Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 2)

[citizensm1th]

Murph7355 said:

Moreover, how many 3rd nations supply shellfish without the filtering stuff (as an example). The "unknowns" weren't really that "unknown", it seems to me.

Would the EU have dropped their protectionist mechanism (that is all it can be - it has bugger all to do with quality concerns/citizens health) just for us? Very doubtful in the circumstances.

"F*ck business" has to be taken in context. And it is most definitely not the approach I see in the main on here. But nor is "spoon feed business like a goose gets spoon fed" despite one or two at the extremes seemingly being of this view.

But when your parties cor usp has been the party for business to have a leader for that party say fk business in any context is a bit of an own goal.

And I think quite a few of the self employed are not feeling the love from the tories right now

[Murph7355]

bhstewie said:

This is more of the BS we need. More and less

citizensm1th said:

But when your parties cor usp has been the party for business to have a leader for that party say fk business in any context is a bit of an own goal.

And I think quite a few of the self employed are not feeling the love from the tories right now

To a point I agree with you. Though if I'd have been in charge over the last 12mths a lot more self-interest groups would have been told to "fk off, get a grip and get some contextual pragmatism". As BS will attest to, I've long been a critic of the govt's ability to communicate and this is no different - the sentiment, in context, was sound. The execution perhaps unwise/poor.

I'm self-employed. I've had no issues with previous govt's tightening the rules and, again, have been positive towards the way Osbourne went about it (for example - post-referendum I felt he was a toad. So maybe it was Danny Alexander I should note my agreement with).

The government's ham fisted way on IR35 now is very poor and will have unintended consequences. If it nets materially, measurably more taxation (NB not just income tax or, more specifically, employers' NI....but overall tax receipts) I will eat my hat. It's a bullst implementation of something whose need is questionable and likely outcome even more so.

That, however, is not my biggest concern over the current govt's financial meddling. Sunak has been doubly ham fisted on the pandemic and I fear he has not got one clue on how to dig us out of the mess that he has created. I have concerns that tomorrow's budget will feel more like a Labour one, and that may cause pause for thought at the next GE.

The only problem with that being similar to the last one - Sunak may well prove to be the biggest issue of this whole pandemic....but it's hard to see Labour policy (if they ever get some) being as palatable as even that. Sunak knows this, and therein lies the problem with having no opposition to speak of.

[bitchstewie]

Murph7355 said:

bhstewie said:

This is more of the BS we need. More and less

Shockingly Murph you won't find me sticking up for the EU often you just seem to take pointing out the stshow of a job our Government are doing as sticking up for the EU.

I criticise the Government I'm blinkered.

You criticise them it's balanced and objective.

I post that photo it's funny because it's the EU.

I post this video it's "grrrr Boris".

Who's the one who's really got blinkers?

[wc98]

JeffreyD said:

Any idea what the availability of investment capital for the shellfish industry is?

If it's anything like the ones I know about it's very concentrated and not necessarily easy to get your hands on.

a friend that owns a (rapidly) growing shellfish export business is/was the poster boy (literally posters in bank branches) for one of the business loan schemes a bank offered up here. if you have a decent business plan and can demonstrate competency in what you do it doesn't seem to be a problem. he is a good example of a modern businessman in a traditional industry, multi lingual,as hard a physical grafter as is possible to be ,intelligent and constantly on the ball looking for openings and improvements, particularly in emerging/growing markets a bit further afield than the traditional export destinations.

[bitchstewie]

wc98 said:

a friend that owns a (rapidly) growing shellfish export business is/was the poster boy (literally posters in bank branches) for one of the business loan schemes a bank offered up here. if you have a decent business plan and can demonstrate competency in what you do it doesn't seem to be a problem. he is a good example of a modern businessman in a traditional industry, multi lingual,as hard a physical grafter as is possible to be ,intelligent and constantly on the ball looking for openings and improvements, particularly in emerging/growing markets a bit further afield than the traditional export destinations.

I don't run a business so this is a genuine question.

If you'd gone to the bank in the middle of last year and said "I want to borrow a ton of money to buy equipment that I have no idea if I need and that I may never use just so that I'm prepared for any eventuality on Jan 1st" how would banks have treated it?

[crankedup]

bhstewie said:

crankedup said:

Now you are being deliberately obtuse and frankly ridiculous, I thought better than that of you tbh.

You've criticised struggling businesses and said the people running them are stupid for not planning for a total unknown.

All I've done is ask what you would have done.

That doesn't seem ridiculous but hey ho.

Don’t put words into my mouth I cannot help what interpretation you place onto my posts, but I have to inform you that you are wrong. I am merely pointing out the obvious to you. Maybe try and engage instead of acting like a fool

[bitchstewie]

crankedup said:

Don’t put words into my mouth I cannot help what interpretation you place onto my posts, but I have to inform you that you are wrong. I am merely pointing out the obvious to you. Maybe try and engage instead of acting like a fool

crankedup said:

Can’t say that a business no longer able to sell his bivalves is causing me loss of sleep at night, especially when the bloke was taking good profits for years, which was great, but failed to invest in his business, which is stupid.

How did you mean it? (sorry Murph)

[crankedup]

JeffreyD said:

crankedup said:

I do not know when the grant aid will be live, I do know the industry received £32million last year which is in addition to the £100million grant package. IIRC the grant package will be over a five year period and use will be principle to help modernise the fishing fleet.
I might add that fishing would not have been my chosen job in life and I feel that they have been badly treated by U.K. Governments for decades.

The 32 million was Covid related - as per many other sectors.

as far as you and I can tell the £100 million is at this stage just words.

Why would any business man invest his own cash (or take on debt) to build new purification centres when the promise of free cash money is around the corner?

Well If the business can keep afloat whilst waiting for grant aid which may not be forthcoming, I would say that is a very risky business strategy. I said previously that an investment, if it were me and my business, I would invest enough to keep it floating. Go back and read my previous posts.

[crankedup]

wc98 said:

JeffreyD said:

Any idea what the availability of investment capital for the shellfish industry is?

If it's anything like the ones I know about it's very concentrated and not necessarily easy to get your hands on.

a friend that owns a (rapidly) growing shellfish export business is/was the poster boy (literally posters in bank branches) for one of the business loan schemes a bank offered up here. if you have a decent business plan and can demonstrate competency in what you do it doesn't seem to be a problem. he is a good example of a modern businessman in a traditional industry, multi lingual,as hard a physical grafter as is possible to be ,intelligent and constantly on the ball looking for openings and improvements, particularly in emerging/growing markets a bit further afield than the traditional export destinations.

Oh don’t tell our remainer pals anything that makes us ones sense you will only baffle them I’ve been through the business plan scenario and it fell on gasps of disbelief.

[turbobloke]

bhstewie said:

crankedup said:

Don’t put words into my mouth I cannot help what interpretation you place onto my posts, but I have to inform you that you are wrong. I am merely pointing out the obvious to you. Maybe try and engage instead of acting like a fool

crankedup said:

Can’t say that a business no longer able to sell his bivalves is causing me loss of sleep at night, especially when the bloke was taking good profits for years, which was great, but failed to invest in his business, which is stupid.

How did you mean it? (sorry Murph)

Lovin' the humour but crankedup makes a good point or two.

[crankedup]

bhstewie said:

crankedup said:

Don’t put words into my mouth I cannot help what interpretation you place onto my posts, but I have to inform you that you are wrong. I am merely pointing out the obvious to you. Maybe try and engage instead of acting like a fool

crankedup said:

Can’t say that a business no longer able to sell his bivalves is causing me loss of sleep at night, especially when the bloke was taking good profits for years, which was great, but failed to invest in his business, which is stupid.

How did you mean it? (sorry Murph)

Oh dear did I really say that! well I suppose he was stupid then for all the reasons that I have said. Let’s be honest, his the business that has lost out, blame the Government is fine but that doesn’t save the business. I bet he wishes he had invested, dispite what he may say now.

[DeepEnd]

Someone's idea of a brexit benefit:

https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/13667499...

Imagine putting that in public on twitter.

[wc98]

crankedup said:

Fittster said:

crankedup said:

JeffreyD said:

crankedup said:

This is something that I struggle with, if I’m running a successful business selling shellfish to the export market and making a decent living. Seeing distinct threats to the business on the horizon, surely sit down and look at the possible scenarios and how to circumnavigate around each possible scenario. Sitting back and doing nothing seems crazy, and yet that is what has happened here it seems.
The Government announced the availability of grant aid to the industry for the purpose of modernising the fleet.
Under those circumstances why on earth sit back and do nothing. Just seems crazy to me.

Any idea what the availability of investment capital for the shellfish industry is?

If it's anything like the ones I know about it's very concentrated and not necessarily easy to get your hands on.

Obviously, as I have previously mentioned, put forward your business plan including the grant aid application purpose and drive through the process. The availability will be subject to the demand on high quality applications. If you have a strong application then clearly you are in with a chance of winning the grant sought. It’s not confetti but is available to fishermen who demonstrate a good business case, after all it is public money.

A shell fisherman explains the difficulties with this approach:

"A number of people are suggesting myself and others in the shellfish industry have been lazy, stupid (or both) for not being ‘prepared’ for the carnage Brexit has caused on the shellfish export industry. If we predicted this, why weren’t we ready?

Many small shellfish businesses don’t have the money needed to build a depuration plant. £100k cost for a small plant wouldn’t provide the depuration capacity some companies need. Add a zero to their costs to reach capacity levels. If they did have the investment...

They probably don’t have the land to build on. Ideally you need your plant close to where you harvest your shellfish. Where I live the land is under marine protection making it a mountain to climb if you wanted to build on it. If you do have the money and land...

Your shellfish might be at risk of dying after depuration and long delays at port. Shellfish can struggle with the stress of being depurated so are relaid, unpurified, in A grade waters in the EU so they can be sold straight out of the sea. They are depurated too but...

We come back in a circle; you need large capacity to ensure the shellfish isn’t stressed thus reducing shellfish mortality. If you have a purification plant and shellfish which is happy during depuration then surely you’re on to a winning formula?

We have a depuration plant next to the water where our oysters grow. Our oysters are purified in temperature controlled conditions so they are happy and have a long shelf life. What’s the problem then?

The Brexit deal is almost the same as a no deal; I can’t export our product because the costs associated with the paperwork and delays has pushed our prices up so we are no longer competitive with our EU oyster neighbours (Ireland, France, Denmark)

We have sold 0 oysters to Europe in 2021 because our Govt failed to sort the procedures involved with unpurified shellfish and the paperwork needed for purified means we are now too expensive. If we kept our prices the same we would make huge losses

The ‘oven ready deal’ which would make us a ‘global Britain’ has shrunk our market options and made the UK inward looking. I was prepared and have adapted the business as much as I can. No preparation was possible for Govt incompetence and negligence though.


https://twitter.com/HawardTom/status/1366084569955...

I would rather read from an industry wide perspective than one business fishermen. However I am sorry to say it does sound like this particular business has failed owing to political and legislative changes.
BTW thanks for posting it made interesting but sad reading.

i'm struggling with that example provided by fittster, something not right there. plenty other third countries sell into the uk and eu, canada springs to mind. given the distance the product has to travel how can the canadians supply something at a profit a uk producer can't ?

[DeepEnd]

Steve Hard Man of Brexit Baker and chums pick up their pen to warn about killer EU chickens amongst other things.

Eau No, what a 'cad'!

https://twitter.com/HornbyIona/status/136667116101...

Why weren't the ERG flagging this up as a problem back in Dec? Incompetent. They haven't even got the gumption to blame the fishing industry for not planning for this outcome.

[wc98]

bhstewie said:

I don't run a business so this is a genuine question.

If you'd gone to the bank in the middle of last year and said "I want to borrow a ton of money to buy equipment that I have no idea if I need and that I may never use just so that I'm prepared for any eventuality on Jan 1st" how would banks have treated it?

neither do i but i will hazard a guess and say it wouldn't have received a good response. you make a good point regarding how the lack of clarity in the lead up to the turn of the year made it difficult to plan for,spending large sums of money on the possibility rather than certainty of something happening would certainly be a gamble. i will be paying said friend a visit this week for a blether, will ask him his view.

it would have been interesting to see how this would have played out without covid and a commensurate number of angry non receivers of shellfish product on mainland europe to match the uk suppliers, i suspect the problem would already have been addressed but we will never know.

[wc98]

crankedup said:

Oh don’t tell our remainer pals anything that makes us ones sense you will only baffle them I’ve been through the business plan scenario and it fell on gasps of disbelief.

if i was in the oyster business at the moment ,if possible i would have everyone including the family dog on furlough to help buy some time . good thing with oysters that haven't been harvested is they will sit there quite happy until they are.

[Murph7355]

bhstewie said:

I don't run a business so this is a genuine question.

If you'd gone to the bank in the middle of last year and said "I want to borrow a ton of money to buy equipment that I have no idea if I need and that I may never use just so that I'm prepared for any eventuality on Jan 1st" how would banks have treated it?

If you'd put it just like that, maybe not so well.

But businesses sink money into contingency plans all the time.

"I'm building a filtration plant as it looks highly likely that no matter what the FTA outcome it's going to be needed in talking to my non-EU colleagues. And I might try and corner the market on filtration in my area as everybody else seems to be banking on the referendum being overturned" might have elicited a different response

bhstewie said:

Shockingly Murph you won't find me sticking up for the EU often you just seem to take pointing out the stshow of a job our Government are doing as sticking up for the EU.

I criticise the Government I'm blinkered.

You criticise them it's balanced and objective.

I post that photo it's funny because it's the EU.

I post this video it's "grrrr Boris".

Who's the one who's really got blinkers?

I don't recall seeing that video. But I grant you I have Grrr Borised you many times - so many I can't generally be arsed clicking on the links/videos you post when doing a Grrr Boris because the chances of finding anything amusing I've judged to be very slim. Not because of the subject matter, just because, well Grrr Boris.

Post a good image like the Sarkozy one and I'll chapeau you.

But it is worth noting that Sarkozy is not "EU". He is an ex president of France. And like all French deserves ridicule by the English, and likewise in return. The world will stop on its axis not through trivia like Brexit, but when the French and English genuinely get along

[roger.mellie]

crankedup said:

Well If the business can keep afloat whilst waiting for grant aid which may not be forthcoming, I would say that is a very risky business strategy. I said previously that an investment, if it were me and my business, I would invest enough to keep it floating. Go back and read my previous posts.

I do run a business, not on my own although I’ve had the recent unasked for misfortune of becoming CEO. I’ve a board that requires reporting to and it can get very messy with so many egos (including mine) in the same room but more often than not it’s quite congenial. IOW I’m well used to being challenged and occasionally knocked back on what may or may not be good business.

Brexit is almost irrelevant in my day job, but I always view people as a bit of a fraud when they’re unaffected and suggest others should just suck it up (not accusing you of that). Would you suggest people throw good money after bad if their business case has become non viable due to brexit? I think you’d agree that’s a no. It’s not as simple as suggesting losers are just losers.

[JeffreyD]

wc98 said:

a friend that owns a (rapidly) growing shellfish export business is/was the poster boy (literally posters in bank branches) for one of the business loan schemes a bank offered up here. if you have a decent business plan and can demonstrate competency in what you do it doesn't seem to be a problem. he is a good example of a modern businessman in a traditional industry, multi lingual,as hard a physical grafter as is possible to be ,intelligent and constantly on the ball looking for openings and improvements, particularly in emerging/growing markets a bit further afield than the traditional export destinations.

Any insight as to how the shelfish issue is impacting his business?

Would be good to see the other side of the coin.

[JeffreyD]

crankedup said:

Oh don’t tell our remainer pals anything that makes us ones sense you will only baffle them I’ve been through the business plan scenario and it fell on gasps of disbelief.

Always interested in hearing the facts on both sides.

Edited the post as I was being unnecessarily argumentative.

Edited by JeffreyD on Tuesday 2nd March 21:24