How many have been vaccinated so far?
Discussion
768 said:
CarlosFandango11 said:
139,712 first doses and 123,555 second doses yesterday. 263,267 in total and 2.46 m for the week - the lowest weekly total since the beginning of March.
Is the weekly total down in part because of that IT issue one day last week?sim72 said:
768 said:
CarlosFandango11 said:
139,712 first doses and 123,555 second doses yesterday. 263,267 in total and 2.46 m for the week - the lowest weekly total since the beginning of March.
Is the weekly total down in part because of that IT issue one day last week?https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-new
CarlosFandango11 said:
The missing England data from Monday was included in Tuesday’s figures.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-new
Ah yeah cheers, I see it is now. Missed that as Monday is usually the lowest reporting day anyway, so Tuesday didn't stand out as much.https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-new
sim72 said:
Northernboy said:
What's behind the lower numbers that we're seeing recently for daily vaccinations? Is it any one thing?
While I'm in favour of getting back to normal now, it'd be better if we were getting through the unvaccinated population a lot more quickly than we currently are.
84% of the population have had a first jab. When you take into account those that don't want it for any reason, the simple reason may be that we are running out of people to jab. Obviously the 2nd ones will continue at reasonable levels for a while yetWhile I'm in favour of getting back to normal now, it'd be better if we were getting through the unvaccinated population a lot more quickly than we currently are.
For second jabs, we have pretty much now caught up with the change from 12 to 8 weeks gap. Which means the rate of 2nd jabs now only needs to match the rate of 1st jabs from 8 weeks ago, which it pretty much is.
HappyMidget said:
Hospitalisations and deaths are not seeing the same correlation though. Which are the real key metrics now
Are they? Increasing cases and the constant banging on about how transmissible the new variant is seems to be all the rage despite those 'key metrics' staying at low levels for weeks. If one judges by actions, it's pretty clear cases are the key metric to the government.isaldiri said:
Are they? Increasing cases and the constant banging on about how transmissible the new variant is seems to be all the rage despite those 'key metrics' staying at low levels for weeks. If one judges by actions, it's pretty clear cases are the key metric to the government.
I'm sounding like a broken record but I suspect we will see the current number of cases continue to build through until mid July. Which will be around the review date for deciding whether to proceed with the new date for stage 4. By that point, it won't be good enough to say the link between cases and hospitalisation has been largely broken - hospitalisation will still be increasing, albeit at a slower rate. So if that is the only argument the government have made by that point, the obvious action would be to delay stage 4 (again). Instead they have to make the argument that the exit wave is unavoidable. That's hard, because critics will say the 2nd doses haven't yet been completed, we haven't vaccinated children etc etc. So they will say that is a premature (and reckless) conclusion.
To get any traction, it is going to need a concerted effort from Whitty and Vallance. I wonder if they will do it.
EddieSteadyGo said:
I'm sounding like a broken record but I suspect we will see the current number of cases continue to build through until mid July. Which will be around the review date for deciding whether to proceed with the new date for stage 4. By that point, it won't be good enough to say the link between cases and hospitalisation has been largely broken - hospitalisation will still be increasing, albeit at a slower rate. So if that is the only argument the government have made by that point, the obvious action would be to delay stage 4 (again).
Instead they have to make the argument that the exit wave is unavoidable. That's hard, because critics will say the 2nd doses haven't yet been completed, we haven't vaccinated children etc etc. So they will say that is a premature (and reckless) conclusion.
To get any traction, it is going to need a concerted effort from Whitty and Vallance. I wonder if they will do it.
Or, covid is everywhere but nearly everyone is asymptomatic due to vaccines, and cases/hospitalisations will plateau soon once any remaining vulnerable have been infected. Wishful thinking maybe.Instead they have to make the argument that the exit wave is unavoidable. That's hard, because critics will say the 2nd doses haven't yet been completed, we haven't vaccinated children etc etc. So they will say that is a premature (and reckless) conclusion.
To get any traction, it is going to need a concerted effort from Whitty and Vallance. I wonder if they will do it.
soofsayer said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
I'm sounding like a broken record but I suspect we will see the current number of cases continue to build through until mid July. Which will be around the review date for deciding whether to proceed with the new date for stage 4. By that point, it won't be good enough to say the link between cases and hospitalisation has been largely broken - hospitalisation will still be increasing, albeit at a slower rate. So if that is the only argument the government have made by that point, the obvious action would be to delay stage 4 (again).
Instead they have to make the argument that the exit wave is unavoidable. That's hard, because critics will say the 2nd doses haven't yet been completed, we haven't vaccinated children etc etc. So they will say that is a premature (and reckless) conclusion.
To get any traction, it is going to need a concerted effort from Whitty and Vallance. I wonder if they will do it.
Or, covid is everywhere but nearly everyone is asymptomatic due to vaccines, and cases/hospitalisations will plateau soon once any remaining vulnerable have been infected. Wishful thinking maybe.Instead they have to make the argument that the exit wave is unavoidable. That's hard, because critics will say the 2nd doses haven't yet been completed, we haven't vaccinated children etc etc. So they will say that is a premature (and reckless) conclusion.
To get any traction, it is going to need a concerted effort from Whitty and Vallance. I wonder if they will do it.
If you have a rate of somewhere around 20k new infections per day (or choose whichever higher rate you prefer) that is going to take a while to get through. Hence there is plenty of headroom for higher infection rates once we get into stage 4.
Edited by EddieSteadyGo on Monday 28th June 21:27
EddieSteadyGo said:
soofsayer said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
I'm sounding like a broken record but I suspect we will see the current number of cases continue to build through until mid July. Which will be around the review date for deciding whether to proceed with the new date for stage 4. By that point, it won't be good enough to say the link between cases and hospitalisation has been largely broken - hospitalisation will still be increasing, albeit at a slower rate. So if that is the only argument the government have made by that point, the obvious action would be to delay stage 4 (again).
Instead they have to make the argument that the exit wave is unavoidable. That's hard, because critics will say the 2nd doses haven't yet been completed, we haven't vaccinated children etc etc. So they will say that is a premature (and reckless) conclusion.
To get any traction, it is going to need a concerted effort from Whitty and Vallance. I wonder if they will do it.
Or, covid is everywhere but nearly everyone is asymptomatic due to vaccines, and cases/hospitalisations will plateau soon once any remaining vulnerable have been infected. Wishful thinking maybe.Instead they have to make the argument that the exit wave is unavoidable. That's hard, because critics will say the 2nd doses haven't yet been completed, we haven't vaccinated children etc etc. So they will say that is a premature (and reckless) conclusion.
To get any traction, it is going to need a concerted effort from Whitty and Vallance. I wonder if they will do it.
If you have a rate of somewhere around 20k new infections per day (or choose whichever higher rate you prefer) that is going to take a while to get through.
soofsayer said:
Out of those 10 million or so, I seriously doubt there are many in the vulnerable categories left in that number, and out of the vulnerable nowhere near all get ill or hospitalised.
That's a different point. You were saying cases and hospitalisations would plateau soon. I was just saying why they wouldn't. Doesn't change the fact that it can't be avoided, but whether we get it mostly out of the way now or push it back until the autumn/winter, will depend largely I think on whether Whitty and Vallance put their weight behind the argument that an exit wave is unavoidable.
If they stay quiet, I don't think politically the government will be able to do anything other than delay stage 4 again.
EddieSteadyGo said:
I'm sounding like a broken record but I suspect we will see the current number of cases continue to build through until mid July. Which will be around the review date for deciding whether to proceed with the new date for stage 4. By that point, it won't be good enough to say the link between cases and hospitalisation has been largely broken - hospitalisation will still be increasing, albeit at a slower rate. So if that is the only argument the government have made by that point, the obvious action would be to delay stage 4 (again).
Instead they have to make the argument that the exit wave is unavoidable. That's hard, because critics will say the 2nd doses haven't yet been completed, we haven't vaccinated children etc etc. So they will say that is a premature (and reckless) conclusion.
To get any traction, it is going to need a concerted effort from Whitty and Vallance. I wonder if they will do it.
I'd say we are going to see a fairly rapid increase in prevalence in the next three weeks which is going to give the hospital admissions a rigorous workout. Assuming those hold at reasonable levels it won't need much effort.Instead they have to make the argument that the exit wave is unavoidable. That's hard, because critics will say the 2nd doses haven't yet been completed, we haven't vaccinated children etc etc. So they will say that is a premature (and reckless) conclusion.
To get any traction, it is going to need a concerted effort from Whitty and Vallance. I wonder if they will do it.
In fact we will likely see record levels of prevalence hit given we aren't bringing any interventions back in and I doubt it will be peaking and dropping off that quick either.
The bit I think the majority are missing though is that we will not be welcome anywhere else in the world until they catch up vaccine wise.
EddieSteadyGo said:
I'm sounding like a broken record but I suspect we will see the current number of cases continue to build through until mid July. Which will be around the review date for deciding whether to proceed with the new date for stage 4. By that point, it won't be good enough to say the link between cases and hospitalisation has been largely broken - hospitalisation will still be increasing, albeit at a slower rate. So if that is the only argument the government have made by that point, the obvious action would be to delay stage 4 (again).
Instead they have to make the argument that the exit wave is unavoidable. That's hard, because critics will say the 2nd doses haven't yet been completed, we haven't vaccinated children etc etc. So they will say that is a premature (and reckless) conclusion.
To get any traction, it is going to need a concerted effort from Whitty and Vallance. I wonder if they will do it.
Whilst I do agree that to justify unlocking on the 19th the government have to pivot from cases to hospitalisations and deaths, it really isn't at all obvious how they'll manage this and take the electorate with them in terms of trust and faith. Instead they have to make the argument that the exit wave is unavoidable. That's hard, because critics will say the 2nd doses haven't yet been completed, we haven't vaccinated children etc etc. So they will say that is a premature (and reckless) conclusion.
To get any traction, it is going to need a concerted effort from Whitty and Vallance. I wonder if they will do it.
One of the core issues they need to address is the point and purpose of test and trace post unlocking and in particular no symptoms regular testing for certain groups (kids, healthcare, teachers, anyone that fancies it etc). Put simply in the mind of common man/women if cases don't matter why does testing for cases on an industrialised level matter.?
I can see why the government care about testing to show them the general background level of covid and provide a general direction of travel about what is likely to show up hospitalisations wise a week or two later. But this also needs compliance from the population groups they're interested in to maintain the data harvesting. IMHO to break cases as the metric in the mind of the general population government need to do something bold (and in eyes of many advisor's I'm sure risky) and probably scrap no symptom testing including LFD based test programmes as requirement to do stuff and for kids to go to school.
You just can't make a well reasoned argument that cases don't matter whilst trying to test everything and everyone that moves.
Alternatively trying to build a case that unlocking is fine because everyone that wanted to be vaccinated has had the opportunity to book struggles against the you must have both doses to protect against delta narrative that Government have been pushing for last month. Moreover leaves then open to criticism that unlocking should wait until seconds have been completed and a period immunity has built, which of course if first dose programme reaches an effective conclusion in mid July takes us into October when winter pressures and save the NHS become the rallying cry.
MOTORVATOR said:
The bit I think the majority are missing though is that we will not be welcome anywhere else in the world until they catch up vaccine wise.
I've been saying exactly this. As you say, I think the infection numbers are going to shoot up massively by hospitalisations/deaths won't see anywhere as much of an increase. All very well for us but the chances of a lot of Europe being keen to let us in I think is slim, possibly unless we price double-jabbed status. The problem with this, wrt holidays, is that people like me want to bring their dirty unvaccinated kids along with them and I can't imagine the Spaniards et al will be keen! EddieSteadyGo said:
soofsayer said:
Out of those 10 million or so, I seriously doubt there are many in the vulnerable categories left in that number, and out of the vulnerable nowhere near all get ill or hospitalised.
That's a different point. You were saying cases and hospitalisations would plateau soon. I was just saying why they wouldn't. Doesn't change the fact that it can't be avoided, but whether we get it mostly out of the way now or push it back until the autumn/winter, will depend largely I think on whether Whitty and Vallance put their weight behind the argument that an exit wave is unavoidable.
If they stay quiet, I don't think politically the government will be able to do anything other than delay stage 4 again.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Think that is somewhat wishful thinking, at least by the review date for stage 4. Firstly, let's say we get to 90% of adults vaccinated. That means ~5m adults not vaccinated. Add in some teenagers and other younger children who haven't yet been infected and you probably have around 10 million who are still susceptible to infection, some of whom will be genuinely vulnerable.
If you have a rate of somewhere around 20k new infections per day (or choose whichever higher rate you prefer) that is going to take a while to get through. Hence there is plenty of headroom for higher infection rates once we get into stage 4.
If 90% are vaccinated we will have a level of heard immunity yes we could see numbers being infected in the younger non vaccinated groups but its not and has not been a problem within itself. The problem was that it would then usually spared the older groups if the vaccines this is not going to happen. If you have a rate of somewhere around 20k new infections per day (or choose whichever higher rate you prefer) that is going to take a while to get through. Hence there is plenty of headroom for higher infection rates once we get into stage 4.
Edited by EddieSteadyGo on Monday 28th June 21:27
b0rk said:
Whilst I do agree that to justify unlocking on the 19th the government have to pivot from cases to hospitalisations and deaths, it really isn't at all obvious how they'll manage this and take the electorate with them in terms of trust and faith.
One of the core issues they need to address is the point and purpose of test and trace post unlocking and in particular no symptoms regular testing for certain groups (kids, healthcare, teachers, anyone that fancies it etc). Put simply in the mind of common man/women if cases don't matter why does testing for cases on an industrialised level matter.?
I can see why the government care about testing to show them the general background level of covid and provide a general direction of travel about what is likely to show up hospitalisations wise a week or two later. But this also needs compliance from the population groups they're interested in to maintain the data harvesting. IMHO to break cases as the metric in the mind of the general population government need to do something bold (and in eyes of many advisor's I'm sure risky) and probably scrap no symptom testing including LFD based test programmes as requirement to do stuff and for kids to go to school.
You just can't make a well reasoned argument that cases don't matter whilst trying to test everything and everyone that moves.
Alternatively trying to build a case that unlocking is fine because everyone that wanted to be vaccinated has had the opportunity to book struggles against the you must have both doses to protect against delta narrative that Government have been pushing for last month. Moreover leaves then open to criticism that unlocking should wait until seconds have been completed and a period immunity has built, which of course if first dose programme reaches an effective conclusion in mid July takes us into October when winter pressures and save the NHS become the rallying cry.
Exactly! One of the core issues they need to address is the point and purpose of test and trace post unlocking and in particular no symptoms regular testing for certain groups (kids, healthcare, teachers, anyone that fancies it etc). Put simply in the mind of common man/women if cases don't matter why does testing for cases on an industrialised level matter.?
I can see why the government care about testing to show them the general background level of covid and provide a general direction of travel about what is likely to show up hospitalisations wise a week or two later. But this also needs compliance from the population groups they're interested in to maintain the data harvesting. IMHO to break cases as the metric in the mind of the general population government need to do something bold (and in eyes of many advisor's I'm sure risky) and probably scrap no symptom testing including LFD based test programmes as requirement to do stuff and for kids to go to school.
You just can't make a well reasoned argument that cases don't matter whilst trying to test everything and everyone that moves.
Alternatively trying to build a case that unlocking is fine because everyone that wanted to be vaccinated has had the opportunity to book struggles against the you must have both doses to protect against delta narrative that Government have been pushing for last month. Moreover leaves then open to criticism that unlocking should wait until seconds have been completed and a period immunity has built, which of course if first dose programme reaches an effective conclusion in mid July takes us into October when winter pressures and save the NHS become the rallying cry.
And so unless Whitty and Vallance, who I think are still pretty well respected and trusted by most people, start making public arguments on this matter soon, it will be too late and an extension will be the only realistic political option.
It doesn't matter if Javid and Sunak's instincts are all gun-ho for July. The arguments need to be carefully constructed well before then, and they need to address the nuances you refer to.
Considering the massive push to get people to get vaccinated, its a bit surprising at how few vaccination places there are.
I live in Dursley/Stroud, and the nearest vax is in either Bath or centre of bristol, both a 40 min drive away!!
Think i will pass...
You would think they would have drive through locations all over the place...
I live in Dursley/Stroud, and the nearest vax is in either Bath or centre of bristol, both a 40 min drive away!!
Think i will pass...
You would think they would have drive through locations all over the place...
Not-The-Messiah said:
If 90% are vaccinated we will have a level of heard immunity yes we could see numbers being infected in the younger non vaccinated groups but its not and has not been a problem within itself. The problem was that it would then usually spared the older groups if the vaccines this is not going to happen.
Wales is already at 90% adults 1st dose vaccinated. So we can probably look to see where they get to by mid July in terms of the rate of change to get an indication for the rest of the UK will be in early August. But we also need to take account that stage 4 will see another step up in terms of close mixing, as all social distancing etc would be removed.
V8 Stang said:
Considering the massive push to get people to get vaccinated, its a bit surprising at how few vaccination places there are.
I live in Dursley/Stroud, and the nearest vax is in either Bath or centre of bristol, both a 40 min drive away!!
Think i will pass...
You would think they would have drive through locations all over the place...
You'll probably get an invite from the primary care network your GP surgery is affiliated to, just make sure you have your mobile number registered at your GP surgery.I live in Dursley/Stroud, and the nearest vax is in either Bath or centre of bristol, both a 40 min drive away!!
Think i will pass...
You would think they would have drive through locations all over the place...
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