Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 2)

[stongle]

roger.mellie said:

stongle said:

roger.mellie said:

“Slow learners” is a phrase often used in NI politics, it’s used to refer to the length of time it takes to reach political agreements that were obviously going to be done but a certain hard core need brought along before they’re politically possible. I’m not accusing you of that, but some of the UK vs EU arguments on the go at the moment do remind me of that phrase.

The closer you are to agreement, or the answer being obvious; the louder the wailing and noise.

The problem comes when partisans who have the most personal investment start up the shouting. This is often politicians - or those on the fringes of an argument (in here) who view the world through single issues or "them and us"...

No one with actual domain knowledge thinks the equivalence spat is going to go too bad, there is an element of noisy politics in play - but the irrational outcome is a low probability for reasons explained numerous times.

Agreed. A win win outcome on equivalence is in the interests of all, and achievable, but it will require some dialling down of the them and us political rhetoric. It might not happen on the front pages as “them vs us” has been very electorally successful for the Tory party and will therefore continue (and Keir hasn’t yet worked out a strategy to tackle that), but reality always wins.

As if by magic, what we discussed just 2 days ago is starting to show in the numbers.....

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN2AU00A

The rate of drop is slowing. Although another 100bn of outflows from London to the EU; the RoA is around 0.4% in France / Netherlands (it's 0 in Germany); so the gross revenue drop could be as high as EUR400mil (p.a.) - but its significantly, significantly lower due to liability costs. The article again points out what I have raised - the European market IS fragmented and the current spat really does nothing to improve that. Even after the total move of assets, the UK is still (probably - the last count I saw was end Q2 2020) the largest cross border asset centre globally.

It's another area where the headlines / hyperbole are one and the same. If the move of EU share trading to AMS was such a shock, why so few jobs moved (100 jobs since Oct = media crock of st).

Of course a hundred million in outflows are large compared to other sectors, but the "actual" death longed for (cos forum schadenfreude) is so over exaggerated is jokes. To put that revenue outflow into context, Goldman Sachs bonus pot is around £10billion per annum. Or the UK boss of TCI paid himself £340million. 1 person..........

Despite the reality being nowhere near the hyperbole, the UK has to up its game. Deutsche Boerse is aggressively innovating; some of the stuff we have seen could be sector disruptive.

Edited by stongle on Tuesday 2nd March 06:18

[chrispmartha]

stongle said:

And you whined about nuance? Seriously, you are throwing out words you don't understand the meaning off.

I can spell them correctly though.

Edited by chrispmartha on Tuesday 2nd March 06:51

[anonymous-user]

Euro area factory costs rising fastest in a decade with transport costs also rising.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-01...

[Digga]

Mortarboard said:

turbobloke said:

Farage has fans?

To direct the hot air, shurely?

M.

So the phrase "when the st hits the fan" has never been more apt.

[turbobloke]

Digga said:

Mortarboard said:

turbobloke said:

Farage has fans?

To direct the hot air, shurely?

M.

So the phrase "when the st hits the fan" has never been more apt.

Cloughie got there first!

[Digga]

jsf said:

Euro area factory costs rising fastest in a decade with transport costs also rising.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-01...

TBF, in a great many ways and for a great many reasons, the global economy, never mind the EU, has been forced into a new era.

Commodity prices, shipping costs etc. etc. are all volatile. Rare earth is the 21c oil, possibly....

[roger.mellie]

stongle said:

As if by magic, what we discussed just 2 days ago is starting to show in the numbers.....

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN2AU00A

The rate of drop is slowing. Although another 100bn of outflows from London to the EU; the RoA is around 0.4% in France / Netherlands (it's 0 in Germany); so the gross revenue drop could be as high as EUR400mil (p.a.) - but its significantly, significantly lower due to liability costs. The article again points out what I have raised - the European market IS fragmented and the current spat really does nothing to improve that. Even after the total move of assets, the UK is still (probably - the last count I saw was end Q2 2020) the largest cross border asset centre globally.

It's another area where the headlines / hyperbole are one and the same. If the move of EU share trading to AMS was such a shock, why so few jobs moved (100 jobs since Oct = media crock of st).

Of course a hundred million in outflows are large compared to other sectors, but the "actual" death longed for (cos forum schadenfreude) is so over exaggerated is jokes. To put that revenue outflow into context, Goldman Sachs bonus pot is around £10billion per annum. Or the UK boss of TCI paid himself £340million. 1 person..........

Despite the reality being nowhere near the hyperbole, the UK has to up its game. Deutsche Boerse is aggressively innovating; some of the stuff we have seen could be sector disruptive.

Edited by stongle on Tuesday 2nd March 06:18

Good to see.

I could bore the hell out of this thread discussing 16th century Dutch dominance on trade and banking, not my area but I've read some interesting stuff on it recently . I'm only mentioning that because even today it has some relevance to how they've been quite successful on capturing some of the inevitable reflows that have and will happen as a result of brexit. Moreso than Germany.

Does anyone really think London is doomed as a financial centre? That would be a ridiculous notion.

Where I'd differ to you on some related areas is that I don't agree that services are too complicated for the government to have made them part of a deal with the EU or make them part of future deals with other countries. Finance and banking may not be a quick fix goer due to the complexities but services are about much more than that.

The UK upping its game can be both competition and collaboration. They were/are the minor party on trade negotiations but on any banking and services negotiations I'd like to think they are the elephant in the room.

[Digga]

roger.mellie said:

I could bore the hell out of this thread discussing 16th century Dutch dominance on trade and banking, not my area but I've read some interesting stuff on it recently . I'm only mentioning that because even today it has some relevance to how they've been quite successful on capturing some of the inevitable reflows that have and will happen as a result of brexit. Moreso than Germany.

The Dutch have a number of things going for them. Geography for one - they are the keystone to physical goods entry into Europe - and also the fact they are and have long been wheeler dealers. They aren't just good at trade, they are traders through and through. Commerce defines them. Well the ones who aren't busy smoking and eating the herb.

[Crackie]

DeepEnd said:

This discussion is getting even more stale than usual with deep entrenchment.

It doesn't have to be that way. You can change.

Stewie started yesterday morning by saying that posting links regarding corruption at the heat of the EU and persecution of whistle blowers was "whimpering on" about it. Less than 9 hours later he posted that the EU are a self serving set of aholes. Progress

Come on DeepEnd, you can do it.

[rscott]

Iminquarantine said:

crankedup said:

Also we have not stopped trading with the EU, we have not ‘lost’ our trade with it, but it is more cumbersome whilst the changes bed in.

The changes with the E.U. will not ‘bed in’. They are a structural part of being a third country.

The E.U. was 43% of U.K. trade. That just got harder and more expensive. You need to make 43% of the remaining trade easier and cheaper, just to break even. Ain’t happening.

We're not even applying all the import/export regulations yet - some food related ones don't come into effect until later this year. They were delayed to give the various authorities time to scale up to be able to process them - something they couldn't go ahead of time as the rules weren't agreed until the very last minute.

Personally, we're benefitting from the new regulations. The other half works for a port health authority processing all the import paperwork and is doing a lot more overtime (at very nice rates too) 40+ new staff being taken on, as they're having to almost double in size top cope with it all, plus a completely new organisation being created at another port nearby which handles almost entirely EU sourced shipments. Very little of this could have been done ahead of time as no-one knew exactly what the rules were.

Would have been far more sensible it they'd agreed that we'd trade with the EU under the old rules for 6 months after the deal had been signed, giving everyone time to get processes, procedures and staff in place.

[anonymous-user]

rscott said:

Would have been far more sensible it they'd agreed that we'd trade with the EU under the old rules for 6 months after the deal had been signed, giving everyone time to get processes, procedures and staff in place.

It would, but that's not how the EU work, they always push the negotiations until the very last minute.
UK has effectively implemented a transition period on imports, EU haven't, hence UK exports being more impacted than EU exports. That is going to change when UK applies the same checks on EU sourced imports as ROW.

[crankedup]

DeepEnd said:

crankedup said:

Have you only just today found that information on the bloke, another to add to your hate list I expect

Just googled him, as you do. What a spanner he clearly is.

Are you a fan?

What makes you ask that? Odd question to ask.
It was one of your remainer camp pals brought the name and his business into the thread, looks like he is the one supporting Forman and his business.Perhaps you replied to the wrong poster, certainly makes much more sense.

[crankedup]

JeffreyD said:

crankedup said:

Government is supporting the Industry, in case you missed it along with Lance Forman, the U.K. Government is handing over £100 million grant aid.

Any news on the 100 million?
Or is it still a promise?

Why not investigate development for yourself?

[JeffreyD]

crankedup said:

Why not investigate development for yourself?

Before I asked the question I did.

I couldn't find anything clear and alot of what is in there seems to be about coronavirus grants.

I've noticed you've mentioned it quite a few times so I thought I'd ask if you know any more than the vague promises from a government that is well known for bullstting. I'd have thought they'd have done some work on how to implement this type of grant prior to agreeing the deal.

for example have they announced any grants for shellfish purification plants? Seems like a no brainer to me, and should be a piece of piss to implement.

[Pan Pan Pan]

JeffreyD said:

crankedup said:

Why not investigate development for yourself?

Before I asked the question I did.

I couldn't find anything clear and alot of what is in there seems to be about coronavirus grants.

I've noticed you've mentioned it quite a few times so I thought I'd ask if you know any more than the vague promises from a government that is well known for bullstting. I'd have thought they'd have done some work on how to implement this type of grant prior to agreeing the deal.

for example have they announced any grants for shellfish purification plants? Seems like a no brainer to me, and should be a piece of piss to implement.

With the added irony of French fishermen selling their shellfish catch directly to customers on the quayside straight off their boats, with no purification plants in between.
It must be the UK boats which are the problem, because some of the shellfish the French are catching come from the same UK territorial waters that the UK boats are catching in.
Perhaps the UK shellfish are foul mouthed, and need `purification' before they can be sold to delicate French customers?

[crankedup]

JeffreyD said:

crankedup said:

Why not investigate development for yourself?

Before I asked the question I did.

I couldn't find anything clear and alot of what is in there seems to be about coronavirus grants.

I've noticed you've mentioned it quite a few times so I thought I'd ask if you know any more than the vague promises from a government that is well known for bullstting. I'd have thought they'd have done some work on how to implement this type of grant prior to agreeing the deal.

for example have they announced any grants for shellfish purification plants? Seems like a no brainer to me, and should be a piece of piss to implement.

The information is all out there to bring you up to date, £23million has gone out + a further £100million is pipelined. You ask about shellfish purification equipment, grant aid is applied for, that aid will then be granted if the submission is strong enough to meet set criteria. It is the case that £100s millions are not simply scattered to four winds in the hope it will be spent wisely (PPE EXCEPTED). The overall grant is, IIRC based upon a five year program of requested assistance from the industry. I can’t underwrite the Governments commitments any more then you, other then come election time.
Government.org carries all the information for public consumption.

[sunbeam alpine]

Pan Pan Pan said:

JeffreyD said:

crankedup said:

Why not investigate development for yourself?

Before I asked the question I did.

I couldn't find anything clear and alot of what is in there seems to be about coronavirus grants.

I've noticed you've mentioned it quite a few times so I thought I'd ask if you know any more than the vague promises from a government that is well known for bullstting. I'd have thought they'd have done some work on how to implement this type of grant prior to agreeing the deal.

for example have they announced any grants for shellfish purification plants? Seems like a no brainer to me, and should be a piece of piss to implement.

With the added irony of French fishermen selling their shellfish catch directly to customers on the quayside straight off their boats, with no purification plants in between.
It must be the UK boats which are the problem, because some of the shellfish the French are catching come from the same UK territorial waters that the UK boats are catching in.
Perhaps the UK shellfish are foul mouthed, and need `purification' before they can be sold to delicate French customers?

The UK is now a 3rd country as far as the EU is concerned. This means that different rules apply after 1st January 2021, as you well know.

Ironically, it now appears that the majority of fisherman voted to put themselves in this position as well.

[citizensm1th]

sunbeam alpine said:

The UK is now a 3rd country as far as the EU is concerned. This means that different rules apply after 1st January 2021, as you well know.

Ironically, it now appears that the majority of fisherman voted to put themselves in this position as well.

The very same fisherman who now feel betrayed and sold down the river by the current deal

[Digga]

Fittster said:

Forman, a former member of the European Parliament representing the Brexit party, said the current situation is not a Brexit problem, "but a problem of British bureaucracy not being ready in time."

As a result of that failure, Forman said the government needs to pay back companies impacted.

TBF to the loon, he has something of a point.

It appeared at the time, and with the benefit of just a couple of months hindsight (and ongoing transport issues) that there was a decent slice of UK government (in the very broadest sense of the word) who were not only in denial of the result of the 2016 referendum but were so intent on working in the blind faith that the culmination would be either no Brexit or at the very least Brexit-In-Name-Only, that they made no real contingency plans.

The UK becoming a third nation was, in the fan diagram of events, a not unlikely one. Fishermen are by no means the only recipients of the chaos caused by this abject lack of planning. I doubt heads will roll.

[jesusbuiltmycar]

sunbeam alpine said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

JeffreyD said:

crankedup said:

Why not investigate development for yourself?

Before I asked the question I did.

I couldn't find anything clear and alot of what is in there seems to be about coronavirus grants.

I've noticed you've mentioned it quite a few times so I thought I'd ask if you know any more than the vague promises from a government that is well known for bullstting. I'd have thought they'd have done some work on how to implement this type of grant prior to agreeing the deal.

for example have they announced any grants for shellfish purification plants? Seems like a no brainer to me, and should be a piece of piss to implement.

With the added irony of French fishermen selling their shellfish catch directly to customers on the quayside straight off their boats, with no purification plants in between.
It must be the UK boats which are the problem, because some of the shellfish the French are catching come from the same UK territorial waters that the UK boats are catching in.
Perhaps the UK shellfish are foul mouthed, and need `purification' before they can be sold to delicate French customers?

The UK is now a 3rd country as far as the EU is concerned. This means that different rules apply after 1st January 2021, as you well know.

Ironically, it now appears that the majority of fisherman voted to put themselves in this position as well.

EU being petty what a surprise...

Edited by jesusbuiltmycar on Tuesday 2nd March 12:16