Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 2)

[Vanden Saab]

Fittster said:

Oh, what a shock the fact once again turbo finds his prejudice view point puts him on the wrong side of the argument so he tries to hide behind selective quoting. Trying to show a bounce back in February, after a collapse in January of historic proportions is one of the most feeble attempts I've seen to try and hide the damage of Brexit.

Even less of a shock that you ignore the huge increase in November and December trade that pretty much cancels out the January figures as companies ordered in early as they realised there would most likely be some teething troubles with the new systems...

[sisu]

Now we can use the huge drop as a reason to show that there is growth.

[crankedup]

Fittster said:

Pet Food, another industry being damaged by Brexit.

The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) analysis reveals continuing issues for companies grappling with both Brexit and coronavirus-related issues.

The ONS’s fortnightly economic indicators survey revealed that 15% of firms said demand for their exports had crumbled away, while 38% of exporters and 45% of importers were struggling under the weight of additional paperwork.

Home delivery firm ParcelHero says Brexit has created mounting challenges for export and import companies while, at home, the High Street is also struggling.

HUGE CHALLENGES

ParcelHero’s head of consumer research, David Jinks, said: “UK importers continue to face huge challenges. According to the latest ONS economic figures, in the period March 8 to March 20, 44.8% of importers complained about the impact of additional paperwork created by Brexit; 38.5% said their costs had risen; 35.7% reported new customs tariffs had created significant challenges and 24.9% said they experienced disruption at UK borders.

“That’s a sorry picture of the realities of post-Brexit trading, with British exporters’ experiences mirroring this. 15.3% reported reduced demand for their products and services; 38.3% experienced problems because of the additional paperwork created by Brexit; 26.1% experienced rises in transport costs and over 20% reported challenges with increased customs duties.”


https://www.petbusinessworld.co.uk/news/feed/firms...

Project fear and all that...

The report also noted the very difficult trading conditions in our High Streets, how many privately owned individual pet stores will bother to re-open. Of course this situation is solely covid 19 related, be surprised if the small retailer hasn’t opened an online service to their customers, perhaps they can’t compete against the big boys. Certainly I wouldn’t want to be in High Street retailing at the moment.
As for import / export problems, this time next year should see the direction of travel with trading conditions improving or worsening. One thing is not surprising is the trading problems at the very early stage in brexit.

[turbobloke]

crankedup said:

Fittster said:

Pet Food, another industry being damaged by Brexit.

The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) analysis reveals continuing issues for companies grappling with both Brexit and coronavirus-related issues.

The ONS’s fortnightly economic indicators survey revealed that 15% of firms said demand for their exports had crumbled away, while 38% of exporters and 45% of importers were struggling under the weight of additional paperwork.

Home delivery firm ParcelHero says Brexit has created mounting challenges for export and import companies while, at home, the High Street is also struggling.

HUGE CHALLENGES

ParcelHero’s head of consumer research, David Jinks, said: “UK importers continue to face huge challenges. According to the latest ONS economic figures, in the period March 8 to March 20, 44.8% of importers complained about the impact of additional paperwork created by Brexit; 38.5% said their costs had risen; 35.7% reported new customs tariffs had created significant challenges and 24.9% said they experienced disruption at UK borders.

“That’s a sorry picture of the realities of post-Brexit trading, with British exporters’ experiences mirroring this. 15.3% reported reduced demand for their products and services; 38.3% experienced problems because of the additional paperwork created by Brexit; 26.1% experienced rises in transport costs and over 20% reported challenges with increased customs duties.”


https://www.petbusinessworld.co.uk/news/feed/firms...

Project fear and all that...

The report also noted the very difficult trading conditions in our High Streets, how many privately owned individual pet stores will bother to re-open. Of course this situation is solely covid 19 related, be surprised if the small retailer hasn’t opened an online service to their customers, perhaps they can’t compete against the big boys. Certainly I wouldn’t want to be in High Street retailing at the moment.
As for import / export problems, this time next year should see the direction of travel with trading conditions improving or worsening. One thing is not surprising is the trading problems at the very early stage in brexit.

Feb was very different to Jan and further improvements can realistically be expected as both covid and brexit continue to resolve. UK projected growth in 2021 is solid, atomistic impermanence as relevant to remainers isn't the future.

[Convert]

Vanden Saab said:

Even less of a shock that you ignore the huge increase in November and December trade that pretty much cancels out the January figures as companies ordered in early as they realised there would most likely be some teething troubles with the new systems...

Could not agree more. Lots of companies stockpiled in Nov / Dec, didn’t need to order as much in Jan.
Normal service resumed in Feb

[paul0843]

crankedup said:

Fittster said:

Pet Food, another industry being damaged by Brexit.

The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) analysis reveals continuing issues for companies grappling with both Brexit and coronavirus-related issues.

The ONS’s fortnightly economic indicators survey revealed that 15% of firms said demand for their exports had crumbled away, while 38% of exporters and 45% of importers were struggling under the weight of additional paperwork.

Home delivery firm ParcelHero says Brexit has created mounting challenges for export and import companies while, at home, the High Street is also struggling.

HUGE CHALLENGES

ParcelHero’s head of consumer research, David Jinks, said: “UK importers continue to face huge challenges. According to the latest ONS economic figures, in the period March 8 to March 20, 44.8% of importers complained about the impact of additional paperwork created by Brexit; 38.5% said their costs had risen; 35.7% reported new customs tariffs had created significant challenges and 24.9% said they experienced disruption at UK borders.

“That’s a sorry picture of the realities of post-Brexit trading, with British exporters’ experiences mirroring this. 15.3% reported reduced demand for their products and services; 38.3% experienced problems because of the additional paperwork created by Brexit; 26.1% experienced rises in transport costs and over 20% reported challenges with increased customs duties.”


https://www.petbusinessworld.co.uk/news/feed/firms...

Project fear and all that...

The report also noted the very difficult trading conditions in our High Streets, how many privately owned individual pet stores will bother to re-open. Of course this situation is solely covid 19 related, be surprised if the small retailer hasn’t opened an online service to their customers, perhaps they can’t compete against the big boys. Certainly I wouldn’t want to be in High Street retailing at the moment.
As for import / export problems, this time next year should see the direction of travel with trading conditions improving or worsening. One thing is not surprising is the trading problems at the very early stage in brexit.

I Agree with you that this time next we will see the direction of travel,and personally we are
fortunate enough to
even lock up for a year,and pick up the pieces going forward,but there was a time where we were living day to day and robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Is there a point where say X percentage of businesses going bust would make you admit that Brexit wasnt a great idea,or will it be worth it regardless?

[anonymous-user]

paul0843 said:

I Agree with you that this time next we will see the direction of travel,and personally we are
fortunate enough to
even lock up for a year,and pick up the pieces going forward,but there was a time where we were living day to day and robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Is there a point where say X percentage of businesses going bust would make you admit that Brexit wasnt a great idea,or will it be worth it regardless?

I have no idea what you were actually trying to say, but 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' is pretty much the EU's philosophy isn't it?

[paul0843]

digimeistter said:

paul0843 said:

I Agree with you that this time next we will see the direction of travel,and personally we are
fortunate enough to
even lock up for a year,and pick up the pieces going forward,but there was a time where we were living day to day and robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Is there a point where say X percentage of businesses going bust would make you admit that Brexit wasnt a great idea,or will it be worth it regardless?

I have no idea what you were actually trying to say, but 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' is pretty much the EU's philosophy isn't it?

What I have written is pretty straight forward .
Read it again,you will get there .

[anonymous-user]

paul0843 said:

digimeistter said:

paul0843 said:

I Agree with you that this time next we will see the direction of travel,and personally we are
fortunate enough to
even lock up for a year,and pick up the pieces going forward,but there was a time where we were living day to day and robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Is there a point where say X percentage of businesses going bust would make you admit that Brexit wasnt a great idea,or will it be worth it regardless?

I have no idea what you were actually trying to say, but 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' is pretty much the EU's philosophy isn't it?

What I have written is pretty straight forward .
Read it again,you will get there .

Every Peter is robbing their own grandson Paul. That's the nature of government finances almost everywhere that isn't sitting on massive oil reserve cash much larger than their national spend.

The laugh is the EU is running an external surplus to ROW entirely based on Northern State exports, this is based on an undervalued currency for the northern state exporters, if the Euro becomes a proper EU block currency with fiscal transfers at a scale that balance, the game is over.

It's all hidden in Covid financing now though.

[anonymous-user]

paul0843 said:

digimeistter said:

paul0843 said:

I Agree with you that this time next we will see the direction of travel,and personally we are
fortunate enough to
even lock up for a year,and pick up the pieces going forward,but there was a time where we were living day to day and robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Is there a point where say X percentage of businesses going bust would make you admit that Brexit wasnt a great idea,or will it be worth it regardless?

I have no idea what you were actually trying to say, but 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' is pretty much the EU's philosophy isn't it?

What I have written is pretty straight forward .
Read it again,you will get there .

I've tried to read it twice, grammar is clearly not your strong point.

[crankedup]

paul0843 said:

crankedup said:

Fittster said:

Pet Food, another industry being damaged by Brexit.

The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) analysis reveals continuing issues for companies grappling with both Brexit and coronavirus-related issues.

The ONS’s fortnightly economic indicators survey revealed that 15% of firms said demand for their exports had crumbled away, while 38% of exporters and 45% of importers were struggling under the weight of additional paperwork.

Home delivery firm ParcelHero says Brexit has created mounting challenges for export and import companies while, at home, the High Street is also struggling.

HUGE CHALLENGES

ParcelHero’s head of consumer research, David Jinks, said: “UK importers continue to face huge challenges. According to the latest ONS economic figures, in the period March 8 to March 20, 44.8% of importers complained about the impact of additional paperwork created by Brexit; 38.5% said their costs had risen; 35.7% reported new customs tariffs had created significant challenges and 24.9% said they experienced disruption at UK borders.

“That’s a sorry picture of the realities of post-Brexit trading, with British exporters’ experiences mirroring this. 15.3% reported reduced demand for their products and services; 38.3% experienced problems because of the additional paperwork created by Brexit; 26.1% experienced rises in transport costs and over 20% reported challenges with increased customs duties.”


https://www.petbusinessworld.co.uk/news/feed/firms...

Project fear and all that...

The report also noted the very difficult trading conditions in our High Streets, how many privately owned individual pet stores will bother to re-open. Of course this situation is solely covid 19 related, be surprised if the small retailer hasn’t opened an online service to their customers, perhaps they can’t compete against the big boys. Certainly I wouldn’t want to be in High Street retailing at the moment.
As for import / export problems, this time next year should see the direction of travel with trading conditions improving or worsening. One thing is not surprising is the trading problems at the very early stage in brexit.

I Agree with you that this time next we will see the direction of travel,and personally we are
fortunate enough to
even lock up for a year,and pick up the pieces going forward,but there was a time where we were living day to day and robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Is there a point where say X percentage of businesses going bust would make you admit that Brexit wasnt a great idea,or will it be worth it regardless?

Brexit was not confined to trade, much more was going on that led to brexit. I won’t insult your intelligence in listing other factors. With the Global effects of the financial crash 2008 and covid, now add brexit into the mix it will be difficult to point the finger at any one major event and say ‘that was the problem’. I have said many times, if only the Common Market had not morphed into the EU we would all be enjoying trade and freedoms that we were accustomed to.
Businesses going bust, how do we identify them as purely a casualty of brexit.
Some benefitted from our EU membership other didn’t, and that was the problem we had.

[paul0843]

digimeistter said:

paul0843 said:

digimeistter said:

paul0843 said:

I Agree with you that this time next we will see the direction of travel,and personally we are
fortunate enough to
even lock up for a year,and pick up the pieces going forward,but there was a time where we were living day to day and robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Is there a point where say X percentage of businesses going bust would make you admit that Brexit wasnt a great idea,or will it be worth it regardless?

I have no idea what you were actually trying to say, but 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' is pretty much the EU's philosophy isn't it?

What I have written is pretty straight forward .
Read it again,you will get there .

I've tried to read it twice, grammar is clearly not your strong point.

And comprehension definitely not yours.

[anonymous-user]

So what are your thoughts on Target 2, or are we on 3 now?

Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 17th April 21:27

[Murph7355]

Fittster said:

... while 38% of exporters and 45% of importers were struggling under the weight of additional paperwork.....

What are the 62%/55% doing that the 38%/45% aren't?

[turbobloke]

Murph7355 said:

Fittster said:

... while 38% of exporters and 45% of importers were struggling under the weight of additional paperwork.....

What are the 62%/55% doing that the 38%/45% aren't?

Good question, a majority not struggling suggests...something.

[JagLover]

extraT said:

Morning. Genuinely interested in hearing (civilised) thoughts from the pro-Brexiteers in this thread.

This is a real world scenario that we have just gone through.

I’m British married to an Austrian and we have a children’s clothes and accessories store here in Austria. Because of the “sweetness” of the brands and my Britishness, we have always tried to have a few British brands in our shops. The customers like them too. Not many brands, but a few, like I say.

This morning was the final straw and we will not be ordering British brands again - or at least until there is clarity and costs are brought into line with the EU.

We had ordered a small consignment of clothes and accessories from a lovely, family owned supplier. I don’t think they do huge volumes but we are a regular customer so I know our custom means a lot to them. Or at least it feels that way. On a 600euro order, we’ve been hit with almost 200euro customs charge.

My wife and I will speak to the supplier to tell them either:

They reduce the customs charges off their invoices in future

Or

We will not order from them again.

Either way, Brexit will hit this supplier and they will lose money.

As I said, this is a real world example of Brexit affecting small companies from just this morning. I’ve tried to present both sides (ours as an EU based business and the UK supplier- and they really aren’t a big business either);I’m genuinely interested to hear reasonable thoughts on how trade is handled (and not the typical bluster this thread brings).

Somewhat late to this but it is the small scale stuff that isn't worth bothering with anymore when you are no longer part of the same market, not with the same structure at any rate.

To take a real world example I worked on a client that had around £1.5 million of sales in the USA, to scores of different customers. They couldn't feasible supply all those customers directly so they had a USA subsidiary (set up in Texas). They shipped the product by the pallet load to the warehouse in Texas and then that subsidiary supplied all the US companies. They would then be dealing with all the paperwork and charges not the end customer.

It is an inevitable consequence of no longer being part of the same market and whether it has any material effects remains to be seen. Certainly trade bounced back in February to close to the former level.

[sunbeam alpine]

JagLover said:

Somewhat late to this but it is the small scale stuff that isn't worth bothering with anymore...

This is where I absolutely disagree. I've always viewed the effect of Brexit more as a "death of a thousand cuts" than a massive crash.

The big challenges will always get sorted as they are too important to ignore. Individually, the "small scale stuff" to which you refer will also add up to a significant amount.

Brexit is costing my very small company about €2500 extra per month, and me personally about €500 per month in additional costs related to the loss of my personal bank accounts in the UK.

Of greater concern is the movement in the Pound since the beginning of the year. 75% of the products we import from the UK are agricultural commodity products, with no opportunity to add value, so the moment the price is too high, sales drop off. I can't really complain as we've actually done very well over the past few years with the low pound helping us to get into markets where we previously didn't stand a chance.

[turbobloke]

sunbeam alpine said:

JagLover said:

Somewhat late to this but it is the small scale stuff that isn't worth bothering with anymore...

This is where I absolutely disagree. I've always viewed the effect of Brexit more as a "death of a thousand cuts" than a massive crash.

Pure myth. There isn't long enough for that to work.

As seen on this thread, businesses are working out / have worked out what needs to be done 'new paperwork' style. A few may go, to be replaced also over time. It's business, that's what happens.

As they did afrer EEC accession.

As they did with more complex EU VAT rules (triangulation).

Sorry to disappoint you.

[JagLover]

sunbeam alpine said:

JagLover said:

Somewhat late to this but it is the small scale stuff that isn't worth bothering with anymore...

This is where I absolutely disagree. I've always viewed the effect of Brexit more as a "death of a thousand cuts" than a massive crash.

I think you misinterpreted my post.

I was referring to the fact that small trading transactions across borders may not be worth doing anymore. Hence why I referenced a client who set up an American distributor to get around the exact same issue when selling to the USA.

Such small trading transactions might well add up to a considerable amount overall. The success, or failure, of Brexit however is not determined by trade with the EU remaining exactly the same once we have left the single market. After all the importance of the EU as a percentage of our exports had been in decline for two decades and adding new barriers is hardly likely to stop that trend.

The success will depend on what we do with our new freedom and the economic and social consequences of that.

[Jazzer77]

TakInG bAcK CoNtRoL.



https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/ari...