How many have been vaccinated so far?
Discussion
bodhi said:
Mix and match is not an experiment I personally want to be part of, so if I am offered anything apart from what I've already had for my second dose, it will be refused. We've already pushed the envelope pretty far with how quickly the vaccines have been developed, tested and administered, mixing technologies is definitely my line in the sand.
Out of interest - Would you reconsider that if second AZN doses continue show ViTT at the same rate as first doses? So far it's unfortunately tracking first dose rates much more closely than one would have hoped despite the mhra statement last week seeming quite confident second doses would be less likely to show the same issue (which so far imo is not obviously supported by the current data).isaldiri said:
bodhi said:
Mix and match is not an experiment I personally want to be part of, so if I am offered anything apart from what I've already had for my second dose, it will be refused. We've already pushed the envelope pretty far with how quickly the vaccines have been developed, tested and administered, mixing technologies is definitely my line in the sand.
Out of interest - Would you reconsider that if second AZN doses continue show ViTT at the same rate as first doses? So far it's unfortunately tracking first dose rates much more closely than one would have hoped despite the mhra statement last week seeming quite confident second doses would be less likely to show the same issue (which so far imo is not obviously supported by the current data).Gov.uk info up to 26 May claims that 13.6 per million events have been recorded after the first dose was administered in the UK whereas after the second dose it's 1.3 per million.
What's happened since 26 May, approx 2 weeks ago? The above data shows it's clearly a more pronounced effect from the first dose.
First AZ dose knocked me sideways, second one was just meh - from what I've read it's the first one that will cause a problem. I'm still on the fence as to whether these vaccines really do cause clots etc over and above a general population of a similar age group but it's the same with everything covid - we're still learning day by day - it'll be years before we have solid numbers on anything covid related.
andy43 said:
First AZ dose knocked me sideways, second one was just meh - from what I've read it's the first one that will cause a problem. I'm still on the fence as to whether these vaccines really do cause clots etc over and above a general population of a similar age group but it's the same with everything covid - we're still learning day by day - it'll be years before we have solid numbers on anything covid related.
Precisely why I won’t be bothering, at least for now. A thought echoed by many of my friends and most of my workmates turbobloke said:
Given that data changes over time, obviously, and that gov.uk information may not be updated as often as it might be, whay exactly is the current position?
Gov.uk info up to 26 May claims that 13.6 per million events have been recorded after the first dose was administered in the UK whereas after the second dose it's 1.3 per million.
What's happened since 26 May, approx 2 weeks ago? The above data shows it's clearly a more pronounced effect from the first dose.
Yellow card mhra data is updated every week.Gov.uk info up to 26 May claims that 13.6 per million events have been recorded after the first dose was administered in the UK whereas after the second dose it's 1.3 per million.
What's happened since 26 May, approx 2 weeks ago? The above data shows it's clearly a more pronounced effect from the first dose.
No it doesn't clearly have a more pronounced first dose effect because of age related rollout timing. The mhra has chosen not to split up doses by age but merely ViTT rates by age so there isn't a way to easily figure out incidence by age more accurately.
At the end of march with ~18m first AZN doses, ViTT cases were at 30 (there or thereabouts). Right now we are 16m second doses and 22 ViTT cases after second doses.
It's not exactly at all clear that ViTT cases after second doses will not increase as quickly as it did over April in first doses from this point on that under 50s in particular started getting AZN jabs in large numbers as that group are now getting second doses.
V88Dicky said:
andy43 said:
First AZ dose knocked me sideways, second one was just meh - from what I've read it's the first one that will cause a problem. I'm still on the fence as to whether these vaccines really do cause clots etc over and above a general population of a similar age group but it's the same with everything covid - we're still learning day by day - it'll be years before we have solid numbers on anything covid related.
Precisely why I won’t be bothering, at least for now. A thought echoed by many of my friends and most of my workmates isaldiri said:
turbobloke said:
Given that data changes over time, obviously, and that gov.uk information may not be updated as often as it might be, whay exactly is the current position?
Gov.uk info up to 26 May claims that 13.6 per million events have been recorded after the first dose was administered in the UK whereas after the second dose it's 1.3 per million.
What's happened since 26 May, approx 2 weeks ago? The above data shows it's clearly a more pronounced effect from the first dose.
Yellow card mhra data is updated every week.Gov.uk info up to 26 May claims that 13.6 per million events have been recorded after the first dose was administered in the UK whereas after the second dose it's 1.3 per million.
What's happened since 26 May, approx 2 weeks ago? The above data shows it's clearly a more pronounced effect from the first dose.
No it doesn't clearly have a more pronounced first dose effect because of age related rollout timing. The mhra has chosen not to split up doses by age but merely ViTT rates by age so there isn't a way to easily figure out incidence by age more accurately.
At the end of march with ~18m first AZN doses, ViTT cases were at 30 (there or thereabouts). Right now we are 16m second doses and 22 ViTT cases after second doses.
It's not exactly at all clear that ViTT cases after second doses will not increase as quickly as it did over April in first doses from this point on that under 50s in particular started getting AZN jabs in large numbers as that group are now getting second doses.
spikeyhead said:
Today's jabs
First, second, total
201,607 308,038 509,645
percentage adults jabbed
78% first 55.4% second
ICU occupancy. I've tweaked the axes to fully show recent growth. I do hope that the recent growth stabilizes soon.
The numbers involved are so small I’m struggling to get too excited about them.First, second, total
201,607 308,038 509,645
percentage adults jabbed
78% first 55.4% second
ICU occupancy. I've tweaked the axes to fully show recent growth. I do hope that the recent growth stabilizes soon.
7 day positive test rate up 58.1%, hospitalisations increased 14.4%. The link has clearly been broken by vaccination. 80%+ with antibodies leaving few at risk of requiring NHS intervention given the weighting of antibodies toward the older and weaker cohorts who were prioritised for vaccination. Nothing to see here let’s crack on and open up.
djc206 said:
spikeyhead said:
Today's jabs
First, second, total
201,607 308,038 509,645
percentage adults jabbed
78% first 55.4% second
ICU occupancy. I've tweaked the axes to fully show recent growth. I do hope that the recent growth stabilizes soon.
The numbers involved are so small I’m struggling to get too excited about them.First, second, total
201,607 308,038 509,645
percentage adults jabbed
78% first 55.4% second
ICU occupancy. I've tweaked the axes to fully show recent growth. I do hope that the recent growth stabilizes soon.
7 day positive test rate up 58.1%, hospitalisations increased 14.4%. The link has clearly been broken by vaccination. 80%+ with antibodies leaving few at risk of requiring NHS intervention given the weighting of antibodies toward the older and weaker cohorts who were prioritised for vaccination. Nothing to see here let’s crack on and open up.
spikeyhead said:
I mostly agree, so long as that graph doesn't continue to accelerate upwards. I'd be happy now to just go for it and accept the consequences, but I suspect that Boris might not be quite as adventurous.
Change the scale to from zero and showing the high point of 4000 and it becomes totally innocuous. The numbers involved are tinyspikeyhead said:
djc206 said:
spikeyhead said:
Today's jabs
First, second, total
201,607 308,038 509,645
percentage adults jabbed
78% first 55.4% second
ICU occupancy. I've tweaked the axes to fully show recent growth. I do hope that the recent growth stabilizes soon.
The numbers involved are so small I’m struggling to get too excited about them.First, second, total
201,607 308,038 509,645
percentage adults jabbed
78% first 55.4% second
ICU occupancy. I've tweaked the axes to fully show recent growth. I do hope that the recent growth stabilizes soon.
7 day positive test rate up 58.1%, hospitalisations increased 14.4%. The link has clearly been broken by vaccination. 80%+ with antibodies leaving few at risk of requiring NHS intervention given the weighting of antibodies toward the older and weaker cohorts who were prioritised for vaccination. Nothing to see here let’s crack on and open up.
Lifting restrictions on the 21st will make the graph accelerate upwards even faster.
To slow down the acceleration, and eventually stop it, more vaccines, particularly 2nd doses for over 40s, need to be given. Increasing restrictions would also help, but politically won't be acceptable.
Edited by CarlosFandango11 on Friday 11th June 20:02
CarlosFandango11 said:
What's going to stop the graph accelerating upwards? If things remain as they are, it will continue exponentially upwards.
Lifting restrictions on the 21st will make the graph accelerate upwards even faster.
To slow down the acceleration, and eventually stop it, more vaccines, particularly 2nd doses for over 40s, need to be given. Increasing restrictions would also help, but politically won't be acceptable.
It's a bit simplistic, but if we allow 3 weeks for a first jab to take effect and that provides 70% efficacy, and a week for the second jab which makes things perfect, then if you didn't jab anyone else, we've jabbed enough people for the first time in the last three weeks, and enough people for the second time in the last week to reduce Rt from 1.18 to 1, once those jabs have had time to take effect. Continuing to jab people will mean that things will continue to improve, and without the Indian variant we'd probably already be in a position that all numbers would continue to fall if all restrictions were removed on the 21st.Lifting restrictions on the 21st will make the graph accelerate upwards even faster.
To slow down the acceleration, and eventually stop it, more vaccines, particularly 2nd doses for over 40s, need to be given. Increasing restrictions would also help, but politically won't be acceptable.
spikeyhead said:
CarlosFandango11 said:
What's going to stop the graph accelerating upwards? If things remain as they are, it will continue exponentially upwards.
Lifting restrictions on the 21st will make the graph accelerate upwards even faster.
To slow down the acceleration, and eventually stop it, more vaccines, particularly 2nd doses for over 40s, need to be given. Increasing restrictions would also help, but politically won't be acceptable.
It's a bit simplistic, but if we allow 3 weeks for a first jab to take effect and that provides 70% efficacy, and a week for the second jab which makes things perfect, then if you didn't jab anyone else, we've jabbed enough people for the first time in the last three weeks, and enough people for the second time in the last week to reduce Rt from 1.18 to 1, once those jabs have had time to take effect. Continuing to jab people will mean that things will continue to improve, and without the Indian variant we'd probably already be in a position that all numbers would continue to fall if all restrictions were removed on the 21st.Lifting restrictions on the 21st will make the graph accelerate upwards even faster.
To slow down the acceleration, and eventually stop it, more vaccines, particularly 2nd doses for over 40s, need to be given. Increasing restrictions would also help, but politically won't be acceptable.
I don’t think the Rt is so important, but number of deaths are. As more and more older, vulnerable people become fully vaccinated, the link between these two will weaken. I reckon that we could do with another months worth of vaccines in order to stop deaths rising.
NRS said:
CarlosFandango11 said:
What's going to stop the graph accelerating upwards? If things remain as they are, it will continue exponentially upwards.
Do you not believe in vaccines then?
Anyone had any experience of rebooking via NHS portal?
The local mass site has spaces next week for 2nd jabs, so I'm trying to bring mine forwards.
In "manage you booking" it accepts my NHS number, etc and I chose to be updated by email and text. Choose a time slot and it accepts, then it goes through to a generic vaccination page, and I have had no text or email.
Tied this twice...
The local mass site has spaces next week for 2nd jabs, so I'm trying to bring mine forwards.
In "manage you booking" it accepts my NHS number, etc and I chose to be updated by email and text. Choose a time slot and it accepts, then it goes through to a generic vaccination page, and I have had no text or email.
Tied this twice...
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