Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread

[NoddyonNitrous]

Being a 'case' who has to isolate at home for 10 days, and all the work and other implications of it, is quite an important facet of the impact on the economy.

[silentbrown]

chrisgtx said:

Masks working well in Scotland then!
Although it would be interesting to see hospital admission.

School returns will means there's a big boost in testing, which may partly explain the spike.

[silentbrown]

Smollet said:

Ashfordian said:

Muncher said:

Another ONS antibody prevalence update released today.

They have revised downwards their projections for previous months, (down 0.6% on their last modelled figure for 12 July), but again the we are up to 94.2% of adults in England having antibodies as at 26 July.

Do you know if their model takes into account waning immunity from the vaccine?

I'm curious to know what data exists to show waning immunity in the vaccinated.

Tim Spector talking about that in his weekly video.

[the-photographer]

silentbrown said:

Tim Spector talking about that in his weekly video.

Thanks, I think the most important point was the one in the chart below, infection immunity is decreasing, so even with more vaccine coverage and anti-bodies at 93% we are going to have "loads" of case into this autumn.

Has this been more widely reported in the press?

[the-photographer]

NoddyonNitrous said:

Scottish trends not looking good.

Good daily tracker here https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavir...

[Muncher]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58293249

There's a very significant increase in the amount of antibody testing taking place from tuesday. Everyone who tests PCR positive will be given the option of carrying out two antibody tests, one at the point of the positive pcr test and one 28 days later. Up to 8,000 tests per day.

I presume these will be reported as part of the ONS survey which will see a big increase from a sample size of ~30,000 over 2 weeks to ~140,000.

[Ashfordian]

Muncher said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58293249

There's a very significant increase in the amount of antibody testing taking place from tuesday. Everyone who tests PCR positive will be given the option of carrying out two antibody tests, one at the point of the positive pcr test and one 28 days later. Up to 8,000 tests per day.

I presume these will be reported as part of the ONS survey which will see a big increase from a sample size of ~30,000 over 2 weeks to ~140,000.

This feels like it is an attempt to get more information on why 'break-through' infections are occurring and allowing them to compare post-infection. I'm not sure simply measuring antibodies is the best way do this as the vaccine creates antibodies for 1 protein whereas the virus has 28 proteins.

[the-photographer]

Ashfordian said:

This feels like it is an attempt to get more information on why 'break-through' infections are occurring and allowing them to compare post-infection. I'm not sure simply measuring antibodies is the best way do this as the vaccine creates antibodies for 1 protein whereas the virus has 28 proteins.

Be nice is valneva is ready this year

[Elysium]

[Terminator X]

^^^ informative and tells a very interesting story!

TX.

[V88Dicky]

Terminator X said:

^^^ informative and tells a very interesting story!

TX.

Indeed.

The same cohort of people who were succumbing to the virus last year, are sadly the same this year….

[Boringvolvodriver]

V88Dicky said:

Terminator X said:

^^^ informative and tells a very interesting story!

TX.

Indeed.

The same cohort of people who were succumbing to the virus last year, are sadly the same this year….

And yet some people would appear to be surprised at this.

Hold the front page

Older people are more likely to die than younger people

[spikeyhead]

Boringvolvodriver said:

V88Dicky said:

Terminator X said:

^^^ informative and tells a very interesting story!

TX.

Indeed.

The same cohort of people who were succumbing to the virus last year, are sadly the same this year….

And yet some people would appear to be surprised at this.

Hold the front page

Older people are more likely to die than younger people

Indeed, but in far fewer numbers.

[Boringvolvodriver]

spikeyhead said:

Boringvolvodriver said:

V88Dicky said:

Terminator X said:

^^^ informative and tells a very interesting story!

TX.

Indeed.

The same cohort of people who were succumbing to the virus last year, are sadly the same this year….

And yet some people would appear to be surprised at this.

Hold the front page

Older people are more likely to die than younger people

Indeed, but in far fewer numbers.

Which is good news and would appear to justify the vaccine for the old and vulnerable

[silentbrown]

V88Dicky said:

Terminator X said:

^^^ informative and tells a very interesting story!

TX.

The same cohort of people who were succumbing to the virus last year, are sadly the same this year….

What's clearly different is the percentage of hospital admissions in each age band. Under 65's accounting for the majority of admissions in the current wave.

[scenario8]

silentbrown said:

V88Dicky said:

Terminator X said:

^^^ informative and tells a very interesting story!

TX.

The same cohort of people who were succumbing to the virus last year, are sadly the same this year….

What's clearly different is the percentage of hospital admissions in each age band. Under 65's accounting for the majority of admissions in the current wave.

“How far ‘under 65’?” might be a nice question to have answered. Sadly that data appears to be unavailable.

[Ashfordian]

silentbrown said:

V88Dicky said:

Terminator X said:

^^^ informative and tells a very interesting story!

TX.

The same cohort of people who were succumbing to the virus last year, are sadly the same this year….

What's clearly different is the percentage of hospital admissions in each age band. Under 65's accounting for the majority of admissions in the current wave.

I think it tells you more that they use different age bands for the +ve cases and +ve hospital admissions. They are definitely trying to push a narrative by doing this.

[Boringvolvodriver]

scenario8 said:

silentbrown said:

V88Dicky said:

Terminator X said:

^^^ informative and tells a very interesting story!

TX.

The same cohort of people who were succumbing to the virus last year, are sadly the same this year….

What's clearly different is the percentage of hospital admissions in each age band. Under 65's accounting for the majority of admissions in the current wave.

“How far ‘under 65’?” might be a nice question to have answered. Sadly that data appears to be unavailable.

Not to mention the other factors which play a big part - what other co morbidities did they have have and did they actually give admitted with covid issues or was it for something else and then tested positive?

Still a better position to be in than before though.

[the-photographer]

scenario8 said:

“How far ‘under 65’?” might be a nice question to have answered. Sadly that data appears to be unavailable.

For Scotland

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavir...

[Elysium]

Quick update as I have not looked at numbers for some time:

1. Cases per 100k Tests have pretty much held flat since 'freedom day'. The Case Fatality Rate is also holding steady at an average of 35 deaths per 10,000 cases over the last month. In January we saw 262 deaths per 10,000 cases. That's an 87% reduction in deaths:



2. Hospital admissions are similar. In the last 28 days an average of 282 in every 10,000 cases ended up in hospital. That means over 97% of people with COVID did not require hospital treatment. In January 888 in every 10,000 were admitted. Thats a 68% reduction in severe illness



3. This graph shows Cases per 100k Tests have held 3 times lower than the winter peak, despite lifting of all restrictions. Admissions and deaths are shown on a separate Y axis:



4. This version zooms in on the more recent period and 'rebases' deaths so the curves can be more easily compared. Its clear that there is still a direct relationship between Cases per 100k tests, Admissions and Deaths. It is simply that the proportion of people suffering severe illness has very significantly reduced:

Edited by Elysium on Monday 6th September 21:11