How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]

[Sheepshanks]

V6Alfisti said:

Land Registry is normally a month behind but is the most accurate as it is sold/completed houses e.g the last report on 21st April seems to have included completed sales up to the 26th March (from what I can see, unless anyone knows better)

LR say the first estimate captures about 40% or relevant sales. They revise it again and capture more. They also muck about with the data - it's not raw. Like I say though, in a fast moving market it could easily be 6 months behind the current price action.

V6Alfisti said:

In terms of the area I am looking at, lots more stock was coming on last week (I had 9 in one day - which was a new record) and having looked at the last 3 weeks of saved properties of interest only 2 have gone SSTC and the other 12 or so are still on the market. (This isn't the full market, just my saved properties in my search bracket). Even the sub £750-800k market has cooled but not to the same level. Although what is evident, the houses that are immaculate/perfect/oven ready, those are the ones that do move.

In our search area there's been just three properities added in the last three weeks. Pretty well everything older than that is SSTC - including one from early April that I scoffed at the listing when I saw it at £1M.


I'm very frustrated that there's an empty house nearby where the owner croaked last year and the sons still haven't put it on the market. I saw them at the house a few months ago and had a chat and left my details, but they didn't offer theirs (they live some way away). I think it'd be ideal for us, but don't want to get too wound up about it as the current market might encourage them to ask a bonkers price for it.

[condor]

They probably have to wait till probate is granted. Also if the deceased's will has solicitors as sole executors, could be well over a year before that house comes on the market. Or nearly 2 years, if the will recipients decided to take the house between themselves, so as to rid them of the solicitors involvement.

[spikeyhead]

gangzoom said:

Leicester Loyal said:

424k for a new build terrace in Leicester, probably one of the most overpriced houses I've ever seen.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/106053614#/

Am pretty sure that's a typo, a similar property in WoodHouse Eaves wouldn't command that price, let alone one next to the M1 sharing a borough boarder with one of the highest crime rates in the county.

I've recently seen a four bed detached in a good part of Birstal go for about £50k less than that. I can't see anyone paying that money for a terraced place there.

[Ari]

Joey Deacon said:

Nationwide results out today and the HousePriceCrash cult are not happy.

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...

Up 2.1% this month. I predicted prices would rise 10% this year, so only another 7.9% to go.

A rare post about house price trends in a house price trend thread!

They certainly seem to be rocketing in the south-west.

[princeperch]

More tedious e11 updates from me.

This house isn't a million miles from me:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/79467543#/

It had multiple viewings and is under offer for 575, so I have been informed. 11 years ago it would have struggled to have achieved 200k in that condition, 8 year ago it might have made 225k. Even in 2014 it would have only been worth about 300k. And it needs a 6 figure sum spending on it now to bring it up to date and do the loft.

The lady who lived there told me she paid 10k for the house back in the 70s.

Strange times.

Edited by princeperch on Tuesday 4th May 18:16

[ooid]

princeperch said:

More tedious e11 updates from me.


Strange times.

Edited by princeperch on Tuesday 4th May 18:16

Walking distance to underground, overground and Wanstead Flats. That is purely the valuation for a freehold nowadays in your area, just for the land is min. 500k. and can’t blame them!

[NickCQ]

scope to add a lot of space in that loft

[princeperch]

NickCQ said:

scope to add a lot of space in that loft

Christ, don't start that all again.

[Sheepshanks]

condor said:

They probably have to wait till probate is granted. Also if the deceased's will has solicitors as sole executors, could be well over a year before that house comes on the market. Or nearly 2 years, if the will recipients decided to take the house between themselves, so as to rid them of the solicitors involvement.

They're doing it all themselves, apparently. There's just no sense of wanting to get on with it.

I dealt with FILs estate inc house sale a year ago and the thing that was a priority in my mind was to get the house away and not be stuck with it. These lads have probably now missed to chance to benefit from buyers being keen to miss stamp duty, and who knows what's going to happen to the market.

[V6Alfisti]

Sheepshanks said:

V6Alfisti said:

Land Registry is normally a month behind but is the most accurate as it is sold/completed houses e.g the last report on 21st April seems to have included completed sales up to the 26th March (from what I can see, unless anyone knows better)

LR say the first estimate captures about 40% or relevant sales. They revise it again and capture more. They also muck about with the data - it's not raw. Like I say though, in a fast moving market it could easily be 6 months behind the current price action.

V6Alfisti said:

In terms of the area I am looking at, lots more stock was coming on last week (I had 9 in one day - which was a new record) and having looked at the last 3 weeks of saved properties of interest only 2 have gone SSTC and the other 12 or so are still on the market. (This isn't the full market, just my saved properties in my search bracket). Even the sub £750-800k market has cooled but not to the same level. Although what is evident, the houses that are immaculate/perfect/oven ready, those are the ones that do move.

In our search area there's been just three properities added in the last three weeks. Pretty well everything older than that is SSTC - including one from early April that I scoffed at the listing when I saw it at £1M.


I'm very frustrated that there's an empty house nearby where the owner croaked last year and the sons still haven't put it on the market. I saw them at the house a few months ago and had a chat and left my details, but they didn't offer theirs (they live some way away). I think it'd be ideal for us, but don't want to get too wound up about it as the current market might encourage them to ask a bonkers price for it.

How do you get to 6 months? They normally revise within a month (as do Halifax and nationwide - historically I remember it was largely always down, but don't know recently). Yes they do use their own methodology (as it needs to blend out the housing types) but it's the only one that isn't commercially funded, is all sales (not just the ones that cross their door) e.t.c. Hence to my eyes land registry is the best of what we have by miles.

Crikey, you do seem to be in one of the current hot zones. That's always the danger of averages, people can assume something is flying or otherwise. The only real way to tell is look at the market/area you are interested in and see what happens. It will be interesting post stamp duty 2 to see a more realistic view.

However appreciate that panic/impatience will set in when you are seeing what you are. Where are you again?

Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 4th May 19:57

[Sheepshanks]

V6Alfisti said:

How do you get to 6 months?

Time from offer to completion. Won't always be 6 months, but could easily be - there's people in another thread who've been SSTC for so long they're talking about putting the price up.

[V6Alfisti]

Sheepshanks said:

Time from offer to completion. Won't always be 6 months, but could easily be - there's people in another thread who've been SSTC for so long they're talking about putting the price up.

Ah got you, not a 6 months delay in land registry recording a sale post completion but rather a reflection of a lengthy sale.

Halifax and Nationwide are equally later down the line as they only record post survey and are still part market. So I suspect there is limited difference between the value agreed at this point and land registry. I don't think en mass negotiation post survey is a thing.

The only one that might be closer to today is Rightmove but that's just asking price and I think I saw something that still says a decent percentage of property on Rightmove doesn't sell. Although clearly some areas are running much hotter than usual.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 4th May 22:22

[ooid]

A canary Wharf development just caught a fire today, luckily they stopped it.

https://twitter.com/rachaelvenables/status/1390590...

The problem is many of these flats were covered with this type of cladding, and they are all stuck (lease-holders) it is nation-wide issue, many can't sell or event rent nowadays. One of the reasons, "house" prices are going up, (Freehold), first time buyers are staying away from new build flats now.. Some of these buildings have quite complicated the cladding due to their assembly details, and it is more expensive to remove. Once they are removed and fixed (who knows when), I've been told there might be 30% more flats availability in the market, huge supply.

[kiethton]

An update from me - tenant in the building can't afford my place and as such spoke to the agent that sold next door earlier this week - asked for 2 weeks to get it to a good standard before photo's/hitting the market....

They've booked 6 viewings for tomorrow and another 2 for Monday.....as such today has been a crazy one of carting 5 years worth of clutter down to the garage to make it look half presentable/spacious (even if the touching up/2 kitchen units and bookcase are not yet done...). Get a sense that the majority of these off-market viewers are BTL's given they've said most are cash and the flat should give a 4.5-5% gross yield which, for zone 3 London isn't too bad!

They are confident in getting an offer (or more) above our target £330k...issue is all the places we had our eye on look to have sold....

[kingston12]

kiethton said:

An update from me - tenant in the building can't afford my place and as such spoke to the agent that sold next door earlier this week - asked for 2 weeks to get it to a good standard before photo's/hitting the market....

They've booked 6 viewings for tomorrow and another 2 for Monday.....as such today has been a crazy one of carting 5 years worth of clutter down to the garage to make it look half presentable/spacious (even if the touching up/2 kitchen units and bookcase are not yet done...). Get a sense that the majority of these off-market viewers are BTL's given they've said most are cash and the flat should give a 4.5-5% gross yield which, for zone 3 London isn't too bad!

They are confident in getting an offer (or more) above our target £330k...issue is all the places we had our eye on look to have sold....

Well, they are keen at least! It's sometimes best to get all of that stuff out of the way quickly anyway, I'm dreading doing it if/when we eventually move out of here.

I definitely think that BTL buyers would jump at a 5% gross yield. We're a bit further out, and the recent sales/rentals across the road put them at under 3%!

Good luck with it all.

[princeperch]

Service charges must also be a worry. Some bloke was on c4 news tonight, wearing his dressing gown, and he was a leaseholder in the block that was on fire today in poplar. He said his service charge on his flat was 14 grand a year!

[gibbon]

Prices are up 8.2% in the last 12 months, the highest annual growth rate for five years - Halifax

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57055314

[Six Potter]

gibbon said:

Prices are up 8.2% in the last 12 months, the highest annual growth rate for five years - Halifax

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57055314

All the figures are showing strong rises now and I'm not sure there much signs of things slowing either, April alone was +1.4%.

In terms of annual growth, the ONS were saying even back in Feb that prices were 8.6% up the over a year, the largest rise since 2014, so that could be even higher for April/May.

I'm just satisfied that I moved in 2019 and am not in the market at the moment or looking to move any time soon...

[Ntv]

Six Potter said:

gibbon said:

Prices are up 8.2% in the last 12 months, the highest annual growth rate for five years - Halifax

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57055314

All the figures are showing strong rises now and I'm not sure there much signs of things slowing either, April alone was +1.4%.

In terms of annual growth, the ONS were saying even back in Feb that prices were 8.6% up the over a year, the largest rise since 2014, so that could be even higher for April/May.

I'm just satisfied that I moved in 2019 and am not in the market at the moment or looking to move any time soon...

The London figure hides a bifurcation between those properties with decent outdoor space, and those without.

I expect London will surge more in late summer/autumn as working in the office 2 days a week becomes more common (e.g. commuting from Devon becomes less appealing)

[NickCQ]

Ntv said:

I expect London will surge more in late summer/autumn as working in the office 2 days a week becomes more common (e.g. commuting from Devon becomes less appealing)

The feeling I am getting in my office is that people would like to come back at least 3/4 days a week, which was roughly average pre-COVID taking into account international travel. Junior staff seem to want 4/5 days (vs 6/7 pre-COVID ).

I suspect that the exodus from London will not be as large as some predicted.