Coronavirus : Early Days

[Cold]

It won't be long until we reach the milestone of Ant Middleton declaring he's still hugging fans at the airport. Can't wait.

[johnboy1975]

coanda said:

RSTurboPaul said:

coanda said:

Also, in case you weren't aware: https://covidreference.com/timeline Hopefully it won't cause any extreme reactions from forum members.

Thanks for that link, I'd not seen it before.


Am I right in thinking there was also a Twitter account re-posting (just?) Govt tweets from one year ago on the given date, as a 'look back with perspective' type of thing?

Sorry, I wouldn't know - I don't use twitter if I can at all help it.

@yearcovid

[johnboy1975]

Yuxi said:

I live in China, I flew back to China on Januray 29th 2020, on the way to Heathrow it came on the radio that BA had suspended all flights to China but my flight was with China Southern so no problem. The lady at check in asked me if I really wanted to go, I said yes, I live and work there.
I flew Heathrow to Zhengzhou then Zhengzhou to Chongqing, Zhengzhou airport was deserted, about 5% of normal flights flew through it that day.
First few days back were fairly normal, I had a few days before work started. Then it started, 4 weeks in my apartment, vegetables delivered by the government every few days, after a week I could leave the community for an hour every 2 days to go shopping. Only a few supermarkets open, nothing else, no traffic, nobody on the street. After 4 weeks we all returned to work, so early March, within a couple of months most things were back to normal.
Im glad I missed what happened in the UK.

Fascinating. Was everybody broadly in favour "for the greater good" ?

Would you say the Chinese cases / deaths was an accurate figure?

If infected, did they leave you to recover at home, or take you to a facility?

What was the state media like?

[Yuxi]

johnboy1975 said:

Yuxi said:

I live in China, I flew back to China on Januray 29th 2020, on the way to Heathrow it came on the radio that BA had suspended all flights to China but my flight was with China Southern so no problem. The lady at check in asked me if I really wanted to go, I said yes, I live and work there.
I flew Heathrow to Zhengzhou then Zhengzhou to Chongqing, Zhengzhou airport was deserted, about 5% of normal flights flew through it that day.
First few days back were fairly normal, I had a few days before work started. Then it started, 4 weeks in my apartment, vegetables delivered by the government every few days, after a week I could leave the community for an hour every 2 days to go shopping. Only a few supermarkets open, nothing else, no traffic, nobody on the street. After 4 weeks we all returned to work, so early March, within a couple of months most things were back to normal.
Im glad I missed what happened in the UK.

Fascinating. Was everybody broadly in favour "for the greater good" ?

Would you say the Chinese cases / deaths was an accurate figure?

If infected, did they leave you to recover at home, or take you to a facility?

What was the state media like?

I will answer from my perspective and experience –
The Chinese people tend to do what they told, the consequences if they don't are serious. There was a small outbreak that started in Nanjing a few weeks ago, this affected all of China, I was traveling at the time in a different Province to the one I live in and it made it difficult to stay in Hotels because I have a British passport, even though I have been here for 19 months, been vaccinated, have green health and travel codes and had not visited any Province where the virus was. Flying back to my city, before take off, I was asked by an air hostess when had I arrived in China, then the cabin steward, then the captain came and asked me the same question.
Asking Chinese friends and colleagues now are they frightened of catching the virus or getting in trouble for catching the virus its always the later.

I have no idea about the Chinese numbers, only to say that in my group of friends and colleagues in China I know of nobody who even knows anybody that has had the virus, in my group of friends, family and people I know in the UK 4 have died and many who have had it.

Now people with it are hospitalised and always have been in my city but the numbers were low here, about 300 I think, I don’t think this was the case during the early days in Wuhan but have no evidence.

I stopped consuming state media years ago!

[johnboy1975]

Yuxi said:

.
Asking Chinese friends and colleagues now are they frightened of catching the virus or getting in trouble for catching the virus its always the later.

Do they get in trouble for catching it? Loss of social credit points or whatever the system is?

This could run and run (because interesting stuff), I'd be interested in a "I spent 18 months in China during covid - ask me anything" type of thread

[Yuxi]

johnboy1975 said:

Yuxi said:

.
Asking Chinese friends and colleagues now are they frightened of catching the virus or getting in trouble for catching the virus its always the later.

Do they get in trouble for catching it? Loss of social credit points or whatever the system is?

This could run and run (because interesting stuff), I'd be interested in a "I spent 18 months in China during covid - ask me anything" type of thread

It’s about not being the one who brought the virus to your city/community/company etc. The story of the last outbreak in Nanjing was that a cleaning lady cleaning a plane that had come from Russia didn’t follow the rules and caught it while on the plane, she then broke the rules again and went to the departures area of the airport, met some colleagues who then spread it around deptartures and it ended up in several other Chinese cities. Several managers and other airport staff lost there jobs over it. The lady who is old, uneducated and on a very small wage was hated across China on social media.
One of my companies sites closed for two weeks a few weeks ago because a couple tested positive in a city 30 miles away (linked with above) they locked down the city, tested everybody and found no more cases.
When I returned to Chongqing after my holiday I had to have a negative test result and have green health and travel codes before I could return to work. A test is only 6 UK pounds here, just turn up at the hospital and receive the result the next day.

[cherryowen]

13th February 2020

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/12/what...

said:

China’s two new hospitals built in as many weeks were the official face of its fight against the coronavirus in Wuhan. As the city was locked down, authorities promised that thousands of doctors would be on hand to treat 2,600 patients on the facilities’ wards.

Timelapse videos tracked the almost incomprehensibly fast construction of the hospitals, and state media celebrated their opening in early February. The only thing missing a week later? Patients.

---

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/122794469232886...

NEW: Huanggang, a city of 6 million people near Wuhan, will tighten its lockdown at midnight to ban people from leaving their home; basic needs will be provided by the local government

---

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/lond...

said:

The first person diagnosed with coronavirus in London turned up unannounced at a hospital in an Uber taxi after falling ill.

Two staff from Lewisham hospital in south London are now in isolation at home after coming into contact with the woman, a Chinese national who had recently arrived in the city from China.

[cherryowen]

14th February 2020

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-ne...

said:

Coronavirus case attended Westminster conference with 250 delegates - those in close contact are now being traced
The unnamed person who is suffering from Covid-19 visited the UK Bus Summit at the QEII Centre in Westminster last week on February 6.

(Pertaining to the first case identified in London)

---

https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1228379904...

Neil Ferguson said:

400,000 deaths is not an absurd number

---

https://text.npr.org/805289669

said:

Many of the more serious cases have been in people who are middle-aged and elderly

But if you look at the vast majority of the people who have serious disease and who will ultimately die, they are in that group that are either elderly and/or have underlying conditions.

---

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&a...

said:

Our cCFR estimates of 5.3% and 8.4% indicate that the severity of COVID-19 is not as high as that of other diseases caused by coronaviruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)

Moreover, considering that about 9% of all infected individuals are ascertained and reported [24], the infection fatality risk (IFR), i.e., the risk of death among all infected individuals, would be on the order of 0.5% to 0.8%

(Note : above paper released 29th January, but posted here 14th February)

---

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviru...

said:

Globally
49 053 laboratory-confirmed
(2056 new)
China
48 548 laboratory-confirmed
(1998 new)
1381 deaths (121 new) †
Outside of China
505 laboratory-confirmed
(58 new)
24 countries
2 deaths (1 new)

[isaldiri]

Just as a further note, I recommend keeping an extra eye out for posts from RTB in the earlier threads. He was by a huge margin pretty much the best poster on the covid related issues and unlike a few others involved (or partially involved) in his field, he was very much still able to keep a sensible outlook on things. It's a real loss that midway through summer he dropped off PH - very much appreciated his posts and hope he's doing ok and just decided (probably entirely sensibly) to just stop posting giving some of the discussion here had started on both sides getting increasingly unhinged.

[cherryowen]

I must admit, I do happen upon posts by RTB occasionally when updating by records and - as you say - compared to other "fringe" contributors at the time, they were remarkably level headed.

Unfortunately, I've not recorded RTB's posts as i) the original threads were running at some 25+ pages per day and ii) pneumothorax's contributions were compelling and prescient (despite his sparse posts as of 7th March 2020) being "at the rock face" as a London GP.

[cherryowen]

Still on 7th March 2020 in my records. The daily post count on Vol.2 at the time was astonishing

15th February 2020

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51514837

said:

A Chinese tourist has died in France after contracting the new coronavirus - the first fatality from the disease outside Asia.

The victim was an 80-year-old man from China's Hubei province, according to French Health Minister Agnès Buzyn.

He arrived in France on 16 January and was placed in quarantine in hospital in Paris on 25 January, she said.

---

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51491763

Are coronavirus tests flawed?

---

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/remd...

said:

The experimental antiviral remdesivir successfully prevented disease in rhesus macaques infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), according to a new study from National Institutes of Health scientists. Remdesivir prevented disease when administered before infection and improved the condition of macaques when given after the animals already were infected.

[Ashfordian]

Thanks for your efforts on this thread. It will be interesting what you find over time in the threads.

Can I ask you to review/include this video when you get to 30th April by Chris Whitty? It was correct then as it is now so it makes me wonder what changed

[cherryowen]

Ashfordian said:

Thanks for your efforts on this thread. It will be interesting what you find over time in the threads.

It's not a problem

As I alluded to in my OP, this is not a cathartic thing but just an attempt to understand how we got to where we are. Two personal examples:-

i) Early March last year, and I was running low on Jameson's, so I ventured to the local Asda that I knew were selling it on offer at £16 a pop. I sent a text to Mrs. O when parking up to ask if there was anything we needed. 'Bread', was the answer. Five minutes later, I called back to say that the only loaf left in the whole store was a small, wholemeal, unsliced, seeded example.

ii) Driving to work on 24th March 2020 on the M54 was surreal. Two lanes of emptiness.

Anyway.

16th February 2020

Thesprucegoose said:

Last month Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, told Guardian Unlimited that up to 200 million people could be killed.

Back in 2005 about Bird Flu....

Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, London, said yesterday that up to 40 per cent of the population in Britain could be infected.

2009 about Swine Flu.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/bird...

2005 Guardian piece. Neil Ferguson : "Last month Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, told Guardian Unlimited that up to 200 million people could be killed.

"Around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak," said Prof Ferguson. "There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably."

As we have seen recently, this tosser (Ferguson) - with his inflammatory projections - gets more airtime than is deserved.

[nikaiyo2]

B'stard Child said:

Mrs BC and I had a holiday in South Vietnam in Nov 2018 (enjoyed the food and the country a lot) so in Nov 2019 went to North Vietnam. The difference in mask wearing in public was a surprise - South in 2018 hardly anyone - North in 2019 virtually everyone.

Back end of the 14 days Mrs BC picked up something that made her fatigued, moaning about being too hot or too cold and was whinging about the food having no taste or smell but that was about it

We flew home I hate plane journeys at the best of times - got home and I got hit (metaphorically) by a bug that packed a punch like freight train - Body temperature soared up and down (one min sweating next frozen) - dreadful hacking cough - what I could eat had no taste or smell - my whole body ached and for only the second time in my life I felt the best place I could be (and the only place I wanted to be) was in bed and for three days that's where I stayed

After that little run in with some nasty little virus it took probably 2 - 3 months before I could walk up the stairs without a pause half way.

I'm mid 50's 5 ft 13 and 12 Stone - I have no known medical issues

Mrs BC is similar age but is a PORG - has a few minor medical issues

I can understand why it was safe to take off a mask when seated in the pub as it clearly circulates above the 5ft mark

Only in Jan 20 did I start to recognise what I think I had picked up.

Even 10 years ago loads more people wore masks in Hanoi compared to Saigon some days the pollution in Hanoi is terrible, apparently the humidity in Saigon makes the air less able to hold particles.

I think I had it in 2019, a woman in our office was really unwell last day before we shut for Xmas, 3 or 4 days later I was so ill spent most of Xmas day in bed and felt like crap till after new year. I recon 6 of us ended up ill over Xmas 19 out of maybe 10\11 in our offices. All of us had what we now know is covid symptoms.

[cherryowen]

17th February 2020

https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/deta...

W.H.O. said:

As of 6 am Geneva time today, China has reported 70,635 cases of COVID-19 to WHO, including 1772 deaths.

In the past 24 hours China has reported 2051 new cases, which includes both clinically-confirmed and lab-confirmed cases.

94% of new cases continue to come from Hubei province.

Outside China, WHO has received reports of 694 cases from 25 countries, and three deaths.

More than 80% of patients have mild disease and will recover.

In about 14% of cases, the virus causes severe disease, including pneumonia and shortness of breath.

And about 5% of patients have critical disease including respiratory failure, septic shock and multi-organ failure.

In 2% of reported cases, the virus is fatal, and the risk of death increases the older you are.

We see relatively few cases among children. More research is needed to understand why.

---

https://github.com/cmrivers/ncov/blob/master/COVID...

(Note : PDF file)

said:

In light of this rapid spread, it is fortunate that COVID-19 has been mild for 81% of patients and has a very low overall case fatality rate of 2.3%. among the 1,023 deaths, a majority have been ≥60 years of age and/or have had pre-existing, comorbid conditions such as hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. Moreover, the case fatality rate is unsurprisingly highest among critical cases at 49%, and no deaths have occurred among those with mild or even severe symptoms

Based on the above, it seems it was pretty clear quite early on what members of society were likely to be hardest hit and at most risk.

18th February 2020

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/17/coro...

said:

The UK government is scrambling to contact scores of British travellers who disembarked from a cruise ship in Cambodia, after one of the passengers onboard later tested positive for coronavirus.

Experts have raised concerns over the handling of the MS Westerdam’s passengers as they departed the ship on Friday, and warned that hundreds of people who may have been exposed to the Covid-19 virus have now scattered around the world.

---

https://abc7.com/health/santa-clarit...ntine/59401...

said:

A couple from Santa Clarita who was on a coronavirus-stricken cruise ship in Japan were diverted from California to Nebraska after the husband became ill, officials say.

Jeri Seratt-Goldman says her husband, Carl Goldman, came down with a fever two hours into the flight to Travis Air Force Base in Northern California and was placed into the isolated section of the plane. The couple was among some 380 Americans who boarded a flight Sunday from Tokyo, where the passengers were quarantined on the Diamond Princess for nearly two weeks.

Again

[cherryowen]

19th February 2020

https://news.stv.tv/scotland/no-need-to-panic-over...

said:

Scotland’s public health minister has said there was no need for people to panic about coronavirus as he visited the lab at Glasgow Royal Infirmary (GRI).

He said although it was likely there will be a case of coronavirus in Scotland, the country was well prepared to deal with the situation.

“There is no need for people to be panicked,” Mr FitzPatrick said.

“We are clear that this is a serious threat that we are taking seriously and we’re preparing for worst case scenarios, but right now the risk in Scotland, as in the rest of the UK, remains low so there’s no evidence to suggest that people should be walking around Scotland wearing face masks.

eharding said:

When the SNP are telling you not to panic, that's the time to start panicking. Panic hard, and then panic a bit harder.

---

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviru...

W.H.O. said:

SITUATION IN NUMBERS
total and new cases in last 24
hours
Globally
75 204 confirmed (1872 new)
China †
74 280 confirmed (1752 new)
2006 deaths (136 new)
Outside of China
924 confirmed (120 new)
25 countries
3 deaths

---

20th February 2020

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/119686602/coron...

said:

Two passengers on the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship have reportedly died from coronavirus, according to Japan's public broadcaster NHK.

The passengers were a man and a woman in their 80s, NHK said, who cited an unidentified government source.

---

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-...

said:

In the wee hours of a rainy Monday, more than a dozen buses sat on the tarmac at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport. Inside, 328 weary Americans wearing surgical masks and gloves waited anxiously to fly home after weeks in quarantine aboard the Diamond Princess, the luxury liner where the novel coronavirus had ­exploded into a shipwide epidemic.

But as the buses idled, U.S. officials wrestled with troubling news. New test results showed that 14 passengers were infected with the virus. The U.S. State Department had promised that no one with the infection would be allowed to board the planes.

[cherryowen]

21st February 2020

https://translate.google.com/translate?depth=1&amp...

said:

Coronavirus, now the virus is in Italy, the fourth country in Europe

CASES IMPORTED INTO EUROPE : as of February 20, Germany had notified 16 cases, of which two imported and the rest secondary; the imported cases are all attributable to an employee of the automobile manufacturer Webasto, in Bavaria, in turn infected by a Chinese executive on a business trip; France 12 (5 imported, 7 secondary and one dead); Great Britain 9 (of which only one is imported); Italy 3 (the two Chinese tourists and the Italian who returned from Wuhan who was declared cured today) to which are added the 16 cases of today between Lombardy and Veneto and for which definitive tests are awaited; Spain 2; Belgium, Finland and Sweden one.

Just 3 cases in Italy as of 21.02.2020. Didn't take long for it all to go tits.

---

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/bst/advpub/0/...

said:

Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies

Wasn't this the stuff that Trump was rattling on about in the early stages?

---

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/21/coronavirus-wu...

said:

For all other provinces, the models are on track,” said mathematical epidemiologist Gerardo Chowell of Georgia State. “The containment strategies implemented in China are successfully reducing transmission,” he and his colleagues wrote in a paper published last week in Infectious Disease Modeling. “The epidemic growth has slowed.”

Chowell inclines toward optimism, he said: “I think that we’ll control this,” especially if the Covid-19 virus (like influenza and other viruses) doesn’t survive or spread as well in warm, humid conditions.

Early suggestion that lockdowns work

---

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/21/coronavirus-pi...

said:

The growth in the daily case count in China has been tamped down of late by the country’s extraordinary quarantine effort. Cities that are home to tens of millions of people have been on virtual lockdown for several weeks. While the apparent impact of those measures has instilled hope in some that there is still time to stop circulation of the virus, skeptics warn that disease levels in China could rebound when the country eases its movement restrictions and allows people to return to their jobs.

More support for lockdowns

[Lily the Pink]

We were going on holiday to Cuba at the end of February, and that week I was running around trying to find hand sanitiser, which disappeared very quickly from the shelves.

[cherryowen]

22nd February 2020

https://twitter.com/dhscgovuk/status/1231224404832...

said:

UPDATE on coronavirus (#COVID19) testing in the UK:

As of 2PM on Saturday 22 February 2020, a total of 6,152 tests have concluded:

6,143 were confirmed negative.
9 positive.

UK SitRep at the time

---

23rd February 2020

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-stor...

said:

Xi didn’t actually admit that the coronavirus now devastating large swaths of China had escaped from one of the country’s bioresearch labs. But the very next day, evidence emerged suggesting that this is exactly what happened, as the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive titled: “Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus.”

And just how many “microbiology labs” are there in China that handle “advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus”?

It turns out that in all of China, there is only one. And this one is located in the Chinese city of Wuhan that just happens to be … the epicenter of the epidemic.

---

25th February 2020

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51625733

said:

Children returning from holidays in northern Italy have been sent home from school after new government health advice on the coronavirus.

Four schools in England have shut completely for a "deep clean" after pupils came back from skiing trips.

The Foreign Office has now updated its travel advice, warning against all but essential travel to 11 quarantined towns in Italy.

The government said anyone returning from those towns must self-isolate.

And those who have travelled north of Pisa are asked to stay at home for 14 days if they develop flu-like symptoms.

Three confirmed cases as of 21.02.2020, and Italy have quarantined 11 towns four days later

---

Following on from the above

Prizam said:

Some interesting new stats available by region in the tracking portals. Now showing the existing "live" cases.


UK
Confirmed: 13
Deaths: 0
Recovered: 8
Existing: 5

---

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/123231934261788...

Matt Hancock said:

There is a good chance we can contain this

---

https://www.businessinsider.com/5-million-left-wuh...

(Note : Above piece is dated 27.01.2020; posted on PH 25.02.2020)

said:

The mayor of Wuhan, China, said about five million people left the city before it was placed on lockdown last week to slow the spread of coronavirus.

Escaping the outbreak may have been the cause for some people fleeing the city. But it also coincided with the Lunar New Year, China's most important holiday in which city workers return to their hometowns.

Lunar New Year is the largest annual human migration, with Chinese citizens making a combined 3 billion trips during the season.

Based on that, I think the containment boat had sailed quite a while ago Matty Boy

[cherryowen]

26th February 2020

Fatball said:

Day off work and Dr Hilary is on TV saying this is simply a more virulent form of a flu and that most normal healthy people will get over it much like flu but much like flu there are people who are ill or with compromised immune systems that will suffer or worse.

He’s quite chilled about it.

And just over - what - a month later, Dr. Hilary was a Bedwetter General on the subject!

---

https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/26/canary-wharf-office...

said:

Energy firm Chevron asked about 300 British employees to work remotely for the foreseeable future after a member of staff reported flu symptoms on their return from a country infected by the deadly bug.

The worker was sent for testing and the company told the rest of its staff not to return until the results came back.

The above article contains a link to:-

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11041657/coronavirus...

said:

A memo seen by The Sun last night states that the “reasonable worst case” involves “up to 80 per cent of the population being infected”.

The document by the National Security Communications Team warns: “The current planning assumption is that 2-3 per cent of symptomatic cases will result in a ­fatality.”

Around half a million Brits — mostly the elderly or those with pre-existing illnesses — would be killed under this scenario, according to health sources.

There's that figure of half a million deaths again

---

plasticpig said:

Very little happening on the UK update front:

"As of 26 February, a total of 7,132 people have been tested in the UK, of which 7,119 were confirmed negative and 13 positive."

---

https://pharmaphorum.com/news/gilead-surges-after-...

said:

Gilead’s share price has surged after health experts said its antiviral drug remdesivir is showing signs of efficacy against the deadly COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak.

Shares of the US biotech were up nearly 5% on Monday after the World Health Organization said remdesivir could be a potential therapy.

Bruce Aylward, an assistant director-general at the WHO, said at a press conference in Beijing: “There is only one drug right now that we think may have real efficacy and that’s remdesivir.”

Note : There are caveats further in the article