Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 2)

[Mortarboard]

stongle said:

I'm not. You ventured into a macro argument incorrectly.

The local level problems are all fair, the impact of GBP fx you insinuate; no.

I posited a reason for the GBP fx movement, not an impact (aside from over time, cashflow out of a country is an adverse thing)
GBP strengthening is not (imo) due to changes in:

Trade of goods
Trade of services
Tourism related flow
Currency speculation

You suggest its due to upcoming US stimulus, but if that was the case the Euro would mirror that. It doesnt.
Steepest rise appears to be againt the yuan.

Im suggesting that if its not goods or services, then its assets being bought with foreign resources. I'm not seeing any cpmparable valuation increases on london exchanges such as FTSE100 or 250.

More to be read in balance of payment movements than currency or stock exchange though, to be fair. That tracks the actual flow of cash.

M.

[Iminquarantine]

In shock survey finding, Brexit supporters are more likely to be anti vaxxers or refuse a Covid 19 vaccine. Even more so if they voted for Farage’s party, with half of those saying they would refuse a vaccine.

Triumph of illogical beliefs over reality!

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/covid-vaccine-polling-h...

[gooner1]

As a prime example of gaming......this deserves to be aired here imo.


https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status/1364600353...



Does this link comply with rule 16?

If so how, if not why is this thread and most others full of such links without a mod removing them.

Genuine question.

16. Do not copy and paste content from newspapers, news sites or other websites. This is a breach of their copyright and any such threads will be deleted.

Edited by gooner1 on Wednesday 24th February 19:56

[bitchstewie]

Iminquarantine said:

In shock survey finding, Brexit supporters are more likely to be anti vaxxers or refuse a Covid 19 vaccine. Even more so if they voted for Farage’s party, with half of those saying they would refuse a vaccine.

Triumph of illogical beliefs over reality!

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/covid-vaccine-polling-h...

It doesn't surprise me given previous research

Brexit and Trump voters are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories

[stongle]

Mortarboard said:

I posited a reason for the GBP fx movement, not an impact (aside from over time, cashflow out of a country is an adverse thing)
GBP strengthening is not (imo) due to changes in:

Trade of goods
Trade of services
Tourism related flow
Currency speculation

You suggest its due to upcoming US stimulus, but if that was the case the Euro would mirror that. It doesnt.
Steepest rise appears to be againt the yuan.

Im suggesting that if its not goods or services, then its assets being bought with foreign resources. I'm not seeing any cpmparable valuation increases on london exchanges such as FTSE100 or 250.

More to be read in balance of payment movements than currency or stock exchange though, to be fair. That tracks the actual flow of cash.

M.

Currency speculation has many, many variables many more than Brexit. CCY pairs are not linear.

FTSE and GBP are normally negatively correlated, but macro easing pushes oil or commodities prices up. Its got way more variables than brexit or fisherman.. .

[powerstroke]

paul0843 said:

Empty trucks also means more expensive Uk imports,leading to prices rising prices in Uk .
Transport companies will be passing on the cost of the empty leg.
IMO everything imported from Europe will rise by 10-20%
Paul

well that’s good for British business
10 to 20 % advantage then ,
Oh and the conversation I had with a U.K. international haulier today was if your paperwork is right no problem and rates are better as it’s made it harder for the cowboy operators ... so a win win ...

[JeffreyD]

gooner1 said:

They saw the game coming? Four days after BJ’s ( sorry if that abbreviation upsets your delicate disposition.again) speech.How does the EU plan to ban holiday makers to it’s member countries differ from Stongle’s
poo poohed idea of U.K. holiday makers non trips to those destinations?

UK holiday makers are already banned from most EU countries so they need to make a positive decision to change that as they have done for certain other countries.

So if we get our infections rates down to the level of those countries then they should open up to us.

[Mortarboard]

stongle said:

Currency speculation has many, many variables many more than Brexit. CCY pairs are not linear.

FTSE and GBP are normally negatively correlated, but macro easing pushes oil or commodities prices up. Its got way more variables than brexit or fisherman.. .

Agreed. But surely GBP is "insert whatever the financial term for there's lots of it" to not be significantly affected by currency speculations?
I know China keeps pushing their value down, but that takes a country the size of China to do it.....surely even with leveraging event the most Nick Leeson minded speculator couldn't significantly affect the trade price of sterling?

Scary thought - what if a speculator could in theory do it - and then fail to back it up? Like the current/recent Gamestop speculation, but on the scale of the entire GBP market?

M.

[Groat]

Anyone watching C4 news right now? (19.17) (bees cheese and big fat pigs)

That wasn't jawflapping egotripping city suit knowall bullstters. That was agribusiness people.

Ironically one of them (bee guy) said he'd been a diehard quitter. Flippin' fumin' he is now

Edited by Groat on Wednesday 24th February 19:42

[Mortarboard]

powerstroke said:

paul0843 said:

Empty trucks also means more expensive Uk imports,leading to prices rising prices in Uk .
Transport companies will be passing on the cost of the empty leg.
IMO everything imported from Europe will rise by 10-20%
Paul

well that’s good for British business
10 to 20 % advantage then ,
Oh and the conversation I had with a U.K. international haulier today was if your paperwork is right no problem and rates are better as it’s made it harder for the cowboy operators ... so a win win ...

This VAT situation *should* be temporary.
At the moment, retail import sales are double VAT, plus "handling charge" from the shipper.

Double VAT should drop - i.e. the EU exporter should not be charging EU VAT (making it "X" cheaper to start), then UK VAT applied "locally"
e.g.
Item currently 100 euros (inc 20% VAT in france) UK buyer pays (at the moment) - UK buyer paying 120 euros
(Source price, plus UK VAT)
When it *should* be UK buyer pays 100 euros, less the French VAT, so 83.33 euros, then add UK 20% VAT (or whatever the rate is) - back to 100 euros


Shippers are taking the piss monumentally with some charges, I would hope/expect this to become more efficient soon(ish).

A UK haulier saying "rates are better" is not a win-win for the consumer!

M.

[anonymous-user]

Mortarboard said:

Agreed. But surely GBP is "insert whatever the financial term for there's lots of it" to not be significantly affected by currency speculations?
I know China keeps pushing their value down, but that takes a country the size of China to do it.....surely even with leveraging event the most Nick Leeson minded speculator couldn't significantly affect the trade price of sterling?

Scary thought - what if a speculator could in theory do it - and then fail to back it up? Like the current/recent Gamestop speculation, but on the scale of the entire GBP market?

M.

China sets their exchange rate, it's not a floating currency subject to market forces.

We saw what happens to GBP if it's not allowed to float and has to be backed by the treasury during the ERM period, where UK was forced out of the ERM due to market pressure.

[Iminquarantine]

More winning! Professional cycling.

I see an opening here for a rejig of the Tour of Britain, but only open to British residents. Obvs it will instantly eclipse the Tour de France, because it will be British.

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/its-been...


‘It’s been a f**king nightmare’: How Brexit is impacting the careers of British riders

From WorldTour to amateur level - some are expecting short seasons while teams may not want to take a risk on British riders

[paul0843]

jsf said:

paul0843 said:

Empty trucks also means more expensive Uk imports,leading to prices rising prices in Uk .
Transport companies will be passing on the cost of the empty leg.
IMO everything imported from Europe will rise by 10-20%
Paul

Hows your costs doing now on transport from Italy?
Since we last talked about it the spot price has returned to it's pre Brexit rate.

Double what they were a few weeks ago.
Also where we could get transport at the drop of a hat,now it’s every 2-3 weeks from making a request.
Our usual,haulier of choice has seized all trade with Europe,and from what I am hearing also a lot of other transport companies,hence the spike in prices,
Paul

[Iminquarantine]

Groat said:

Anyone watching C4 news right now? (19.17) (bees cheese and big fat pigs)

That wasn't jawflapping egotripping city suit knowall bullstters. That was agribusiness people.

Ironically one of them (bee guy) said he'd been a diehard quitter. Flippin' fumin' he is now

Edited by Groat on Wednesday 24th February 19:42

Didn’t see it. Do tell what went on?

[Mortarboard]

Iminquarantine said:

More winning! Professional cycling.

I see an opening here for a rejig of the Tour of Britain, but only open to British residents. Obvs it will instantly eclipse the Tour de France, because it will be British.

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/its-been...

More whining you mean.

Seriously. Plenty of non-EU entrants. How do they deal with it? FFS.

What next? "Can all future olympics be held in the UK, visas are awkward...."

M.

[Iminquarantine]

Mortarboard said:

More whining you mean.

Seriously. Plenty of non-EU entrants. How do they deal with it? FFS.

What next? "Can all future olympics be held in the UK, visas are awkward...."

M.

The Olympics do not require training for 90+ days in the host country. Being a member of a foreign team does.

[Mortarboard]

I'd be surprised if some efforts arent made soon on phyto-sanitary equivalence. Its going to cost too much otherwise.

After a few months like this, it would be easier to ask a question of agree equivalence, or continue the current situation.

M.

[Mortarboard]

Iminquarantine said:

The Olympics do not require training for 90+ days in the host country. Being a member of a foreign team does.

You'll have to expand on that. You're telling me that in order to compete in T de F or the Giro d'I you MUST spend 90 days in the country? And even if that is the case, plenty of nonEU competing.

M.

[anonymous-user]

Iminquarantine said:

Mortarboard said:

More whining you mean.

Seriously. Plenty of non-EU entrants. How do they deal with it? FFS.

What next? "Can all future olympics be held in the UK, visas are awkward...."

M.

The Olympics do not require training for 90+ days in the host country. Being a member of a foreign team does.

You what?

[gooner1]

bhstewie said:

It doesn't surprise me given previous research

Brexit and Trump voters are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories

Says the poster who thinks he’s Christ.

Edited by gooner1 on Wednesday 24th February 20:20