Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread
Discussion
Terminator X said:
I have said all along that I suspect Covid is mainly caught when "trapped" in a room with one or more persons that have Covid and for hours at a time^. It certainly isn't caught whilst walking past someone in the street masked or un-masked. Pretty much f
k all data released to say yay or nay though 
^Hospitals, care homes, schools, offices ...
TX.
And the televisionk all data released to say yay or nay though ^Hospitals, care homes, schools, offices ...
TX.
eltawater said:
Zad said:
It is possible that this is just a quirk of the imprecise language being used. Specifically that of those people admitted to hospital, they simply hadn't had a test prior to being admitted and hence the first test was done on being admitted, the result being 24 hours later. Their first positive test was in hospital, but they didn't actually catch it there. There needs to be clarity, to distinguish between those who already had the virus on entry to the hospital, and those who acquired it after admission.
That's neither here nor there.The government narrative would like you to believe that all these people are being rushed by paramedics spluttering and dying into hospital where they can finally be hooked up to to an oxygen tank. Whereas the reality is that it's likely that a sizeable proportion are just being admitted for a routine procedure etc and are returning positive results against the standard screening tests they perform at the hospital during their stay.
RSTurboPaul said:
eltawater said:
Zad said:
It is possible that this is just a quirk of the imprecise language being used. Specifically that of those people admitted to hospital, they simply hadn't had a test prior to being admitted and hence the first test was done on being admitted, the result being 24 hours later. Their first positive test was in hospital, but they didn't actually catch it there. There needs to be clarity, to distinguish between those who already had the virus on entry to the hospital, and those who acquired it after admission.
That's neither here nor there.The government narrative would like you to believe that all these people are being rushed by paramedics spluttering and dying into hospital where they can finally be hooked up to to an oxygen tank. Whereas the reality is that it's likely that a sizeable proportion are just being admitted for a routine procedure etc and are returning positive results against the standard screening tests they perform at the hospital during their stay.
RapidRob said:
RSTurboPaul said:
eltawater said:
Zad said:
It is possible that this is just a quirk of the imprecise language being used. Specifically that of those people admitted to hospital, they simply hadn't had a test prior to being admitted and hence the first test was done on being admitted, the result being 24 hours later. Their first positive test was in hospital, but they didn't actually catch it there. There needs to be clarity, to distinguish between those who already had the virus on entry to the hospital, and those who acquired it after admission.
That's neither here nor there.The government narrative would like you to believe that all these people are being rushed by paramedics spluttering and dying into hospital where they can finally be hooked up to to an oxygen tank. Whereas the reality is that it's likely that a sizeable proportion are just being admitted for a routine procedure etc and are returning positive results against the standard screening tests they perform at the hospital during their stay.
Elysium said:
It's quite annoying that NHS record the age ranges in those ranges. I was looking for hospitalisations by age yesterday and found that massive age range of 18-64 makes it really hard to get a good idea of what is really happening throughout the age ranges.With the number of cases steadily falling I thought it might be a good time for an update:
1. This shows tests and associated cases. You can see the sudden turnaround as cases move away from the prior 13 day doubling trend and begin to fall. The shape of the peak is surprisingly similar to the last one. But that was attributed to lockdown which clearly isn't the cause now:
This second graph zooms in on a more recent period. Testing is falling, but cases are falling faster:
2. This graph shows cases per 100k tests, which gives a smaller / softer peak and moved off the 13 day doubling line much earlier. The interesting thing here is the consistenly low case fatality rate. Averaging 1 in 1,000 over the last 14 days:
3. This shows hospital admissions. Absolute numbers of admissions are increasing, but there are signs this is about to peak following what has happened with cases. The key point here is that the proportion of cases resulting in an admission has steadied out at around 2 in 100 since mid June.
4. This shows cases, admissions and deaths with 7 and 14 day lags. Admissions and deaths are now moving in proportion with cases at the rates noted above (2% for admissions and 0.1% for deaths). You can see that the proportion of cases resulting in severe illness was MUCH higher in the winter wave :
5. Finally, this shows the 7 day rolling total of cases, which gives a nice smooth peak. The orange bars are the growth rate. The peak is where this hits zero and we can see that the slowdown in cases is now easing off:
1. This shows tests and associated cases. You can see the sudden turnaround as cases move away from the prior 13 day doubling trend and begin to fall. The shape of the peak is surprisingly similar to the last one. But that was attributed to lockdown which clearly isn't the cause now:
This second graph zooms in on a more recent period. Testing is falling, but cases are falling faster:
2. This graph shows cases per 100k tests, which gives a smaller / softer peak and moved off the 13 day doubling line much earlier. The interesting thing here is the consistenly low case fatality rate. Averaging 1 in 1,000 over the last 14 days:
3. This shows hospital admissions. Absolute numbers of admissions are increasing, but there are signs this is about to peak following what has happened with cases. The key point here is that the proportion of cases resulting in an admission has steadied out at around 2 in 100 since mid June.
4. This shows cases, admissions and deaths with 7 and 14 day lags. Admissions and deaths are now moving in proportion with cases at the rates noted above (2% for admissions and 0.1% for deaths). You can see that the proportion of cases resulting in severe illness was MUCH higher in the winter wave :
5. Finally, this shows the 7 day rolling total of cases, which gives a nice smooth peak. The orange bars are the growth rate. The peak is where this hits zero and we can see that the slowdown in cases is now easing off:
Elysium said:
COVID is still here, we have just been through an outbreak with peak cases 75% as high as the winter. But admissions were more than 4 times lower and deaths were more than 10 times lower.
It’s nowhere near as dangerous as it was.
So vaccine efficacy or Delta variant less dangerous (or a third option that those susceptible to the virus have already succumbed in the prior outbreaks).... It’s nowhere near as dangerous as it was.
Antibody levels up to 93.6% of the adult population as at 12 July, which trends to about 96% today.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
Jinx said:
Elysium said:
COVID is still here, we have just been through an outbreak with peak cases 75% as high as the winter. But admissions were more than 4 times lower and deaths were more than 10 times lower.
It’s nowhere near as dangerous as it was.
So vaccine efficacy or Delta variant less dangerous (or a third option that those susceptible to the virus have already succumbed in the prior outbreaks).... It’s nowhere near as dangerous as it was.
Muncher said:
Antibody levels up to 93.6% of the adult population as at 12 July, which trends to about 96% today.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
That is really quite incredible. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
The thing is that the existence of antibodies does not mean we have sterilising immunity.
On current data its very likely that this means 96% of people have an immune system that is capable of fighting this. Mostly with mild illness.
Elysium said:
That is really quite incredible.
The thing is that the existence of antibodies does not mean we have sterilising immunity.
On current data its very likely that this means 96% of people have an immune system that is capable of fighting this. Mostly with mild illness.
I think you are right on both counts. I have it at the moment (seems less bad than a mild cold), my wife gave it to me (she is double jabbed) and both our children have it.The thing is that the existence of antibodies does not mean we have sterilising immunity.
On current data its very likely that this means 96% of people have an immune system that is capable of fighting this. Mostly with mild illness.
Muncher said:
Elysium said:
That is really quite incredible.
The thing is that the existence of antibodies does not mean we have sterilising immunity.
On current data its very likely that this means 96% of people have an immune system that is capable of fighting this. Mostly with mild illness.
I think you are right on both counts. I have it at the moment (seems less bad than a mild cold), my wife gave it to me (she is double jabbed) and both our children have it.The thing is that the existence of antibodies does not mean we have sterilising immunity.
On current data its very likely that this means 96% of people have an immune system that is capable of fighting this. Mostly with mild illness.
https://twitter.com/gerdosi/status/141977264531538...
Rather like those who are unvaccinated, but have mild disease in childhood.
For some reason, the case rate seems to have flat-lined over the last 5-7 days. Oddly, it seems to be happening pretty much all over, on a post-code level as much as the national level. Possibly a slight upwards trend in this city area, with some post-codes that were consistently negative now showing a small but steady increase. I was expecting a tapering-off as in previous waves. Maybe this is the effect of unlocking and reduced mask wearing?
Zad said:
For some reason, the case rate seems to have flat-lined over the last 5-7 days. Oddly, it seems to be happening pretty much all over, on a post-code level as much as the national level. Possibly a slight upwards trend in this city area, with some post-codes that were consistently negative now showing a small but steady increase. I was expecting a tapering-off as in previous waves. Maybe this is the effect of unlocking and reduced mask wearing?
Too early to tell - the downward trend post last peak was quite spiky - technical term 
- with a weaker gradient overall, so a slight levelling is actually better than the spikes we had before. I have yet to see any evidence of masks in the data (well no positive effect in the data) so I wouldn't hold my breath this time around either.
panholio said:
Cases seem to be flatlining/ slightly climbing.
Unlocking?
Unlocking, I suspect. I think the July peak was largely driven through transmission in schools, combined with a lax "we're nearly freeeee" attitude. Unlocking?
Testing's dropped right off, I think largely because pupils aren't testing twice a week
panholio said:
Cases seem to be flatlining/ slightly climbing.
Unlocking?
Lots of testing for holidays?
Seems odd I thought we'd continue to drop.
The earlier high case rate were concentrated mainly in the North East so lots of areas have not yet had the exit wave that the NE had.Unlocking?
Lots of testing for holidays?
Seems odd I thought we'd continue to drop.
Looking at the national number hides lots of nuances eg Lincoln at the top of the chart looks to be past its exit wave peak.
It does more likely now that the delay in removing restrictions is going to seed the autumn/winter wave
The delay looks an even more stupid decision trying to gain a few more vaccinated when the vaccine is now down to 60% (from 90%) in preventing transmission. I suspect this tranmission number will be revised down again as time goes on.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff