CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 12)

CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 12)

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grumbledoak

31,532 posts

233 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
Elysium said:
This is my favourite graph from the SAGE modelling team at SPI-M:



Keeping their options open.
They have included scenarios where the trajectory simply continues. That's a first.

981C

1,091 posts

148 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
Elysium said:
This is my favourite graph from the SAGE modelling team at SPI-M:



Keeping their options open.
Can you still send actual turds to people in the post?

BabySharkDooDooDooDooDooDoo

15,077 posts

169 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
ukbabz said:
Elysium said:
This is my favourite graph from the SAGE modelling team at SPI-M:



Keeping their options open.
Somewhere between 20-1200 a day? How on earth is this not being picked up and told to go away and provide some models not a throwing a dart at the side of a barn
Because science, universities, experts, and degrees. YOU MUST NOT QUESTION! All hail the saviours of the pandemic.

robuk

2,210 posts

190 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
sl0wlane said:
I’m slightly more worried about the polygon 2021 cyber exercise, because that simulates a mass shutdown of the internet… and we know what swiftly followed the last pandemic exercise (should we just be calling these things dress rehearsals instead?)
Sounds like you should get prepping and turn your internet off for good and get ready for offline like - go get ahead of the game champ!

markcoznottz

7,155 posts

224 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
Elysium said:
This is my favourite graph from the SAGE modelling team at SPI-M:



Keeping their options open.
The obr/treasury used to love those graphs where the end fanned out, it’s basically bullshine.

Bullett

10,881 posts

184 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
If my staff came to me with a projection like that they would be told to go away and make it more focused and realistic.

dmahon

2,717 posts

64 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
Bullett said:
If my staff came to me with a projection like that they would be told to go away and make it more focused and realistic.
It’s basically acknowledging that it can’t be modelled. Yet we’ve been slaves to models all year!

SAGE ones, not supermodels sadly.

danllama

5,728 posts

142 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
sl0wlane said:
Just flipping back to the great reset topic that was covered in the last few pages of the last thread.

There can be no doubt, no doubt at all that this is what is happening. Regardless of this term being used before or after, Klaus says Covid presented an opportunity to implement it, and that is what is happening.

Our world leaders are all following the line, using the strap line… it was launched by Prince Charles… its a fact that this is what our elite our working to do.

The big question is… is it so bad, and what does it mean for us little people.

Obviously it’s a huge “green” agenda, some humanitarian stuff (on the face of it)… and in most people’s eyes those are good things… but what is the actual reality of the policies?

Are cheap flights gone for good (because carbon)?
What are the real implications of “stakeholder capitalism”?
Will we all be carrying digital ID cards forever?

Will you “own nothing and be happy”?

I’m slightly more worried about the polygon 2021 cyber exercise, because that simulates a mass shutdown of the internet… and we know what swiftly followed the last pandemic exercise (should we just be calling these things dress rehearsals instead?)
Anyone who thinks it isn't a coordinated assault on our way of life is extremely deluded. None of us will be better off for it. The deception should tell you all you need to know.

croyde

22,857 posts

230 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
I joined the crowds at Teddington Lock, as it's on my way home from work, who were trying to see the young Minke whale.

Sadly it was as they put it too sleep.

Massive crowd of people, TV crews and police.

Sad though it was, what was uplifting was that I was in a crowd of people, shoulder to shoulder, yet quiet and respectful. Hardly any masks.

My first taste of normality for a long while. There's hope....

Graveworm

8,494 posts

71 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
BabySharkDooDooDooDooDooDoo said:
ukbabz said:
Elysium said:
This is my favourite graph from the SAGE modelling team at SPI-M:



Keeping their options open.
Somewhere between 20-1200 a day? How on earth is this not being picked up and told to go away and provide some models not a throwing a dart at the side of a barn
Because science, universities, experts, and degrees. YOU MUST NOT QUESTION! All hail the saviours of the pandemic.
It's an Illustration of what the difference is between R of 0.8, 1.1, 1.3 and 1.5. Their modelled prediction is the grey. They make the point that:

Even under a scenario where transmission increases to, for example, R=1.3 but not as
high as R=1.5, no substantial increase in hospitalisations is expected over this four-week period.

isaldiri

18,537 posts

168 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
Bullett said:
If my staff came to me with a projection like that they would be told to go away and make it more focused and realistic.
Well but if you had instructed them to come up with a range of scenarios to reflect a range of possible assumptions you could hardly blame them for giving you a projection like that.... The fault lies in this case primarily with what they are being told to model in the first place.

Jinx

11,387 posts

260 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
isaldiri said:
Well but if you had instructed them to come up with a range of scenarios to reflect a range of possible assumptions you could hardly blame them for giving you a projection like that.... The fault lies in this case primarily with what they are being told to model in the first place.
Hence it is a model of scenarios not a predictive model (similar to the RCPs used by the IPCC - with the worst case (8.5) being used in all the subsequent literature for impact, rather than the more likely 6.0) .
Unfortunately I am not sure those that are looking at the model understand its limitations.

rfsteel

711 posts

170 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
Yet no one talks about the previous modelled predictions and what really happened;



https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

grumbledoak

31,532 posts

233 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
danllama said:
Anyone who thinks it isn't a coordinated assault on our way of life is extremely deluded. None of us will be better off for it. The deception should tell you all you need to know.
yes We are seeing everything from open trolling to heads in sand to active change management. But precious little truth, and no choice.

But we will be happy.


Rollin

6,085 posts

245 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
rfsteel said:
Yet no one talks about the previous modelled predictions and what really happened;



https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
The predictions assumed no change in policy.


xx99xx

1,910 posts

73 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
rfsteel said:
Yet no one talks about the previous modelled predictions and what really happened;



https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
'assuming no changes in policy'. But there were changes in policy so what actually happened is no measure of model accuracy.

Ntv

5,177 posts

123 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
You should work for the Beeb Tonker!



Ntv

5,177 posts

123 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Maybe we could sum up as:

Spike in BAME area: poverty / white racism (at a push)
Spike in white area: rule breaking stheads



RSTurboPaul

10,326 posts

258 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
JagLover said:
The CDC has conceded it is airborne. This follows a few articles over the last month in the likes of the Lancet that claimed it was.

https://www.biospace.com/article/cdc-s-updated-gui...

If this is the main means of transmission doesn't this call into question many aspects of the rules designed to constrain it?. Masks for example won't be doing much at all. As for distance, well what matters there is likely to be the ventilation of the space you are in with an infectious person, not distance alone.
So... masks are pointless, then?



Oh, wait:

CDC said:
At the same time the study was published, the CDC published research stating that double masking reduced COVID-19 droplet exposure by up to 95% compared with single masking. Based on this research, the agency started recommending the use of two masks instead of one, lending continued support to N95 masks in conjunction with either a cloth or surgical mask.
rolleyes

RSTurboPaul

10,326 posts

258 months

Tuesday 11th May 2021
quotequote all
xx99xx said:
rfsteel said:
Yet no one talks about the previous modelled predictions and what really happened;



https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
'assuming no changes in policy'. But there were changes in policy so what actually happened is no measure of model accuracy.
Presumably the potential outcomes of interventions / policy changes were modelled?

And shown to us?



Oh.
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