Cost of living squeeze in 2022

[Biggy Stardust]

Ian Geary said:

As for nimbus, yeah but no but

Every cloud has a silver lining?

[Welshbeef]

glazbagun said:

Throttlebody said:

UK property looks vulnerable to a serious correction. The dire and developing economic downturn will be deeper than in 2008. Bubble theory is well founded.

I don't disagree, but how does that look adjusted for inflation? We might be seeing the pound drop as much as house values rising.




As above, not an issue for those with assets anyway, unless they got into the market last recently and will need to remortgage.

House price values are only important for those downgrading or selling up or those not in the market.

Those on the ladder it makes not a single jot of difference.

[brickwall]

Welshbeef said:

glazbagun said:

Throttlebody said:

UK property looks vulnerable to a serious correction. The dire and developing economic downturn will be deeper than in 2008. Bubble theory is well founded.

I don't disagree, but how does that look adjusted for inflation? We might be seeing the pound drop as much as house values rising.




As above, not an issue for those with assets anyway, unless they got into the market last recently and will need to remortgage.

House price values are only important for those downgrading or selling up or those not in the market.

Those on the ladder it makes not a single jot of difference.

Tell that to someone who needs to remortgage in negative equity

[ben5575]

Ian Geary said:

At risk of planning rabbit hole (probably for homes forum) but what aspects of the planning system do you think are broken? And why?

This is coming from a background of land banking by the private sector, loads of permissions granted but never utilised, seeing increasingly small, barely habitable units being thrown up in ex office space, or badly built identikit houses being thrown up around ring roads with 0% though to community needs.

To me, insistence on decent standards is essential, to avoid a race to the bottom whilst people chant "do whatever it takes".

A parallel could be cutting back on food safety standards to bring the cost of food down. As a society, we should be better than that, and not sacrifice our principals to win the war.

As for nimbus, yeah but no but

As with many of the economic, ahem, "suggestions" put forward, we must remember we are a democracy. People need to feel they're listened to, and not see a race to the bottom regarding urban planning.

I don't generally support nimbys, but l would be worried about taking power from elected, accountable people and giving it to... who?

Developers, making millions pa from property development? Can that even be suggested with a straight face?

Who else? Democracy can be a bad system, but still better than all the others.

I'm a developer (houses, build to rent flats and hotels so acutely aware of inflation atm!) and happy to answer those questions if they're genuine/not too off topic. They're fairly generic points and representative of the wider misunderstanding of how housing need/demand, planning, development etc works.

[pquinn]

Fish said:

I'm a developer and the problem with house prices, being, honest is that we are struggling with supply which is behind demand and still will be in a recession.

The planning system is broken and the technical approvals to get an actionable consent is even more broken.

Until this is fixed the market place is buggered. It won't be till after a general election and our current man in charge Gove has been replaced, he has gone on a house builder hate campaign so frankly it is buggered and won't be fixed for the next 3-5 years when the government, whomever it is, realises you need to build houses.

Giving control to local politicians who need to be elected and are total nimby's does not solve this..!!

Same old argument we've had for years from the people who stand to make money from the things, and who just love to concentrate on building where they'll make the most money instead of - just maybe - suggesting the people go where there's plenty of cheaper property already.

And wah wah the planning system is broken - never heard that one before! Of course it's broken if you're looking from the side that just wants a rubber stamp and no interference.

The one thing I've definitely never seen with the tens of thousands of houses and flats built around my way is that letting people build extra made the prices come down. Definitely some very juicy profits, but never lower prices. And that's despite all those years of claims that if developers could build more that prices will drop.

Especially when all the activities in the market, especially by government, are targeted to make sure prices *don't* drop; maybe affordability gets boosted by no one wants lower prices ever.

[Biggy Stardust]

pquinn said:

And wah wah the planning system is broken - never heard that one before! Of course it's broken if you're looking from the side that just wants a rubber stamp and no interference.

I'll argue the opposite. Near me there are badgers & bats- I've seen them & the ecologists camped out saw them too, as did various locals objecting to the planning application.

Someone in the planning department must have received a brown envelope as their existence was totally denied & a bunch of houses built. The council isn't just lazy & incompetent, it's also corrupt.

Note that the additional housing wasn't accompanied by additional supporting infrastructure.

[Hereward]

JagLover said:

One thing bucking the trend seems to be insurance costs.

All the renewals this year have been for less than last year.

Indeed. I have 5 cars on an Admiral multi-car policy. Last year's premium was £1,360. This year's renewal offer is £825.

That reduction covers a decent chunk of fuel inflation.

[ben5575]

Biggy Stardust said:

I'll argue the opposite. Near me there are badgers & bats- I've seen them & the ecologists camped out saw them too, as did various locals objecting to the planning application.

Someone in the planning department must have received a brown envelope as their existence was totally denied & a bunch of houses built. The council isn't just lazy & incompetent, it's also corrupt.

Note that the additional housing wasn't accompanied by additional supporting infrastructure.

This didn't happen.

[glazbagun]

I should clarify that the latter of the two images above was the SP500, the details are lost in the posting. I was trying to illustrate money being ploughed into assets worldwide in an attempt to flee inflation causing a spike.

[Welshbeef]

brickwall said:

Welshbeef said:

glazbagun said:

Throttlebody said:

UK property looks vulnerable to a serious correction. The dire and developing economic downturn will be deeper than in 2008. Bubble theory is well founded.

I don't disagree, but how does that look adjusted for inflation? We might be seeing the pound drop as much as house values rising.




As above, not an issue for those with assets anyway, unless they got into the market last recently and will need to remortgage.

House price values are only important for those downgrading or selling up or those not in the market.

Those on the ladder it makes not a single jot of difference.

Tell that to someone who needs to remortgage in negative equity

Easy
Stay on the SVR if needs must. Plus even with 30% drops that would only wind back 4 odd years. And those people would have 5-25% deposit in there + 4+ years repayment.

So the remortgage would be for a lower loan on more or less worst case same property value.

[anonymous-user]

Welshbeef said:

OnTheBreadline said:

Cox apples in my local Co-op. 1.99 each. Not for a bag. EACH.

1.85 for 6 Royal Gala

Being on the website is one thing. They can say whatever they like but if there are none on the shelves then you're stuck with the expensive ones.

[Welshbeef]

Welshbeef said:

brickwall said:

Welshbeef said:

glazbagun said:

Throttlebody said:

UK property looks vulnerable to a serious correction. The dire and developing economic downturn will be deeper than in 2008. Bubble theory is well founded.

I don't disagree, but how does that look adjusted for inflation? We might be seeing the pound drop as much as house values rising.




As above, not an issue for those with assets anyway, unless they got into the market last recently and will need to remortgage.

House price values are only important for those downgrading or selling up or those not in the market.

Those on the ladder it makes not a single jot of difference.

Tell that to someone who needs to remortgage in negative equity

Easy
Stay on the SVR if needs must. Plus even with 30% drops that would only wind back 4 odd years. And those people would have 5-25% deposit in there + 4+ years repayment.

So the remortgage would be for a lower loan on more or less worst case same property value.

I just looked online now - randomly selected Lloyds and piped in our details and plumped for a 10 year fixes. Fixed rates were 2.23% to 2.46%.

As such anyone needing it now or within 6 months loads of choice and it’s cheap. Or anyone on variable rate.

Everyone knows what may be coming so if your not fixing… your either billy big balls confident dabbling in the markets or not aware (so tell your friends to save them cash) or utterly naive

[loafer123]

Welshbeef said:

I just looked online now - randomly selected Lloyds and piped in our details and plumped for a 10 year fixes. Fixed rates were 2.23% to 2.46%.

As such anyone needing it now or within 6 months loads of choice and it’s cheap. Or anyone on variable rate.

Everyone knows what may be coming so if your not fixing… your either billy big balls confident dabbling in the markets or not aware (so tell your friends to save them cash) or utterly naive

The swaps market, from which mortgage rates are derived, is better informed than you or I…

[Welshbeef]

loafer123 said:

Welshbeef said:

I just looked online now - randomly selected Lloyds and piped in our details and plumped for a 10 year fixes. Fixed rates were 2.23% to 2.46%.

As such anyone needing it now or within 6 months loads of choice and it’s cheap. Or anyone on variable rate.

Everyone knows what may be coming so if your not fixing… your either billy big balls confident dabbling in the markets or not aware (so tell your friends to save them cash) or utterly naive

The swaps market, from which mortgage rates are derived, is better informed than you or I…

I just went into the Lloyds bank website and put in my details “pretending” I was going to remortgage just to see the rates. Those numbers I quoted are what the website indicated.

[FiF]

Piece in today's paper on people coming to the end of interest only mortgages who, at least in ine case cited, were told by the bank to sell their house.

Now colour me an unpleasant person, but what plans did he have in place for repayment? None?

in that case, the house was worth 250k, and he just didn't have the 125k to repay the principal, and couldn't get a mortgage that could afford as too old and short time for repayment, so either sell up, in which case not sufficient left to buy something else, or do some sort of equity release malarkey, or rent somewhere, and he couldn't afford to rent a decent place either.

Maybe I'm missing something, but we had a part interest only mortgage, biggest financial regret of my entire life that one, but as soon as it became apparent that the existing plans for repayment were going to fall short then immediate steps taken to try and cover the situation. That wasn't easy either but another long and tedious story.

Suspect there are going to be quite a few more in the shoes of the individual mentioned.

[Welshbeef]

FiF said:

Piece in today's paper on people coming to the end of interest only mortgages who, at least in ine case cited, were told by the bank to sell their house.

Now colour me an unpleasant person, but what plans did he have in place for repayment? None?

in that case, the house was worth 250k, and he just didn't have the 125k to repay the principal, and couldn't get a mortgage that could afford as too old and short time for repayment, so either sell up, in which case not sufficient left to buy something else, or do some sort of equity release malarkey, or rent somewhere, and he couldn't afford to rent a decent place either.

Maybe I'm missing something, but we had a part interest only mortgage, biggest financial regret of my entire life that one, but as soon as it became apparent that the existing plans for repayment were going to fall short then immediate steps taken to try and cover the situation. That wasn't easy either but another long and tedious story.

Suspect there are going to be quite a few more in the shoes of the individual mentioned.

Why isn’t that individual using his 25% tax free lump sum from his pension?

Also maybe his/her plans were to downgrade - or maybe just bad luck and lived the high life.

Nothing to worry really

[Biggy Stardust]

ben5575 said:

Biggy Stardust said:

I'll argue the opposite. Near me there are badgers & bats- I've seen them & the ecologists camped out saw them too, as did various locals objecting to the planning application.

Someone in the planning department must have received a brown envelope as their existence was totally denied & a bunch of houses built. The council isn't just lazy & incompetent, it's also corrupt.

Note that the additional housing wasn't accompanied by additional supporting infrastructure.

This didn't happen.

At the risk of turning this into a pantomime, oh yes it did.

I can see the houses & it was my orchard that the ecologists chose to camp in for their observations. The conclusion is that someone took a bung.

Edited by Biggy Stardust on Saturday 21st May 11:23

[Welshbeef]

A general question here

Is anyone in this thread still on a variable rate or an SVR? If so could you give a reasoning for this given the headwinds of BOE increases?

I’m assuming there will be hardly anyone and most will be 5tear /7year /10year fixed rates.

[pquinn]

ben5575 said:

Biggy Stardust said:

I'll argue the opposite. Near me there are badgers & bats- I've seen them & the ecologists camped out saw them too, as did various locals objecting to the planning application.

Someone in the planning department must have received a brown envelope as their existence was totally denied & a bunch of houses built. The council isn't just lazy & incompetent, it's also corrupt.

Note that the additional housing wasn't accompanied by additional supporting infrastructure.

This didn't happen.

Ploughing over archeology or wildlife never happens ever. Obviously. Not any more.

As for the brown envelopes... certainly can happen, and I know that enough people thought that there was malfeasance in my local planning department that the staff couldn't get hired elsewhere.

Property development is like waste processing - it's not all bent, but you'd be naive to pretend none of it is.

[loafer123]

Welshbeef said:

I just went into the Lloyds bank website and put in my details “pretending” I was going to remortgage just to see the rates. Those numbers I quoted are what the website indicated.

Absolutely, but your post indicated you thought that Lloyds were getting it wrong and that, over the next 10 years, rates would be much higher.

My point is that the swaps market, on which this rate is based, is the current experts view on what rates are likely to be over the next 10 years.