Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
Tartan Pixie said:
Dog Star said:
vonuber said:
God knows what he went through in the first couple of days.
How he made the decision to stay and send his wife and kids away, that's a choice I hope I never have to make.
When this is over he will be feted the (free) world over. He and his fighters are an example to us all - I am in awe. How he made the decision to stay and send his wife and kids away, that's a choice I hope I never have to make.
- How 'Ukraine-washing' became the new gambit for embattled European politicians: https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/05/how-ukraine-wa...I think my favourite cynical quip was from a Norwegian youtuber - "Politicians are lining up outside Zelensky's office like hookers at the Moulin Rouge."
I do worry that the pedestal the world is putting him on means it's going to hurt if he falls off. It will be near impossible for anyone to live up to Zelensky's reputation in the medium to long term, especially if he remains as a politician in one of the poorest and most corrupt countries in Europe.
A brief history of corruption in Ukraine: the dawn of the Zelensky era - https://eurasianet.org/a-brief-history-of-corrupti...
One of a six part series about corruption covering each of the presidents Ukraine has had since independence. Plenty of links to follow on the off chance anyone wants a rabbit hole to fall in to but I warn you it's more of a mammoth burrow. The tl;dr about Zelensky is that he's trying to fight corruption and was elected on that ticket but has not been particularly effective, hence his low approval ratings before the war.
This is something I'm actually a bit worried about because if funds given in good faith start to go missing it will erode support, something that's quite possible in a country that was ranked 122nd on the Corruption Perception Index, worse than Sri Lanka or Argentina but not as bad as Russia: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021/index/ukr
Bearing the above in mind I decided to have a look at what kind of oversight aid to Ukraine has got and the basic answer is none. It's unclear to me what levels of oversight European countries have on their aid but America is leading the way by using the same model they presumably had in Afghanistan for financial oversight of the DoD, Pentagon and State departments: https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3487430-theres...
I think it's essential Zelensky gets any and all support he needs to fight corruption before the end of the war so that when the time comes for rebuilding Ukraine donors can give in confidence and Ukrainian people will get the benefit of that support. Fortunately there are two organisations and one situation Zelensky can lean on for support.
The IMF - In a surprisingly self aware move the IMF have been strong on anti corruption measures before supplying debt relief to Ukraine. Someone more cynical than me might suggest that this is because national industries have already been sold off so they can no longer recommend privatising everything before the judicial and financial institutions are sufficiently corruption free to do so competently and now need a mechanism for controlling the oligarchs: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/12/07/pr...
The EU - Ukraine has been working towards an association agreement with the EU since 2014 ( pdf here) but not really getting very far with it. There has however been talk of accelerating Ukraine to candidate status for which Ukraine will need help. The EU is nothing if not a bureaucratic powerhouse so I'm sure could help with corruption oversight.
The sanctions against Russia - Given Ukraine's historical ties to Russia I imagine that every bank in Ukraine now has a well staffed compliance department who've been very busy of late. I might suggest that Ukraine has some effective home grown tools for fighting corruption if the correct laws were implemented and that if Zelensky needs political cover then the nasty EU or IMF made him do it!
<><><>
Sorry, I did say it was a bit of a mammoth burrow. (And if anyone says mammoths didn't live in burrows then explain to me why their bones are always found underground - Checkmate palaeontologists!
)
One of a six part series about corruption covering each of the presidents Ukraine has had since independence. Plenty of links to follow on the off chance anyone wants a rabbit hole to fall in to but I warn you it's more of a mammoth burrow. The tl;dr about Zelensky is that he's trying to fight corruption and was elected on that ticket but has not been particularly effective, hence his low approval ratings before the war.
This is something I'm actually a bit worried about because if funds given in good faith start to go missing it will erode support, something that's quite possible in a country that was ranked 122nd on the Corruption Perception Index, worse than Sri Lanka or Argentina but not as bad as Russia: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021/index/ukr
Bearing the above in mind I decided to have a look at what kind of oversight aid to Ukraine has got and the basic answer is none. It's unclear to me what levels of oversight European countries have on their aid but America is leading the way by using the same model they presumably had in Afghanistan for financial oversight of the DoD, Pentagon and State departments: https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3487430-theres...
I think it's essential Zelensky gets any and all support he needs to fight corruption before the end of the war so that when the time comes for rebuilding Ukraine donors can give in confidence and Ukrainian people will get the benefit of that support. Fortunately there are two organisations and one situation Zelensky can lean on for support.
The IMF - In a surprisingly self aware move the IMF have been strong on anti corruption measures before supplying debt relief to Ukraine. Someone more cynical than me might suggest that this is because national industries have already been sold off so they can no longer recommend privatising everything before the judicial and financial institutions are sufficiently corruption free to do so competently and now need a mechanism for controlling the oligarchs: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/12/07/pr...
The EU - Ukraine has been working towards an association agreement with the EU since 2014 ( pdf here) but not really getting very far with it. There has however been talk of accelerating Ukraine to candidate status for which Ukraine will need help. The EU is nothing if not a bureaucratic powerhouse so I'm sure could help with corruption oversight.
The sanctions against Russia - Given Ukraine's historical ties to Russia I imagine that every bank in Ukraine now has a well staffed compliance department who've been very busy of late. I might suggest that Ukraine has some effective home grown tools for fighting corruption if the correct laws were implemented and that if Zelensky needs political cover then the nasty EU or IMF made him do it!
<><><>
Sorry, I did say it was a bit of a mammoth burrow. (And if anyone says mammoths didn't live in burrows then explain to me why their bones are always found underground - Checkmate palaeontologists!
)Edited by Tartan Pixie on Sunday 15th May 00:31
Tartan Pixie said:
Stuff...
Inc...
I think it's essential Zelensky gets any and all support he needs to fight corruption before the end of the war so that when the time comes for rebuilding Ukraine donors can give in confidence and Ukrainian people will get the benefit of that support. Fortunately there are two organisations and one situation Zelensky can lean on for support.
The IMF
The EU
When I worked there, funding for major projects at Chernobyl were managed through EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development), I know they were also in Ukraine supporting agriculture/industry.Inc...
I think it's essential Zelensky gets any and all support he needs to fight corruption before the end of the war so that when the time comes for rebuilding Ukraine donors can give in confidence and Ukrainian people will get the benefit of that support. Fortunately there are two organisations and one situation Zelensky can lean on for support.
The IMF
The EU
Even with their anti corruption policies and expectations, there was some, but mostly minor. So effective oversight is workable, but rolling that across the whole country and in places starting from scratch to rebuild cities and villages will be huge - hopefully the self interest of rebuilding homes will outweigh any attempts to slice off bungs etc.
llewop said:
Tartan Pixie said:
Stuff...
Inc...
I think it's essential Zelensky gets any and all support he needs to fight corruption before the end of the war so that when the time comes for rebuilding Ukraine donors can give in confidence and Ukrainian people will get the benefit of that support. Fortunately there are two organisations and one situation Zelensky can lean on for support.
The IMF
The EU
When I worked there, funding for major projects at Chernobyl were managed through EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development), I know they were also in Ukraine supporting agriculture/industry.Inc...
I think it's essential Zelensky gets any and all support he needs to fight corruption before the end of the war so that when the time comes for rebuilding Ukraine donors can give in confidence and Ukrainian people will get the benefit of that support. Fortunately there are two organisations and one situation Zelensky can lean on for support.
The IMF
The EU
Even with their anti corruption policies and expectations, there was some, but mostly minor. So effective oversight is workable, but rolling that across the whole country and in places starting from scratch to rebuild cities and villages will be huge - hopefully the self interest of rebuilding homes will outweigh any attempts to slice off bungs etc.
Furthermore, one would hope that the attractions of a kleptocracy have waned after Russia’s actions and poor performance.
I'm no expert, but I too would hope the collective national push to rid Ukraine of the Russian invasion would help also push out the "old" Soviet mindset (and ultimately how s
t it is)
We can see this in their military tactics, smart use of personnel for max advantage etc.
Their use of technology, and embracing western stuff like musk's satellites and using Waze for artillery fire (anecdotal)
The fact Russia have raped and tortured their ways through swathes of the country is also going to leave an impression too about their former Soviet neighbours, Vs how much materiel the west has delivered, and how effective it's been.
Ultimately, the political parts of Ukraine that were Soviet leaning have now got very little to lean on.
Zelensky can give a clear choice: does Ukraine look forward? Or backward?
He's still got to dislodge the Ukrainian oligarchs, who, by definition, are good at securing their position.
He's also got to cut the grifters from the system, embed a western mindset re: openness, transparency, accountability etc, but really, raise national wages and living standards, which is how you really get rid of endemic corruption.
If he can pull that off, Ukraine will be flooded with western investment.
Then I think EU eyes will probably turn to Belarus..but that's for another, later thread.
t it is)We can see this in their military tactics, smart use of personnel for max advantage etc.
Their use of technology, and embracing western stuff like musk's satellites and using Waze for artillery fire (anecdotal)
The fact Russia have raped and tortured their ways through swathes of the country is also going to leave an impression too about their former Soviet neighbours, Vs how much materiel the west has delivered, and how effective it's been.
Ultimately, the political parts of Ukraine that were Soviet leaning have now got very little to lean on.
Zelensky can give a clear choice: does Ukraine look forward? Or backward?
He's still got to dislodge the Ukrainian oligarchs, who, by definition, are good at securing their position.
He's also got to cut the grifters from the system, embed a western mindset re: openness, transparency, accountability etc, but really, raise national wages and living standards, which is how you really get rid of endemic corruption.
If he can pull that off, Ukraine will be flooded with western investment.
Then I think EU eyes will probably turn to Belarus..but that's for another, later thread.
Arnold Cunningham said:
How strongly pro Russian is the east of the country, in reality? Are they just Russian speakers but don’t care where their government is?
And how strong is their anti Ukraine sentiment?
Are we walking Cornwall, Wales or Scotland level?
Probably not the place for a proper political discussion, but east Ukraine support for seperate states from Ukraine was a Russian invasion ignored by the western governments. Russian control wasn't what the majority of people in the area wanted.And how strong is their anti Ukraine sentiment?
Are we walking Cornwall, Wales or Scotland level?
Arnold Cunningham said:
How strongly pro Russian is the east of the country, in reality? Are they just Russian speakers but don’t care where their government is?
And how strong is their anti Ukraine sentiment?
Are we walking Cornwall, Wales or Scotland level?
Surely the irony is that it is very likely much weaker than it was. Russian bombs and artillery don't discriminate who they are killing and maiming nor whose homes they are destroying.And how strong is their anti Ukraine sentiment?
Are we walking Cornwall, Wales or Scotland level?
jsf said:
Arnold Cunningham said:
How strongly pro Russian is the east of the country, in reality? Are they just Russian speakers but don’t care where their government is?
And how strong is their anti Ukraine sentiment?
Are we walking Cornwall, Wales or Scotland level?
Probably not the place for a proper political discussion, but east Ukraine support for seperate states from Ukraine was a Russian invasion ignored by the western governments. Russian control wasn't what the majority of people in the area wanted.And how strong is their anti Ukraine sentiment?
Are we walking Cornwall, Wales or Scotland level?
Dog Star said:
I'm with you, I think it's great, but it's strange how we view things. If this were Russians, we'd be taking the piss about them running around on clapped out knackered bikes like Olive from On The Buses.
If you are the underdog, you have to do whatever you can. A Model T Ford will get you across a ploughed field faster than walking
.Arnold Cunningham said:
How strongly pro Russian is the east of the country, in reality? Are they just Russian speakers but don’t care where their government is?
And how strong is their anti Ukraine sentiment?
Are we walking Cornwall, Wales or Scotland level?
How many people fled to Russia to escape the Russian bombing vs. how many fled west (either internally or externally. That gives you your answer.And how strong is their anti Ukraine sentiment?
Are we walking Cornwall, Wales or Scotland level?
BikeBikeBIke said:
Still talking about how to get troops out of Mariopol rather than how to get a connection through for supportArnold Cunningham said:
How strongly pro Russian is the east of the country, in reality? Are they just Russian speakers but don’t care where their government is?
And how strong is their anti Ukraine sentiment?
Are we walking Cornwall, Wales or Scotland level?
The easiest way to explain this in a British perspective would be something similar to hardline Brexit or Remain type of people. A very retrospective view of reality. A romantic view that Brussels or Nigel will make everything better, just give them a chance. And how strong is their anti Ukraine sentiment?
Are we walking Cornwall, Wales or Scotland level?
Nuts and bolts stuff at the moment is prioritised for the Russian Army, like food, money and medicines. What it would be similar to is the Labour Party in the UK of an egalitarian expenditure within the local state instead of privatisation. They view Ukraine government as capitalists, just ask Xymph! They will take the money and it vanishing overseas as a European, UK/US puppet government , where Jeff Bezos is after the assets of mother Russia, not them starting a war to seize someone else's.
This is not reality, but like so many things with politics people want the omnipotent leader to help them and normal people don't have a flag on their car or house.
saaby93 said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
Still talking about how to get troops out of Mariopol rather than how to get a connection through for supportsaaby93 said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
Still talking about how to get troops out of Mariopol rather than how to get a connection through for supportThey'd have to draw troops away from the current defensive lines, cross 100km of occupied territory, fight through the city, just to get to the steel works.
Aint gonna happen. Sad for the guys still there, but for UKR they were realistically lost once RU encircled the city.
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