How many have been vaccinated so far?
Discussion
LaurasOtherHalf said:
purplepenguin said:
As the vaccination numbers increase, you will get some herd immunity which will reduce the infection rate in the younger age groups.
What is the big decision to be made? Surely it’s obvious now - open up businesses and get on with it?
As above, the second wave was killing people in the age group that have yet to have been vaccinated. The same thing will just happen again.What is the big decision to be made? Surely it’s obvious now - open up businesses and get on with it?
johnboy1975 said:
Does the Moderna count as both doses in 1? Creative accounting! 
If it doesn't, the 2nd doses will never tally. Which isn't a major problem i suppose as its obvious why... However, you would be fully vaccinated 21 days after the jab, so saying you've only had 1 jab (implying partial protection) is also wrong
That's jnj you are thinking about. Moderna is the same as pfizer, mRNA, 2 doses required.. If it doesn't, the 2nd doses will never tally. Which isn't a major problem i suppose as its obvious why... However, you would be fully vaccinated 21 days after the jab, so saying you've only had 1 jab (implying partial protection) is also wrongLaurasOtherHalf said:
Met with my sister yesterday and we got around to discussing this (she's a dr in the local city hospital although not on the c-19 ward), in her opinion it's the lockdown that's keeping the c-19 ward empty. The second wave was mostly people in their 20-40s who were needing oxygen and intensive care and of course they are mainly the people who have yet to have been vaccinated..
Well she might want to actually look at ICU data. Second wave (starting say Nov2020) critical care/ICU statistics most certainly were not mostly 20-40s needing intensive care but the same age group that did in spring 2020 ie those aged 55-70.isaldiri said:
Well she might want to actually look at ICU data. Second wave (starting say Nov2020) critical care/ICU statistics most certainly were not mostly 20-40s needing intensive care but the same age group that did in spring 2020 ie those aged 55-70.
Exactly. It also illustrates the danger in relying on random observations. You need data rather than anecdotes.CubanPete said:
Had my jab yesterday. In and out in about 10 minutes.
We waited a few days to see if it would open up to the 40—44s, as my OH is 44, and we are about 40 minutes away from the nearest vaccination hub, (and it did today..!).
I feel really really tired today.
Knocked me out for 24 hours as well (high fever) - never felt so rough and then perfectly fine less than a day later - even hangovers last longer these days We waited a few days to see if it would open up to the 40—44s, as my OH is 44, and we are about 40 minutes away from the nearest vaccination hub, (and it did today..!).
I feel really really tired today.
purplepenguin said:
LaurasOtherHalf said:
purplepenguin said:
vaud said:
Now open to 44 year olds.
And yet hospitality isn’t She sympathised with the decisions being made but her preference would have been to vaccinate the working population first and for the elderly and infirm to have remained shielding until we got around to them. Probably not a great vote winner however.
With the acceptance that contact infection isn't and wasn't really happening the big decision left is how we move forward with indoor hospitality etc once everyone is vaccinated.
What is the big decision to be made? Surely it’s obvious now - open up businesses and get on with it?
Bear in mind that making this decision with result in people dying.
CarlosFandango11 said:
purplepenguin said:
LaurasOtherHalf said:
purplepenguin said:
vaud said:
Now open to 44 year olds.
And yet hospitality isn’t She sympathised with the decisions being made but her preference would have been to vaccinate the working population first and for the elderly and infirm to have remained shielding until we got around to them. Probably not a great vote winner however.
With the acceptance that contact infection isn't and wasn't really happening the big decision left is how we move forward with indoor hospitality etc once everyone is vaccinated.
What is the big decision to be made? Surely it’s obvious now - open up businesses and get on with it?
Bear in mind that making this decision with result in people dying.
Delaying this decision is resulting in people dying - just not covid related
loafer123 said:
LaurasOtherHalf said:
Met with my sister yesterday and we got around to discussing this (she's a dr in the local city hospital although not on the c-19 ward), in her opinion it's the lockdown that's keeping the c-19 ward empty. The second wave was mostly people in their 20-40s who were needing oxygen and intensive care and of course they are mainly the people who have yet to have been vaccinated.
She sympathised with the decisions being made but her preference would have been to vaccinate the working population first and for the elderly and infirm to have remained shielding until we got around to them. Probably not a great vote winner however.
With the acceptance that contact infection isn't and wasn't really happening the big decision left is how we move forward with indoor hospitality etc once everyone is vaccinated.
Epidemiologically, that stance makes no sense. If the people who die are old, you don’t vaccinate the young.She sympathised with the decisions being made but her preference would have been to vaccinate the working population first and for the elderly and infirm to have remained shielding until we got around to them. Probably not a great vote winner however.
With the acceptance that contact infection isn't and wasn't really happening the big decision left is how we move forward with indoor hospitality etc once everyone is vaccinated.
Two lifelong friends (a couple) of mine were hospitalised with Covid even though they were shielding. A neighbour of my mother's was taken into hospital with a non Covid medical issue, got Covid in hospital and died. In the space of a week it went from organising his return home to organising his funeral.
CarlosFandango11 said:
Fairly obviously, the big decision is at what level of vaccination will a level of herd immunity be reached that’s acceptable to, as you say, “open up businesses and just get on with it”.
Bear in mind that making this decision with result in people dying.
It's not the dying that's now the principal issue. It's more significant that the NHS has a 4.7 million case backlog that needs ploughing through. We're only three weeks from being able to sit inside a pub, and another month from everything opening up. Even with the current restrictions, hospital admissions due to covid are only falling be 10 to 20% a week. That will continue to improve as more people get jabbed, but get worse as more is opened up. Bear in mind that making this decision with result in people dying.
I've no idea what the perfect balance is for opening things up, but I don't think we're too far away from it.
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
isaldiri said:
Well she might want to actually look at ICU data. Second wave (starting say Nov2020) critical care/ICU statistics most certainly were not mostly 20-40s needing intensive care but the same age group that did in spring 2020 ie those aged 55-70.
Exactly. It also illustrates the danger in relying on random observations. You need data rather than anecdotes.
spikeyhead said:
CarlosFandango11 said:
Fairly obviously, the big decision is at what level of vaccination will a level of herd immunity be reached that’s acceptable to, as you say, “open up businesses and just get on with it”.
Bear in mind that making this decision with result in people dying.
It's not the dying that's now the principal issue. It's more significant that the NHS has a 4.7 million case backlog that needs ploughing through. We're only three weeks from being able to sit inside a pub, and another month from everything opening up. Even with the current restrictions, hospital admissions due to covid are only falling be 10 to 20% a week. That will continue to improve as more people get jabbed, but get worse as more is opened up. Bear in mind that making this decision with result in people dying.
I've no idea what the perfect balance is for opening things up, but I don't think we're too far away from it.
Anyway, there is a nice new “breathy” voiced ad on the radio telling you that the NHS will let you know when “your” vaccine is ready for “you”
Very personal and probably signed off by the behavioural science boffins - like you are being sold a lovely new coffee or some such.
spikeyhead said:
CarlosFandango11 said:
Fairly obviously, the big decision is at what level of vaccination will a level of herd immunity be reached that’s acceptable to, as you say, “open up businesses and just get on with it”.
Bear in mind that making this decision with result in people dying.
It's not the dying that's now the principal issue. It's more significant that the NHS has a 4.7 million case backlog that needs ploughing through. We're only three weeks from being able to sit inside a pub, and another month from everything opening up. Even with the current restrictions, hospital admissions due to covid are only falling be 10 to 20% a week. That will continue to improve as more people get jabbed, but get worse as more is opened up. Bear in mind that making this decision with result in people dying.
I've no idea what the perfect balance is for opening things up, but I don't think we're too far away from it.
In general, any % being quoted without the actual numbers is misleading, as 20% can be any number between the infinitely small and the infinitely large.
The important number here is the actual daily number of admissions, which is currently at 132, down from over 4,000 at the latest peak.
LaurasOtherHalf said:
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
isaldiri said:
Well she might want to actually look at ICU data. Second wave (starting say Nov2020) critical care/ICU statistics most certainly were not mostly 20-40s needing intensive care but the same age group that did in spring 2020 ie those aged 55-70.
Exactly. It also illustrates the danger in relying on random observations. You need data rather than anecdotes.out of the people I know doctors have proven by far the worst group of people to be willing to actually look at the data that may or may not underpin whatever they believe about the virus and their general approach has largely been driven by thel principle of saving wanting to save every life rather than making a judgement on the overall tradeoffs required to do so.
youngsyr said:
spikeyhead said:
CarlosFandango11 said:
Fairly obviously, the big decision is at what level of vaccination will a level of herd immunity be reached that’s acceptable to, as you say, “open up businesses and just get on with it”.
Bear in mind that making this decision with result in people dying.
It's not the dying that's now the principal issue. It's more significant that the NHS has a 4.7 million case backlog that needs ploughing through. We're only three weeks from being able to sit inside a pub, and another month from everything opening up. Even with the current restrictions, hospital admissions due to covid are only falling be 10 to 20% a week. That will continue to improve as more people get jabbed, but get worse as more is opened up. Bear in mind that making this decision with result in people dying.
I've no idea what the perfect balance is for opening things up, but I don't think we're too far away from it.
In general, any % being quoted without the actual numbers is misleading, as 20% can be any number between the infinitely small and the infinitely large.
The important number here is the actual daily number of admissions, which is currently at 132, down from over 4,000 at the latest peak.
spikeyhead said:
What's misleading about it? Current admission rates are low, which is good, and they're falling, which is better, but it's only just falling which is an indication that restrictions can't be relaxed too much more until we jab a few more people. That seems fairly straightforward to me.
"only just falling".If it were rising by 10-20% per week, it would be referred to as "rising exponentially" or "doubling" and the line that would be trotted out would be "when things double they get very big very quickly", yet when it's in the other direction it's "only just falling"?
spikeyhead said:
youngsyr said:
spikeyhead said:
CarlosFandango11 said:
Fairly obviously, the big decision is at what level of vaccination will a level of herd immunity be reached that’s acceptable to, as you say, “open up businesses and just get on with it”.
Bear in mind that making this decision with result in people dying.
It's not the dying that's now the principal issue. It's more significant that the NHS has a 4.7 million case backlog that needs ploughing through. We're only three weeks from being able to sit inside a pub, and another month from everything opening up. Even with the current restrictions, hospital admissions due to covid are only falling be 10 to 20% a week. That will continue to improve as more people get jabbed, but get worse as more is opened up. Bear in mind that making this decision with result in people dying.
I've no idea what the perfect balance is for opening things up, but I don't think we're too far away from it.
In general, any % being quoted without the actual numbers is misleading, as 20% can be any number between the infinitely small and the infinitely large.
The important number here is the actual daily number of admissions, which is currently at 132, down from over 4,000 at the latest peak.
As Covid gets scarcer in the community (less than 2K positives per day now) and as more people are protected by vaccination so the probability of you coming into contact with someone who has Covid decreases to the point of being negligible - even if there are always a few cases & hospital admissions around
isaldiri said:
LaurasOtherHalf said:
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
isaldiri said:
Well she might want to actually look at ICU data. Second wave (starting say Nov2020) critical care/ICU statistics most certainly were not mostly 20-40s needing intensive care but the same age group that did in spring 2020 ie those aged 55-70.
Exactly. It also illustrates the danger in relying on random observations. You need data rather than anecdotes.out of the people I know doctors have proven by far the worst group of people to be willing to actually look at the data that may or may not underpin whatever they believe about the virus and their general approach has largely been driven by thel principle of saving wanting to save every life rather than making a judgement on the overall tradeoffs required to do so.
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