CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)

[Boringvolvodriver]

bern said:

Government debates the passport issue on Monday after the petition received over 260k signatures. Below is a copy of the email I have sent my MP. Please consider sending your own or feel free to copy and paste this one for me. Mine is a fully paid-up member of the Boris fan club so I expect no opposition from him whatsoever but at least I have done my bit. On another note, he has just posted on Facebook about rolling out mass LFT testing in workplaces with over 50 employees. Moonshot alive and well.

Email Alexander Stafford MP:

On Monday 15th parliament will debate vaccine passports after a petition that has raised over 260 thousand signatures. We have been repeatedly told that no such scheme will be put in place. That it is unworkable, unethical, and not needed by our own Prime Minister and Vaccine minster. Vaccines protect the vaccinated, that is how it works. It should have no bearing on the unvaccinated. If other countries and indeed our own country want to impose restrictions on entry based on a vaccination status, then that is entirely up to them and should be kept as a separate debate.

Restrictions on daily life in our own country should not be affected by a vaccination status. It is against everything we should value as a free western society. I am curious as to your position on this matter. Should we be restricting everyday activities based on a COVID-19 status certificate? I am a fit 41-year-old male, according to ONS data the population fatality rate, regardless of overall health, for my age group is 0.0024%. Based on this do you think it is reasonable to expect me to submit to regular vaccinations to work, shop, exercise, and partake in recreational activities? Personally, I will have the vaccine if it effects my ability to work. I am the sole earner for a family of four and would therefore have no choice, but I will do it under protest and sufferance.

Please consider the future of this country, the freedoms were have fought for over centuries and the society we are shaping for our children when this subject is debated.

Bern - thanks for that, am I ok to slightly amend to fit my circumstances it and use it to send to my MP?

[Graveworm]

WEF Alum seems to be off message. Not sure of his PH Username.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-562...

[bodhi]

Graveworm said:

WEF Alum seems to be off message. Not sure of his PH Username.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-562...

If you scroll to the bottom of the article it's good to see the Beeb are still quoting that 76% seroprevalance study from Manaus as accurate and not in any way an outlier.

[Graveworm]

bodhi said:

If you scroll to the bottom of the article it's good to see the Beeb are still quoting that 76% seroprevalance study from Manaus as accurate and not in any way an outlier.

Brazil still seems to have missed the Seasonal memo.

[bern]

Boringvolvodriver said:

bern said:

Government debates the passport issue on Monday after the petition received over 260k signatures. Below is a copy of the email I have sent my MP. Please consider sending your own or feel free to copy and paste this one for me. Mine is a fully paid-up member of the Boris fan club so I expect no opposition from him whatsoever but at least I have done my bit. On another note, he has just posted on Facebook about rolling out mass LFT testing in workplaces with over 50 employees. Moonshot alive and well.

Email Alexander Stafford MP:

On Monday 15th parliament will debate vaccine passports after a petition that has raised over 260 thousand signatures. We have been repeatedly told that no such scheme will be put in place. That it is unworkable, unethical, and not needed by our own Prime Minister and Vaccine minster. Vaccines protect the vaccinated, that is how it works. It should have no bearing on the unvaccinated. If other countries and indeed our own country want to impose restrictions on entry based on a vaccination status, then that is entirely up to them and should be kept as a separate debate.

Restrictions on daily life in our own country should not be affected by a vaccination status. It is against everything we should value as a free western society. I am curious as to your position on this matter. Should we be restricting everyday activities based on a COVID-19 status certificate? I am a fit 41-year-old male, according to ONS data the population fatality rate, regardless of overall health, for my age group is 0.0024%. Based on this do you think it is reasonable to expect me to submit to regular vaccinations to work, shop, exercise, and partake in recreational activities? Personally, I will have the vaccine if it effects my ability to work. I am the sole earner for a family of four and would therefore have no choice, but I will do it under protest and sufferance.

Please consider the future of this country, the freedoms were have fought for over centuries and the society we are shaping for our children when this subject is debated.

Bern - thanks for that, am I ok to slightly amend to fit my circumstances it and use it to send to my MP?

Absolutely, crack on. Volume of response is what is needed. He bds want burying in emails.

[danllama]

Funny how gadget man has disappeared.

[ant1973]

isaldiri said:

ant1973 said:

I spend quite a lot of time quite closely reading what people actually say.... perhaps more so that you do? This is not an exercise in semantics. You simply read something into what I actually said.

I pointed out what was planned. It's a useful indication of expectations. By February 2021, the likely deficit for 2022 would have been broadly understood. They could have gone further in February and indicated further support. They didn't. Will it come? Maybe.

Well, I spend a lot of time reading into what MPC committee members say as they very seldom come out and explicitly state what they are going to do before the actual meeting but it's usually quite obvious the implication of what is going to happen later. I find that tends to work a little bit better in financial markets than simply taking statements at face value.

And I think you will find that more than one major investment bank fully expects additional QE to be announced later in the year as well fwiw. So whatever they say is planned is not widely expected as being anything as definitive for 2021 as your post is implying whatever you may or may not mean by 'planned'. And I'm going to leave this point so as to stop boring the wits off everyone else.

I implied nothing. You blundered into my response with a pretty arrogant "nope" and proceeded to debunk an argument I had not advanced. You then changed your responses to invent other arguments I also did not advance for the sole purpose of illustrating they were wrong. I don't doubt that reading between the lines is an important task. However, what I would say is this: if market expectations of more QE was imminent, yields would not have doubled and tripled in some instances over the course of a month. The recent signals are less QE and not more. As you say, let's leave it at that.

[Taylor James]

danllama said:

Funny how gadget man has disappeared.

It's hugely beneficial. He is/was little more than a troll. The threads now seem to be populated by people that can hold a discussion without the need to insult other posters and there is less of a pack of government line supporters.

[ant1973]

Just to debunk the idea that the UK will still be competitive in Corporation Tax terms, the FT have produced the following:-



I can only assume they have no intention of actually implementing this tax rise. Alternatively, they are bargaining that other governments are headed in the same direction.

[dandarez]

Ntv said:

pincher said:

Matt_N said:

Elysium said:

Turns out you can travel anywhere in the country provided you have a reasonable excuse:

We have finally found a policeman who is willing to be honest about what the law actually says:

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/yor...

Its taken us almost a year of nonsense to get here though:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-5...

That’s brilliant to see, not only from the police POV but also that the BBC were obviously not expecting that line in the interview!

The BBC were obviously frothing at the prospect of the police coming on to tell off all those naughty people daring to drive for a walk on the beach and got the exact opposite

The look of bewilderment, incredulity and disbelief at what he was being told on the presenter’s face is priceless

That interview sums up the BBC very well. The tie, the suit and the hapless mixture of bias and ignorance.

BTW, in that BBC story from March 2020 ... the picture .. bottom right in the car park ... looks like a PHer!!!

Come on, own up!!

[bodhi]

Graveworm said:

Brazil still seems to have missed the Seasonal memo.

And you still haven't figured out that seasonality works ever so slightly differently depending on where you are in relation to the equator. Do we need to invoke Mr Hope-Simpson again?

[Graveworm]

bodhi said:

And you still haven't figured out that seasonality works ever so slightly differently depending on where you are in relation to the equator. Do we need to invoke Mr Hope-Simpson again?

That is the seasonality based on where you are in relation to the equator. It is specifically tropical and sub tropical seasonality for seasonal viruses.

[Elysium]

Graveworm said:

bodhi said:

If you scroll to the bottom of the article it's good to see the Beeb are still quoting that 76% seroprevalance study from Manaus as accurate and not in any way an outlier.

Brazil still seems to have missed the Seasonal memo.

I fear I am going to regret engaging with you on this, but I genuinely cannot imagine how you have managed to look at that image and determine that Brazil's data offers evidence against seasonality.

As a reminder, this is Hope Simpsons graph showing the typical seasonal pattern of influenza:



And this is a comparison of COVID deaths in the UK and Brazil:



Brazil is massive. Including lattitudes that range from the bottom of the North Tropical zone down to the upper part of the South Temperate zone.

What I see when I look at the data is a 'late seasonal effect' for the first wave, with the second wave occuring right where you would expect it.

Just as we have seen right across the North Temperate zone, including the UK

[Dr Doofenshmirtz]

It'll be interesting to see what happens next autumn. Especially the UK compared to Europe and the rest of the world what with our efforts in getting people vaccinated. Will we be a green bit in a sea of red high infection zones, or will it still level out?

[isaldiri]

Dr Doofenshmirtz said:

It'll be interesting to see what happens next autumn. Especially the UK compared to Europe and the rest of the world what with our efforts in getting people vaccinated. Will we be a green bit in a sea of red high infection zones, or will it still level out?

Assuming we are still stupid enough (v likely) to keep on testing for no good reason rather than simply test those that need hospital treatment, it's entirely likely it will be red everywhere whether here or Europe but simply relatively much less people in hospital or dropping dead here if rotw hasn't managed to finish up large scale vaccination for the older population.

Vaccination doesn't give sterilising immunity - I think it's rather likely the claimed reduction to transmission will likely be only quite short term and the main use would be longer term protective immunity from serious disease. It's not going to prevent infections next autumn but whether said infections are a big deal or not is quite another issue.

[Ntv]

Taylor James said:

danllama said:

Funny how gadget man has disappeared.

It's hugely beneficial. He is/was little more than a troll. The threads now seem to be populated by people that can hold a discussion without the need to insult other posters and there is less of a pack of government line supporters.

Yes, the tedious obsession with WEF conspiracists.

It's a tiny minority of those who think there is a very good chance the "cure" is worse than the disease, and that we have inflicted damage we don't understand across society.

[Jinx]

Elysium said:

I fear I am going to regret engaging with you on this, but I genuinely cannot imagine how you have managed to look at that image and determine that Brazil's data offers evidence against seasonality.

As a reminder, this is Hope Simpsons graph showing the typical seasonal pattern of influenza:



And this is a comparison of COVID deaths in the UK and Brazil:



Brazil is massive. Including lattitudes that range from the bottom of the North Tropical zone down to the upper part of the South Temperate zone.

What I see when I look at the data is a 'late seasonal effect' for the first wave, with the second wave occuring right where you would expect it.

Just as we have seen right across the North Temperate zone, including the UK

Argentina? Chile? Paraguay? And why are you looking at deaths? Deaths are seasonal so cases need to be used as the measure.

[Alucidnation]

I hear Cyprus are opening up to us if we can prove a negative test or vaccination.

At least that will give people the opportunity to get away to foreign lands over summer.

[deebs]

Sturgeons briefing, along with Scotland's national clinical director, Jason leitch:

"Jason Leitch jumps in and mentions ongoing trials of vaccines in young children.

He says in time we will "almost certainly" vaccinate children and this would perhaps be in round two in the autumn/winter of this year if trials go well.

He adds that vaccination at scale is about protecting the population, even the unvaccinated."

That is absolutely insane. I've a son who is 6, the idea I will be asked in autumn to get him vaccinated with a vaccine thats been on trial for a maximum of 8 months or so for children, which offers him no benefit is bonkers. Beyond incredible.

[Ntv]

Elysium said:

Graveworm said:

bodhi said:

If you scroll to the bottom of the article it's good to see the Beeb are still quoting that 76% seroprevalance study from Manaus as accurate and not in any way an outlier.

Brazil still seems to have missed the Seasonal memo.

I fear I am going to regret engaging with you on this, but I genuinely cannot imagine how you have managed to look at that image and determine that Brazil's data offers evidence against seasonality.

As a reminder, this is Hope Simpsons graph showing the typical seasonal pattern of influenza:



And this is a comparison of COVID deaths in the UK and Brazil:



Brazil is massive. Including lattitudes that range from the bottom of the North Tropical zone down to the upper part of the South Temperate zone.

What I see when I look at the data is a 'late seasonal effect' for the first wave, with the second wave occuring right where you would expect it.

Just as we have seen right across the North Temperate zone, including the UK

I've read it is well established that "seasonal" respiratory viruses are significantly less seasonal in the tropics, for obvious reasons. Whatever underlying seasonality there is in Brazil could perhaps be drowned out by other factors over an unsettled period for this virus.