Trump or Biden can be the NEXT president out of that lot? As such how can PP take money on the other two?
You would have to see the terms of the bet (if there is one...), but the next President of the United States will be the person who is sworn in at the inauguration on the 20th of January. That could feasibly be any one of the people PP are taking money on.

DeWar

906 posts

45 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
MX5Biologist said:
Can a degenerate gambler explain why Harris is considered more likely than Pence by the bookies?
I'm not a gambler though I am a degenerate.

Bookies' odds are not purely a reflection of estimated probabilities, though that is a substantial part of it. They want to minimise the risk of large losses and one way they do this is by shortening the odds where a lot of people have placed bets on a particular outcome. So if the bookies' objectively judged Pence and Harris in this case to have an equal chance of being the next president and priced them as such, but then lots of people placed money on Harris and few did so for Pence, Harris's odds would shorten even if there was no objective change in her chances of getting the gig. This is the reason England are always in the top 4-5 favourites to win the World Cup despite the fact that, a couple of blips aside, we've been a shower of ste in tournament football for more than 50 years.

I have no idea if that's happened here. in fact it probably hasn't because I find it hard to imagine lots of people placing money on this particular market beyond the two candidates. Then again some people will have a punt on anything.

Edited by DeWar on Wednesday 28th October 16:30

Cheeses of Nazareth

789 posts

50 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Seeing as I only dip into US politics once every 4 years , it strikes me that while all the Trump haters are moaning, it never occurred to the Democrats to just come up with a better candidate.

They picked Hillary Clinton, who has to be the closest thing to the devil incarnate ( this side of Nancy Pelosi) last time, figured they could win with her and didn't .

So this time they choose 'the next worst available' .

When Obama ran , I didn't think ' where the fk did this clown come from ' , compared to old Magic trousers , he seemed a pretty good bet,but they sat on their laurels and didn't groom a proper replacement.


So when Trump wins again, the next 4 years will be spent grooming either Pence, or Donald JR , to keep the Dems and their poison out of the White House.

They had 4 years to formulate a plan, and they spent it all grizzling, I agree it shouldn't be hard to find someone to beat Trump, but again, they have.

Biden , who has already had 3 failed attempts, is so out of it, mentally, that it is embarrassing, and yet they are still convinced he will win,

I am hopeful that when he loses, he will be able to slope away and enjoy what is left of his brain in private, its not great to see, and its even worse to see it being covered up...

Seventy

5,500 posts

137 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Argleton said:
Yes, but the difference is I don't care if people don't believe I put on that bet so I have nothing to prove. I don't support Trump however.
You are Welshbeef. AICMFP

Al Gorithum

3,661 posts

207 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Cognitive dissonance anyone? FFS.

Blackpuddin

16,408 posts

204 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
PeteinSQ said:
A colleague of mine has a tenner on Kamala Harris. Theory being that Biden has to drop out because of the laptop stuff and so she steps in and beats trump.
Can that actually happen, constitutionally?

Blackpuddin

16,408 posts

204 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
kowalski655 said:
Byker28i said:
trumps raping the national parks again.

trump is exempting Alaska's entire Tongass National Forest from the roadless rule, making more more than 9.3 million acres eligible for logging and other development. It is one of the biggest public lands rollbacks of his presidency.

President Trump will open up all 16.7 million acres of Alaska’s Tongass National Forest to logging and other forms of development, .............
How much will they be able to do before Biden reverses this in January?
Who cares (I imagine will be Trump's response), all he's going to be about for the next few days is lots of popular vote-generating fire sale giveaways. It's not his money after all. None of it is.

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Argleton said:
paulguitar said:
Argleton said:
Where did I say I actually support Trump?
I think, for now, just the betting slip and custard will do, champ.
Yes, but the difference is I don't care if people don't believe I put on that bet so I have nothing to prove. I don't support Trump however.
if Jason Plato joined in the custard game, so can you....

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Blackpuddin said:
Are these really odds on the NEXT president? I'm not a betting man so may have this all wrong but surely only Trump or Biden can be the NEXT president out of that lot? As such how can PP take money on the other two?
ETA just seen MX-5's comment on Trump not being the 'next' pres, not sure that will be the definition the bookies are using.
You become president when you are sworn in, in January.

Biden could win but not be sworn in, if that happens Harris would be the next in line and would become president when sworn in.


Tryke3

1,609 posts

93 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Byker28i said:
trumps raping the national parks again.

trump is exempting Alaska's entire Tongass National Forest from the roadless rule, making more more than 9.3 million acres eligible for logging and other development. It is one of the biggest public lands rollbacks of his presidency.

President Trump will open up all 16.7 million acres of Alaska’s Tongass National Forest to logging and other forms of development, according to a notice posted Wednesday, stripping protections that had safeguarded one of the world’s largest intact temperate rainforests for nearly two decades.

As of Thursday, it will be legal for logging companies to build roads and cut and remove timber throughout more than 9.3 million acres of forest — featuring old-growth stands of red and yellow cedar, Sitka spruce and Western hemlock. The relatively-pristine expanse is also home to plentiful salmon runs and imposing fjords. The decision, which will be published in the Federal Register, reverses protections President Bill Clinton put in place in 2001 and is one of the most sweeping public lands rollbacks Trump has enacted.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment...


For years, federal and academic scientists have identified Tongass as an ecological oasis that serves as a massive carbon sink while providing key habitat for wild Pacific salmon and trout, Sitka black-tailed deer and myriad other species. It boasts the highest density of brown bears in North America, and its trees — some of which are between 300 and 1,000 years old — absorb at least 8 percent of all the carbon stored in the entire Lower 48?s forests combined.
The f****

Bill

52,471 posts

254 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Tryke3 said:
Byker28i said:
trumps raping the national parks again.

trump is exempting Alaska's entire Tongass National Forest from the roadless rule, making more more than 9.3 million acres eligible for logging and other development. It is one of the biggest public lands rollbacks of his presidency.

President Trump will open up all 16.7 million acres of Alaska’s Tongass National Forest to logging and other forms of development, according to a notice posted Wednesday, stripping protections that had safeguarded one of the world’s largest intact temperate rainforests for nearly two decades.

As of Thursday, it will be legal for logging companies to build roads and cut and remove timber throughout more than 9.3 million acres of forest — featuring old-growth stands of red and yellow cedar, Sitka spruce and Western hemlock. The relatively-pristine expanse is also home to plentiful salmon runs and imposing fjords. The decision, which will be published in the Federal Register, reverses protections President Bill Clinton put in place in 2001 and is one of the most sweeping public lands rollbacks Trump has enacted.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment...


For years, federal and academic scientists have identified Tongass as an ecological oasis that serves as a massive carbon sink while providing key habitat for wild Pacific salmon and trout, Sitka black-tailed deer and myriad other species. It boasts the highest density of brown bears in North America, and its trees — some of which are between 300 and 1,000 years old — absorb at least 8 percent of all the carbon stored in the entire Lower 48?s forests combined.
The f****
Just mental that one man can tear up legislation on a whim.

Gameface

16,565 posts

76 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
This thread always goes this way when there's a new volume. All the non Trump supporters reappear. Unfortunately this volume has coincided with election day, so it's even more mental than normal.

The bullst £5k bet being a perfect example. rofl

hidetheelephants

23,731 posts

192 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
TTmonkey said:
No it doesn’t. A presidential pardon can be presumptive of any charge.

Full get out of jail card, for federal crimes.....
Not for Trump it isn't, given his propensity to lie like a cheap watch whenever he opens his piehole even a cursory FBI interrogation would result in him violating the terms of the pardon and winning a short ride to the big house.

Crafty_

13,248 posts

199 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Blackpuddin said:
PeteinSQ said:
A colleague of mine has a tenner on Kamala Harris. Theory being that Biden has to drop out because of the laptop stuff and so she steps in and beats trump.
Can that actually happen, constitutionally?
https://www.vox.com/21502447/trump-biden-death-what-happens

As for the Alaska thing arverage of polls has him at 50% vs 44%, so my guess is one of his cronies owns a logging or timber business... just look for a backhander appearing through company accounts in 6 months time.

Yes it is shocking that one man can do such a thing, but look on the bright side, another man could repeal the order just as easily ??

thewarlock

3,234 posts

44 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
DeWar said:
I'm not a gambler though I am a degenerate.

Bookies' odds are not purely a reflection of estimated probabilities, though that is a substantial part of it. They want to minimise the risk of large losses and one way they do this is by shortening the odds where a lot of people have placed bets on a particular outcome. So if the bookies' objectively judged Pence and Harris in this case to have an equal chance of being the next president and priced them as such, but then lots of people placed money on Harris and few did so for Pence, Harris's odds would shorten even if there was no objective change in her chances of getting the gig. This is the reason England are always in the top 4-5 favourites to win the World Cup despite the fact that, a couple of blips aside, we've been a shower of ste in tournament football for more than 50 years.

I have no idea if that's happened here. in fact it probably hasn't because I find it hard to imagine lots of people placing money on this particular market beyond the two candidates. Then again some people will have a punt on anything.

Edited by DeWar on Wednesday 28th October 16:30
This is an important point, for those treating bookies odds as likelyhood of outcome.

Bookies don't care who wins, just that they make money off the outcome. Setting odds is about risk management to ensure a the best possible outcome for their bank balance, whatever the actual outcome of the event being bet on is.

In the example given, the odds would lengthen on Pence to entice people to spend, to cover the bookmaker's losses in the event that Harris wins.

Some interesting maths, there's a whole other side to it thats not the dingy smoky old shops I remember.

tangerine_sedge

4,699 posts

217 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Cheeses of Nazareth said:
Seeing as I only dip into US politics once every 4 years , it strikes me that while all the Trump haters are moaning, it never occurred to the Democrats to just come up with a better candidate.

They picked Hillary Clinton, who has to be the closest thing to the devil incarnate ( this side of Nancy Pelosi) last time, figured they could win with her and didn't .

So this time they choose 'the next worst available' .

When Obama ran , I didn't think ' where the fk did this clown come from ' , compared to old Magic trousers , he seemed a pretty good bet,but they sat on their laurels and didn't groom a proper replacement.


So when Trump wins again, the next 4 years will be spent grooming either Pence, or Donald JR , to keep the Dems and their poison out of the White House.

They had 4 years to formulate a plan, and they spent it all grizzling, I agree it shouldn't be hard to find someone to beat Trump, but again, they have.

Biden , who has already had 3 failed attempts, is so out of it, mentally, that it is embarrassing, and yet they are still convinced he will win,

I am hopeful that when he loses, he will be able to slope away and enjoy what is left of his brain in private, its not great to see, and its even worse to see it being covered up...
This has been done to death on here, but it comes down to Biden being a palatable president for Republicans to swing to. As can be seen by the multiple republicans coming out to support him...

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