The EU v UK vaccine tussle

[Oilchange]

They could always drag out the many thousand unused vaccines they have lying around because they're frickin hopeless!

[CraigyMc]

[Earthdweller]

Varadkar summed it up perfectly the other day

“ we are doing the best we can, but unfortunately we have NO CONTROL over the supply of vaccines”

( paraphrased by me )

Which as the first priority of any national govt is to protect its citizens can only be a massive fail

[RichFN2]

crankedup said:

London424 said:

It’s starting to get messy over there

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/23/eu-t...

Quite a few countries have stopped declining and are stuck or increasing. France, Italy, Czech to name a few.

Each Country has a prime responsibility for the health and well being of its population. Looks like the EC is overstepping itself again. Will they ever learn, seems not which gives me cheer that we left. I do feel sympathy for those people stuck with the nutters in charge.Instructions to open borders whilst a Global pandemic is prevalent and vaccine rollout is abysmal, unreal.

Edited by crankedup on Tuesday 23 February 19:49

Without wishing to derail this thread but I do wonder if countries like Hungary that have an anti EU undertone in recent years might now push for leaving the EU. They were spitting feathers over the migrant crisis but the EU vaccine situation, having to turn to Russia & China for a better response and now being told to open their borders with a global pandemic on might be enough to get the momentum going.

[Murph7355]

RichFN2 said:

Without wishing to derail this thread but I do wonder if countries like Hungary that have an anti EU undertone in recent years might now push for leaving the EU. They were spitting feathers over the migrant crisis but the EU vaccine situation, having to turn to Russia & China for a better response and now being told to open their borders with a global pandemic on might be enough to get the momentum going.

I don't see it. 5bn Euros goes a long way.

[CraigyMc]

Murph7355 said:

RichFN2 said:

Without wishing to derail this thread but I do wonder if countries like Hungary that have an anti EU undertone in recent years might now push for leaving the EU. They were spitting feathers over the migrant crisis but the EU vaccine situation, having to turn to Russia & China for a better response and now being told to open their borders with a global pandemic on might be enough to get the momentum going.

I don't see it. 5bn Euros goes a long way.

It wasn't that long ago the reports were about Hungary and Poland being ejected from the EU (or at least from EU funding) for not "respecting rule of law" when they work together against the other 25, they can pretty much hold up most things, including budgets.

[vaud]

CraigyMc said:

It wasn't that long ago the reports were about Hungary and Poland being ejected from the EU (or at least from EU funding) for not "respecting rule of law" when they work together against the other 25, they can pretty much hold up most things, including budgets.

While Germany broke the bloc buy of vaccines and sought to secure some for themselves. And wasn’t punished.

Rank hypocrisy.

[CraigyMc]

vaud said:

CraigyMc said:

It wasn't that long ago the reports were about Hungary and Poland being ejected from the EU (or at least from EU funding) for not "respecting rule of law" when they work together against the other 25, they can pretty much hold up most things, including budgets.

While Germany broke the bloc buy of vaccines and sought to secure some for themselves. And wasn’t punished.

Rank hypocrisy.

They'd probably argue that Germany buying vaccines outside the EU system is just Germany protecting its citizens, whereas the "rule of law" the EU is unhappy about Poland and Hungary breaking is about freedom of press and stuff like that.

They aren't the same thing, but they are both "going outside of EU norms". Germany's position appears to be "my ball, my rules" here.

[Earthdweller]

Reports today that there’s been a massive spike in holiday bookings to the sun

Looking at the figures of vaccines and the rising numbers in Spain, Italy, France I really can’t see them happening at all

Vaccinated or not will travel be allowed to high infection areas ?

[CraigyMc]

Earthdweller said:

Reports today that there’s been a massive spike in holiday bookings to the sun

Looking at the figures of vaccines and the rising numbers in Spain, Italy, France I really can’t see them happening at all

Vaccinated or not will travel be allowed to high infection areas ?

I don't see problems with people being allowed to leave.

Coming back in may be a different matter if somewhere like Alicante gets on the red list. The el cheapo sun and sangria package deal might come with a UK hotel stay before you're able to go home.

[Wombat3]

Merkel now saying they are into a 3rd wave

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-02...


This will get messy, poor buggers

[NextSlidePlease]

jsf said:

paulrockliffe said:

Apparently the AZ delivery to the EU in the second quarter will only be 50% of the expected amount. Prediction is 130m of the 300m doses anticipated in Q1 and Q2

Fireworks or still too embarrassed after last time?

There is fk all they can do about it. This is not like making soup.

I was reading a report earlier today which basically criticised the EU for their stty contract, vague and no enforcement if AZ didn't deliver. In contrast the UK contract was bulletproof with a much more robust protection of supplies, particularly from UK factories.

The UK by throwing a st ton of money at AZ production owned a peice of their ass, where the EU contract said " pretty please can we have some vaccines"

Or something along those lines.

I think this is one big reason the EU supplies have been hugely affected and the UK supply less so.

Edit: Here it is

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-difference...

[CraigyMc]

Wombat3 said:

Merkel now saying they are into a 3rd wave

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-02...


This will get messy, poor buggers

The trend on the continent is doubleplus ungood.

The UK's bad news rate has been much higher but the trend here is okay. Over there, not so much.

The incidence of C-19 per country today (new per day, per million population)

• Germany 60
• UK 157

It's been higher in the UK all this year, and by a significant margin. Even with the vaccination program and lockdowns, the UK is experiencing more deaths than Germany is today... but the rates here are getting better and the rates there are getting worse.

Neither are comfortable. The primary thing the UK has going for it in regards C19 is the vaccination program.

Edited by CraigyMc on Tuesday 23 February 21:42

[Flooble]

CraigyMc said:

The trend on the continent is doubleplus ungood.

The UK's bad news rate has been much higher but the trend here is okay. Over there, not so much.

The incidence of C-19 per country today:

• Germany 60
• UK 157

It's been higher in the UK all this year, and by a significant margin. Even with the vaccination program and lockdowns, the UK is experiencing more deaths than Germany is today... but the rates here are getting better and the rates there are getting worse.

Neither are comfortable. The primary thing the UK has going for it in regards C19 is the vaccination program.

Although in all seriousness, not wanting to get into a Deltona rant but there really are only four weeks to go until the date that was the peak last year. If the pattern is the same this year Germany may not actually get to the rate the UK is currently at before the seasonal decline.

I'm aware that South Africa is "the other way round" and didn't show a similar summer slowdown but it's also warm most of the year there, the seasons aren't really like Northern Europe.

I think there is reason to be optimistic that Germany (and the others) won't be hit too hard after all.

[Wombat3]

CraigyMc said:

Wombat3 said:

Merkel now saying they are into a 3rd wave

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-02...


This will get messy, poor buggers

The trend on the continent is doubleplus ungood.

The UK's bad news rate has been much higher but the trend here is okay. Over there, not so much.

The incidence of C-19 per country today:

• Germany 60
• UK 157

It's been higher in the UK all this year, and by a significant margin. Even with the vaccination program and lockdowns, the UK is experiencing more deaths than Germany is today... but the rates here are getting better and the rates there are getting worse.

Neither are comfortable. The primary thing the UK has going for it in regards C19 is the vaccination program.

Its all about the direction of travel. It will also go much faster in Europe than before because its the new variant (unless they really keep the hatches battened down). I would not be planning on crossing the Channel any time soon.

[NextSlidePlease]

Has the "UK variant" got a foothold in any European country yet? It tore us a new one and the trend charts don't look good for many EU countries currently.

I just hope they don't see the same spike we did after Christmas. We all need to exit this mess together.

[Wombat3]

Flooble said:

CraigyMc said:

The trend on the continent is doubleplus ungood.

The UK's bad news rate has been much higher but the trend here is okay. Over there, not so much.

The incidence of C-19 per country today:

• Germany 60
• UK 157

It's been higher in the UK all this year, and by a significant margin. Even with the vaccination program and lockdowns, the UK is experiencing more deaths than Germany is today... but the rates here are getting better and the rates there are getting worse.

Neither are comfortable. The primary thing the UK has going for it in regards C19 is the vaccination program.

Although in all seriousness, not wanting to get into a Deltona rant but there really are only four weeks to go until the date that was the peak last year. If the pattern is the same this year Germany may not actually get to the rate the UK is currently at before the seasonal decline.

I'm aware that South Africa is "the other way round" and didn't show a similar summer slowdown but it's also warm most of the year there, the seasons aren't really like Northern Europe.

I think there is reason to be optimistic that Germany (and the others) won't be hit too hard after all.

We know how fast the new variant spreads, its why it was so bad here in January. We can only hope they have learned from what they saw here. Their problem is that because its much more transmissible they now need to get vaccinated before they can open things up and they are miles behind the curve. They are now having to beg people to take the AZ vaccine that they were ridiculing just 3 weeks ago.

[CraigyMc]

Flooble said:

I think there is reason to be optimistic that Germany (and the others) won't be hit too hard after all.

I hope you're right, but I don't see it in the data.

I have lots of friends in Germany.

[Wombat3]

NextSlidePlease said:

Has the "UK variant" got a foothold in any European country yet? It tore us a new one and the trend charts don't look good for many EU countries currently.

I just hope they don't see the same spike we did after Christmas. We all need to exit this mess together.

Yes, very much so, this is what we have been seeing , total cases staying at fairly static levels but switching between the original and new variants. Its now reached the point where total cases are starting to climb & its likely to do exactly what it did here. Its hard to tell exactly how many cases are new Variant because they don't do enough Genomic testing but where they have been doing it it was over 35% new Variant in France and it spreads MUCH faster.

Case doubling rate is around 7-10 days (versus maybe 30 days for the original one IIRC)

[CraigyMc]

Wombat3 said:

NextSlidePlease said:

Has the "UK variant" got a foothold in any European country yet? It tore us a new one and the trend charts don't look good for many EU countries currently.

I just hope they don't see the same spike we did after Christmas. We all need to exit this mess together.

Yes, very much so, this is what we have been seeing , total cases staying at fairly static levels but switching between the original and new variants. Its now reached the point where total cases are starting to climb & its likely to do exactly what it did here. Its hard to tell exactly how many cases are new Variant because they don't do enough Genomic testing but where they have been doing it it was over 35% new Variant in France and it spreads MUCH faster.

Case doubling rate is around 7-10 days (versus maybe 30 days for the original one IIRC)

They do just as much genome sequencing in Denmark as they do here in the UK (in fact every positive case is sequenced there).
3 weeks ago the incidence of B117 (the Kent variant) was 20%. 2 weeks ago it was 27%. I don't have more up to date data than that but you can see the direction it was going in.