Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 2)

[Iminquarantine]

Mortarboard said:

You'll have to expand on that. You're telling me that in order to compete in T de F or the Giro d'I you MUST spend 90 days in the country? And even if that is the case, plenty of nonEU competing.

M.

I take it, that as a professional cyclist yourself, that you aren’t expecting any problems training in the EU after Covid has settled down? Are you in a British team, so you can train with your team mates in the UK.

Cyclists for EU based teams and even British members of non EU teams who train in the EU seem to be having problems. Cyclist Harry Tanfield explains “‘It cost me a f*** load”

Harry explains further, “Yeah it’s been a f***ing nightmare,” he told Cycling Weekly, eloquently summing up how most people have felt over the past 12 months. The 26-year-old found a WorldTour contract at the eleventh hour, as Qhubeka-Assos rose from the ashes of Team NTT. It turns out finding a team would be the easy part. “Rather not go through all that [visa] s**t again. Cost me a f**k load.”

[sunbeam alpine]

Mortarboard said:

Couple that with the agribusiness hit (as I seriously doubt that the UK can replace EU subsidies 1:1), the next two years are not going to be pretty...

This is the only bit on which I'm able to comment. Friends of mine farming in the UK are expecting about 50% of the subsidies they previously received under EU membership. Presentations from the NFU (and others) also suggest that subsidies will be linked to environmental requirements, which ar as yet not detailed.

This will lead to some areas of agriculture becoming untenable.

Please note - all the farmers I know would much rather work without subsidies but receive a fair market price for their products.

[Mortarboard]

Iminquarantine said:

Mortarboard said:

You'll have to expand on that. You're telling me that in order to compete in T de F or the Giro d'I you MUST spend 90 days in the country? And even if that is the case, plenty of nonEU competing.

M.

I take it, that as a professional cyclist yourself, that you aren’t expecting any problems training in the EU after Covid has settled down? Are you in a British team, so you can train with your team mates in the UK.

Cyclists for EU based teams and even British members of non EU teams who train in the EU seem to be having problems. Cyclist Harry Tanfield explains “‘It cost me a f*** load”

Harry explains further, “Yeah it’s been a f***ing nightmare,” he told Cycling Weekly, eloquently summing up how most people have felt over the past 12 months. The 26-year-old found a WorldTour contract at the eleventh hour, as Qhubeka-Assos rose from the ashes of Team NTT. It turns out finding a team would be the easy part. “Rather not go through all that [visa] s**t again. Cost me a f**k load.”

Greg Le Monde & Lance Armstrong say the brits are whining.

• may not be an actual quote form either of them, but that's what they'd think if they read your post.

M.

[gooner1]

Iminquarantine said:

I take it, that as a professional cyclist yourself, that you aren’t expecting any problems training in the EU after Covid has settled down? Are you in a British team, so you can train with your team mates in the UK.

Cyclists for EU based teams and even British members of non EU teams who train in the EU seem to be having problems. Cyclist Harry Tanfield explains “‘It cost me a f*** load”

Harry explains further, “Yeah it’s been a f***ing nightmare,” he told Cycling Weekly, eloquently summing up how most people have felt over the past 12 months. The 26-year-old found a WorldTour contract at the eleventh hour, as Qhubeka-Assos rose from the ashes of Team NTT. It turns out finding a team would be the easy part. “Rather not go through all that [visa] s**t again. Cost me a f**k load.”

Fair play to Harry for embracing cycling events further afield. Mind you you can see why some other European teams would like to seeBritish professional cyclists removed from the TDF. Our yellow jerseys must be like a red rag to the yellow despising Macron.

[Mortarboard]

sunbeam alpine said:

Mortarboard said:

Couple that with the agribusiness hit (as I seriously doubt that the UK can replace EU subsidies 1:1), the next two years are not going to be pretty...

This is the only bit on which I'm able to comment. Friends of mine farming in the UK are expecting about 50% of the subsidies they previously received under EU membership. Presentations from the NFU (and others) also suggest that subsidies will be linked to environmental requirements, which ar as yet not detailed.

This will lead to some areas of agriculture becoming untenable.

Please note - all the farmers I know would much rather work without subsidies but receive a fair market price for their products.

I'd say that 50% would put a serious chunk of agriculture becoming untenable. Outside of maybe all but the biggest scale production.

Is it the case in the UK that the majority of profit is in the processing parts of the business? Seems to be that way in Ireland at the moment for meat processing anyway.

Not everyone will be able to move into more "craft" style production, I would suspect.

[gooner1]

JeffreyD said:

gooner1 said:

They saw the game coming? Four days after BJ’s ( sorry if that abbreviation upsets your delicate disposition.again) speech.How does the EU plan to ban holiday makers to it’s member countries differ from Stongle’s
poo poohed idea of U.K. holiday makers non trips to those destinations?

UK holiday makers are already banned from most EU countries so they need to make a positive decision to change that as they have done for certain other countries.

So if we get our infections rates down to the level of those countries then they should open up to us.

So why the new announcement of proposed holiday makers ban by the EU, or is this a new restriction only applicable to Brits?

[DeepEnd]

Mortarboard said:

sunbeam alpine said:

Mortarboard said:

Couple that with the agribusiness hit (as I seriously doubt that the UK can replace EU subsidies 1:1), the next two years are not going to be pretty...

This is the only bit on which I'm able to comment. Friends of mine farming in the UK are expecting about 50% of the subsidies they previously received under EU membership. Presentations from the NFU (and others) also suggest that subsidies will be linked to environmental requirements, which ar as yet not detailed.

This will lead to some areas of agriculture becoming untenable.

Please note - all the farmers I know would much rather work without subsidies but receive a fair market price for their products.

I'd say that 50% would put a serious chunk of agriculture becoming untenable. Outside of maybe all but the biggest scale production.

Is it the case in the UK that the majority of profit is in the processing parts of the business? Seems to be that way in Ireland at the moment for meat processing anyway.

Not everyone will be able to move into more "craft" style production, I would suspect.

If UK farmers suddenly have a 50% cut in subsidy, and their prices need to go up - are the overall market dynamics understood?

The UK imports only around 16% diary at the moment (98% from EU) - could domestic price shifts see that shift to favour EU farms? It was a level playing field but now the UK may chose to provide less subsidy than they used to. Could the UK apply tariffs on EU imports to protect UK farmers? Would the level playing field allow this? Would the govt even want to? Maybe - consumer prices could go up; but possibly better overall for the economy whilst not so good for those on lower incomes.

[JeffreyD]

gooner1 said:

So why the new announcement of proposed holiday makers ban by the EU, or is this a new restriction only applicable to Brits?

I stand to be corrected but the 3rd country non-essential travel ban has been in place for months. The restriction is for practically all non EU countries excluding placed like NZ that have almost zero infection.

The latest talk of "bans" is just to get the juices flowing - it will be like this for years.

[Mortarboard]

DeepEnd said:

If UK farmers suddenly have a 50% cut in subsidy, and their prices need to go up - are the overall market dynamics understood?

The UK imports only around 16% diary at the moment (98% from EU) - could domestic price shifts see that shift to favour EU farms? It was a level playing field but now the UK may chose to provide less subsidy than they used to. Could the UK apply tariffs on EU imports to protect UK farmers? Would the level playing field allow this? Would the govt even want to? Maybe - consumer prices could go up; but possibly better overall for the economy whilst not so good for those on lower incomes.

Valid point, especially fir something like milk. Is it covered in the FTA? Could the UK argue that current EU subsidy levels allow the UK to impose balancing tarriffs as per the agreement?

Doubt there's milk imported from outside the EU?

M.

[anonymous-user]

The biggest problem for UK milk producers has been the price supermarkets will pay, it's been this way for decades.

[stongle]

Mortarboard said:

Agreed. But surely GBP is "insert whatever the financial term for there's lots of it" to not be significantly affected by currency speculations?
I know China keeps pushing their value down, but that takes a country the size of China to do it.....surely even with leveraging event the most Nick Leeson minded speculator couldn't significantly affect the trade price of sterling?

Scary thought - what if a speculator could in theory do it - and then fail to back it up? Like the current/recent Gamestop speculation, but on the scale of the entire GBP market?

M.

I'd happily spend all day spit spitballing outcomes here, because some find it boring (whines of salad), my thinking is a weakened CCY suits the UK as it has Germany. And well done them.

Yes thats glib, but Germany massively benefits from Euro undervalued for them. Over valued for others. GBP does have a nutter in government premium though.

[Mortarboard]

stongle said:

I'd happily spend all day spit spitballing outcomes here, because some find it boring (whines of salad), my thinking is a weakened CCY suits the UK as it has Germany. And well done them.

Yes thats glib, but Germany massively benefits from Euro undervalued for them. Over valued for others. GBP does have a nutter in government premium though.

Indeed. Spain used to devalue the peseta regularly to benefit the tourism trade.
I always thought it interesting the UK didnt take the same advantage as Germany, and join the Euro at a similarly advantageous point. With the share of trade in services, it would have paid off in spades

M.

[anonymous-user]

Mortarboard said:

Indeed. Spain used to devalue the peseta regularly to benefit the tourism trade.
I always thought it interesting the UK didnt take the same advantage as Germany, and join the Euro at a similarly advantageous point. With the share of trade in services, it would have paid off in spades

M.

The ERM experiment suggested it wouldn't work for UK.
Losing your ability to print your own money is a massive thing, it removes a lot of flexibility.

[DeepEnd]

Mortarboard said:

DeepEnd said:

If UK farmers suddenly have a 50% cut in subsidy, and their prices need to go up - are the overall market dynamics understood?

The UK imports only around 16% diary at the moment (98% from EU) - could domestic price shifts see that shift to favour EU farms? It was a level playing field but now the UK may chose to provide less subsidy than they used to. Could the UK apply tariffs on EU imports to protect UK farmers? Would the level playing field allow this? Would the govt even want to? Maybe - consumer prices could go up; but possibly better overall for the economy whilst not so good for those on lower incomes.

Valid point, especially fir something like milk. Is it covered in the FTA? Could the UK argue that current EU subsidy levels allow the UK to impose balancing tarriffs as per the agreement?

Doubt there's milk imported from outside the EU?

M.

Yes, that is what I'm wondering. I assume it's tariff free in the FTA at the moment, but the UK could argue the higher EU subsidy means they can apply tariffs - unless the EU argue that is regressive vs the CAP perhaps?

I've no idea what the time element of the milk/diary supply chain is but with possible extra delay at the border perhaps EU diary might be non-viable or have price issues due to impacted shelf life issues - even though EU milk might enjoy a 'better' subsidy. The friction could in fact promote domestic dairy sourcing and hence force supermarkets to pay the farmers rates - or face having no source with decent shelf life. Looks like consumer prices will go up in every scenario however.

[powerstroke]

DeepEnd said:

If UK farmers suddenly have a 50% cut in subsidy, and their prices need to go up - are the overall market dynamics understood?

The UK imports only around 16% diary at the moment (98% from EU) - could domestic price shifts see that shift to favour EU farms? It was a level playing field but now the UK may chose to provide less subsidy than they used to. Could the UK apply tariffs on EU imports to protect UK farmers? Would the level playing field allow this? Would the govt even want to? Maybe - consumer prices could go up; but possibly better overall for the economy whilst not so good for those on lower incomes.

Dairy farming is one of the most efficient and competitive part of U.K. agriculture Our conditions suit it so we have a advantage ,

[DeepEnd]

"British dairy farmers obtain (or used to) over £56 million in EU direct payments which make up almost 40% of their annual profits."

If that subsidy is halved it is likely to have a significant impact on the market dynamics.

[Mortarboard]

DeepEnd said:

"British dairy farmers obtain (or used to) over £56 million in EU direct payments which make up almost 40% of their annual profits."

If that subsidy is halved it is likely to have a significant impact on the market dynamics.

And at a government level, easy enough to apply tarrifs to dairy imports. Cheese etc also.
I have to assume its allowed, if for no other resason than if CAP level subsidies arent justification enough to apply "corrective" tarriffs then what is?

Widening the field a little (pun intended), pork surely would be facing similar pressures?

And then wider still, does grape prowing attract CAP subsidies? If so, wines could be fair game for tarrifs.

M.

[stongle]

Mortarboard said:

Indeed. Spain used to devalue the peseta regularly to benefit the tourism trade.
I always thought it interesting the UK didnt take the same advantage as Germany, and join the Euro at a similarly advantageous point. With the share of trade in services, it would have paid off in spades

M.

Its entirely fascinating. I also think that the UK could have benefitted from joing the euro too. Where Germany has integrated industrial capability, we have the same in services.

My view, is not the Euro or EU is at fault, but historical fiscal flip flop and populist appeal of UK governments. We know all too well what fiscal largesse does to voting here, we are not ready to submit to transfer. Had we joined earlier and ripped the arse out of it like Germany benefitted, I actually think we'd be more willing on transfer (now). Again, our relationship with Europe is entirely driven by how well off the populace feels, or perhaps whether government is taking the piss with taxes. Had we leveraged the design flaw in the Euro we may have won out, but otherwise we maybe at 273% debt to GDP (guesses).....

Our reliance on mega loose monetary policy also works against joining (per JSF).

Edited by stongle on Wednesday 24th February 21:42

[Mortarboard]

stongle said:

Its entirely fascinating. I also think that the UK could have benefitted from joing the euro too. Where Germany has integrated industrial capability, we have the same in services.

My view, is not the Euro or EU is at fault, but historical fiscal flip flop and populist appeal of UK governments. We know all too well what fiscal largesse does to voting here, we are not ready to submit to transfer. Had we joined earlier and ripped the arse out of it like Germany benefitted, I actually think we'd be more willing on transfer (now). Again, our relationship with Europe is entirely driven by how well off the populace feels, or perhaps whether government is taking the piss with taxes. Had we leveraged the design flaw in the Euro we may have won out, but otherwise we maybe at 273% debt to GDP (guesses).....

Our reliance on mega loose monetary policy also works against joining (per JSF).

Edited by stongle on Wednesday 24th February 21:42

Or possibly would it have "overheated" london? I've no idea of the relative scale of exported services between the city and outside it.
German industry usnt quite so focussed in a single location, afaik.

M.

[Wills2]

More dreadful news today regarding farming and fishing Brexit really has screwed the poster boys of Brexit, in one piece on the news they interview a bee importer who cannot get the bees into the country he's spent 300k on them, he voted leave and said he'd been had and lied to as he said if we don't have the bees we won't have crops...

What an utter st storm the leavers have created, the sooner CV-19 is dealt with the better as that "fog" will lift and the scope of the real failure will be revealed.