Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread
Discussion
768 said:
I'm not sure that's a sudden spike. Just looks like part of the rise in cases we've been seeing for a month.
Scotland has definitely had a sudden spike and I think it could be contributed to the football on Friday night (how people caught it from behind their sofas I’ll never know):
I do know of a few clusters who travelled to London for football and stayed together for a few days. Lots of schools have shut up shop early too.
If contact traced, these people are getting PCR tests so that’ll catch a lot of asymptomatic folks who previously wouldn’t know if they had covid.
The last few days have been the highest number of positive cases by about 15% (3k yesterday and previous peak was about 2.5k), but also highest number of tests by a similar amount:
JeffreyD said:
It was deamed feasible to shut down entire sectors of the economy for months on end.
Why not feasible to say "no holidays and if returning for work 2 week in confinement*?
There seems little doubt that if we had shut down to India a few weeks open we'd be fully open now.
God this makes my head hurt...NOWhy not feasible to say "no holidays and if returning for work 2 week in confinement*?
There seems little doubt that if we had shut down to India a few weeks open we'd be fully open now.
No, closing the border would have made hardly any difference. The simple fact that people seem so afraid to say, is that Indians are very social and live in close proximity to one another (is that raciest? I don't think so...it's just the way they are which is a nice thing unless Covid). So it's fairly obvious that the coughs and sniffles are more likely to spread fairly quickly in these areas. Which, it is.
404 Page not found said:
God this makes my head hurt...NO
No, closing the border would have made hardly any difference. The simple fact that people seem so afraid to say, is that Indians are very social and live in close proximity to one another (is that raciest? I don't think so...it's just the way they are which is a nice thing unless Covid). So it's fairly obvious that the coughs and sniffles are more likely to spread fairly quickly in these areas. Which, it is.
Even more reason to minimise movement from India, just as we did from Bangladesh and Pakistan.No, closing the border would have made hardly any difference. The simple fact that people seem so afraid to say, is that Indians are very social and live in close proximity to one another (is that raciest? I don't think so...it's just the way they are which is a nice thing unless Covid). So it's fairly obvious that the coughs and sniffles are more likely to spread fairly quickly in these areas. Which, it is.
I'm not asking for the government to be clairvoyant, just do the same to India as they did to those two countries.
I have never said we could have stopped it. We could have minimised it to give the vaccine more of a head start. Every day and week counts.
Focus on the most important thing first: opening up the internal market and getting as close to day to day normality as possible.
But looking at the news today - is it any wonder these
s can't get the basics right?simoid said:
Terminator X said:
Interesting to see the goalposts shifting over time though, started with "protect the NHS" and now it is "cases".
TX.
Well, we’re not locked down and there’s loads of cases. So clearly it’s not (just?) cases that are the goalposts.TX.
The 'plan' now seems to be test, test, test, test, test... so they can find more cases and then use them to justify restrictions.
A cynic might wonder if the plan is to find as many as possible to justify the 'emergency' that lets them inject experimental technology that would not be allowed if it wasn't an 'emergency'... (And it's hardly an emergency if the past three months have seen lower than average deaths overall and an NHS with, ooh, perhaps one Covid patient per hospital?)
RSTurboPaul said:
Other than having restrictions on who we can see, what venues can open, and how we can live our lives?
The 'plan' now seems to be test, test, test, test, test... so they can find more cases and then use them to justify restrictions.
A cynic might wonder if the plan is to find as many as possible to justify the 'emergency' that lets them inject experimental technology that would not be allowed if it wasn't an 'emergency'... (And it's hardly an emergency if the past three months have seen lower than average deaths overall and an NHS with, ooh, perhaps one Covid patient per hospital?)
Maybe that's because of 'injecting experimental technology'?The 'plan' now seems to be test, test, test, test, test... so they can find more cases and then use them to justify restrictions.
A cynic might wonder if the plan is to find as many as possible to justify the 'emergency' that lets them inject experimental technology that would not be allowed if it wasn't an 'emergency'... (And it's hardly an emergency if the past three months have seen lower than average deaths overall and an NHS with, ooh, perhaps one Covid patient per hospital?)
At this point, even if vaccines work very effectively, we should see more vaccinated deaths than unvaccinated ones.
There are three reasons for this:
1. Older people are much more likely to die from COVID
2. Vaccination reduces risk of death, but vaccinated elderly people are still more likely to die than unvaccinated young people
3. We (rightly) started our programme amongst the elderly, so the %age of fully vaccinated elderly is higher than that of fully vaccinated young people.
This shows an even 10% infection rate across all age groups with 50% of those identified as cases and 80% protection against death from the vaccines.
There are three reasons for this:
1. Older people are much more likely to die from COVID
2. Vaccination reduces risk of death, but vaccinated elderly people are still more likely to die than unvaccinated young people
3. We (rightly) started our programme amongst the elderly, so the %age of fully vaccinated elderly is higher than that of fully vaccinated young people.
This shows an even 10% infection rate across all age groups with 50% of those identified as cases and 80% protection against death from the vaccines.
RSTurboPaul said:
Other than having restrictions on who we can see, what venues can open, and how we can live our lives?
The 'plan' now seems to be test, test, test, test, test... so they can find more cases and then use them to justify restrictions.
A cynic might wonder if the plan is to find as many as possible to justify the 'emergency' that lets them inject experimental technology that would not be allowed if it wasn't an 'emergency'... (And it's hardly an emergency if the past three months have seen lower than average deaths overall and an NHS with, ooh, perhaps one Covid patient per hospital?)
At this present moment, there’s very little that I’d want to do that I cannot. There are obviously limitations but we’re certainly light years ahead of where we were with similar case numbers last time, ie locked down in the house, schools shut, non essential hospital stuff cancelled, etc.The 'plan' now seems to be test, test, test, test, test... so they can find more cases and then use them to justify restrictions.
A cynic might wonder if the plan is to find as many as possible to justify the 'emergency' that lets them inject experimental technology that would not be allowed if it wasn't an 'emergency'... (And it's hardly an emergency if the past three months have seen lower than average deaths overall and an NHS with, ooh, perhaps one Covid patient per hospital?)
You might actually be one of my mates who said, without a hint of irony as we sat in our full golf club clubhouse watching the football the other day with a table full of lager in front of us, “when is Sturgeon gonna start lifting restrictions eh?” I had to chortle
Thank f
k for everyone getting the vaccine as it’s a choice between vaccination or lockdown. PS I assume you won’t be complaining about not being able to fly anywhere in those “experimental technology” jet engined plane things
Malta says Britons without two jabs have to quarantine on arrival - after UK puts country on green travel list
The Maltese government says anyone arriving from the UK from 30 June will need to present a COVID vaccine certificate.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-malta-announce...
Europe next!
The Maltese government says anyone arriving from the UK from 30 June will need to present a COVID vaccine certificate.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-malta-announce...
Europe next!
simoid said:
Thank fk for everyone getting the vaccine as it’s a choice between vaccination or lockdown.
PS I assume you won’t be complaining about not being able to fly anywhere in those “experimental technology” jet engined plane things
You appear to have fallen for the false dichotomy that the Government have presented.k for everyone getting the vaccine as it’s a choice between vaccination or lockdown. PS I assume you won’t be complaining about not being able to fly anywhere in those “experimental technology” jet engined plane things
It's not 'suffer lockdown or get jabbed'. There are a plethora of other options available, including the complete removal of all restrictions with immediate effect.
If we take your plane analogy, those taking the vaccines are jumping on non-stop flight to Australia when it's only been tested on short-hop flights between London and Cornwall.
768 said:
I'm not sure that's a sudden spike. Just looks like part of the rise in cases we've been seeing for a month.
It is definitely a recent sudden spike:June 13 =29 new cases
(Gradual rise over a week here)
June 20 = 80 cases
June 21 = 134 cases (+67% overnight)
(Rise then continues at around previous rate)
June 22 = 145
June 23 = 153
I heard today that they have started house-to-house surge testing, so that may be part of the cause of the step. Without knowing the timings, it is difficult to distinguish cause and effect.
RSTurboPaul said:
You appear to have fallen for the false dichotomy that the Government have presented.
It's not 'suffer lockdown or get jabbed'. There are a plethora of other options available, including the complete removal of all restrictions with immediate effect.
If we take your plane analogy, those taking the vaccines are jumping on non-stop flight to Australia when it's only been tested on short-hop flights between London and Cornwall.
Oh, do you think if nobody was vaccinated then we could possibly not have any restrictions? I can’t see that going well. Sort of like what happened last March but without the lockdown.It's not 'suffer lockdown or get jabbed'. There are a plethora of other options available, including the complete removal of all restrictions with immediate effect.
If we take your plane analogy, those taking the vaccines are jumping on non-stop flight to Australia when it's only been tested on short-hop flights between London and Cornwall.
Perhaps we can just agree that all technology is experimental and some of us have differing viewpoints about how much we trust the developers and regulation authorities.
768 said:
You can't point at a single day's increase in positive tests and call it a spike in cases. If it really were that you wouldn't get "Rise then continues at around previous rate" also known as regression to the mean.
Just don't tell me it was a Monday.
Just don't tell me it was a Monday.
Yes, it was, but as you'll see, there was no usual dip over sat/sun, if anything they were even higher than the preceding week. I'm wondering if it is university students returning home. Wakefield doesn't have a university, so the 15-19 and 20-24 age bands had been comparatively quiet until recently (relative to neighbouring university cities Leeds, Bradford etc). 9-14 Rates are now increasing, I might speculate these are younger siblings of returning students.
(Heat map end date is June 21)
I'm not on a crusade to prove anything, just genuinely curious what might be driving such a sudden change locally. Obviously it is Delta-variant, but in other areas it has been slower than this.
Bit of an update:
1. Tests are inching upwards, but the growth in cases is much faster. Still roughly tracking a 13 day doubling since the 17th May. If this continues we should expect around 36k cases per day by 7th July:
2. When you correct for testing volume there is some sign that growth is a little slower, but more importantly the Case Fatality Rate continues to fall. About 1 in 1,000 over the last 7 days:
3. Growth in admissions is very slow. As a result the Case admissions rate is also reducing:
4. This shows cases per 100k tests, admissions and deaths overlaid with a lag between each. Its very clear that the recent cases are not resulting in severe illness and death to the same extent we have seen previously:
5. These last two graphs show the rate of growth for cases and admissions. Cases are growing as quickly as they were on the 7th June. Admissions are showing signs of peaking, but this data is laggy so it is too early to say for sure.
Overall, this looks good to me for lifting of final restrictions on the 19th July. But in order to get there we are going to have to learn to accept that an exit wave of cases is inevitable. The question is if we are finally ready to confront this head on.
1. Tests are inching upwards, but the growth in cases is much faster. Still roughly tracking a 13 day doubling since the 17th May. If this continues we should expect around 36k cases per day by 7th July:
2. When you correct for testing volume there is some sign that growth is a little slower, but more importantly the Case Fatality Rate continues to fall. About 1 in 1,000 over the last 7 days:
3. Growth in admissions is very slow. As a result the Case admissions rate is also reducing:
4. This shows cases per 100k tests, admissions and deaths overlaid with a lag between each. Its very clear that the recent cases are not resulting in severe illness and death to the same extent we have seen previously:
5. These last two graphs show the rate of growth for cases and admissions. Cases are growing as quickly as they were on the 7th June. Admissions are showing signs of peaking, but this data is laggy so it is too early to say for sure.
Overall, this looks good to me for lifting of final restrictions on the 19th July. But in order to get there we are going to have to learn to accept that an exit wave of cases is inevitable. The question is if we are finally ready to confront this head on.
Two questions I was asked today, and unsure of the answer for. Does anybody know the answers?
1) Test results are analysed by residential address, are they not, so if I test positive when tested when away from home for a period, does it show on my home area's statistics?
2) Do the area cases/100k statistics only always use residents as the denominator? I am staying in an area where the holidaymakers swell the numbers to 2-3x the resident numbers, if so the headline case rate will actually be much lower than published.
1) Test results are analysed by residential address, are they not, so if I test positive when tested when away from home for a period, does it show on my home area's statistics?
2) Do the area cases/100k statistics only always use residents as the denominator? I am staying in an area where the holidaymakers swell the numbers to 2-3x the resident numbers, if so the headline case rate will actually be much lower than published.
The result recorded by area is for the postcode you gave when filling out the test form and population numbers come from the ONS. IIRC population numbers are ultimately calculated by the ONS from Census data with adjustments for assumed population changes.
If you tested whilst on holiday or away from home for work your result would go against whatever address you declared as your residence, this might inflate numbers at home or away depending on where you where when tested.
If you tested whilst on holiday or away from home for work your result would go against whatever address you declared as your residence, this might inflate numbers at home or away depending on where you where when tested.
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