Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 2)

Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 2)

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DeltonaS

3,707 posts

138 months

Tuesday 20th April 2021
quotequote all
The IMF 2050 forecast doesn't take into account the independence of Scotland and N.Ireland.

paulrockliffe

15,701 posts

227 months

Tuesday 20th April 2021
quotequote all
DeltonaS said:
The IMF 2050 forecast doesn't take into account the independence of Scotland and N.Ireland.
Yes, that will put the UK a good bit higher up won't it.

crankedup

25,764 posts

243 months

Tuesday 20th April 2021
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
sisu said:
That just illustrated how fast the emerging markets are predicted to grow. No question about that and the aging and decline of G7 countries which the UK is a part of. If you were Turkish you would be buoyant over the 3.5% predicted growth.

To be fair, given the size of our country and population, I am delighted that we remain top 10 under those forecasts.

If anything it shows how effective we are as an economy.

I also think that China will substantially undershoot in the long term - did you hear that their house prices are twice the income multiple ours are? Scary stuff.
Surprising in the sense that we are no longer looked upon as a manufacturing Country.

turbobloke

103,950 posts

260 months

Tuesday 20th April 2021
quotequote all
crankedup said:
loafer123 said:
sisu said:
That just illustrated how fast the emerging markets are predicted to grow. No question about that and the aging and decline of G7 countries which the UK is a part of. If you were Turkish you would be buoyant over the 3.5% predicted growth.

To be fair, given the size of our country and population, I am delighted that we remain top 10 under those forecasts.

If anything it shows how effective we are as an economy.

I also think that China will substantially undershoot in the long term - did you hear that their house prices are twice the income multiple ours are? Scary stuff.
Surprising in the sense that we are no longer looked upon as a manufacturing Country.
And curious.

With annual output of £192 billion the UK is the 9th largest manufacturing nation in the world (2019/20, Santander / Make UK analysis).

Sway

26,275 posts

194 months

Tuesday 20th April 2021
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
crankedup said:
loafer123 said:
sisu said:
That just illustrated how fast the emerging markets are predicted to grow. No question about that and the aging and decline of G7 countries which the UK is a part of. If you were Turkish you would be buoyant over the 3.5% predicted growth.

To be fair, given the size of our country and population, I am delighted that we remain top 10 under those forecasts.

If anything it shows how effective we are as an economy.

I also think that China will substantially undershoot in the long term - did you hear that their house prices are twice the income multiple ours are? Scary stuff.
Surprising in the sense that we are no longer looked upon as a manufacturing Country.
And curious.

With annual output of £192 billion the UK is the 9th largest manufacturing nation in the world (2019/20, Santander / Make UK analysis).
That's an optics thing.

We're world leaders at specialist, high value manufacturing - and also efficient automotive production. Of course, there's lots of other sub-sectors we have businesses engaged in, but they're generally small beans in comparison even aggregated.

Both have much fewer workers than the old days, so a smaller percentage of the population are "factory workers".

turbobloke

103,950 posts

260 months

Tuesday 20th April 2021
quotequote all
Sway said:
turbobloke said:
crankedup said:
loafer123 said:
sisu said:
That just illustrated how fast the emerging markets are predicted to grow. No question about that and the aging and decline of G7 countries which the UK is a part of. If you were Turkish you would be buoyant over the 3.5% predicted growth.

To be fair, given the size of our country and population, I am delighted that we remain top 10 under those forecasts.

If anything it shows how effective we are as an economy.

I also think that China will substantially undershoot in the long term - did you hear that their house prices are twice the income multiple ours are? Scary stuff.
Surprising in the sense that we are no longer looked upon as a manufacturing Country.
And curious.

With annual output of £192 billion the UK is the 9th largest manufacturing nation in the world (2019/20, Santander / Make UK analysis).
That's an optics thing.

We're world leaders at specialist, high value manufacturing - and also efficient automotive production. Of course, there's lots of other sub-sectors we have businesses engaged in, but they're generally small beans in comparison even aggregated.

Both have much fewer workers than the old days, so a smaller percentage of the population are "factory workers".
Still top ten, good news.

crankedup

25,764 posts

243 months

Tuesday 20th April 2021
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
Sway said:
turbobloke said:
crankedup said:
loafer123 said:
sisu said:
That just illustrated how fast the emerging markets are predicted to grow. No question about that and the aging and decline of G7 countries which the UK is a part of. If you were Turkish you would be buoyant over the 3.5% predicted growth.

To be fair, given the size of our country and population, I am delighted that we remain top 10 under those forecasts.

If anything it shows how effective we are as an economy.

I also think that China will substantially undershoot in the long term - did you hear that their house prices are twice the income multiple ours are? Scary stuff.
Surprising in the sense that we are no longer looked upon as a manufacturing Country.
And curious.

With annual output of £192 billion the UK is the 9th largest manufacturing nation in the world (2019/20, Santander / Make UK analysis).
That's an optics thing.

We're world leaders at specialist, high value manufacturing - and also efficient automotive production. Of course, there's lots of other sub-sectors we have businesses engaged in, but they're generally small beans in comparison even aggregated.

Both have much fewer workers than the old days, so a smaller percentage of the population are "factory workers".
Still top ten, good news.
Great news and forecast for sure. As a Nation we will never be competitive manufacturing low value widgets against the might of China and emerging economies. As mentioned our strength is in high quality production at high value. Asian Countries love tweed so niche markets can provide good returns.

sisu

2,580 posts

173 months

Tuesday 20th April 2021
quotequote all
Here is the larger scorecard or wedgie board, I don't see Britain pulling away from its nemesis France either. Australia would be a better example of things going Mad Max. Russia apparently is as stable as a rock..


slow_poke

1,855 posts

234 months

Tuesday 20th April 2021
quotequote all
paulrockliffe said:
DeltonaS said:
The IMF 2050 forecast doesn't take into account the independence of Scotland and N.Ireland.
Yes, that will put the UK a good bit higher up won't it.
There won't be a UK without Scotland & NI.

Murph7355

37,713 posts

256 months

Tuesday 20th April 2021
quotequote all
sisu said:
...I don't see Britain pulling away from its nemesis France either...
Purely looking at that table (another case of "we'll see" really) you need to go to Specsavers wink

Fittster

20,120 posts

213 months

crankedup

25,764 posts

243 months

Tuesday 20th April 2021
quotequote all
Fittster said:
Petrol was £1.09 lt June 2016.

Iminquarantine

2,168 posts

44 months

Wednesday 21st April 2021
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
To be fair, given the size of our country and population, I am delighted that we remain top 10 under those forecasts.

If anything it shows how effective we are as an economy.

I also think that China will substantially undershoot in the long term - did you hear that their house prices are twice the income multiple ours are? Scary stuff.
I think this is a bit like saying the Earth is the 5th biggest planet in the solar system, or the biggest rocky planet.

It is up there on the league table, but in reality it is dwarfed by the largest.

California’s economy is the same size as that of the entire U.K. The EU economy is 6x larger than the U.K. economy.

The U.K. has left a heavyweight bloc and become one of the larger single economies in the world, but which is still small enough to be the rule taking football player by bigger competitors.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

198 months

Wednesday 21st April 2021
quotequote all
Iminquarantine said:
I think this is a bit like saying the Earth is the 5th biggest planet in the solar system, or the biggest rocky planet.

It is up there on the league table, but in reality it is dwarfed by the largest.

California’s economy is the same size as that of the entire U.K. The EU economy is 6x larger than the U.K. economy.

The U.K. has left a heavyweight bloc and become one of the larger single economies in the world, but which is still small enough to be the rule taking football player by bigger competitors.
I didn’t know the EU was a country / clearly the plan and the desire for remainders.

Nickgnome

8,277 posts

89 months

Wednesday 21st April 2021
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
Iminquarantine said:
I think this is a bit like saying the Earth is the 5th biggest planet in the solar system, or the biggest rocky planet.

It is up there on the league table, but in reality it is dwarfed by the largest.

California’s economy is the same size as that of the entire U.K. The EU economy is 6x larger than the U.K. economy.

The U.K. has left a heavyweight bloc and become one of the larger single economies in the world, but which is still small enough to be the rule taking football player by bigger competitors.
I didn’t know the EU was a country / clearly the plan and the desire for remainders.
He said economy did he not. A fully federal Europe is hopefully the route they will take complete with their own defence force.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

198 months

Wednesday 21st April 2021
quotequote all
Nickgnome said:
Welshbeef said:
Iminquarantine said:
I think this is a bit like saying the Earth is the 5th biggest planet in the solar system, or the biggest rocky planet.

It is up there on the league table, but in reality it is dwarfed by the largest.

California’s economy is the same size as that of the entire U.K. The EU economy is 6x larger than the U.K. economy.

The U.K. has left a heavyweight bloc and become one of the larger single economies in the world, but which is still small enough to be the rule taking football player by bigger competitors.
I didn’t know the EU was a country / clearly the plan and the desire for remainders.
He said economy did he not. A fully federal Europe is hopefully the route they will take complete with their own defence force.
We were talking about where each country sits in the league table.

Next we will be grouping Asiapac EMEA etc
However interesting that the relative GROWTH of the economies isn’t discussed ie the slowing of EU vs rest of world.

DeltonaS

3,707 posts

138 months

Wednesday 21st April 2021
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
However interesting that the relative GROWTH of the economies isn’t discussed ie the slowing of EU vs rest of world.
You really have no clue about economics do you.

It's the same for the UK and USA, you can Google why that's the case.


Nickgnome

8,277 posts

89 months

Wednesday 21st April 2021
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
We were talking about where each country sits in the league table.

Next we will be grouping Asiapac EMEA etc
However interesting that the relative GROWTH of the economies isn’t discussed ie the slowing of EU vs rest of world.
You can be selective if you wish but the Eu is recognised as a single trading block as can be evidenced by the requirement for the UK to negotiate and agreement with them. Not 27 separate ones.

Relatively speaking emerging economies will always grow faster. Bigger populations and more scope for industrialisation and efficiency improvements.

crankedup

25,764 posts

243 months

Wednesday 21st April 2021
quotequote all
Nickgnome said:
Welshbeef said:
We were talking about where each country sits in the league table.

Next we will be grouping Asiapac EMEA etc
However interesting that the relative GROWTH of the economies isn’t discussed ie the slowing of EU vs rest of world.
You can be selective if you wish but the Eu is recognised as a single trading block as can be evidenced by the requirement for the UK to negotiate and agreement with them. Not 27 separate ones.

Relatively speaking emerging economies will always grow faster. Bigger populations and more scope for industrialisation and efficiency improvements.
The Countries considered to be the emerging economies,those are the Countries which we are busy negotiating our new trading deals with. We didn’t want to be reliant upon the EC to give us permission for this but seek out and agree those deals as an independent Nation. That’s yet another of the major reasons for our EU departure.

Sway

26,275 posts

194 months

Wednesday 21st April 2021
quotequote all
Nickgnome said:
Welshbeef said:
We were talking about where each country sits in the league table.

Next we will be grouping Asiapac EMEA etc
However interesting that the relative GROWTH of the economies isn’t discussed ie the slowing of EU vs rest of world.
You can be selective if you wish but the Eu is recognised as a single trading block as can be evidenced by the requirement for the UK to negotiate and agreement with them. Not 27 separate ones.

Relatively speaking emerging economies will always grow faster. Bigger populations and more scope for industrialisation and efficiency improvements.
A Trading Bloc is not a fiscal union.

Only fiscal unions are "economies". Hence the TPP trading bloc is never talked about in these terms.
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