CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 6)

[HoHoHo]

Kiribati268 said:

ash73 said:

Just doing some fag-packet maths...

So far we've spent £220bn on Covid, if it goes on another 9-12 months the total will be ~£400bn.

1% increase in income tax raises roughly £5bn, similar for VAT and NI.

If they increase all three by 3% (so total 9%) for 9 years that would pay off the debt, give or take.

But that assumes people have jobs!

And I expect council tax will go up significantly to pay for local measures, too.

They might inflate their way out of some of it, I guess.

As you say, assuming people have jobs. If people don't have jobs then there's universal credit to pay. People without jobs have to spend less, so less VAT and tax paid. People without jobs don't commute, so no fuel duty paid. If businesses are closed, and there will be a fking lot in the next month or two, they don't pay employers NI, rent or business rates. If the landlord doesn't get rent, they pay less tax.

It's almost as if the government don't understand this. Furlough doesn't stop the employers rent/mortgage and other rates.

So businesses are forced to close without sufficient support, when does this become a dictatorship?

What you haven’t factored into the equation is simply in about 18-24 months there’s also going to be a huge hole in corporation tax paid from companies that have either gone (like mine and I paid £50k+ per year) or those that will have a poor year this year and barely made a profit.

The deficit will be huge and compounded by a chunk of dosh that Rishi hasn’t even thought about yet.

Edited by HoHoHo on Saturday 31st October 20:44

[Elysium]

silvagod said:

Elysium said:

This is well worth a watch. The presenter is a pathologist and the central part covers some of the odd issues with the data. In particular the lack of excess deaths associated with this second wave compared to the first:

https://youtu.be/380DLg-nAqI

Straight away, there's an omissiom. What if you want quality food and are prepared to wait? Not everything is a triangle!

Also, as you said...'No thought for anyone else. Just a desire to be right and make others as miserable as they are'. So she is wonderful and everyone else is pants?

She was making an analogy. In this case it is a triangle.

And I said nothing about her being wonderful. The content however is very interesting.

[johnboy1975]

RSTurboPaul said:

Thanks for that link.

Comments are anti- so far, but interesting comment from 'Levi de Haan', saying "Same lockdown will happen in the Netherlands.. stay strong UK. Netherlands love you."

Is this true?

Coordinated lockdowns between countries?

That is suspicious if so.

And yet we cant even get Scotland on board??

Must admit I did wonder on the timing of our lockdown, almost immediately after France and Germany. And about 1/2 days since various cabinet ministers were sent out to "big up" the tier system, all categorically denying total lockdown as the answer

I've said it before, it makes no sense. If things were growing exponentially, then *maybe* (but you only defer the problem). But as things stand ie hopefully cases starting to peak, with deaths following in a fortnight, and with deaths at this level already "baked in" due to not locking down earlier (if you were going to lockdown, a 2 week full lockdown over half term made the most sense to me, give the kids plenty of homework and they've only missed a week (make teachers available via zoom for any questions))

And 1 month instead of 2 weeks? Just FRO

Locking down and keeping schools open (one of the main transmission vectors) seems almost as if they dont want R to fall too much, which would mean they would have to relinquish their control

And their prediction of 2000 deaths a day and 9000 hospital admissions (one of the graphs towards the end) is simply not credible on the back of a falling R number and peaking cases. IMO

Edited by johnboy1975 on Saturday 31st October 20:48

Edited by johnboy1975 on Saturday 31st October 20:49

[Thin White Duke]

Is there any traction with any anti-lockdown movement? Is there any credible organisation we can throw our support behind?

I'm considering emailing my MP for all the good it will do. Nothing harsh, just a clear simple letter that outlines my disappointment in the handling of the situation and the second lockdown.

[johnboy1975]

Is there more love for Nicola Sturgeon on here tonight? Sticking to her regional approach....

[scottyp123]

johnboy1975 said:

https://youtu.be/FTJnUZoLRBU

Spitting image on point, as ever

If only that was real.

Anyone who is religious should be praying to resurect Maggie right now.

[king arthur]

johnboy1975 said:

Must admit I did wonder on the timing of our lockdown, almost immediately after France and Germany. And about 1/2 days since various cabinet ministers were sent out to "big up" the tier system, all categorically denying total lockdown as the answer

I've said it before, it makes no sense. If things were growing exponentially, then *maybe* (but you only defer the problem). But as things stand ie hopefully cases starting to peak, with deaths following in a fortnight, and with deaths at this level already "baked in" due to not locking down earlier (if you were going to lockdown, a 2 week full lockdown over half term made the most sense to me, give the kids plenty of homework and they've only missed a week (make teachers available via zoom for any questions))

And 1 month instead of 2 weeks? Just FRO

Locking down and keeping schools open (one of the main transmission vectors) seems almost as if they dont want R to fall too much, which would mean they would have to relinquish their control

And their prediction of 2000 deaths a day and 9000 hospital admissions (one of the graphs towards the end) is simply not credible on the back of a falling R number and peaking cases. IMO

Edited by johnboy1975 on Saturday 31st October 20:48

It's to be sure that cases and deaths are seen to be dropping by the end of it, so they can claim the lockdown worked.

[Cpb1702]

Surely better anyone over 60 isolate or watch what they are doing, everyone else get on with it, get to work, keep the economy going etc. Anyone below that likely got kids in school or college around them every day any way so likely to pick this thing up but highly unlikely to die based on the stats. This new lockdown will be absolutely devastating to the whole economy. I’m 44 and ready to get on with it, if I get it I fight it. But I will have a job and can feed my family etc.

[johnboy1975]

silvagod said:

Elysium said:

This is well worth a watch. The presenter is a pathologist and the central part covers some of the odd issues with the data. In particular the lack of excess deaths associated with this second wave compared to the first:

https://youtu.be/380DLg-nAqI

Straight away, there's an omissiom. What if you want quality food and are prepared to wait? Not everything is a triangle!

Also, as you said...'No thought for anyone else. Just a desire to be right and make others as miserable as they are'. So she is wonderful and everyone else is pants?

Interesting point on deaths around the 8 minute mark. People in hospital far more likely to die than the general population

Anyone got those numbers? Deaths per 100k in hospital vs deaths per 100k, general population?

[whitesocks]

Why is it that Europe seems to be suffering from the whole thing? Whilst other places are doing better?

[Vanden Saab]

Our local hospital trust covers 250,000 people, from the 1st to the 25th October there were 16 people admitted to hospital with Covid.

16... 0.006% Our town has a population of 60,000 so from that 4 people have ended up in hospital. Not dead just in hospital. Now explain to me again why we are locking down?

[scottyp123]

whitesocks said:

Why is it that Europe seems to be suffering from the whole thing? Whilst other places are doing better?

Other places have different temperate zones or climates, the virus follows these quite closely. In one of Ivor Cummins videos he went into a bit of detail about it.

[Chicken Chaser]

whitesocks said:

Why is it that Europe seems to be suffering from the whole thing? Whilst other places are doing better?

Ah that's because other places are warmer like Australia. They'll not suffer like....errr......Spain

[silvagod]

Elysium said:

silvagod said:

Elysium said:

This is well worth a watch. The presenter is a pathologist and the central part covers some of the odd issues with the data. In particular the lack of excess deaths associated with this second wave compared to the first:

https://youtu.be/380DLg-nAqI

Straight away, there's an omissiom. What if you want quality food and are prepared to wait? Not everything is a triangle!

Also, as you said...'No thought for anyone else. Just a desire to be right and make others as miserable as they are'. So she is wonderful and everyone else is pants?

She was making an analogy. In this case it is a triangle.

And I said nothing about her being wonderful. The content however is very interesting.

Analogy that missed a pertinent piece of information to simplify it.

[i4got]

silvagod said:

Elysium said:

silvagod said:

Elysium said:

This is well worth a watch. The presenter is a pathologist and the central part covers some of the odd issues with the data. In particular the lack of excess deaths associated with this second wave compared to the first:

https://youtu.be/380DLg-nAqI

Straight away, there's an omissiom. What if you want quality food and are prepared to wait? Not everything is a triangle!

Also, as you said...'No thought for anyone else. Just a desire to be right and make others as miserable as they are'. So she is wonderful and everyone else is pants?

She was making an analogy. In this case it is a triangle.

And I said nothing about her being wonderful. The content however is very interesting.

Analogy that missed a pertinent piece of information to simplify it.

Are you serious - you know she didn't come up with the Speed/Cost/Quality triangle ?. That's a standard project management model thats been around for probably 50 years or more.

[johnboy1975]

king arthur said:

It's to be sure that cases and deaths are seen to be dropping by the end of it, so they can claim the lockdown worked.

Yup. But *if* the tiers were working (more realistically, the spike was caused by schools returning, and is now flattening naturally) then why spunk more billions, and cause more misery?

Alternatively, if the tiers don't work, why persist with them after the lockdown is over?

[pocty]

whitesocks said:

Why is it that Europe seems to be suffering from the whole thing? Whilst other places are doing better?

Winter

Pocty

[silvagod]

i4got said:

silvagod said:

Elysium said:

silvagod said:

Elysium said:

This is well worth a watch. The presenter is a pathologist and the central part covers some of the odd issues with the data. In particular the lack of excess deaths associated with this second wave compared to the first:

https://youtu.be/380DLg-nAqI

Straight away, there's an omissiom. What if you want quality food and are prepared to wait? Not everything is a triangle!

Also, as you said...'No thought for anyone else. Just a desire to be right and make others as miserable as they are'. So she is wonderful and everyone else is pants?

She was making an analogy. In this case it is a triangle.

And I said nothing about her being wonderful. The content however is very interesting.

Analogy that missed a pertinent piece of information to simplify it.

Are you serious - you know she didn't come up with the Speed/Cost/Quality triangle ?. That's a standard project management model thats been around for probably 50 years or more.

The fact that project management have used it for 50 years does not make it any better. Put crap in, get crap out

[MDMetal]

Funny username said:

Why close gyms? they should be subsidised!

Yup I hate gyms but I've yet to meet anyone whose health has improved through this gigantic c*ck up. The more people loose what little exercise they got commuting or whatever, gyms etc the more unhealthy and susceptible they'll be to the virus and all the usual things. Don't worry though Boris telling us all he's a bit fat will fix all that right?

[johnboy1975]

MDMetal said:

Funny username said:

Why close gyms? they should be subsidised!

Yup I hate gyms but I've yet to meet anyone whose health has improved through this gigantic c*ck up. The more people loose what little exercise they got commuting or whatever, gyms etc the more unhealthy and susceptible they'll be to the virus and all the usual things. [B]Don't worry though Boris telling us all he's a bit fat[/] will fix all that right?

To be fair, i think he said he's lost about 24 pound

Agree with the general point though