How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]

[ooid]

Flooble said:

3) If there is more WFH, falling into the house at midnight after an hour+ on the train isn't so bad if the day after is a WFH day so you can roll out of bed five minutes before your first meeting.

So that said, I could see why those would previously go for flats might choose to also stay out in the sticks. Which will inevitably increase the prices of houses.

Will there be enough people who still want a flat near to the city centre? Or are we going to have a badly distorted market where anyone with the money will be bidding up houses to new heights and flats will be left unwanted (or maybe converted back into houses?)

Not necessarily. WFH will be more like "Flexible working". Do not underestimate the flats, I know many people who sold their big semi or detached houses and moved into flats. They are convenient, if it's managed properly, and located ideally, really good value. Especially if you have good neighbours and community much better than a house. When you own a house, there is always something need doing/fixing, usually a hassle if you have no time.

[dmahon]

kingston12 said:

A commenter on The Times article about the policy put it quite well: “As a multiple home owner I’m always tremendously supportive of measures to help our young people inflate the value of my assets.”

I definitely agree that they’ll need to do something else to keep things moving upwards, but this will have the desired effect for now.

The commenter is right. Thanks Rishi,

With this and another stamp duty holiday and people in professional jobs sitting on saved cash and looking to upgrade their living situations, it's going to add kerosene onto the booming housing market.

[loafer123]

dmahon said:

The commenter is right. Thanks Rishi,

With this and another stamp duty holiday and people in professional jobs sitting on saved cash and looking to upgrade their living situations, it's going to add kerosene onto the booming housing market.

If they are sitting on saved cash, they probably won’t need this policy.

[OzzyR1]

Leicester Loyal said:

DickP said:

That feels like it’s going to put people like me at a further disadvantage now than before, and will drive prices even higher again. All because I’ve tried to save hard to get to as near 20% deposit that I could.

I was hoping that scheme wasn’t going to be introduced until a year or two down the line.

Maybe I shouldn’t have bothered and spent my money on more lifestyle things, as it sounding I would have been better off for it.

Same for me mate, got my 25% deposit and now this.

Just kick in the teeth after kick in the teeth constantly, everything I'm saving ends up getting eaten up straight away in rising house prices.

If you've both got a 20-25% deposit then it shouldn't affect you too much if you buy a property in the near future.

With that level of deposit, you will also likely benefit from lower mortgage %'s than the folks who take up the 95% offer. Even with Govt backing, I reckon 95% LTV will be 4%+.

Just get in there quick in case prices are pushed upwards again - which seems likely,

[Leicester Loyal]

OzzyR1 said:

If you've both got a 20-25% deposit then it shouldn't affect you too much if you buy a property in the near future.

With that level of deposit, you will also likely benefit from lower mortgage %'s than the folks who take up the 95% offer. Even with Govt backing, I reckon 95% LTV will be 4%+.

Just get in there quick in case prices are pushed upwards again - which seems likely,

Already organising viewings for this week mate, can't be arsed to wait any longer tbh. I honestly think they'll be pushed up another few percent in the next 6 months.

[Flooble]

The only certainty is that no-one knows!

[ooid]

Leicester Loyal said:

Already organising viewings for this week mate, can't be arsed to wait any longer tbh. I honestly think they'll be pushed up another few percent in the next 6 months.

Are you renting now? If so, even in the worst case scenario you won't be paying any rent, and that's a big + (unless you are not over-stretching your budget).

[Macron]

I've left Bristol, I sold two of these new. It wasn't cheap in 2015, but if it makes the new price I'll be raising an eyebrow...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

[Flooble]

I'll never get my head round the prices in Bath/Bristol. It's basically a terrace with a loft conversion

[Pit Pony]

Macron said:

I've left Bristol, I sold two of these new. It wasn't cheap in 2015, but if it makes the new price I'll be raising an eyebrow...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

One parking space ? I sigh. At that price, I would need 3.

I've counted the rooms and It woukd be perfect as a HMO. I'm thinking 6 or 7 bedrooms. 8 If we cut the lounge into 2. 9 if we put a camper van in the parking space. 10 if we put a shed in the garden.

Says it's close to a university.

[ooid]

Beyond parking spaces, living in very close proximity to neighbours always a worry, unless it is a super-budget property!!

[okgo]

Flooble said:

I'll never get my head round the prices in Bath/Bristol. It's basically a terrace with a loft conversion

Bristol/Bath (exception of Royal Cres) look genuinely cheap for amazing property for anyone coming from London, and it's still possible to get back here for work if you need - of course there's a growing scene in Bristol for tech jobs etc, but I imagine London money buys 9/10 expensive properties.

[kingston12]

Macron said:

I've left Bristol, I sold two of these new. It wasn't cheap in 2015, but if it makes the new price I'll be raising an eyebrow...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

Tripling in value in 20 years is pretty amazing, especially if they were brand new in 2001, meaning that price would have a bit of new build premium built in.

[anonymous-user]

I predict that once these government backed 95% mortgages are available the market is going to go mental. We will just be out of lockdown, the weather will be better, people will have saved money over the last 12 months and suddenly they have the £20K required for the deposit.

I was looking for a property in 2014 and the process was

1)Every house is an open house inspection.
2)You get there and there are 20 other couples all looking around the house.
3)Everyone is looking at everyone else and thinking "fk, if we don't buy a house soon we will never get one"
4)The estate agent stands in the middle of the room and announces "We have just had a full asking price offer from someone who has not even viewed the property. It is now going to sealed bids"
5)At the end of the viewing everybody leaves and walks to the next house as a group.
6)You get talking to an agent and he informs you of a house that is not yet on the market as yet but he might be able to arrange a viewing that afternoon.
7)You view the house and offer full asking as you leave
8)You get a call saying that there were three full asking price offers over the weekend on that house so it is going to sealed bids.

I can see prices rising 10% next year once this comes in.

[richardxjr]

When's the return of resi interest only then

Also, seeing a lot of ads about equity release (might be because I am reaching that age). Can't help thinking that's a future mis-selling scandal bound to happen?

[NickCQ]

Joey Deacon said:

I was looking for a property in 2014 and the process was
1)Every house is an open house inspection.
2)You get there and there are 20 other couples all looking around the house.
3)Everyone is looking at everyone else and thinking "fk, if we don't buy a house soon we will never get one"
4)The estate agent stands in the middle of the room and announces "We have just had a full asking price offer from someone who has not even viewed the property. It is now going to sealed bids"
5)At the end of the viewing everybody leaves and walks to the next house as a group.
6)You get talking to an agent and he informs you of a house that is not yet on the market as yet but he might be able to arrange a viewing that afternoon.
7)You view the house and offer full asking as you leave
8)You get a call saying that there were three full asking price offers over the weekend on that house so it is going to sealed bids.

Been there, done that. Your post unearthed serious traumatic anxiety from back then

[NickCQ]

richardxjr said:

equity release ... future mis-selling scandal bound to happen?

There will certainly be a lot of disappointed inheritors who didn't realise granny's house was financed at >100% LTV when you include rolled-up interest.

[MX-6]

Joey Deacon said:

I predict that once these government backed 95% mortgages are available the market is going to go mental. We will just be out of lockdown, the weather will be better, people will have saved money over the last 12 months and suddenly they have the £20K required for the deposit.

This is pretty much how I'm seeing it. I wouldn't say that it'll go mental necessarily but it's hard to see anything other than an upward movement.

If as predicted Rishi's budget pushes the end of furlough down the road to say September, it should stave off some of the job losses than might have otherwise been the case. There'll surely be a post June 21st mini-boom over summer due to pent up demand for just about everything, which will likely bode well for house price sentiment.

[richardxjr]

MX-6 said:

Joey Deacon said:

I predict that once these government backed 95% mortgages are available the market is going to go mental. We will just be out of lockdown, the weather will be better, people will have saved money over the last 12 months and suddenly they have the £20K required for the deposit.

This is pretty much how I'm seeing it. I wouldn't say that it'll go mental necessarily but it's hard to see anything other than an upward movement.

If as predicted Rishi's budget pushes the end of furlough down the road to say September, it should stave off some of the job losses than might have otherwise been the case. There'll surely be a post June 21st mini-boom over summer due to pent up demand for just about everything, which will likely bode well for house price sentiment.

Christ, if it's extended until September that's just before next winter's inevitable lockdown ... so may as well say extended for another year.

Mental!

[anonymous-user]

richardxjr said:

Christ, if it's extended until September that's just before next winter's inevitable lockdown ... so may as well say extended for another year.

Mental!

That's how I see it as well. So it is entirely possible that if Furlough is extended to September that people may have been paid to stay home for 18 months. Are we seriously supposed to believe these jobs still exist, are open and will suddenly become viable in September?

Are we going to end up with millions of people who have been paid 80% to stay home for two years or more? At what point does this just get renamed to universal income?