Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
Dingu said:
f the kinds of things such as giving Ukraine aid, sanctioning Russia and condemning them pushes it to nuclear then it is inevitable anyway. It’s just a matter of when the line in the sand is drawn.
I'm saying those things won't be enough to stop the atrocities I fear we may be about to see.6pi said:
Derek Smith said:
It's similar in some ways. The USA did not want a missile base in Cuba, any more than Putin wants NATO bases in Ukraine. It was possible that the USA would invade Cuba to destroy the sites.
It was reported, after the event, that it came close to war. I see no reason to disbelieve that.
By installing missiles in Cuba, the USSR threatened directly the US at a time were ICBMs weren't a thing yet, thus breaking the balance between the two superpowers.It was reported, after the event, that it came close to war. I see no reason to disbelieve that.
NATO bases in Ukraine would be more of an inconvenience (makes it a bit more difficult to invade your neighbour) rather than a real threat to Russia (it's a defensive alliance, democracies are not very likely to start a war for no reason and Russia has a few nukes anyway).
So I'd say for now this is not as bad.
Unlike Russia, NATO has almost no nuclear weapons deployed to Eastern Europe. They've got a handful of B61s in Turkey and the Netherlands. That's pretty much it by way of tactical weapons. Russia has nuclear armed ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad, plus is about to deploy more to Belarus.
The age of land launched missiles being relevant has passed anyway. Submarines posted who knows where are a vastly better deterrent than easy to spot land based missiles. In the West we don't really have many tactical nuclear weapons because we acknowledge any exchange will go strategic immediately. Why bother?
Apparently from Twitter there is no agreement in the talks
👉 According to the available information, we do not believe that there will be a positive result of the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Signals indicate that Russian forces are preparing operations to encircle major urban centers, including Kyiv.
From here https://twitter.com/remilitari?s=11
👉 According to the available information, we do not believe that there will be a positive result of the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Signals indicate that Russian forces are preparing operations to encircle major urban centers, including Kyiv.
From here https://twitter.com/remilitari?s=11
This is quite eerily prescient so far from Alexander Nevzorov, a journo, saint and former Russian MP, from last April - https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t3qlxu/a...
The translation seems to broadly match the Youtube auto translation.
The translation seems to broadly match the Youtube auto translation.
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